How does the BBC allow someone to pose the question about immigration and pressure on public services? Complete xenophobic nonsense.

Because it’s a significant meme (in the proper sense of the word) in British politics and it’s a question the PM will need to deal with. If they’re going to wholeheartedly agree with the proposition, you need to know now; and if they’re going to completely palm the underlying assumptions, it’s time for them to spit it out.

It’s fair to say that intelligence wasn’t the first word that sprang to mind.

I was genuinely surprised with how badly Farage preformed last night. For someone who is reputed to be a man of the people who has the common touch it was breathtakingly stupid of him to have, completely unnecessarily, attacked the audience.

I know some claim that with falling support in the opinion polls for UKIP Farage is aiming merely to shore up UKIP’s remaining support and not looking at winning friends or attracting new support, but that strategy in itself is pretty dumb as the UKIP is only predicted to win 2 seats (exactly the same as it had before Parliament was dissolved) given its current level of support in the opinion polls.

They desperately need to win a significant increase in support, approaching the level they received in the EU election when they were the largest party, and the seats will start rolling in.

Farage seems to have given up weeks before the general election.

Farage shares a problem common to many politicians – he’s had very little experience talking to people who don’t agree with him.

1) The Plaid leader got destroyed by a student on Radio 1 earlier this week. Embarrassing wasn’t the word.

2) Farage isn’t appealing to lefty voters so attacking the event last night for being a left wing stitch up, probably won’t lose votes from UKIP voters.

3) The way things are looking currently no one will be able to hold together a majority, Stirling will tank off a cliff and we could all end up voting again shortly and be worse off overall.

4) Anyone know if Greece are likely to fall out of the Euro before the election? As that could shake things up somewhat. Still plenty of time for events to change the result.

Thanks for the advice Ernie. Oddly enough, I did read it. But yet again perspective is what is required rather than strangling evidence to create false points.

The main conclusions – little if any significant impact on employment or wages. Main drivers are other factors – really?!? Where’s the feather to knock me over with?

Better not tell Nige, he’s struggling enough just now.

4) Anyone know if Greece are likely to fall out of the Euro before the election? As that could shake things up somewhat. Still plenty of time for events to change the result.

I was discussing this earlier today. Grexit pressure becoming more and more obvious. Preparations to limit the damage are now broadly in place. Greek bond yields going north. So who, if anyone, would benefit from the subsequent volatility? Probably those with a euro sceptic tendency.

THM- I’m not confused thanks. You seem to be missing my point.

If one aspect of immigration is to drive down the wages of migrants already here then surely this aspect of immigration is a bad thing for the country.

@ben, that’s all deliberate to keep him out of the public eye for the reasons I said, he’s toxic in he UK. There’s no doubt he’ll be the leader/spokesperson of the Westminster SNP group. Labour are indeed in a tricky place, the perception they sided with the Tories in the referendum (hats off to the SNP for spinning that one) has been very bad for them in Scotland and any deal with the SNP post an election will be equally bad for them in England.

@dragon – Greece is unlikely to formally fall out of the euro by May 7th, not least as I think they will back down as an exit will be catastrophic for the country and not what the Syriza supporters want. Also payment timing is such they can probably struggle on a bit – they have been raiding private pensions for example. Things are looking quite dodgy though, story today that Greek bank subsiduaries in other EU countries have been told they cannot hold Greek bonds or put money on deposit with their head office in Greece in both cases as the risk of default is too great.

Perhaps, perhaps not. Its bad news for those concerned though.

But the evidence on immigration points – at the country level that you are interested in – to a marginal positive impact on wages. As in most things – winners and losers at the individual level though.

So we should be focusing on issues that matter and supported by evidence not UKIP make believe. Still we prefer to describe things as taxes when they are not, mix debt and deficit at will, and bandy “austerity” around with gay abandon. Is there an election on? 😉

dragon – Member

2) Farage isn’t appealing to lefty voters so attacking the event last night for being a left wing stitch up, probably won’t lose votes from UKIP voters.

Even when it’s pointed out to him that the audience was selected not by the BBC but by an independent polling company on the bases of a representative sample of British voters?

Farage was in effect attacking a cross section of British opinion, the British pubic in other words.

UKIP is losing support, I’m unlikely to be the only one who thought his attack of the audience was unwarranted and counterproductive. The principle aim of the party leaders in last night’s debate was to win greater support for their parties, “probably won’t lose votes from UKIP voters” is a poor justification for Farage’s outburst.

If one aspect of immigration is to drive down the wages of migrants already here then surely this aspect of immigration is a bad thing for the country.

@cbk it’s complicated good vs bad.

Lower wages are bad for the prior generation of immigrants. They are good for the businesses/employer in terms of lower costs/greater profits. Perhaps good for the consumer who can buy a product more cheaply if the businesses reduces it prices. Bad for the country in that lower wages probably leads to higher welfare costs and a lower tax base on which to provide public services.

