The scenes on the beach and the other irresponsible behaviour was all predictable. Johnson knew what would happen when the relaxation was announced, but his policy is just to take a gamble that the worst is over. If he gets away with it, the public will be happy to have their freedom. If things go wrong, he’ll simply say “I told people to behave themselves”. It’s a complete absence of leadership.

Or its more “behavioural science” from Bummings.

Lots of people are clearly going bonkers, tease them that the relaxation is coming “soon” and turn a blind eye when a few go ahead with it before time.

kimbers

Will the beach stuff cause a second wave though?

Well some will go to the beach and not catch anything… they will be validated and not bother anywhere else.
Some will go to the beach and catch CV and then spread it .. some will be asymptomatic or have a mild “flu” and they too will be validated… they will probably use that validation as a excuse to then pressure and infect more people .. look gran we all went to the beach yesterday and we’re all fine…

Some will go to the beach, catch CV then spread the virus as above and die or gran dies but most won’t associate this with going to the beach

Dunno quite what to make of this.

Covid-19: MPs reject calls to routinely test health and care workers

Its Trump’s model, if we don’t test we don’t have any cases.

The vote on routine weekly NHS testing got even more intresting after the vote was rejected, an amendment to the Labour vote by the Tory front bench was then passed without “division,” where they self-congratulated themselves on the ~65,000 UK excess deaths since the pandemic began!

MPs are now debating today's @UKLabour opposition day motion on routine weekly Covid-19 testing for NHS and care workers.

Watch here: https://t.co/3vfq3MMdln pic.twitter.com/jeq5YAw7nl

— UK House of Commons (@HouseofCommons) June 24, 2020

Or its more “behavioural science” from Bummings.

As is opening the pubs for the first time on a Saturday, instead of a Monday.

Just thought I would add some info to this thread that I found interesting.

My wife has been in hospital all week (the third time in since lockdown started). Tested for covid each time and negative.
Today a Dr told her that they think her illness could be a result of a covid infection even though her tests each time were negative. He said “what we are starting to find out is that covid is effecting people in numerous different ways. You could be tested a hundred times and the result be negative but you may still have or have had covid.”

He also told her that in normal times 13% of hospital cases remain a mystery. People are admitted, they get better and go home but a cause is never found. At present that figure is much higher than 13% and is being attributed to covid.

He also told her that in normal times 13% of hospital cases remain a mystery. People are admitted, they get better and go home but a cause is never found. At present that figure is much higher than 13% and is being attributed to covid.

Taking Covid out of that para and this was me in 1997/8/9.   For three years I had the worst Gastro-flu ever in June of each year that lasted about 3 weeks.  It was so bad I had a special tablet I had to keep under my top lip which removed my gag reflex so that I could keep water down, and obviously I was just a quivering mess.    In 1997 just before the first episode I’d returned from a Malaysia work trip, therefore each yeah I was given a whole series of tests including Malaria which all came back negative.

It stopped and never re-occured again to date, and also to date no one has ever been able to tell me what it was.

I can’t believe this idiot.   Its no good posturing from no 10 using a strategy we all saw through six months ago.   Standing on a podium waving his chubby finger telling the British public not to be naughty and we’ll bring another lockdown on ourselves?

Step up you **** idiot.  DO something!  Be a leader and shut the **** beaches and deny the idiots the ability to make their selfish me me me based decisions.  For god sake man, no one listening to you you utter tool, because there’s never any recrimination for six pints of cider and a shit in a McDonald’s carton before a tussle surrounded by 300 other people on a public beach/street.

Huff.  And yes, I’ve had a beer, I could decide between this or the Boris thread.

Cock.

Is it me or is the 7 dat average deaths not going down anymore?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

3 day average looks even more troubling.

Come Tired reassure me its all gone by mid july…

Is it me or is the 7 dat average deaths not going down anymore?

Not in England

A little reassurance – when deaths get very low, then small bumps make a difference. We’re at the point where weekly reporting is now preferable. Perhaps with a weekly briefing. In week 24 (w/e Jun 21) there were about 300 excess deaths in England and Wales. London has been at baseline now for three weeks.

I can’t PROMISE it will be gone by mid July – in fact I’m not convinced it will “be gone” at all. But do not look too hard at daily death reporting data. And of course, one needs to be looking on a logscale for what is a protracted half-life of decline.

I’m analysing for pockets of transmission twice/week. I might update the global analysis later too.

