Ukraine

Deffo game changing from what I’ve read. Trent Telenko (of trucks fame) has done a really good thread on this recently, about the obsolescence of both Ukrainian and Russian artillery kit (fuses in particular). Also a massive advantage will come from radars which accurately track where artillery is fired from, so that you can then send your laser guided shells back that way.

It looks like it is now a race between Russia capturing more ground and the Ukrainians being trained up and having delivered the new kit to where it’s needed. If they can get it there in time then Russia will suffer very badly, but of course will do huge damage in the meantime…

It seems like a big thing for a very narrow but important reason... Up til now, the ukrainians have been able to counter a lot of russian efforts but they don't have much response against indiscriminate shelling... which is also something that the russians are keen on, and well equipped to do since it's cheap and terrifying and lets them score "wins" and punish ukraine for resisting. Basically ukraine have countered much of the actual effective warfighting but can't stop the brutality

If the counterbattery capability can stop russia from battering towns to bits out of pure malice, that's not going to win the war but it's going to make things a lot happier for ukraine.

If the counterbattery capability can stop russia from battering towns to bits out of pure malice, that’s not going to win the war

It might. If they can't lob shells without being blown up, what have they got left?

Also a massive advantage will come from radars which accurately track where artillery is fired from, so that you can then send your laser guided shells back that way.

If you are already pointing a laser at them you dont need a radar to tell you where they are.
The counter-battery radar is used in its own right to provide a target grid for your artillery although, unless you are Russian, if it looks in a civilian area its probably best not to rely on it.
There are the gps guided shells for accuracy at long range though.

The Russians also have counter battery setups, so the Ukrainians will either have to shoot and scoot or have longer range. Shoot and scoot has been the normal way of operating for a long while - prepare multiple positions, use once and move. That's one of the reasons that tracked artillery took over from towed (except for special cases like air mobile). Having said that, towed artillery is easier to operate.

Looks like lots of supplies incoming from the US, 155mm howitzers, towing/supply vehicles, anti tank and air defence, as well as those 'drones', which sound more like loitering munitions, it's good that Ukraine are being supplied, but the flip side is that it will mean more death and destruction on both sides, this really is turning into a real entrenched battle and i just don't see a good ending for either side, hopefully those wanting to leave can find safety, even more hopeful, Russia has some rethink or reorganisation that allows a less destructive ending.

If the counterbattery capability can stop Russia from battering towns to bits out of pure malice, that’s not going to win the war

Without being flippant, the fact that the Russians are blowing up houses and towns with impact fused shelling  is in fact quite an interesting fact in of itself. It means they're not using proximity fused shelling. Bad for the houses and the people that own them, but not so much for the Ukrainian Army.

it’s good that Ukraine are being supplied, but the flip side is that it will mean more death and destruction on both sides

Well it could ultimately mean less. If it can turn the tide then it could end the war much sooner which would mean fewer deaths in fewer regions.

molgrips
Full Member
it’s good that Ukraine are being supplied, but the flip side is that it will mean more death and destruction on both sides

Well it could ultimately mean less. If it can turn the tide then it could end the war much sooner which would mean fewer deaths in fewer regions.

That's the question at the minute really. Are they being given enough to push them out?

Strategically, it makes sense to drain Russia as much as possible, which means stalemate and continued fighting for a long while yet, imo.

That’s the question at the minute really. Are they being given enough to push them out?

I get the feeling that there's a very clever tactical war being fought by Ukranian side. Really high impact, high value targets being hit, keeping enemy guessing and tied down 'in case'.
I hope that these longer range artillery pieces help by having longer range and more accuracy, and can really start biting at the Russian military assets who currently stand back and press a button to kill a few more civilians.

Perhaps.

I wonder if they didnt use the baykratra drones from Turkey to hit those fuel depots. Would explain the range and lack of reports of planes or helos in the air at the time.
I suspect the usa will be fast tracking drone development as it counters most 20th century ground attack forces very effectively.
Need a greater variety of sizes and some clever frequency scrambling but if you could repurpose small powered gliders into loitering recce platforms backed up with L T D missiles it nullifies armour very effectively

I suspect the usa will be fast tracking drone development as it counters most 20th century ground attack forces very effectively.

