Having bought my current diesel motor at the end of the pcp deal I keep wondering if I made the right choice. My worry is that it’s still worth a considerable amount but all this talk about naughty diesel, city bans, outright bans, etc may lead to a rapid and sudden drop in value leaving me well out of pocket.

The latest news that diesel sales have slowed considerably, the fact that it’s going up in price compared to petrol seemingly every week round here and the general glum outlook have got me wondering whether it’s worth going back to a pcp or hire due to being able to hand it back at the end of the term regardless of the market fluctuations?

The plan was to keep my current car until my wife changes hers in 18 months to 2 years at which point she will get a family car and I will get a smaller one to commute which will be hybrid or even full electric, depending on how tech has advanced. That’s still what I expect to do but does anyone with knowledge of the market have a steer on this?

In two years it will (I assume) be 5 or 6 years old so it will have depreciated quite a bit no matter diesel, petrol or whatever. The biggest sting will be dependant on the make/model. I wouldn’t be worrying about it.

chestrockwell – Member
That’s still what I expect to do but does anyone with knowledge of the market have a steer on this?

I’m going to guess that you’d have to be extremely high up in a major manufacturer, or in government to know exactly what’s coming. If you go to any large franchise dealership and speak to salesmen or sales managers you’ll notice they are all guessing, and generally the guess is based on what they think you want to hear or buy.

I’m going to guess that you’d have to be extremely high up in a major manufacturer, or in government to know exactly what’s coming

I’d suggest that manufacturers don’t know what’s going to happen either. You can’t buy a new petrol ford at the moment as they don’t have any engines, there’s a 5 month waiting list for a petrol focus. Manufacturers order engines a year in advance, ford ordered a load of diesel engines with no knowledge that the arse was going to fall out that market.

For me, the over-riding thing is always ‘do you have the right car?’ if you mostly do longer journeys – 30 mins or more and a pretty constant speed, Motorways, A-road etc – then diesel is right.

If you drive mostly short journeys, 15 mins to take the kids to school, shops or lots of stop-start driving, city commuting and the like, you really should have a petrol or EV if practical.

After that, well the new London ‘old diesel’ tax will hurt the prices of older ones, but they weren’t worth much anyway, 12 year old cars aren’t.

There’s a lot of ‘shock and horror’ about at the moment in regards to diesels, if you read the headlines you’d think any VAG diesel is now worthless, but they’re not and people are queuing up to scrap their 3 year old ‘dirty’ diesels to buy nice new ‘clean’ petrol cars, but they’re not.

The market won’t change much in the next 2 years, nothing moves that quickly and if it does, the cost of diesel will come down, the price is only high because we import it (currency issues) because demand massively out-strips supply in the UK, it’s almost as if we’re trying to get everyone to jump to British refined petrol from French refined diesel for some reason.

Current evidence – London is penalising cars built prior to 2007 / Euro 4. If we try top project forward then:

a) Today, you could own a 10yo diesel and not be penalised for general driving, only driving into Central London

b) Likelihood that will “creep” forward, so lets say using logic only by 2025, you be penalised for any diesel built prior to 2015, for driving into Central London.

c) Who would want to drive into Central London anyway, its a nightmare!

So other cities are likely to follow, but you can’t predict it. VED may go top according to make/model but you can’t predict that either.

I suspect you won’t be hugely out of pocket with your current diesel for a few years yet, unless you try to sell it in a period of uncertainty, as is current.

I went through the same thought process at the back end of the summer. PCP + deposit was going to cost me at least £5k more than buying the current car outright, over 3 years – for a similar spec/mileage etc. Obviously, I have the gamble around the warranty, but its a risk I’m willing to take at the moment. I expect this to be my last ICE car though.

Gary_M – Member

I’m going to guess that you’d have to be extremely high up in a major manufacturer, or in government to know exactly what’s coming

I’d suggest that manufacturers don’t know what’s going to happen either. You can’t buy a new petrol ford at the moment as they don’t have any engines, there’s a 5 month waiting list for a petrol focus. Manufacturers order engines a year in advance, ford ordered a load of diesel engines with no knowledge that the arse was going to fall out that market. [/quote]

Surely there has to be some conversation between policy makers and manufacturers though, at some level. The government could in theory introduce policies which would tank major manufactures/employers and cut their own throats in terms of revenue.