Give us a reason why we won’t be looking at the current level of deaths, or higher… for the rest of the year, considering the, er, “advice” we’re being given now. We’d love to hear one…

I’ve been surprised we haven’t had an increase already, so perhaps I’m a bit pessimistic. But given that outbreaks are starting to be seen in other countries that achieved significantly better control, I don’t see how it can last here, especially as the furloughing is wound down. There is simply no mechanism to keep R at or below 1. The TTI is obviously pretty much worthless, it could be worth a 10% reduction if we are lucky, but I can’t see that being enough to compensate for pubs opening and then schools going back etc.

Give us a reason why we won’t be looking at the current level of deaths, or higher… for the rest of the year, considering the, er, “advice” we’re being given now. We’d love to hear one…

Given that everyone has said that this won’t be done until there’s a vaccine or a cure, I’ve been under no illusion that there will be deaths for the rest of the year, given the governments appalling handling of the crisis.

And it’s their handling of the crisis that is seeing the beaches and parks packed, and street parties kicking off. Lets not let them gaslight us on that. Short of martial law I’m not sure how a second lockdown could be enforced.

Be a leader and shut the **** beaches

The irony is that led by Boris we have surrendered to the corona virus on the beaches

There was a time when there were four endemic coronaviruses. We are not in that time.

UK is trending down, but probably to Spain/France/Italy levels. The US is in a different place. Sweden is still Sweden.

I think the US demonstrates what happens if you don’t adequately manage relaxation of lockdown. Their second peak (if it can be considered such) is now worse than the first one was back in April.

Just watching the footage from Liverpool, when the outcome of blokes kicking a ball around is more important than a pandemic, in a city more badly hit than most, what’s the point.

@BillMC

Worth considering getting a sats monitoring machine (50 quidish).

Yep, I got one back in March as part of my panic buying. Hopefully have no use for it.

Telegraph put a little vid together about beaches.

Benidorm vs Bournemouth

You don’t need to shut beaches just organise it (or privatise it to your buddies 😉 don’t just ignore it.

Course if you want to blame ‘the people‘ for not complying later on just carry on from the safety of your Warminster bunker.

Sorry about the earlier rant, it isn’t helpful.  I just got overwhelmed with anger for the first time.

I see the 14 day quarantine system has been replaced with a traffic light system for travellers which will be implemented from Monday.

This is about the fourth time that we have been convinced that large gatherings will cause death and destruction a few weeks later (VE Day, nearly 8 weeks ago; the first time people flocked to beaches, over a month ago; the protests, a month ago) – can we pick this one as the last one, and if nothing bad happens, agree that it’s now ok?

That would be far too sensible. 🤣

My wife has been in hospital all week (the third time in since lockdown started). Tested for covid each time and negative.
Today a Dr told her that they think her illness could be a result of a covid infection even though her tests each time were negative. He said “what we are starting to find out is that covid is effecting people in numerous different ways. You could be tested a hundred times and the result be negative but you may still have or have had covid.”

The whole testing things is a can or worms. People who’ve tested positive for the antigen, are testing negative for antibodies and more. It sounds like your wife could maybe have some sort of long-haul covid-19, I posted links to a couple of FB groups for long-haulers towards the end of the other thread if you’re interested in looking into it:

Have any of us actually caught the Coronavirus yet then?

Can we pick this one as the last one, and if nothing bad happens, agree that it’s now ok?

We could but that doesn’t mean there won’t be a winner from future events. Past ones being Cheltenham. Looking at what’s happening in Florida they question would now seem to be how far is the UK behind the US. I’m going for things going backwards late July / early August. With Funtime Boris (Playtime Fontayne springs to mind) we seem to have a man who hasn’t worked out you don’t bring tiddlywinks to a gunfight.

if nothing bad happens

People are dying.

Are they dying because they went to the beach?

There is very low risk from outdoor events. This has been clear for a long time. This includes being on a beach or an outdoor protest, unless you get really up close and personal with a lot of people for a substantial time. At Cheltenham, if there was an issue it probably had more to do with people shouting in each others’ faces in packed pubs and beer tents than watching the races per se. Same with big football matches. One of the reasons cited for not cancelling public attendance at sporting events early was that people would watch them in pubs which might be as bad or worse.

My advice would be to party on, in the open air, with a bit of space.

The problem with the beach/park/open-air party activities is that it sets an expectation and an example. All that’s happening is it’s reinforcing a message that things can get back to normal – including indoor stuff. Maybe this was always inevitable.

The evidence is lacking for direct attribution of spreading to outdoor events… but that’s a lack of data not evidence of no risk. Tracing contacts in offices, schools, homes, etc is possible in a way that mapping contact with people assembling in the streets, or on the beach, is not. When European countries shut beaches earlier in the year they did so for a reason, spread was still taking place even though inside gatherings had been stopped. I strongly suspect that USA states not shutting beaches are learning a hard lesson for us.

