Saturday was supposed to be wet all day and today worse, but in fact the rain stopped by 9:30am yesterday, and today has been glorious sunshine! They might as well devote all that computing power to detecting aliens…

Doubtless seer TJ will chime into say one just needs to consult one's personal weather station and apply local knowledge but I have neither.

Don't know where you were yesterday but it was still pissing down on the Garburn at 11AM.

Yep exactly the same in N Wales yesterday and today has been bone dry.

Still I got out yesterday on the bike, and today I have been gardening.

So bit of a Brucie Bonus really as I thought the gardening would be in the rain

Don't know where you were yesterday

Farleton Knott. We had 2 minutes of light drizzle near the summit.

Well that's what you get for riding through fields! 8.30 in Staveley saw biblical rain.

8.30 in Staveley saw biblical rain.

I was still in bed then :o)

like indicators on modern cars, and life savers by cyclists ;+)

to confirm what happened as opposed to anything else …….

someone's in a grump today
😥

It was spot on for South Wales, almost down to the half hour. Rained all morning Saturday, sun broke through in the PM, nice all day today.

Well Simon – if you need to develop some skills and knowledge. Its all it takes. You aren't the right person to lead rides without this IMO. Its really not rocket science.

weather forecasting is all about probabilities anyway. Its not an oracle – its a prediction based on probabilities.

if you need to develop some skills and knowledge. Its all it takes

my experience, for what it's worth, is that the weather is too changeable to be usefully predictable, particularly in mountainous areas.

You aren't the right person to lead rides without this IMO

Luckily my hapless charges on the 60+ rides I lead every year have not twigged this yet :o)

I use WeatherPro on my iPhone. Usually pretty accurate, has satellite and radar, and doesn't use Met Office data. Not always absolutely accurate, but close enough to be useful. For long range I use Metcheck, who give a reasonable idea for basic planning. Don't really trust the Met Office, their computer model doesn't apparently include oceanographic temperature data.

Interestingly, my colleague follows the rain radar, which tracks current weather. He often tells me it's raining here when it isn't, and vice versa. So if input data like this is wrong then obviously the predictions based on it will be wronger!

Also the fact that different services give quite different forecasts implies they are moot, as obviously as they became more accurate they would converge 🙂

It isn't that difficult to work out what the weather will do. The problem with weather forecasts online and on TV/radio is that they are general. Learn what different clouds mean, and have a look at what the weather is like where the wind is coming from.

Look at synoptic charts – tight isobars = windy. Fronts = rain.

It isn't that difficult to work out what the weather will do

in which case one might expect the experts to be better at it than the amateurs…

simonfbarnes – Member

"if you need to develop some skills and knowledge. Its all it takes"

my experience, for what it's worth, is that the weather is too changeable to be usefully predictable, particularly in mountainous areas.

At the risk of continuing a pointless debate is that once you have the skills and knowledge it is easy to predict – no matter the area.

Many decades going out in the mountains, never surprised by the weather. Not once, Summer and winter, lakes and highlands, east coast and west. Its all very predictable

But then I both understand the probability based nature of the forecasts and I have some knowledge to work out what is happening where I am at that time.

Just because you don't have the skills, knowledge and experience does not mean others do not.

in which case one might expect the experts to be better at it than the amateurs…

It depends if you've got an expert looking at the same sky you're looking at. In most cases forecasters are using nation- or region wide forecasts hours ahead of what you need, and without taking into account myriad micro-climates. The climate is an infinitely complex system, remember, where things change very quickly. Get some knowledge and relax about it.

Just because you don't have the skills, knowledge and experience does not mean others do not.

it's just that they never get jobs as meteorologists ?

Luckily it hardly matters as you can still have fun whatever the weather – which is, I suppose, why I've never troubled to develop those skills – well, that and deep scepticism…

Many decades going out in the mountains, never surprised by the weather

you have my sympathies 🙁

I never take any notice of the UK weather reports – they're utter shite! Why can't they get it right like the Americans?

Do you recall the Surprised Brothers ? Imagine TJ and I on a ride. I'm jumping around amazed at whatever weather happens while TJ sits there stolidly saying "I knew that would happen" :o)

Why can't they get it right like the Americans?

it's much easier when you're in the middle of a big continent 🙂

It's a question of scale, specifically a mismatch between what people expect. i.e. people wanting an individual forecast for a specific location going to people concerned at national or regional scales forecasts.

Areas like the Lakes have incredible microclimates though. I've been bathed in sunshine in one valley while literally a km away it's torrential rain.
Try to predict that and you're on a hiding to nothing.

Try to predict that and you're on a hiding to nothing

exactly, and that's where much of our riding takes place!