Just watched a video about the latest Apache attack helicopter upgrades, which basically make it into a mini control centre for its own little fleet of drones. They go in and take out the dodgy stuff and the Apache pops up to finish the rest of it. Sounds like their Stealth bomber is going to have a drone equivalent too. Looks like the next big step to me.

Have we covered the alleged plot, busted by the heroes of the FSB, for far right nazis to bump off a Russian TV host, at the behest of the Ukrainians. The Russians have even released a video of the perps being collared.

It's comical. They were apparently in possession of three sims video games, and an extremely compromising note handwritten on some far-right literature is signed off by "signature unclear". You can just picture some minion being sent off to get some sims for the raid..

God only knows how they ever get anything done. Incompetent and thick. Gives me hope that the Ukrainians (who are neither) will continue to successfully target vital infrastructure whilst the FSB faff about with their pathetic pantomimes..

I get the feeling that there’s a very clever tactical war being fought by Ukranian side. Really high impact, high value targets being hit, keeping enemy guessing and tied down ‘in case’.

Well yeah, the Russians can't defend half of western Russia as well as hold a thin strip of Eastern Ukraine.

whilst the FSB faff about with their pathetic pantomimes

They don't need to convince you, they just have to be good enough to convince enough Russians, which they apparently are. Why try any harder than that?

Sweden/ Finland to apply to join NATO "within days" as reported by ITV news a moment ago.

Well done Putin.

Sweden/ Finland to apply to join NATO “within days” as reported by ITV news a moment ago.

In Russia this will be 'more Nazi's forced to join NATO, encircling mother Russia, and separating our comrades from ourselves.
It will be used as justification for the war...

^^ Absolutely but we are at a point where its clear that if it rains on the Kremlin it would be framed as an attack by weaponised water designed by the West. Might as well get on and do what needs to be done.

As for Sweden/Finland, it's pure survival/ common sense based on what they are witnessing Russia perpetrating in Ukraine. Who could seriously blame them for joining NATO asap... apart from Putin but what's he going to do? He's a little tied up already.

The Kremlin has been threatening America over its supplying Ukraine with weapons. They haven’t specified what steps they’ll take in retaliation, though. Considering just how well they’re managing against Ukraine, maybe they’ll just get a bunch of conscripts up on the Aleutian Islands to throw Molotov cocktails at Alaska…

The Kremlin has been threatening America over its supplying Ukraine with weapons. They haven’t specified what steps they’ll take in retaliation, though. Considering just how well they’re managing against Ukraine, maybe they’ll just get a bunch of conscripts up on the Aleutian Islands to throw Molotov cocktails at Alaska…

Unless Putin wants to attack NATO and then watch as NATO destroys his army, airforce, and navy, he's limited to whining about how unfair the world is.

Planning a dico inferno (stolen from the comments).

https://twitter.com/tomgara/status/1518718705013772292

Really? The NYPost! Lol...quality journalism 😉

It took me a while to work out the “Sims” connection. Then I saw that last Twitter post and literally facepalmed.

Sadly, as Molgrips has said, the average Russian doesn’t care, they will believe it. They’ve been force fed that sort of thing for years and have no means of fact checking it.

In Russia this will be ‘more Nazi’s forced to join NATO, encircling mother Russia, and separating our comrades from ourselves.
It will be used as justification for the war…

I’m still taken aback that Putin seems to be achieving what actual Nazi Germany couldn’t in getting Sweden to step away from 200 hundred years of neutrality. (There’s a convincing to me argument, that part of the reason is that Sweden will end up isolated as all neighbours will be in)

It’s astonishing.

It also makes me wonder what would have happened if NATO/EU/US had called his bluff earlier. For all the regurgitation of “Putin running circles around x,y, and z” it really does seem that it was just a readiness for violence and not political genius.

There’s a BBC documentary about Navalny here, not new, but if you missed it first time round.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0016txs

In August 2020, a plane travelling from Siberia to Moscow made an emergency landing. One of its passengers, Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, was deathly ill. Taken to a local Siberian hospital and eventually evacuated to Berlin, doctors there confirmed that he had been poisoned with Novichok, a nerve agent implicated in attacks on other opponents of the Russian government. President Vladimir Putin immediately cast doubt on the findings and denied any involvement.

