We have already had huge gatherings that happened weeks ago, with no apparent ill effects

I’m pretty sure there was a small upturn in cases/deaths that TiRed(?) suggested were suggestive of being linked to VE Day and bank holiday shenanigans. Not a huge spike, but more deaths, and a delay in the previous downward decline in numbers, and hence a delay in me being able to hug my parents again.

For a sustainable reopening of businesses and lives we only really had one chance to get it right?

I don’t follow this argument. The point of lockdown was to flatten the peak – we don’t have any way to stop people dying of the disease, unless you think that lockdown should continue indefinitely until we do. The other approach I hear much-applauded is the short, sharp lockdown followed by intensive track and trace. I have yet to see a country where that is proving effective either. Even New Zealand is showing how tough that is to implement while allowing any sort of normal amount of international travel.

I have a theory that Westminster is secretly continuing with the “herd immunity” approach, and taking a gamble that here in the UK, most people who are going to be affected, already have. Yes it’s a gamble, but at this point, I don’t see what else there is to do. It’s not like any other country has clearly demonstrated a better approach.

It’s not like any other country has clearly demonstrated a better approach.

The numbers of infections, and the number of deaths tells me otherwise….

hence a delay in me being able to hug my parents again.

Hug your dang parents! Depending where you are, and your circumstances, it’s even legal.

The numbers of infections, and the number of deaths tells me otherwise….

Pick a country, and we’ll follow it over the next few weeks. I bet you choose Germany or New Zealand.

I have a theory that Westminster is secretly continuing with the “herd immunity” approach,

Captain Obvious, I presume? 🧐

The nudge and pretend admonishment approach could be genius if it was fooling the even remotely perceptive

It’s not like any other country has clearly demonstrated a better approach.

#britainbestatcovid

I don’t follow this argument. The point of lockdown was to flatten the peak – we don’t have any way to stop people dying of the disease, unless you think that lockdown should continue indefinitely until we do

That’s a very extreme/polarised/binary response to a straw-man that you seem to have constructed from my words.

Again:

For a sustainable reopening of businesses and lives we only really had one chance to get it right?

That doesn’t say or even hint at ‘indefinite’ lockdown. Neither my thoughts.

Captain Obvious, I presume? 🧐

Very good. I suppose you wouldn’t be any more outraged if they bluntly stated herd immunity as their goal?

We do have the highest mortality rate, but very shortly followed by two countries that prevented anyone from leaving their houses for any reason (Spain and Italy). Just behind those two is Sweden, which has very minimal lockdown, and the good ol’ USA, where you can still fly if you want, only has 40% less deaths per capita than we do. The link between lockdown conditions and eventual outcome is not clear.

That’s a very extreme/polarised/binary response to a straw-man that you seem to have constructed from my words.

If I mis-understood the final conclusion of your point of view, then tell me, what is a sustainable point at which business can re-open? If it’s just “less cases”, then what is your preferred value? At this point, we already have significantly less cases than the peak we were trying to flatten, so to me it seems that this point is as good as any to re-open. We have also been shut in our houses since March, and that situation is most definitely not sustainable.

The link between lockdown conditions and eventual outcome is not clear.

The link between timing of, and extent of, and success of, social distancing measures, and outcome, is very very clear.

then what is your preferred value?

Few enough to be able to track/trace/isolate new cases. What that number is, and what social distancing measures we keep, needs to be judged together with what measures are in place to track/trace/isolate. I’d make sure schools and workplaces can fully open safely before mass gatherings, inside it out, become the norm again, personally.

Would be interested in a source for that – it’s not something I’ve been able to find. Anyway, I’m not arguing that lockdown shouldn’t have happened, I’m arguing that it’s time for it be over. Especially here in Wales.

We don’t have ‘lock down‘. We have restrictions on movement and gathering. These will change, but not fully go away, ‘till we have low enough infections levels and suitable track/trace/arrangements in place.

Few enough to be able to track/trace/isolate new cases.

I do understand the benefits of that approach, but I have my doubts that it can be practically implemented. I have been following the news in New Zealand, which despite having 7% of the UK’s population, and apparently zero Covid cases for a while, is already having huge difficulties tracking and tracing.

We don’t have ‘lock down‘. We have restrictions on movement and gathering

At least in Wales, we can’t go anywhere (AFAIK the law here is that you can’t leave your house except for essential reasons, and then you are to “stay local”), or see almost anyone. Feels like a lockdown to me. Then again, IMHO the Welsh Assembly Government is turning Wales into clown country, where shops can re-open but children go to school for 3 hours a week.

T/T/I is a large task. Larger still if you have too many cases. Your alternative is…?

In general, I think you need to read more. Plenty of starters in this thread if you page back.

Pick a country, and we’ll follow it over the next few weeks. I bet you choose Germany or New Zealand

Given that so far we have done worse than pretty much every other country on earth when it comes to containing the spread of the virus, why do you seem to think the next few months will be any different..

But since you ask…let’s pick Spain and Italy, 2 countries hard hit by the virus, but still less deaths than the UK despite having less time to prepare first time round. I’ll be prepared to bet that any second spike in uk will be worse..

Your alternative is…?

There isn’t one, and we knew that at the start. The goal was to flatten the peak, to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed, and that is all we can still do.

You think it’s “job done”?

let’s pick Spain and Italy, 2 countries hard hit by the virus, but still less deaths than the UK

Italy, with the lowest per capita death rate of the three countries in question, is still 90% that of the UK. That’s pretty close, and I’m not sure what that shows. It will be interesting to see if they do have a second peak, and how it compares to any in the UK.

You think it’s “job done”?