I think forcasters err on side of caution ie. say it will rain rather than say it wont.
As for American weather channels they have the annoying habit of saying eg. today there will be 50% chance of rain ?
So is it going to rain or not ?

today there will be 50% chance of rain ?

lucky bastards! Here the figure is higher 🙁

#
WTF – Member

I think forcasters err on side of caution ie. say it will rain rather than say it wont.
As for American weather channels they have the annoying habit of saying eg. today there will be 50% chance of rain ?
So is it going to rain or not ?

Thats exactly the point – it is always a probability

it is always a probability

so when you say you've never been surprised by the weather you mean "It might have snowed or hailed or rained (water or frogs) or been sunny or a heat wave" – a surprise for you would be hard vacuum?

I don't really thin there is any point in continuing but a probablity is just that.

Are you being deliberatly obtuse? If the weather forecast says 50% chance of showers it means exactly that – you then look up into the sky and you can see if one will hit you.

I am not suprised by the weatehr because I pay attention to what is happening around me. The forecast gives probabilities of what will happen over a general area. combine that with my more deatiled knowledge of the particular area I am in and of my observation of the sky then I can tell what will happen. Its really simple to do.

Showers sweeping across scotland from the south west = dry in Edinburgh as its in a rain shadow. Easterly wind means either sunshine or haar in Edinburgh

50 % chance of showers means you have a 1:2 chance of getting caught in the rain.

Its really simple. Many folk I know do this every time they go out.

I check the weather forecast and pick a route accordingly. Warm front coming in from the south west – go north and east and go early. Cold front clearing in the afternoon – go south and west and go later in the day. Expect some showers to follow the cold front. High thin streaky clouds mark the fronts

big puffy clouds that look like anvils on a warm day – go early as there will be thunderstorms on the hills later.

It really is very straightforward.

I feel the same way. I had a trip to Arran planned for Saturday but we cancelled on Friday night due to "80% chance of rain"

Saturday wasn't all that bad, then today was nice!

If the weather forecast says 50% chance of showers it means exactly that

yes, it will rain or it won't rain. You don't even need seaweed to be able to tell that…

Look at a synoptic: Unless we are in high pressure or in an obvious gap between lows, it might rain a bit, so take a rain jacket. If fronts are going to pass over, it could rain loads so either plan a short ride or stay indoors.

If fronts are going to pass over, it could rain loads so either plan a short ride or stay indoors.

if you're a tart :o)

It really is very straightforward.

I've worked it out, TJ isn't a smug **** – he's just winding us up :o) It was obvious really, anyone suggesting turbulent, stratified flow over a complex surface was 'straightforward' would have to be delusional!

The fact of the matter is that we live in a country that has a chaotic maritime climate. There are a number of influences that are hitting our little island all at the same time (especially in a low) and the gulf stream causes our maritime weather to be even more unpredictable than most places.

We moan and gripe about it, but the fact of the matter is that they are generally better at the predictions compared to 5-10-15 years ago and we have much more information at our fingertips to make a reasonable judgement.

Often, it is about interpreting the info. However, sometimes as with in the past, you might take a flyer and get lucky. But generally, they will be correct, certainly more often than years ago.

I do alot of waterskiing, which requires certain weather and wind conditions. 10 years ago we relied on newspapers/TV and looking out of the bedroom window (nowhere near the lake and at 9am in the morning, not at 3pm when we would be skiing). Now, we consult the internet weather forecast local to the lake and it's pretty accurate compared to what info we had of old. Occasionally it's wrong, but not very often.

You aren't the right person to lead rides without this IMO. Its really not rocket science.
You really are a pompous tit aren't you. However, given you history of providing advice/comment on subjects that you clearly know hee-haw it's highly amusing.

it's highly amusing.

that bit about me not being fit to lead rides was priceless, I loved it :o)

proteus – Member

You aren't the right person to lead rides without this IMO. Its really not rocket science.
You really are a pompous **** aren't you. However, given you history of providing advice/comment on subjects that you clearly know hee-haw it's highly amusing.

Oh really – get her. Saucer of cream for table one.

Of course it was overstated for comic effect.

However the basic thrust is true. Reading what is happening over the next few hours with the weather is easy using the general situation from the forecast combined with your own knowledge and simply looking at the sky. To my mind its a basic skill for going out in the mountains to be able to read the weather. Its a basic part of mountaincraft.

You may chose to believe its not possible. Up to you. Simply because you don't agree with you does not mean I am wrong.

virtually anything I post I can back up with solid facts – when shown I am wrong I will say so. Opinions are different – they are like anuses – every bums got one

I'm interested in this thing about the Americans getting the weather right while the Met office don't. Is that their weather that they get right, or our weather? The GFS model which is freely available and consequently what all the internet forecasts channel is pretty imprecise. The Met Office would be my choice every time. It helps if you understand weather systems i.e. synoptic charts, lows and highs etc. then you can see how predictable or otherwise the weather forecast is on any day. It's gonna be nice tomorrow. Though not up north obviously.

he's doing it again 🙂