While recovering, Navalny and his team unravel the plot against him, finding evidence of the Kremlin’s involvement, and prepare to go public with their findings.

Guardian article on the same here but released a few days ago

https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2022/apr/25/navalny-review-one-of-the-most-jaw-dropping-things-youll-ever-witness?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

The ensuing conversation is one of the most jaw-dropping things you’ll ever witness – it’s clearly all in a day’s work for the agent who, as Navalny fights to keep the incredulous glee out of his voice, drones on about dosage, the exact placement of the poison in Navalny’s underpants and the annoyingly quick reactions of the emergency services. “Poor guy,” smirks Navalny at the end of the conversation. “They will kill him.”

The trigger for that article is this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navalny_(film)

https://edition.cnn.com/shows/cnn-films

Jesus wept.

Nope, I never got it either. Has Comical Ali got a new gig?

actual Nazi Germany couldn’t in getting Sweden to step away from 200 hundred years of neutrality.

Depends what you mean by neutral really. Sweden moved German troops on it's railway to fight the Russians, sold iron and other metals to the Germans , and allowed German owned mines in Sweden to carry on. On the other hand it allowed the Allies to use airbases in the last dregs of the war and I think trained some Danish refugees as well.

Churchill complained that Sweden "played both sides for profit" He wasn't really wrong.

UN/USA Talks with Putin today let's hope eh.
A small hope

So the 3 sims thing look to be true. Someone has also put a photo of one of the passports on Twitter and it's a photo of Matt Damon???? That's either the best trolling or pure stupidity. I think we have crossed the line into the surreal..

Edit **Boo it's a fake

Depends what you mean by neutral really.

Sandwiched between a fascist genocidal empire on on side a murderous communist regime on the other, I'm willing to cut them some slack. Although permitting troop movements is news to me.

I'm not sure they would have been a position to just trade with the west and also survive?

I’m not sure they would have been a position to just trade with the west and also survive?

I think the fact that Sweden had a non aggression pact with Norway which meant that it couldn't build defenses along the border between the two countries. When Norway was invaded, they obviously made some "practical" decisions about keeping the Nazis sweet. I think they were subject to naval blockades from the Allies and the Nazis, so I don't think they could've remained trading with just one side.

They sold 10 of millions of tons of iron ore to the Nazis, bought Italian fighter planes, shipped ball bearings to the allies, but rescued many thousands of Jews, trained Danish resistance and Army personnel  Post war they also transported captured German and Latvian soldiers to Russian camps.

Complex.

Another mysterious fire breaks out, apparently a gas leak.

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1518641558295355398

I'm going to put my cards on the table and say the Ukrainian forces are going to defeat the Russians, and I don't mean fight to a standstill, I mean degrade the Russians to a point where they either have to retreat or are destroyed in place.

I’ve been cautiously thinking that since about week 2 of the conflict 🤞

With such a shortage of manpower at the frontlines, Russia will have a bigger problem dealing with any insurgency in the rear.

Meanwhile Russia making gains near Izyum but losing captured ground near Kherson

Lets be honest, on their own, the UAF would have fought like hell, but lost. It is the western weapons, intelligence, training and money that will make the difference.

I really hope it's enough of a difference to win - certainly possible. I'm fearful of how much of a country will be left in the East.

maybe they’ll just get a bunch of conscripts up on the Aleutian Islands to throw Molotov cocktails at Alaska…

Next season of 'Deadliest Catch' could be worth watching.

I’m going to put my cards on the table and say the Ukrainian forces are going to defeat the Russians, and I don’t mean fight to a standstill, I mean degrade the Russians to a point where they either have to retreat or are destroyed in place.

Yes, that does seem to be a very real possibility. Morale among the Russian soldiers must be rock bottom, their leaders are incompetent, their equipment is shoddy, and the Ukrainians are getting shipments of advanced gear.

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1518604757149143040

You have to remember that the Russian Army was effectively defeated by the Afghans and I am pretty sure they didn't have access to the weaponry that UKR is getting.

I am pretty sure they didn’t have access to the weaponry that UKR is getting.

