I don’t know for sure but expect that, as we’ve been in lockdown and not much else to do but shag, the birth rate has increased?

Birth rates look to be slightly down on previous years, but that’s the usual pattern… a small drop each year. Economic security is a key driver for most people when considering starting a family, so it would be surprising if in uncertain times the birth rate did rise. Oh, and contraception is a thing.

bikeforfreedom
Free Member

If I’m reading this correctly deaths with no pre-existing conditions in age group 0-44 was 101

I think you’re not reading it correctly tbh- the figures you quote are “between March-June 2020”, not for the whole pandemic. Basically the first wave, and for England and Wales only.

But that aside, why does it matter? I have a pre-existing condition and I’m in age group 0-44, if I’d died I’d not be in the 101, I’d be in the ignorable however-many that don’t count because “they had pre-existing conditions”.

Diabetes, incidentally. I’m fitter than probably 95% of people my age, my condition doesn’t stop me living a normal life. I don’t count less. Neither did any of the people in my age group with a pre-existing condition, not a single one of them.

Pre-existing medical conditions have been an excuse to downplay avoidable deaths all the way through this pandemic and it’s disgusting. Not to mention misleading and dishonest.

I’m not suggesting that there is some sort of conspiracy, but in this case COVID19 was clearly not a cause of death. I’m sure that this is not the only example of this happening.

It doesn’t occur to you that while there may well be incidences such as this, there will also be cases the other way where Covid should have been listed but wasn’t?

Nearly 130,000 dead within 28 days of a positive test. 150,000+ have Covid as a cause on the death certificate. Pretty sure they aren’t all errors.

Pre-existing medical conditions have been an excuse to downplay avoidable deaths all the way through this pandemic and it’s disgusting. Not to mention misleading and dishonest.

I’ll hold my hands up that originally (like March-April 2020) I thought the deaths were only picking from God’s waiting room anyway but I was badly wrong. This ^ is absolutely correct – on average the number of years of life lost to each CV19 death is about 10, so 146K deaths means 1.5 million lives yet to be lived. Yes, many had pre-existing health conditions but they were being managed, lives were being enjoyed, and their deaths could in many cases have been avoided.

https://www.health.org.uk/publications/long-reads/one-year-on-three-myths-about-COVID-19-that-the-data-proved-wrong

Death rate at peak for all age groups in ONS data was doubled at epidemic peak. The fact that the death rate for 18-64 year olds is relatively low in the U.K. is good. But that rate was doubled by the presence of COVID-19. Twice as many people were dying as normally expected. In all age groups. You are welcome to debate their cause of death, but not the fact that they died. That doubling was brought under control by intervention.

In a vaccinated population with less intervention but fewer susceptible, there will still be an increase in mortality rate. The magnitude compared to normal is challenging. All the modelling does is try and balance the fraction protected and the increase in mixing. For a new strain that is demonstrably TWICE as spreadable as the strain we had last year.

When out like that, I think it’s a pretty easy decision to say we should vaccinate a bit more and. It mix quite as much.

[tl:dr] deaths doubled even in the younger age groups at peak. Balancing fraction protected by vaccine and mixing is hard, so precautionary principle wins out for something that spreads twice as much as last year.

So everyone is expecting a four week delay now? Yes? Here’s hoping that can be presented to the public in a way that keeps their support for measures. It’s down to the politicians now to present the “change of plan” (we know it’s not really a change of plan, the 21st of June was always the “earliest” date with lots of provisos, but trust me, a lot of people will see it quite differently) in a manner that doesn’t result in people giving up on measures too early. This needs to come from the PM, direct to the public, without any nudging and winking on the side via the Telegraph etc that he doesn’t mean it.

I don’t hink you can infect enough over the Summer to reduce a Winter wave, Sctoroutes. Latest estimates for France say just over 20% of the population has now had Covid in 18 months

@edukator

Can I ask is that “have had Covid or have had a vaccination”? And includes all ages?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/almost-70-of-adults-in-england-now-have-coronavirus-antibodies-latest-figures-suggest-12289249

As a comparison. This claims England was at 70% for Adults back in April. Tbf  I’ve not really dug around the source of that data.

It’s down to the politicians now to present the “change of plan” (we know it’s not really a change of plan, the 21st of June was always the “earliest” date with lots of provisos, but trust me, a lot of people will see it quite differently) in a manner that doesn’t result in people giving up on measures too early.

