Viewing 40 posts - 1 through 40 (of 83 total)
  • Double dip recession?
  • thisisnotaspoon
    Free Member

    What will happen?

    House prices?

    Interest rates?

    Inflation?

    Wages?

    Surely with all the Tories money the last thing they want is a devalued £, unless they've invested it all in gold and bricks'n'mortar before sending the rest of us tits up?

    iDave
    Free Member

    uk is royally phucked

    alexxx
    Free Member

    damn this threads not what I thought it was about

    thisisnotaspoon
    Free Member

    I'd agree, but I've got most of a deposit for a house saved up, but a bit put off by the thought that

    a) interest rates could hit 12% (I'm screwed if I buy a house as I wont be able to pay for it)

    b) inflation could hit 15% (I'm buggered if I don't as my deposit will become worthless)

    And my CV won't quite get me a visa for Oz/NZ just yet 😀

    TandemJeremy
    Free Member

    Its coming for sure
    1) tories taking money out of the economy
    2) tories talking down the economy laying the ground for blaming labour when it happens

    House prices – static / falling
    Wages down
    Unemployment up massively – I predict 2 million more within a year
    Inflation to remain low
    Pound to devalue unless they put interest rates up massively – which will make the rest of the recession worse.

    Osbourne is an ignorant thick lightweight idealogically committed to spending cuts despite this being against the advice of the vast majority of economists at this point in the cycle.

    thisisnotaspoon
    Free Member

    "House prices – static / falling"

    up almost 10% since this time last year…………….

    (9.6something% IIRC)

    uponthedowns
    Free Member

    The pound fell well before the election which is one of the reasons we're not in a Greece type scenario. About the only decent decision Gordon Brown took was not taking us into the Euro like Blair wanted. Also get it right please the government is a Lib Dem Conservative coalition not just the Tories.

    ianv
    Free Member

    "Osbourne is an ignorant thick lightweight idealogically committed to spending cuts despite this being against the advice of the vast majority of economists at this point in the cycle."

    Amen

    TandemJeremy
    Free Member

    TINAS – but the osbourne double dip has not started yet. ( give it 3 months) Its my guess as to what will happen. The amount of money the tories want to take out of the economy and the huge rise in unemployment that will follow will take the bottom out of the housing market.

    epicyclo
    Full Member

    When the public sector layoffs and cutbacks start it is bound to have a massive impact.

    MSP
    Full Member

    House prices need to fall, they are still unaffordable for too big a percentage of the population, without signing up to ridiculous levels of debt.
    The problem is the house price inflation we have had in the past, not that they might now normalise.

    Junkyard
    Free Member

    what TJ said but they ahve a aptholigical hatred of the public sector. It is hard to see how reducing govt spending will help – though clearly we must balance the books in the medium to long term 3-10 years.
    To draconianlly cut money now will clearly reduce demand and have a negative effect on the overall economy- no way will the private sector step into the void and provide jobs proper fantasy stuff that. Negative growth and all the above will be worse than a defecit IMHO. Canada restructured during a boom and USA demand was high rather than when there was a world wide recession so is not a great comparison.

    Dont worry as the multi millionaiirre lightweight said we are all in this together …but many of us will pay a far higher price than others. I call it us and them 😉

    Wont be good for the next few years IMHO recession, housing problemsm, high unemeployment …much of this would have occured under labour to be fair but Tory policies will exacerbate this.
    The libs have no balls at all they have given up on everything they held dear about the economy so that they can be seen to have a working coalition. I am not sure this will help them in the long run

    IanMunro
    Free Member

    House prices need to fall, they are still unaffordable for too big a percentage of the population, without signing up to ridiculous levels of debt.

    House prices are not going to fall. We live in a small country with limited available housing. The only way that prices fall will be if you restrict lending, and if you do that then unless you've got a massive deposit you still won't be able to afford one.
    Maybe if we had proper tenant rights and a return to assured tennencies then we would have this obsession with ownership in the first place.

    HTTP404
    Free Member

    UK has one of the highest population densities in europe. It also has a tradition of housing ownership. 50% of the UK is owned by government, church, other public bodies and aristocracy. So land to build on is in short supply. Therefore, expensive.

    The reality is UK land is not going to get any cheaper.

    As for interest rates and inflation going to 15% and 12% respectively – I don't see it. The current economic conditions suggest a period of very low interest rates and low inflation.

    TandemJeremy
    Free Member

    HTTP404 – Member

    UK has one of the highest population densities in europe

    Rubbish.

    Edukator
    Free Member

    In most coutries the housing problems are solved by building more houses. However NIMBY and the green belts have distorted the British housing market since the mid 70s – since when the population has increased by X and the size of family units living in them has decreased by Y. There are only so many old petrol station plots you can build another eight homes on. Meanwhile the out of town industrial/ commerical zones have gobbled up lots of coutryside. Bizarre eh.

    bristolbiker
    Free Member

    Looks pretty dense to me…

    IanMunro
    Free Member

    Nah, TJ's said it's rubbish. He's probably biased because everyone's leaving Scotland though.

    TandemJeremy
    Free Member

    Nothing like the densest tho as claimed. That is the low countries which are far denser. Its mistaking the south east for the whole of the UK that makes people believe this.

    As for high interest rates – I can see this happening in an attempt to keep the value of the pound high. the pound will drop as we tip ack into recession – they they will anic and attempt to raise interest rates to keep the pound high.