Yes, the initial goal of lockdown has been accomplished. It’s clear that Boris is lifting it as fast as he can.

Iceland, Croatia, Slovakia, Bulgaria?

Apparently all up. Bulgaria particularly so (higher than first peak). Take a look here.

Number of NHS deaths continue to decline…

https://www.scribd.com/document/467148483/NHS-Hospital-Deaths

Number of new cases continue to decline…

https://www.scribd.com/document/467148549/Rates-by-Lower-Tier

Yes, the initial goal of lockdown has been accomplished. It’s clear that Boris is lifting it as fast as he can wants to.

Just to make this point again…

T/T/I is a large task. Larger still if you have too many cases.

As I said above, New Zealand had pretty much the perfect starting point for this (small population, zero cases, very controlled borders), and is already struggling. It’s a bit more than a “large task”, IMHO it’s not feasible, especially in a country with a population many times larger.

It is difficult, and people will be missed. But, not doing it means thousands of deaths or more stringent social distancing measures for a good while to come. Neither are preferable, in my opinion. NZ is avoiding both. We seem to think we can do T/T/I with higher numbers, by paying a private company to employee more people in a centralised system, but I doubt it scales that well in reality. By getting to fewer cases, and ramping up more localised systems, and maybe mobile apps on top of those, we could have a chance… we’re choosing to make the difficult even more difficult.

Is the size of the population really the issue? Surely its the moron ratio, at which we are ‘World Class’.

T&T won’t work if people are too entitled / stupid to follow advice.

As I said above, New Zealand had pretty much the perfect starting point for this (small population, zero cases, very controlled borders), and is already struggling.

Is it though? In last 24 hrs they had 2 confirmed cases. That sounds like it’s well under control to me.

Depending where you are, and your circumstances, it’s even legal.

Nope, it’s still illegal. If only one of them had died of the virus, then at least I could have hugged the survivor by now 😠

Pretty much every government in the world would love to be struggling like New Zealand right now.

T&T won’t work if people are too entitled / stupid to follow advice.

Maybe they’d be more prepared to follow advice if the people giving the advice weren’t a bunch of lying barstewards!

At least in Wales, we can’t go anywhere (AFAIK the law here is that you can’t leave your house except for essential reasons, and then you are to “stay local”), or see almost anyone. Feels like a lockdown to me.

No, lockdown is when you can’t leave your house, as happened in other countries.

Then again, IMHO the Welsh Assembly Government is turning Wales into clown country, where shops can re-open but children go to school for 3 hours a week.

This isn’t inconsistent. The point is you cannot be too close to people. So you can open shops as long as people don’t get close to each other (which is happening, or should be – hence queues and so on); and you can go to school as long as you don’t get close to other kids. This is why they can only have few kids in at a time.

It does make sense. It’s fascinating to see how people’s emotions cloud their viewpoint. They want to be allowed to travel around, and they look at England and think that the English approach must be right and Wales must be wrong. But what if it’s the other way round? After all, English policy is being led by an idiot.

Acting like “it’s over” will kill thousands… it is now very difficult for us to follow the path NZ is on, but we absolutely should be trying… the cost to the economy and in lives is huge if we do not. With current measures in place, we’re looking at another 30000 deaths. If we go ahead with further lifting of restrictions in July, with T/T/I and the contract tracing app both not expected to be useful ‘till the autumn, we’ll be lucky for it to only be another 30000 deaths. I hope we are lucky. I wish we had a government that got things done, rather than one which wastes money on its friends‘ schemes and just hopes for the best.

@morecashthandash I’m truly sorry for your loss. The effects of this disease and the lockdown have been heartbreaking. A friend of ours had her first baby, and their grandparent died before they could ever meet.

you can go to school as long as you don’t get close to other kids. This is why they can only have few kids in at a time.

The Welsh Assembly certainly is forging its own path here, recently ignoring a letter signed by hundreds of doctors, asking for the evidence to be examined with a view to scrapping social distancing in schools. I’m personally very glad our nursery, which can finally re-open, will be maintaining as normal an environment as possible.

I’m truly sorry for your loss. The effects of this disease and the lockdown have been heartbreaking.

You’ve completely misread or misunderstood what I wrote, and I get the feeling you’ve done the same with government advice – as have many others, as it hasn’t exactly been clear.

You’ve completely misread…

So I did. I read it that they both had died. In that case, go and hug them! The story I related is still relevant. My friend’s grandmother died during lockdown before she could ever meet her new great-granddaughter, and IMHO that is un-necessarily heartbreaking.

I think I have a reasonably good understanding of the government guidelines (certainly here in Wales, at least). I just think they are misguided.

Just to poke @molgrips one more time – the “what if the others are wrong” argument doesn’t really work. What if Westminster have it right? Then they could look at Wales and say “Why are they driving themselves crazy in isolation, and denying themselves family time and childcare, when it’s no worse over here? They must be lead by an idiot!”

Comparing the responses of devolved governments is interesting & throws up discrepancies, but a blanket approach would be wrong anyway
Wales has higher obesity rate than England & NHS in have different challenges, resources etc.
Obesity, poverty etc all vary between regions & are important comorbidities with virus.

I’d also say even along the south coast of Wales you have much easier access to outdoor activities than in manu parts of england

Two days in a row of zero deaths in Scotland, only 15 new cases, cautious optimism abound, although I worry about the masses heading north when the tourist trade opens up soon.

Fingers crossed.

It’s all getting better now. Wait…what?

Waiting for confirmation. https://t.co/YlADzO6LVj

— Craig Mazin (@clmazin) June 27, 2020

So whats the betting on a Leicester lockdown?

Longer odds than you would have got at the start of their prem winning footie season.