Not entirely true. The terrain played a large part in the Afghan war. No convenient plains to send tanks and artillery across and not that many cities to target either. So a lot of what is now being sent would be irrelevant.
They were however given a bunch of Stingers and other anti air weapons which did have a similar effect as to what is happening currently in Ukraine.

Why is Russia constantly making themselves out to be the victims? I can understand it for their own internal propaganda but on the world stage it just makes them look even more moronic than usual.

Paraphrasing Russian statement: "Some bastard invaded Ukraine and the rest of the world is upset about it. They're now helping Ukraine and we're worried that this might exacerbate the problem. Someone needs to do something to de-escalate the situation. Can anyone help?"

Why is Russia constantly making themselves out to be the victims?

Dont rule out them believing it (or at least Putin and everyone else, not fancying an unusual sweetener in their tea, repeating it). There does seem to be a certain type of bully who when they get punched back thinks its all rather unfair.

Why is Russia constantly making themselves out to be the victims?

I think that most of them believe this. It's similar to how well-off white people think that white people are the biggest victims of discrimination. A big part of Russia's identity seems to be based on defeating the Nazis, but then the USSR collapsed and it was easier to blame it on Western treachery than the fundamentally corrupt and incompetent Soviet system. This gives them another excuse to blame NATO for something that is the result of their own stupidity.

Germany now moves to send heavy weapons. From the BBC:

According to reports, the German government is set to back sending mobile anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine.

The Gepard twin-cannon system has been in service with the German army since the 1970s and is based on the chassis of the Leopard tank.

German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht is expected to give details at the meeting of Western defence ministers on Tuesday, at the US Ramstein airbase in Germany.

It is not clear how many will be delivered but it would be the first direct delivery of a German heavy weapon to Ukraine.

The German government has been accused of delaying arms supplies to Ukraine, in contrast with the US, UK and Ukraine’s east European neighbours.

German media say there are also plans to deliver about 100 Marder infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine and some old Leopard battle tanks.

In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany is boosting its defence budget this year by €100bn (£84bn; $113bn) - a major policy change.

Is this not the whole point - Russian leaders genuinely believe they are the 'hard done by' party in all this. They've 'lost' countries post USSR, they've 'lost' huge energy resources in Ukraine, they're seeing a successful transfer of ex-USSR countries to Europe and a brighter future, huge corruption, a brain and culture drain and more - but none of this is seen as thier fault.
It's everyone else who is being nasty.

Victimhood is a pretty standard populist trick

The Gepard twin-cannon system has been in service with the German army since the 1970s and is based on the chassis of the Leopard tank.

German media say there are also plans to deliver about 100 Marder infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine and some old Leopard battle tanks.

Not dissimilar to my late 80's Tamiya-equipped bookshelf.

Meanwhile recent Moldovan election swinging away from pro-russian parties amplified by what Russia has done in Ukraine has got Putin spooked he might lose his hold over Transnistria
FSB/Putin are mad if they think they can coordinate opening up another front in this war tho.

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1518887491016830976

Victimhood is a pretty standard populist trick

Yes, it's the standard right wing playbook - equal pay for women is unfair on men, cycle lanes are 'war on the motorist,' refraining from using the N word is an attack on Great British Culture or whatever.

Pretend you're a poor hard-done-by victim, and then take revenge on the people you resent. It's what Hitler did, it's what the Hutus in Rwanda did, it's what Putin's doing, it's what Trump tried to do, and it's what right-wing commentators across the world enable every day. Whilst accusing everyone else of claiming victimhood, obviously.

It's the only way they can justify their violence.

it’s what Trump tried to do did and is still doing

FTFY, but that belongs in the Trump thread.

FTFY, but that belongs in the Trump thread.

funnily enough, I actually said 'did' initially, but I edited the post because I thought some pedant would try to argue the point 😆

With Transnistria, how is Russia supplying their troops there? They obviously can't travel through Ukraine, Moldova and Transnistria are land locked, and the countries to the west of Moldova are in Nato. I have heard there are very large Soviet weapons dumps there, but from what has been shown of old soviet equipment, its not going to be great.

Would Putin's plan be to throw his soldiers in Transnistria to their deaths in the hope of diverting enough Ukrainians away from the Donbas?