Anyway, I was looking at European countries for second spikes, as they are still a few weeks ahead of us in actions. What’s happening in…

Iceland, Croatia, Slovakia, Bulgaria?

Someone who can interpret data should have a look.

My advice would be to party on, in the open air, with a bit of space.

If people were just exercising and socially distanced it might be fine but it’s buying, dumping, jumping, shouting, pushing, crapping…

Rights and responsibilities are one thing but we just don’t seem to be able to grasp at the moment.

I don’t see big gatherings being somewhere that will lead to a direct explosion more just lighting the fuse on flare up elsewhere. Before anything that had happened would mostly just get stamped out by isolation / lower mobility. Now we have increased mobility and mixing opportunities.

People are dying.

Without trying to sound too flippant, people are always dying. This following comment may seem a little harsh and morbid, but IMHO, the Covid-19 epidemic has shown how out of touch we are with the realities of life and death. On average, 1,400 people die a day in the UK. The number of deaths in the UK that mention Covid-19 was 184 yesterday – that is fairly high, but the “Excess Deaths” value now is around zero or negative, so if anything, less people are now dying than average for this time of year.

Also, the overwhelming majority of people who die from this disease are already very old and infirm. 90% of fatalities were for the over-65 age group, and nearly 50% were for the over 85 age group. 91% had a co-morbidity, with the most common being dementia and Alzheimers. To me, this shows that in the huge majority of cases, this disease is what tips someone already near the end of their life, over the edge.

No, I don’t think that going to the beach is killing anyone (at least, no more than it ever has, when many adults commonly carry diseases that could kill an elderly and infirm person). I do think that lockdown is harming families, children in particular, and ruining the mental and social health of the population (specifically here in Wales).

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
https://old.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusUK/comments/hg8ae0/fridays_deaths_by_actual_day_chart_in_hospital/
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26 (see June 23rd)

I love going to the beach. Avoiding packed beaches isn’t the huge sacrifice you appear to suggest it is. Yes, there are serious negative effects of social distancing of all forms, but not having mass gatherings doesn’t look like it’s the top of the list really. I’d rather we limited those and concentrated on getting this virus under control enough for people to be able to see doctors, teachers and at risk family members and friends face to face without putting them at risk.

Avoiding packed beaches isn’t the huge sacrifice you appear to suggest it is.

That’s not what I said – I said it is probably harmless. People have already sacrificed their jobs, savings, houses, quality of life, and an entire summer. I just can’t get outraged over going to the beach, especially when there isn’t much else to do. Lucky for you if you live somewhere you can go into the woods on your bike and be by yourself.

I said it is probably harmless.

And if you are wrong?

People have already sacrificed their jobs, savings, houses, quality of life, and an entire summer.

And those people, who have been made to sacrifice so much to keep socially distant and save lives… what do you think they make of people crowded onto beaches?

We have already had huge gatherings that happened weeks ago, with no apparent ill effects. If I am wrong, then there is a disease on the loose so terrible we may as well do what we want anyway before we all die. I don’t think that’s the case though – as I pointed out in my first comment on this page, we can already build a good picture of the risks of this disease from the data we have.

As for those people you describe – I hope they are able to analyze the risks and rewards for themselves, and act accordingly. I hope those people also hold their government accountable for any damage to their lives they see as being excessive. Personally, I think the risks of this disease have become overblown, and that the lockdown started causing excessive harm a while ago. As I am in Wales, I am personally furious at the Welsh Assembly Government, which is (IMHO) seriously holding back the state of lockdown in Wales even further, to attempt political point scoring.

Lucky for you if you live somewhere you can go into the woods on your bike and be by yourself.

To make a comparison this assumes that either

1. The beaches are packed with people who are trying to be ‘alone‘

or

2. The beaches are actually packed by locals, not people who could’ve just easily have driven to be somewhere ‘alone’ in the woods. So lucky for these locals, eh?

And those people, who have been made to sacrifice so much to keep socially distant and save lives… what do you think they make of people crowded onto beaches?

And continue to make sacrifices. For a sustainable reopening of businesses and lives we only really had one chance to get it right? Rebuilding once is hard. Rebuilding again next year because of a second wave would prove impossible for most. Such a scenario would be a once-in-a-lifetime boost to the lenders, property-grabbers and crisis-vultures tho…

No, I’m saying that people have sat indoors for months, and (rightly) need to get outside. It’s nice if you live somewhere where it’s easy to do so by yourself, but for the people living around the South Coast, that’s not so easy. Your options are probably either a packed beach, or a long drive. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was mostly locals, it’s probably only a few thousand people on the beach.