What happens though if/when Ukraine pushed the Russians back across their border ?.

Do they leave it at that, reinforce the border, or push forward and into Russia itself.

Anyone seen reports that Russia has started a full on second offensive?

Yep, it’s the top story on the guardian at the mo

What happens though if/when Ukraine pushed the Russians back across their border ?.

Do they leave it at that, reinforce the border, or push forward and into Russia itself.

I would think they stop there as they’ve always said they’re defending their territory, not invading.

Next step would be ultrafast track to NATO to protect their border.

Elon musk really is a Grade a unt  if he has switched off starlink

Roger Waters: just another prick in the war.

Elon is a merchant banker.

Considering eh? Guess they don’t want to rush it and get the wrong answer.

France to consider stripping Russia's President Vladimir Putin of Legion d'Honneur award https://t.co/xnZtNXALdL

— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) February 10, 2023

The Saab Draken or Viggen was being touted as the best suited but in reality i think its years from  them being painted blue and yellow.

isn’t that their default colour scheme?

Neither the Draken nor the Viggen have been in service for over 15 years now, perhaps it’s the Gripen that’s been suggested? It’s unlikely that there’s more than a tiny number of Draken and Viggens still flying, if any.

Sounds like Russia are throwing more men into the meat grinder

The Grey Zone channel directs its anger at VVO commander Rustam Muradov for the failed assault in Vuhledar. They suggest Wagner hates him for his actions in Syria, and that there have been cases of Russian fighters fragging commanders in Ukraine.https://t.co/Uk4odyssJ1 pic.twitter.com/UW2PEyEtGd

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) February 10, 2023

Things aren't going well for Russians in Vuheldar, are they, when Khodakovsky has "nothing to say" and GREY ZONE says it's because in Vuhledar a complete **** is happening with Russians losing 30 vehicles, burning tankmen running, and BMPs running over own troops. pic.twitter.com/nLjbkpgCh2

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) February 9, 2023

Yep, RF disaster trying to take Vuhledar.  30 AFVs destroyed, and some UF sources on Twitter saying 200 killed.  Reuters link on the loss of armour.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-likely-lost-dozens-tanks-failed-attack-vuhledar-uk-2023-02-10/

This is also at Vuhledar, not sure if these are the same vehicles.  Doing a bit of dynamic mine clearance.

Russian tanks and APCs are demanding a dense minefield in Vuhledar, Donetsk pic.twitter.com/QremNtUYQy

— Terrorussia (@putinslies) February 10, 2023

Yes -if this is the new Russian offensive, it’s a complete shit show.

 perhaps it’s the Gripen that’s been suggested?

Yes. There was a good Twitter thread on this last year, running through the realistic options. Needs a modern radar and long-range AA missiles. Being able to use short airstrips or roads would be a bonus. Gripen was rated the best available option.

“Dynamic mine clearance ”

Jeebus

IN 1944 we had flail tanks to clear mines on the beaches .

Have the Russians not studied that bit in Tank school ? Its  all abit WW1 / WW2 with the generals thinking numbers will prevail .

When modern defenders can repulse a combined assult with significantly fewer men . Unless you can very accuratly barrage your way forward with artillery , then Armour backed with trained commmited ground troops driving across a minefeild is probably only going to go badly for you.

” over the top lads , this is it , the big push ” All abit Blackadder and Cpt Darling , wonder if they used a bugle as well, or was that the NVA?

“>When modern defenders can repulse a combined assult with significantly fewer men </span>

One thing I didn’t realise is that Ukriane has had a numerical throughout the conflict so far. At least accirding to the one source that I’ve seen

The Russians do have mine clearance vehicles, similar to the British Army Python (or Giant Viper when I served). A vehicle mounted rocket which tows a flexible pipe a few hundred metres long full of explosive. This detonates causing any mines beneath it to function. There are videos of Russia using them earlier in the conflict. Not as per their intended use, but to destroy buildings or attack Ukrainian personnel. Now when they would be really useful, they don’t seem to have them. Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

https://twitter.com/rammstein_fella/status/1624058038192599042?t=feS8qM4sLZvAw1k07bI4yg&s=19

^^^ There seems to be a consensus elsewhere on Twitter that the above video clip is at a range or training area somewhere.  There is what looks to be an observation platform or range control tower at the top of the slope at the start. May or may not be, but I think it’s wise to cast a sceptical eye over some Twitter stuff. I’m 100% behind Ukraine, but they are past masters at info ops!

I did mean to post ot was unusual for them considering.

But the dog decided to interact do it didnt happen.

Russia is fighting for “survival” do you think they will give up?

If Russia loses this war there will be “no more” Russia and perhaps their alliance, they all know that.

Russia is fighting for Putin’s survival. There is zero chance of Russia disappearing if/when this war comes to end, however it ends.