Should be easy; data not dates. As said all along. Plus – this is a one way street, no going backwards.

The data does not meet the Gov’s own four tests https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-response-spring-2021/covid-19-response-spring-2021-summary

[edit – new link actual Gov wording]

TEST 3:  infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS

– too soon to tell, infection rates surge is happening, hosp may yet but another couple of weeks of data will answer it.

TEST 4:  our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern

– while not underestimating this mealy-mouthed Gov’s ability to interpret ‘fundamentally’ to meet their own ends, I think any sane person would accept this has clearly happened. The scientists believe the assessment has changed.

*Should*

Of course, would have been a lot easier and less disruptive if they’d started to accept and message this properly two or three weeks ago when it was becoming clear, instead of ‘no decision has been made yet….’

Agreed on all most counts. Including the emphasis on “should“.

[ Edited, because I still think promising a one way process was a policy based on hope and boosterism, not an any scientific understanding of what might change. ]

So everyone is expecting a four week delay now?

Yes its following the normal leak approach to get people ready. The only surprising bit is it is the week as opposed to day before.

Was the decision not supposed to me made and declared today? If so, leaking it last night (TV/radio news) or this morning (the papers) seems like the same plan as always.

The only surprising bit is it is the week as opposed to day before after.

FTFY

Pre-existing medical conditions have been an excuse to downplay avoidable deaths all the way through this pandemic and it’s disgusting. Not to mention misleading and dishonest.

Totally agree. Every single adult over 50 in my family has some sort of comorbidity. But we’re all planning on being around for a few decades yet if we can.

Every single adult over 50 in my family has some sort of comorbidity.

Every child in this family. They absolutely should be outliving us adults without conditions (yet) by many decades.

Latest estimates for France say just over 20% of the population has now had Covid in 18 months

Just over 20% of the French population has had Covid according to Instut Pasteur. First cases December 2019, we are now June 2021 = 18 months.

30 million have had a first dose of the vaccine. There’s no data on how many have had both Covid and a Covid vaccination.

There are more and more vaccination slots on my app now, maybe opening up to 12-17 years olds will add a bit off impetus to the slowing campaign.

Novavax says its coronavirus vaccine had an overall efficacy of 90.4% in a Phase 3 trial in the US and Mexicohttps://t.co/cXkWe2YbHc

— CNN Breaking News (@cnnbrk) June 14, 2021

Just reading that Kelvin, really positive news at first glance although I’m reading it elsewhere

I’m hoping TiRed is proven wrong for a change…. 😉

😆

Actually, there have been lots of times that I wish he had been proven wrong… so I worded that badly! What I mean is, I hope they get this vaccine to market asap, it looks very promising for the world… (their track record isn’t, er, great when it comes to delivery, which is the point TiRed normally brings up when they’re mentioned).

Great technology with small flower like particles of spike protein. I believe we are fill-finishing at Barnard Castle. Ultimately global vaccination is a supply game. The need is so big that competition is moot.

Would be nice to see some U.K. controlled trials with new variants, but that’s not going to happen. The data you see is uncontrolled and matches digital records of those who test positive for different strains.

Great technology with small flower like particles of spike protein.

That post needs pictures.

So, this will get out to the public then TiRed, as supply will come with help from others, not reliant on Novavax? Sounds even more promising.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/14/uk-doctors-urge-public-to-get-fully-vaccinated-as-delta-variant-spreads

Bad news:

Public health experts analysed data on Covid tests, hospitalisations and vaccination status for 5.4 million people in Scotland and found that those infected with the Delta variant, first identified in India, were 85% more likely to be admitted to hospital than those infected with the Alpha variant, first detected in Kent.

Good news (well sort of):

Details published in The Lancet show that protection against infection fell from 92% for the Alpha variant to 79% against the Delta variant at least two weeks after the second shot of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. The Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine suffered a similar-sized loss of protection from 73% to 60%, again measured at least two weeks after the second shot.

Bad news:

The work highlights how long it takes the immune system to mount a substantial immune response to the vaccine. Strong protective effects were not seen until at least 28 days after the first shots, when the risk of hospitalisation fell by about 70%. There were too few hospitalisations to compare the effects of the different vaccines.