Even when it’s pointed out to him that the audience was selected not by the BBC but by an independent polling company on the bases of a representative sample of British voters?

Who says ICM selected the audience on that basis and who says the audience applicants filled their profile forms in honestly ? I understand the vocal support for the SNP was quite strong in the room, interesting that given the event was in Westminster

Farage shares a problem common to many politicians – he’s had very little experience talking to people who don’t agree with him.

Like!

To be fair most politicians have far more experience talking to people who don’t agree with them than the average person. It kind of goes with the territory.

@daz – its very hard to turn these polls (where they ask around 1000 people) into potential results at the GE. UKIP poll 14% but will get 2-4 seats. LibDems poll 7% and will probably get 30-40 seats. There are some very local effects and in any case the polls require people to tell the truth about how they voted last time and how they intend to vote in May. That’s why this election is so hard to call. All to play for.

Farage’s estimates for spending don’t seem to cater for a drop in GDP caused by leaving the EU. Is there likely to be one?

Hard to say @molgrips, there could be arguments both ways. Could be a big uptick in corporation tax by declaring all tax treaties with Lux and Ireland void for example, extra taxes on online stores outside the UK ? More businesses locating back to the UK ?

I personally think there would be a drop in the short term due to uncertainty but all the scrambling around and re-organization would create an uptick in business for accountants and lawyers for example. Longer term hard to say as that would be dependent upon the trade pacts which would be negotiated, Germans are still going to want to sell us lots of cars.

That’s why this election is so hard to call. All to play for.

I agree actually, everyone assumes a hung parliament is a foregone conclusion but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if one side ends up with a tiny overall majority. having said that, it looks very unlikely, and in the event of a hung parliament, the tories are looking very isolated.

He must have a bloody boring time then!

I’m sick to death of hearing about this bloody election – especially as I can’t influence the results in any way and yet the outcome is bound to have some (probably negative) effect on me.

This. St. Helens North is such a solid Labour seat that they don’t really have to try. I’ll still vote but to be honest it is absolutely pointless. Shave a chimp, pin a red rosette on it and it would still get a massive majority.

Milliband was correct about EU if not for the correct reasons.

The EU brings tremendous benefits and remains our biggest trading partner. Its four pillars of freedom also bring huge benefits to the UK. Lab did well, ok Ed and Gordi did well, to avoid the € folly. That’s the bit that clearly doesn’t work.

We should be strongly supporting the EU along with its four freedoms of movement – people, goods, services and capital – and fight those who seek to prevent them.

I understand the vocal support for the SNP was quite strong in the room, interesting that given the event was in Westminster

So the nasty separatists had rigged the audience and bussed in some cheerleaders?

It couldn’t just be that people liked what Nicola Sturgeon said then?

What would William of Ockham say?

I understand the vocal support for the SNP was quite strong in the room, interesting that given the event was in Westminster

You really think the SNP bussed a load of stooges down to London and smuggled them into the audience? What would be the point?

It’s much more likely that people actually like a lot of what Sturgeon was saying. For ages people have been jokingly calling for a “none of the above” option on the ballot paper – well, for English voters, perhaps Sturgeon is that option.

I though they were talking about “spoiling” their voting slips – wouldn’t that be more appropriate?

The applause seemed more for the “get out of jail free” cards that were being offered.

I agree actually, everyone assumes a hung parliament is a foregone conclusion but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if one side ends up with a tiny overall majority. having said that, it looks very unlikely, and in the event of a hung parliament, the tories are looking very isolated.

Not impossible but it’d mean the polls are very wrong. Labour would need to do better than forecast in England as well as hugely better than forecast in Scotland to get a majority. A Tory majority seems even less likely although they could still be the biggest party.

Most likely scenario for me still seems to be a Labour minority government propped up by the SNP and LibDems – but with the Tories being the biggest party in England and the SNP being the biggest in Scotland. Be interesting to see how that pans out if it was the case!

What is the SNP end game ? Their ultimate ambition is an independent Scotland so how would they achieve this given some kind of supporting agreement to prop up a Labour Westminster government ? If they insist on lots of concessions/deals for Scotland and get them, then won’t that reduce the likelihood of a future independence referendum voting “yes” ?

Wouldn’t it be in their interests to be seen has constantly getting a raw deal from Westminster ? “We tried to get X, but Labour wouldn’t have it, nasty UK government”.

There was some talk of this in the “spin room” after last night’s debate, speculation that SNP would initially play along but then bring the government down.

Perhaps that memo was correct and SNP would prefer Cameron in No 10 🙂

SNP is in a bit of a funny position now. If they were to form an alliance with Labour, they’d be bound to represent Scotland’s interests strongly of course. So then the UK would end up with strong advocates specifically for Scotland, but not for the other countries.

So you might say a coalition should be formed of SNP, Plaid and.. the DUP.. but Plaid represents a pretty small minority in Wales and the DUP aren’t even the only NI specific party..

Right dog’s breakfast that’d be.