There was obviously co-operation when the big diesel initiative was brought in, hard to imagine there aren’t similar conversations going on now regarding phasing out diesels and phasing in hybrids and ev’s.

I mean I don’t know of course, it just seems unlikely that there wouldn’t be discussion.

I expect this to be my last ICE car though.

I truly hope the same, however… In say 3 years time, will there really be an affordable and sensible way of say, driving from SW Scotland for a weekend in Torridon?.

The Broadband issues in the rural north have been well documented for years, still seems not much is being done about it.

I’d love a wee electric Caddy.

There was obviously co-operation when the big diesel initiative was brought in, hard to imagine there aren’t similar conversations going on now regarding phasing out diesels and phasing in hybrids and ev’s.

I’d expect the relationships between oil companies and motor manufacturers to be more influential (to a point) than those with Governments.

will there really be an affordable and sensible way of say, driving from SW Scotland for a weekend in Torridon?.

There already is, just need to budget to hire a vehicle for such trips (or if you buy the upcoming Leaf you get 14 days petrol/diesel use included)

Surely there has to be some conversation between policy makers and manufacturers though, at some level.

Current ‘issues’ with diesels isn’t about policy really, more about scaremongering.

Thanks all. Yeah, I think i’m probably safe for the time I am looking at but it’s always good to be one step ahead if possible. One of the reasons for buying it at the end of the term was so I could get rid quickly if the market dictated.

By the look of things the type of vehicle available in a few years will have significantly shifted so probably better to wait. For the record I have a diesel 14 reg Ford Kuga 4×4 and the wife a petrol 65 reg 1 Series. I would be happy with a smaller estate but she likes 4×4 and SUV’s. It is handy for getting to mums farm house and carting around our two kids and lab. When hers goes back she will be free to choose whatever is fashionable at the time at which point I can downgrade. The stars just aren’t aligning yet though so if I changed now it would be for something similar.

where do you live?

Birmingham, Leeds, Nottingham, Derby and Southampton

are to get Clean Air Zones 2019.

I’m southampton based so a diesel is out for me. currently not proposing private cars be included but i’m sure they will follow. Shame they scrapped the cycling plan! 🙄

I think 2 years would be ok to hold onto it.

Putting in a LEZ in Glasgow in 2018 and here in Edinburgh they are talking about upping the parking permit charges for diesels, so probably indicative of everything that’s coming across the country.

I guess the other thing to look at going beyond the financial repercussions is that they are proven to severely damage people’s health. I’m quite aware of this living on a busy street in a city centre, same as the lat 20 years.
*cough cough splutter*

The Broadband issues in the rural north have been well documented for years, still seems not much is being done about it.

This is the bit that concerns me. Politicians and car manufacturers making decisions based on big city and their understanding of the world, not the one that many of us exist in. EDIT:and putting more car sales/profit before the real issues….

/optimists hat on
That said, I do wonder over the next decade if this change away from diesel, city centre congestion, growth of electric cars etc may also go hand in hand with a slow move away from car ownership…. I also suspect this will be led by business, who will start to lease electric, car share etc where they can on financial as well as environmental costs…
/optimists hat off

(I am keeping my oil burner as long as I can – its 11 years / 150k old / Euro3 people carrier, and If I can get it through the next two years, then I can downsize or even get rid as the kids leave home….)

Live near Leeds and have family in Nottingham so that would affect me.

Health part is a issue but have no intention of buying another diesel. The financial part is mainly due to taking out a loan to buy the thing that I expect to track the depreciation at least for the next year or so. Don’t want to be left with a car worth less than the outstanding loan, which shouldn’t happen as things stand.

I guess it’s a case of following the market (Which I already sort of do due to an interest in cars) and hoping I can change both at the same time. Which would be nice.

yourguitarhero – Member

Putting in a LEZ in Glasgow in 2018

hhmmm keep forgetting about this, still no map available for it. Also flies a bit in the face of “lets build shopping centres with big car parks in the city centre”

(I am keeping my oil burner as long as I can – its 11 years / 150k old / Euro3 people carrier, and If I can get it through the next two years, then I can downsize or even get rid as the kids leave home….)