    Possible but unlikely I say – generally it will be low inflation / low interest rates

    IanMunro
    Free Member

    Nothing like the densest tho as claimed

    Except that wasn't what was claimed was it?

    UK has one of the highest population densities in europe

    TandemJeremy
    Free Member

    given that Belgium and the netherlands are higher and Germany is the same then perhaps that counts as on of the highest – I did read it as "the highest" tho 😳

    Is the 3rd highest the same as one of the highest?

    cranberry
    Free Member

    Germany isn't the same though, is it.

    UK 641.022 per square mile
    DE 594.009

    joe@brookscycles
    Free Member

    I think writting off Osbourne as 'thick' is a bit arrogant really. I don't know much of his education/background (except he went to Eton), but I bet he's a pretty high achiever.

    He's a lot of things, but not thick. Just because you despise him, what he stands for, and what he does, doesn't make him 'thick'.

    thisisnotaspoon
    Free Member

    Short sighted?

    Ideologicaly challenged?

    Thick?

    TBH I hate the whole system

    mefty
    Free Member

    Osbourne didn't go to Eton

    IanMunro
    Free Member

    I don't know much of his education/background (except he went to Eton), but I bet he's a pretty high achiever.

    I'd thought I'd look up his high achievements on the web, I won't comment on if they are high or not, but one thing I did notice was that he didn't go to Eton.

    TandemJeremy
    Free Member

    Joe – apart from its obvious he is from the stupid things he says.

    For example look at what he said in the run up to the election – he kept on contradicting himself

    he also has never achieved anything except being Camerons chum. No proper job other than data entry and a short stint with selfidges.

    he has no qualifications to be chancellor except being Camerons pal

    kimbers
    Full Member

    im pretty sure a double dip recession is on its way

    big public sector lay offs and a lot of is gonna lead to a lot of unemployment

    and im pretty sure that interest rates will being going up up up, certain areas of the housing market(london) will be insulated from the worst of it but prices will crash and reposessions rise

    as for osbornes intelligence, he wasnt bright enough to extricate himself out of the deripraska debacle without looking like an amatuer

    richmars
    Full Member

    And Gordon Browns qualifications for being chancellor were?

    Garry_Lager
    Full Member

    It's ludicrous to call him thick in terms of the general population, obviously, but he does come across as unconvincing as a chancellor. It's a celebral position by cabinet standards, so you want someone who at least reassures you that he has some sort of view on things and won't fold or be pulled in 10 different directions.

    Saying that, an intellectual heavyweight would be equally as bad as Osbourne. Not the right post for creative thinkers IMO.

    Waderider
    Free Member

    I haven't noticed the first dip yet, and consequentially don't give a damn.

    joe@brookscycles
    Free Member

    I stand corrected with regards to the Eton thing. My mistake.

    thisisnotaspoon
    Free Member

    The first one only really affected my spending as prices went up in the 1st year, in its 2nd year it's frozen my pay, prices are still going up and now the T.ories are in power

    deserter
    Free Member

    2) tories talking down the economy laying the ground for blaming labour when it happens

    quite frankly who the **** do you blame then, 10 years of boom and about 3 mins after the boom finished the UK was in the shit, funny it will now be everyone elses fault for spending the next 10 years getting us out of the poo

    I think only the most biased of view could try and make Labour out to be saints in this whole situation, the older generation tell me that the tories had to do exactly the same the last time they got in after labour

    ps I'm not pro any party

    firestarter
    Free Member

    think im screwed mrs is in nhs im in fire service and we have two little ones in nursery ;-(

    Surf-Mat
    Free Member

    There is MUCH worse to come. Mark my words.

    kimbers
    Full Member

    the point is how are the condems going to reduce our exposure to global financial crashes?

    rebuild our manufacturing base?, invest in long term engineering and research? move our eceonomy away from financial services?

    i imagine they plan to raise a lot of cash from the big nationalisation sell off, whats left, nhs, the bbc, fire service, police are prisons already done?
    im sure that just like the last time, toothless regulators will be tacked on to make it look like the public will be getting a better deal

    privatisation is just like a tax increase, only instead of the extra money we pay going to the government it goes to the coffers of private companies eg the trains, gas, electric, phone etc etc all of which we pay more for than the rest of europe

    TandemJeremy
    Free Member

    deserter – this recession is due to global influences in the main not national policies. Hence everyone else caught it as well. Unlike the tory recession of the early 80s this time we suffered less than most similar countries. That one we suffered more.

    The issue is taking money out of the economy now. The vast majority of the worlds economists say it is the wrong time to do so – we will see tho if we go back into recession is purely the tory policy fault.

    Surf-Mat
    Free Member

    Here's what we need to do:

    Raise interest rates and stop being held ransom by an artificially propped up housing market.

    Stop importing where possible – especially food.

    Get our agriculture industry to a better state – they've been mercilessly beaten up over the years. We need to support farmers and use our own food, not rely of silly cheap imports.

    Throw our weight behind UK manufacturing – we CAN make good stuff and need to champion our engineering industry and export stuff – "British made" still sells.

    Stop our reliance on the finance industry – it's done us no favours and will continue to create a shaky "fake" economy. If it wants to move elsewhere, so be it.

    Never mind worrying about benefits or immigrants – they make little real impact.

    Become the World leader in renewable energy engineering – we have the people and the expertise but lose contracts to Euro rivals all the time.

    There you go.

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