Ukraine

What do we think about the helicopter attack on the Russian oil depot?

Ballsy for sure, though how much physical impact it will have is debatable.  Oil is one thing the Russians are not short of.  Might hinder supply locally for a short while.  The real significance I think is the psychological one on the Russians.  Apparently the locals were asking how it happened when all Ukrainian helicopters were destroyed in the first few days (as Russian media had claimed).  It shows Russians they are being lied to, and that their military and air defences are not as omnipotent as they were told.  Also, I bet mad Vlad is apoplectic with rage and hopefully bursting many blood vessels, sacking more generals and isolating himself even more.  That’s if he’s even been told about it, you wouldn’t fancy being the Kremlin staffer sent to tell him!

The madness of Russia and Putin is very depressing.

It really makes me think, that the theory that the reason SETI has never found any evidence of alien life, is that no civilization has managed to get past this level of tech and ends up nuking itself back to the Stone Age.

Not confirmed as Ukrainian yet – still a slight suggestion it may be a ‘false flag’ attack, but it is hard to see what benefit that could be to the Russians. If it was Ukraine it is remarkable that they can still do this 5 weeks in. It may also mean that the Russians have to tie up forces defending places they thought were safe.

As above though feels like mostly a psychological rather than military impact.

What do we think about the helicopter attack on the Russian oil depot?

One of the major problems for the Russian forces in Ukraine is fuel supplies so this should disrupt their logistics. It’s not going to bring Russia to its knees, but it’s just a bit more friction to disrupt their war effort. It will also force them to divert resources to defending Russia rather than attacking Ukraine. It’s hugely embarrassing for Russia that Ukrainian helicopters can penetrate into Russia and escape unharmed, I expect there will be some vacancies coming up among the air defence force leadership.

Oil is one thing the Russians are not short of.

You can have all the oil you want but it’s pretty useless without the infrastructure to move and store it.

It’s hugely embarrassing for Russia that Ukrainian helicopters can penetrate into Russia and escape unharmed

Russian Air force has really under-performed to a huge extent. There’s pretty routine daily phone footage of Ukrainian tanks/APCs etc moving about on roads in broad daylight, these attacks into Russia on valuable targets , I’ve even seen footage of U-AF MiG29’s stooging about at low level.

I’m still not sure attacking targets in Russia is wise – strategically it makes sense, but I’m not sure if it will convince Russians they have been misled to help sway public opinion, or reinforce opinion behind Putin that the Ukranians are a threat to the motherland.

I don’t think Russian public opinion is going to change very much. This is an attack intended to reduce Russia’s military capacity, that’s more important to Ukraine than wishful thinking that Russian public opinion might convince Putin to withdraw.

If confirmed as a true fact, the Ukrainian helicopter operation to attack an oil depot deep in the Russian territory is an absolutely, royally badass page of this war.https://t.co/2mQcenWAgk

— Illia Ponomarenko ?? (@IAPonomarenko) April 1, 2022

Just watching complicit mass murderer Lavrov speaking in Delhi calling out the west as being the cause of this murderous campaign.
Hope he gets the kinda stomach I got when I went there.

I wonder if Russian propaganda that has been bragging about destroying Ukrainian air force for weeks has made their air defences lazy, certainly its confused the citizens of Belgorod

Lol. The biggest complaints among the Belgorod residents on social media: 1. Where did they get the helicopters? They told us UA lost all of their helicopters in the first six hours. 2. Why were those helicopters allowed to fly in and not shot? pic.twitter.com/SsHjEG8VEl

— Olha (@olashka) April 1, 2022

Putin has royally ballsed up

BREAKING:

Finland is expected to take the decision on whether or not to apply for NATO membership before the end of May.

The newspaper Iltalehti has revealed that the first step, the publication of the Foreign and Security Policy Report, will take place April 14th.

(1/?) pic.twitter.com/8qnYxNKfVW

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) March 31, 2022

The oil depot attack. Either:

– it’s a false flag operation, in which case alongside blaming Ukrainian forces, Putin has to explain why the Ukr helicopters were still in existence and allowed in/out unmolested. (As Russian people were told that the Ukr air force was wiped out and Russia was in control).

– it’s a Ukr attack that’s difficult to explain in Russia for the same reasons above and shows a good strategic plan to keep Russian logistics under pressure.

I’m intrigued.

I can’t see that it was a false flag, really. What are they gonna do, bomb even more hospitals? Starve the people of Mariupol even more? They didn’t need any false flags to get to this point, and a nuclear reaction would still be out of the question IMO.

Probably just a ballsy move by the Ukrainians, and poor air defence from Russia, I’d imagine.

I heard the other day on the radio that the Chinese made a nuclear pledge to Ukraine in 2013 in case of nuclear attack.

Interesting that the UKR general staff say they have no knowledge of it though.

Either:
it’s a false flag operation…

That was my first reaction but it’s actually a fairly important piece of infrastructure and looks to have been badly damaged. A false flag would more likely be against something like a school or hospital that would provoke outrage about war crimes. And, also, the only thing Russia has left to escalate with is WMDs. If they were planning on using those, surely they would have used them already.