What is the SNP end game ? Their ultimate ambition is an independent Scotland so how would they achieve this given some kind of supporting agreement to prop up a Labour Westminster government ? If they insist on lots of concessions/deals for Scotland and get them, then won’t that reduce the likelihood of a future independence referendum voting “yes” ?

Not necessarily – the number of people in England who’ve said they hate the idea of “being governed by the Scots” might lead to an increase in public anti-Scottish feeling from within in England, which would then give momentum to Scottish independence in response.

At the moment nearly every possible scenario looks like it’s a positive one for the SNP – except if the polls are wrong and Labour manage to hang onto a majority of seats in Scotland and can form a government without the SNP.

The best pro-union response from either the Labour party or the Tories would be to embrace the SNP into a coalition if they do become the majority party in Scotland, and re-structure Westminster to properly segregate out regional voting e.g. only English MP’s voting on issues that relate to England only.

jambalaya – Member
LibDems poll 7% and will probably get 30-40 seats.

I was thinking the Lib Dems would be wiped out to single figures. (Previous election they got 23% of the vote and 57 MPs.)

What is the SNP end game ? Their ultimate ambition is an independent Scotland so how would they achieve this given some kind of supporting agreement to prop up a Labour Westminster government ?

I’m not sure it’s that complicated. Another independence vote is off the agenda for a long time, certainly 10 years or more. The next best option of devo max/home rule can best be guaranteed by a powerful SNP influencing a labour govt. If the labour govt fail to deliver, then they can start demanding a new referendum vote.

You reckon ? 🙂

You reckon ?

Absolutely. Even if the SNP were brazen enough to demand another vote as a result of a failure to deliver on devo-max, the UK govt would still have to agree to it and that’s simply not going to happen when the same people who campaigned against independence are still in power.

I say you lot “Debate me! Debate me! Just you and me!” 😆

ctk – Member
The funniest thing from the Debate was Ed saying “Debate me, debate me David, just me and you”

😆 What is that?

That person is definitely Not a PM quality.

EEewwww … “debate me, debate me …” Crikey …

Ya, from now on I shall call him Mr Debate Me, Debate me or Mr Debate me x2.

😆

wants someone to pull him off …..

Another term of Conservative government will finish off our public services.

The Greens are a middle-class liberal wet dream, all good and great in principle, but most people who support their ideas can afford to support them.

UKIP and the National Parties just want to blame other people (Immigrants, the English etc), we need less Nationalism in this world, not more.

So the only logical choice, albeit with a history of illegal warmongering and piss poor financial management, is Labour.

We’re really **** this time aren’t we 🙁

UKIP and the National Parties just want to blame other people (Immigrants, the English etc), we need less Nationalism in this world, not more.

Utter shite. Some of the people in England could do with realising that the bottom half of a tiny rock in the middle of the North Atlantic isn’t the centre of the Universe.

teamhurtmore – Member
Milliband was correct about EU if not for the correct reasons.

The EU brings tremendous benefits and remains our biggest trading partner. Its four pillars of freedom also bring huge benefits to the UK. Lab did well, ok Ed and Gordi did well, to avoid the € folly. That’s the bit that clearly doesn’t work.

EU is just a trading partner so I don’t see any reasons why you cannot trade with them if you want more control of your own border? Yes?

We should be strongly supporting the EU along with its four freedoms of movement – people, goods, services and capital – and fight those who seek to prevent them.

I thought you are an intelligent person but judging from your call to war “… and fight those who seek to prevent them.”, crikey you are not real are you?

I mean I used to hang around my anarchist, extreme left, communists and red armies friends they always do that … let’s prevent them this and that … let’s start a revolution … let’s kick those middle class out … let’s save the world etc …

FFS! Stop shagging the women and get some work done will you! I am not cleaning the kitchen for you nor am I going to keep the place tidy for you. (we shared a house btw)

Bunch of detached idealistic utopian womanizers … ya, all they do is trying impress the opposite sex and try to get to their knickers.

Guess what … they are so rich now I wonder where’s that save the world shite they used to talk about. I mean they are rich and they even do not want to know me.

😯

I mean I used to hang around my anarchist, extreme left, communists and red armies friends they always do that … let’s prevent them this and that … let’s start a revolution … let’s kick those middle class out … let’s save the world etc …

FFS! Stop shagging the women and get some work done will you! I am not cleaning the kitchen for you nor am I going to keep the place tidy for you.

Bunch of detached idealistic utopian womanizer … ya, all they do is trying impress the opposite sex and try to get to their knickers.

10/10 for the rant 😀

You should’ve taken a leaf out of their book.

Utter shite. Some of the people in England could do with realising that the bottom half of a tiny rock in the middle of the North Atlantic isn’t the centre of the Universe.

I think you just proved my point.

dazh – Member
10/10 for the rant

You should’ve taken a leaf out of their book.

Which page? I am not good at pulling nor am I good at “saving” the world.

😀