This. Except I’m on 14 years and 233k now 😕

That said, I do wonder over the next decade if this change away from diesel, city centre congestion, growth of electric cars etc may also go hand in hand with a slow move away from car ownership….

Just not possible ATM with my commute and the logistics of children and dog. 🙁

All petrol here now and probably will get an EV next time around. I’ve had diesels for 24yrs but no more. I do think that the current negativity will have an impact on future diesel values but not greatly

We have a diesel Mondeo (2011) and plan to run it into the ground before replacing it. We have just done the first 100k miles, so I suspect we have a few more years to go. When I replace it I won’t replace it with a diesel, as whatever I get will be smaller and so not really practical for a diesel.

tonyg2003 – Member

I do think that the current negativity will have an impact on future diesel values but not greatly

Punitive taxes on the other hand…

For me, the over-riding thing is always ‘do you have the right car?’ if you mostly do longer journeys – 30 mins or more and a pretty constant speed, Motorways, A-road etc – then diesel is right.

And what do you base that on? My commute takes 1 hr each way, mainly on fast A roads. My petrol hybrid is returning better mpg that my diesel which was one of the most eco ones about.

In terms of OP to me it depends where you drive.

If its in to London/Oxford get rid now. If its any other major conurbation, get rid in the next 2 years as most areas are going to start charging for diesels to enter, or out right ban.

Leeds are looking to charge/ban diesels.

http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/drivers-could-be-charged-to-drive-on-these-five-leeds-roads-to-cut-pollution-1-8670138

Edit: Fact is if you have decided to keep the car after PCP, regardless of diesel or petrol, you pretty much have to keep the car for a while just to make it worth while. IMO PCP’s should be cheap and you walk away at the end.

In say 3 years time, will there really be an affordable and sensible way of say, driving from SW Scotland for a weekend in Torridon?.

As said – hire cars.

Just not possible ATM with my commute and the logistics of children and dog.

Not atm no, but that’s why he said ‘in the next decade’ and ‘a move away from..’. In other words, putting the things in place that would make it possible. Think solutions, not problems.

There already is, just need to budget to hire a vehicle for such trips

It’s not really realistic though is it, unless there is a company that hires out small caddy sized 1 person campers, insulated and carpeted, with black out curtains, that I can take to a campsite and sleep in there legally and with showers etc.

It’s all very well quoting ‘the end of car ownership’ as some kind of utopian fantasy, but the reality is that people, me included’ are far too reliant on 4 wheels, Though mines is purely for pleasure as I can and do cycle to work.

It’s not really realistic though is it, unless there is a company that hires out small caddy sized 1 person campers, insulated and carpeted, with black out curtains, that I can take to a campsite and sleep in there legally and with showers etc.

This would be a thread about cars and the issues with them. Campers etc are a whole other ball game

I actually own( quaint I know) a diesel with 40k on the clock and in perfect nick.

I’ll be keeping it in the family until it dies but buying a leccy car as soon as the right deal comes along.

Probably not a bad time to buy diesel they’ll still be ok for the next 10yrs and theres discounts to be had due to the tanking market.

Aye, I know, and in the interests of not derailing it, I’ll bow out.

Good point re city centre shopping behemoths mind, would be great to see the end of them, as well as the out of town ones…

Dunno how the Glasgow LEZ is gonna work especially as the motorway goes right through the city centre. I will watch with interest especially as family live in Renfrewshire/Ayrshire (I am obviously Falkirk so would not leave motorway). FWIW I was gonna change cars this year but have held off as I don’t want to drop a wedge of cash on a newer car I really don’t need (expect I could get another 5 years out my present diesel).

Think solutions, not problems.

The solution would mean moving near to work. Unfortunately that means a move to the most expensive town in North Yorkshire. Oh, and my wife would then need to commute the same distance in the other direction. Leaving cars behind is all well and good where alternatives are provided but they’re in the habit of stopping bus services round here, not increasing them.

Fact is if you have decided to keep the car after PCP, regardless of diesel or petrol, you pretty much have to keep the car for a while just to make it worth while. IMO PCP’s should be cheap and you walk away at the end.