Russia is fighting for “survival”

How? Russia is the largest country in the world, but that’s not enough for it. It is fighting to steal the territory and assets of a sovereign country because it’s a corrupt kleptocropsy and an imperial throwback. A sovereign country they thought would be a pushover – wrong. They thought the world would turn a blind eye – wrong. If this is the undoing of the Russian Federation and I hope it is, then they have no one to blame but themselves.

<span style=”font-family: Roboto, ‘Helvetica Neue’, Arial, ‘Noto Sans’, sans-serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, ‘Segoe UI’, ‘Apple Color Emoji’, ‘Segoe UI Emoji’, ‘Segoe UI Symbol’, ‘Noto Color Emoji’; font-size: 16px; background-color: #eeeeee;”>How? Russia is the largest country in the world, but that’s not enough for it. It is fighting to steal the territory and assets of a sovereign country because it’s a corrupt kleptocropsy and an imperial throwback. A sovereign country they thought would be a pushover – wrong. They thought the world would turn a blind eye – wrong. If this is the undoing of the Russian Federation and I hope it is, then they have no one to blame but themselves.</span>

Nicely put

“How? Russia is the largest country in the world, but that’s not enough for it. It is fighting to steal the territory and assets of a sovereign country because it’s a corrupt kleptocropsy and an imperial throwback. A sovereign country they thought would be a pushover – wrong. They thought the world would turn a blind eye – wrong. If this is the undoing of the Russian Federation and I hope it is, then they have no one to blame but themselves.”

Nicely put

Its utterly delusional to think Russia will cease to exist if they lose in Ukraine.

Far FAR more likely is Putin loses and they replace him with some other arsehole. Ask the Tsar…

Its utterly delusional to think Russia will cease to exist if they lose in Ukraine.

I agree, but it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that the Russian Federation might lose a few less than fully committed members.

Far FAR more likely is Putin loses and they replace him with some other arsehole. Ask the Tsar…

You want that to continue? i.e. for him to be replaced by someone with the same caliber or worse?  What will the end look like?

What will the end look like?

I’m afraid that’s for the people of Russia to sort out. I don’t envy them, and have no idea how they can improve things. It’s not by invading other countries though.

Russia is fighting for “survival” do you think they will give up?

If Russia loses this war there will be “no more” Russia and perhaps their alliance, they all know that.

Putin is a fascist. The core of fascism is that the nation and leader are seen as the same. The nation is seen as a family, the leader as the father. Any threat to the leader is portrayed as an existential threat to the nation. Losing the war is an existential threat to the Putin regime. In Putin’s mind, and the minds of his followers, a threat to his regime is an existential threat to the survival of Russia. Putin won’t admit defeat and sign a peace treaty because that would be the end of the Putin regime. This is why notions of an “off ramp” for Putin shouldn’t be taken seriously – to him, a peace treaty with Ukraine would be an admission of defeat, which would be an existential threat to his regime.

However, in real life, Russia will still be there long after Putin is dead and buried.

Oh look the trolls back🤷‍♂️ please don’t feed it! 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

What will the end look like?

I don’t know, but I’ve waited 10 months for this claim of yours to come true. I’m convinced that I can still buy them locally for half that, unless I go to a restaurant

I foresee Fish & Chips (my favourite) will cost £15 or even £20 in some places. All due to shortages couple with other increases etc. Not good. (p164 of this thread)

Apologies for a tangential reply…

Ha, never make predictions!  It’s quite interesting to re-read the first few pages of this thread for some spectacularly bad takes. My favourite was a suggestion (not from our fish price predictor) that we would be better off siding with the Russians in the conflict not the evil US, because they are in Europe!

LOL, I definitely have plenty of bad takes and even more posts I should have checked out the sources better.

Although

I reckon all the former Warsaw pact counties might feel a little uneasy, pity they don’t club together and tell the Russian bully to do one.

Isn’t that far off what’s happened, notable exceptions aside.

I reckon all the former Warsaw pact counties might feel a little uneasy, pity they don’t club together and tell the Russian bully to do one.

Isn’t that far off what’s happened, notable exceptions aside.

Pretty much. All the countries that Russia views as its “sphere of influence” hate Russia and want to see it defeated militarily.

but they all have vociferous pro-russian/expat minority to deal with… especially estonia latvia and lithuania,

but they all have vociferous pro-russian/expat minority to deal with… especially estonia latvia and lithuania,

I’m genuinely curious about whether the pro-Russian groups in former Soviet states have faded since the invasion. Having seen what has happened in eastern Ukraine, with the population issued Russian passports but then denied entry into Russia when they tried to flee there to escape the Ukrainian counter-offensive, it’s possible that a fair number might have changed their views.  Would be interesting to see some actual survey data though, people aren’t always as rational as we assume.