Good news (assuming it happens):

“If there is a delay, I think that will give us the opportunity to widen coverage, which is incredibly important for those who at the moment have only got one dose. It will give the opportunity to increase the proportion of the population with two doses, and then what we want is a period of time where people can actually maximise their immune responses,” he said.

[ Oh, I’m listening to coverage about the protest aimed at Downing Street on LBC now… before we get posts about the “mainstream media” not covering it. ]

Covid: Lockdown easing in England to be delayed by four weeks

Oh no, Johnson has gone for the new date (19th July) being a ‘terminal’ date, rather than leaving the government some wiggle room to extend if need be.

[ GBNews getting a question… that didn’t take long, did it ]

GBNews getting a question… that didn’t take long, did it

I presume they won’t have Channel 4, again.
I seem to remember that C4 have only been invited once or twice in the past year

Johnson seems distracted / half asleep / unable to string a sentence together, even worse than usual.

If it was someone else, I’d say busy week… but he’s long since burnt any benefit of the doubt I’m willing to give him.

Somethings up, when he first announced he said 4 week exit to 19th then Weddings etc go to 29th, so he slipped up there, then stating 21st later.

Anyway, Kudos to Chris Whitty again for making it bleeding’ obvious as to why we have to do this and what the impact is/isnt when Johnson doesn’t.

Can’t see the extension making much difference personally, we’ve got 10s of thousands attending football matches, people drunk inside, people drunk outside, unlimited numbers at weddings if they socially distance (yeah right), current measures aren’t working if keeping the infection rate down is the goal. Still Johnson had to be seen to be doing something, going back to pre may 17 wasnt an option, be interesting to see what opposition he gets from the press and his own headbanger back benchers.

Somethings up, when he first announced he said 4 week exit to 19th then Weddings etc go to 29th, so he slipped up there, then stating 21st later.

They chose a soft touch question from a member of the public, so that he could explain the looser restrictions for marriages… and he still fluffed that, talking about other generalities. He’s just not across the details at all.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57467051

This is interesting. My two kids (18) have just had a ‘summer cold’ like this. Sniffles and generally feeling rough for a couple of days. Lateral flow was negative on both. I’d expect to catch whatever lurgy they have, but neither my wife or I have had any symptoms. We’re both double vaccinated.

This is interesting. My two kids

Its is but its easily confused. My daughter – 8 – had exactly the same last week and I feel “off” today with an RHR of 53 vs my normal 46, but is that because I travelled far to do a 90 mins XC race in the sun yesterday, came back had a few beers and fell asleep on the sofa until 1am then slept badly upstairs for 5 hrs in the heat?

Maybe I should take one of jnrs’ tests anyway as I’m meeting a client on Wednesday.

The Delta variant of the virus that originated in India is 40 to 80% more transmissible than the Alpha, or Kent variant, we were told; if the final stage of unlocking had gone ahead in England next Monday, there was a possibility of hospitalisations reaching the same level as the beginning of the first lockdown in March of last year

From the press briefing, BBC correspondent.

So in other words, we are ****. Vaccination is in place for all vulnerable groups now, but the transmission rate of the Indian variant is much higher so we are currently in the same position we were in March 2020 effectively.

That presentation was one of the worst yet.

I am the only one that heard Boris say delayed to July 29th after initially hinting a three week extension would help, then he also mentioned July 19th but more so regarding vaccines. Allowing two weeks to take effect July 29th made a bit more sense.

The BBC news summary that followed confirmed July 19th for easing which was a surprise to me from what I understood from Boris waffle.

Why ease before the 22/25 age group are vaccinated. My second vaccine is only scheduled for 26/7 at 49 so I expect there will be a huge number of people still not properly vaccinated as the easing begins. I know a lot of people are sick of waiting but if their rationale is based upon the importance of vaccinations it still seems a few weeks too early to me.

I think Boris could have taken the news conference as a chance to also reinforce that the rule of 6/two families indoors rule still exists for another month.

So England is reducing time between jabs to 8 weeks now for over 40s. So my jab is now overdue, what do I do?

Well, I’m just going to rock up to one of the open sessions for AZ jabs at Halifax Piece Hall to get my second. See if there’s similar drop in sessions in your area.

so we are currently in the same position we were in March 2020 effectively

No, we aren’t. We’re in a much stronger position in so many ways.

I can use the booking website but don’t want to hit ‘cancel’ oh the existing before I can see slots earlier