Nah. Outside usual maintenance my car should depreciate at a rate slightly lower than my loan goes down and the car was bought at px price so I could sell tomorrow and not really lose anything. In the mean time I pay less a month.

The solution would mean moving near to work.

If we think in terms of our current world, our world will never improve.

A move away from car ownership would require a radical re-design of public transport. Which would cost a huge amount of cash. Which would require a massive change in the political climate.

Leaving cars behind is all well and good where alternatives are provided but they’re in the habit of stopping bus services round here, not increasing them.

That’s what I mean. I’m not talking about what they do now, I’m talking about what they should do in the future. This isn’t a personal dig at you.

That Leeds story didn’t actually refer to diesels did it?

As for the OP. it’s not like the car is suddenly going to stop working. And in a few years it will be close to worthless and due for replacement. I wouldn’t lose any sleep over it, just as I’m not losing any sleep over the fact that my current vehicle is a diesel van…

Depends on your role in the company.
I am involved in the conversations, and have access to all the draft documents, because i’m fairly senior in strategy and concept, not very many others have access. Because it doesn’t affect them directly.

Don’t know what the OP is worried about, still plenty of new diesels being registered…. plenty.

If its in to London/Oxford get rid now

If journalists read what Oxford City Council had said and reported it truthly they would realise there is a stepped period of changes over a number of years covering differing streets as it goes. The actual proposal is

NON-ELECTRIC vehicles could be banned from Oxford city centre by 2035 in what is believed to be the world’s first Zero Emissions Zone.

The new zone would see all petrol and diesel taxis, cars and buses excluded from six central streets including Queen Street from 2020.

That area will then be expanded in 2025 and 2030 to encompass the entire city centre, including George Street, St Aldate’s and most of High Street.

Finally, in 2035, HGVs will be banned from the same zone if the plan goes ahead after a consultation. accoring to http://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/15587372.Petrol_and_diesel_cars_could_be_banned_in_city_centre_from_2020/

The solution would mean moving near to work.

If we think in terms of our current world, our world will never improve.

A move away from car ownership would require a radical re-design of public transport. Which would cost a huge amount of cash. Which would require a massive change in the political climate.

Leaving cars behind is all well and good where alternatives are provided but they’re in the habit of stopping bus services round here, not increasing them.

That’s what I mean. I’m not talking about what they do now, I’m talking about what they should do in the future. This isn’t a personal dig at you.

I hear you molgrips, however…

– next week I am at work in a small Moray village for the day.
The only transport is a bus a day. I’m down to deliver 8 hours of training in outdoor learning (practical day).
To arrive by bus means an 8-10 hour journey each way, and having to split the training day into two halves and two nights accommodation (or drive which is 3 hours, and means a one night stay). I also need about four big curver boxes of kit, rucsack and another two boxes of library books with me.

Your suggested solutions would be good…

I agree we need to think much bigger – but some of the leaps in properly rural places, or because of decades of habit and choices, means MASSIVE changes to lifestyles, locations and provision…and some just doesn’t work…

I know public transport is inadequate currently, you do not need to demonstrate that 🙂

Plus you live in the sticks don’t you? Private cars may never disappear there.

If an idea works for 95% of people then it should be pursued for those people, no point giving up because of the 5% of people for whom it won’t work but can stick with the current solution.

But the political change there would be getting people to accept that some people can have something and others cannot.

In your specific example a van owned by the company for whom you presumably work would be the ideal solution – private car ownership not required ?

Don’t know what the OP is worried about, still plenty of new diesels being registered…. plenty.

My worry is that some research will appear or government decision is taken that means people decide to drop their diesels asap thus flooding the market and devaluing my car. Got a nasty feeling some really bad news is being held back. Rightly or wrongly diesel has now got a target on it’s back and the more stories the papers run, the more studies that are carried out, the more diesel is painted as the worst thing in the world, the quicker the message will subconsciously get in to the buying publics head making the chance of a wholesale and rapid move away from diesel more likely.

No huge fan of diesel and will quite happily move to greener tech but I could do with the current situation holding for 18 months 😉

Oh and I agree molgrips, i’d be all for it. Unfortunately the powers that be are to busy ruining any chance we’d have of paying for it.