False flag act or deliberate attempt by faction of RU military to…
Bring attention to the theatre of operations
Remove an amount of oil from the area
Show the population they are being lied to.
Prove its not a handful of nazi but an entire country they are fighting
Turn public opinion against Pootang.
Again, show the locals its a real war by waking them at 0430 with a rocket attack.

Who knows, maybe chewie

I like MOAB / Singletrackmind analysis up there ^^^ that, whichever way it is (false flag or real), it raises more questions for the Russian population.

The deal with China is new to me.

Here’s an older AJ article

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/3/7/china-s-unusual-nuclearpactwithukrainesyanukovich.html

Could be a false flag operation, it would give them justification to bring out the big guns.

Can’t see the oil refinery as a false flag, too valuable surely.

Certainly the pilots have stainless steel balls! Maybe this will force Russia to redirect resources form the front, to behind the lines to protect infrastructure?

My suspicion is the West / Nato has been supplying top notch recon to Ukraine and identified the oil refinery as a high value but vulnerable target. I also suspect Ukraine has been getting the best of western strategic and tactical advice.

I would be interested in an opinion on something from those with military knowledge if possible? I note Germany is no longer publibly reporting all the details of what weapons they are sending to Ukraine. I also read a report that it is suspected the Germans have / are sending a significant number of 120mm howitzers to Ukraine.

We have read about the “withdrawal” of Russian forces noth of Kyiv but as I understand it the Ukrainians were close to encircling approx 10k Rusian troops in that area. If Ukraine then got access to a reasonable number of 120mm howitzers from Germany, how many shells per day would they have been able to rain down on those 10k encircled Russians? Surely it would have been carnage for the Russians?

The White House has publicly stated its providing “real time” intelligence some time ago.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/russia-ukraine-us-intelligence-sharing-b2028091.html

Thanks for that piemonster. I suppose the thing we will never know is if the Ukranians are being provided with suggested target lists.

It’s not a stretch to conclude that they’re being given a list of juicy unprotected Russian logistics assets that it would be terrible if something were to “happen” to.

Then there’s another possibility

AIRWOLF!

I mean, whose to say reality does not mirror fiction and someone (called stringfellow hawk) has not built a supersonic attck chopper and keeps it in a stack in montana. With a ground crew of 1 retired old man and an unlimited supply of munitions.

If it weren’t so horrific, I could chuckle at the Russians complaining that striking the Oil Depot damages the change of peace talks while they annihilate Mariupol. Off-the-scale double standards.

Definitely feasible but equally I’m not sure the US would be that keen to encourage Ukrainian attacks across the border. I think it’s more likely the intel relates to movements within Ukraine?

AIRWOLF!

I mean, whose to say reality does not mirror fiction and someone (called stringfellow hawk) has not built a supersonic attck chopper and keeps it in a stack in montana. With a ground crew of 1 retired old man and an unlimited supply of munitions.

And a kick-ass theme tune!

so long as Putin keeps getting punched in the face I don’t really care who’s supplying who with whatever.

Just had an interesting conversation with a Ukrainian-Russian lady who basically span me the same yarn that comes out of Russia in that ethnic Russians have been persecuted in Ukraine and the west never knew about it. And she lives now in the UK and watches our media.
Wasn’t much i could say as i didn’t want a bad haircut and she probably has infinitely more experience than me, but i just asked how can murdering civilians on this scale be justified, and if she was still in living in Russia, (she said she lived in Moscow for a while) the media there would not report these atrocities.

Speaking to reporters, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there is not an immediate threat to Europe’s supplies.

“Does this mean that if there is no confirmation in roubles, then gas supplies will be cut off from April 1? No, it doesn’t, and it doesn’t follow from the decree.”

So it looks like Russia capitulated first on the gas issue, perhaps they were expecting Europe to suddenly agree to paying in Roubles?

Its domestic propaganda.

UK and others are sending long range artillery to Ukraine for counter battery i.e. to shell the guns shelling the Ukrainian towns. I’d assume the counter battery radars will also be supplied.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/31/west-to-send-more-lethal-aid-to-ukraine-uk-defence-minister-says

UK and others are sending long range artillery to Ukraine for counter battery

At the rate of Russian retreat, it’s going to need to be long range.

Russia can regroup, but Ukraine can move its forces from Kyiv to support the JFO too and clearly Ukraine still has aviation assets if needed. Plus, Russian forces are struggling to hold positions in Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv as an economy of force mission. 2/

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 1, 2022

What do we think about the helicopter attack on the Russian oil depot?

It would be suicidal, but Ukraine denying it now it seems. Does smell like Russian propaganda.

Does smell like Russian propaganda.

Might be, but, “the enemy came and kicked our arses” is an innovative way to rally the troops.

May day parade in Russia might be interesting if this keeps up.
Russia complaining about an oil depo when they are committed to erasing the population of a country.
Also well done for making your own force sick with radiation poisoning in the red Forrest.

Putin’s war eh

On German TV it is being reported that the Ruskies claim it was a civil fuel depot used mainly for public transport.