UK Government Thread

So you’re not a fan of the rich i take it?

We should really try to see past the illness to the humans suffering it and creating all that pain and misery in everyone affected by their depravity. Dehumanising the sick is deeply unhelpful when instead we should be treating the condition and rehabilitating the super rich so they can contribute to society instead of wreaking havoc by indulging their addictions.

Interesting inflation figures this morning. Admittedly mostly due to deflation in fuel prices but it looks like those of us who said the BoE were completely over-egging interest rate rises were right and deflation beckons. That’s going to cause Starmer and Reeves a whole bunch of new headaches.

Nah, room to spend more…

A deflating economy means deflating economic growth.

Also the public will expect to see lower prices and the cost of living improving in their favour. If that doesn’t happen (which is likely) then Labour will take the flak for that.

“Deflation” isn’t about to happen. And nor is “deflating economic growth”. Inflation is stabilising (and will rise again a bit this winter), but that lower more predictable inflation (and interest rates) isn’t a headache for the government in the slightest, it gives them room to spend more (both investment and public wage bill increases).

“Deflation” isn’t about to happen.

How do you know? I’m not saying the reduction in inflation is a bad thing, clearly it’s not but the danger of deflation is there. Probably won’t happen cos they’ll slash interest rates to prevent it but again it shows that the BoE should never have hiked them up in the first place. My mortgage is now fixed at around £400/month more than it was before along with lots of other people so forgive me if I don’t get too excited as the damage is already done.

Bet you a pint that inflation doesn’t become negative. At any point in this parliament. Make it a strong one.

My mortgage went up as well, and is staying there for a few years. Not really down to the BofE, or this government.

No it won’t because they’ll take drastic action to avoid it. I think the hundreds of thousands stuck on high mortgage rates will be entitled to ask why they had to go up so much in the the first place.

Ask anyone who’ll still admit to backing Truss’ “don’t look before you jump” budget.

My mortgage went up as well, and is staying there for a few years. Not really down to the BofE, or this government.

It’s totally do with the lender  / BoE and government.

The government / BoE are the price level setters.  What else could it be?

Current interest rates were well on there way up before the Truss budget.  There is nothing that says absolutely that interest rates should go up or down other than a group of people saying it should, because they believe it to be so.

Interest rate across the world (save Japan – who didn’t blindly follow this rubbish and kept inflation in check) – went up, this wasn’t down to Truss – it’s down to a belief rather than a model.

The UK government can over-rule the BoE any time it wants to.  Pretending they can’t do anything is a lie.

(Worth remembering in this debate – inflation isn’t CPI necessarily. And everyone will experience inflation in different ways.)

The government can do anything it wants…  but there are consequences.

Presumably the pressure on oil prices with Israel sabre rattling at Iran will hit next month’s inflation figures?

Rates are not high they are perfectly normal.

Money doesn’t grow on trees.

(Worth remembering in this debate – inflation isn’t CPI necessarily. And everyone will experience inflation in different ways.)

Also worth noting that slapping 5p back on fuel duty would directly counter the falling fuel prices.

And oil prices have gone up again.

The UK government can over-rule the BoE any time it wants to.  Pretending they can’t do anything is a lie.

By the same argument Charlie sets interest rates. In theory yes, in practice they’ve been given a degree of independence. Even in an MMT world and without a quasi-independent central bank, you’d still have to balance government spending with interest rates to control inflation. In that sense both Truss and the most frivolous socialist* are two sides of the same coin, an imbalance in government spending catalyzed** high interest rates.  Interest rates would not be independent regardless of the mechanism.

*assuming spending goes up but tax doesn’t

**it’s always a stretch to imply direct causation when it was a multifaceted worldwide problem, but we could probably have not made it an apocalyptical financial cliff edge.

Ministers complain to Starmer over spending cuts

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0r8e421y5po

There has been considerable Cabinet disquiet about the spending cuts required to meet the Treasury’s proposed spending limit.

Danny Shaw, a commentator on justice and policing affairs, who has previously advised the Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, said cuts of that order would be “devastating” for the justice department.

“It would completely destroy in many ways the criminal justice system in terms of the courts, probation, prisons and legal aid,” he said.

I believe that the standard centrist response to that sort of criticism is…….”Would you rather have a Tory government?”

There’s nothing left to cut that comes under the Ministry of Justice… it’s all financially **** already.

I believe that the standard centrist response to that sort of criticism is…….”Would you rather have a Tory government?”

Heaven forbid the debate start in a civil fashion.

Bloody fanatical centrists, coming on here, being happy with middle of the road policies instead of fringe ones, grrr

There’s nothing left to cut that comes under the Ministry of Justice… it’s all financially **** already.

It’s a nightmare, my mate is a witness in a potential attempted murder trial…

Basically one of his neighbours who was already known as a bit of a nutter,  smacked another of his neigbours round the head with a crowbar/some sort of metal bar because he didnt like where he parked his car…

Guy was sparked out, hospitalised, but no lasting damage from what I’m told.

It’s been going on for 2 years now, and the trial has just been delayed again, as according to the defence, the person who got whacked cant be 100% it was that guy that hit him, (as he was concussed) and his injury may have been sustained not as a result of being hit round the head with a metal bar, but he may have fallen over and hit his head on the floor regardless of the attack.

This is despite the fact that there are witnesess, my friend and one other, (but they didn’t see the attack first hand, they came out of thier houses to see what all the ruckus was about) and immediatley knew exactly what happened…

…and the police have recovered the crowbar with the victims blood on it, and said metal bar was recovered from the house of the assailent, with his DNA all over it…

trail delayed for another 6 months now….. it’s an absolute joke…

Net resut so far:

A) Victim with no justice

B) A complete nutter still free to cause havock

Legal system totally fubar’d by 14 years of intentional destruction.

instead of fringe ones

Does “fringe” now mean 44% of the public?

“44% believe that Reeves is doing a bad job as Chancellor. This is identical to the percentage that thought former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt was doing a bad job at the last budget in March 2024.”

So much in common.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/labour-and-starmer-approval-ratings-continue-drop-government-nears-100-days-power

happy with middle of the road policies

You know the problem with being in the middle of the road don’t you? Yup, it’s not a very safe place to be.

There is no way Justice can take a 20% cut, the minister will need to walk out if asked to make that kind of cut. The alternative is to fail to achieve the reductions AND embed damage in a system that desperately needs repairing while trying.

Even in an MMT world and without a quasi-independent central bank, you’d still have to balance government spending with interest rates to control inflation

Taxation is the main brake for inflation.

Interest rates do not react in the way central banks think they do to control inflation.  As I’ve been saying for ages higher interest rates are partly inflationary as they add more money to the economy to people with money. This has almost certainly driven asset prices.

(Below I put this up recently before it was published.)

Some discussion about UK black-hole balls and why framing taxation for spending never works politically.

Apologies if you’ve watched it. It was a decent watch and questions are from the UK based Ash Sarker.

Legal system totally fubar’d by 14 years of intentional destruction.

Its not all bad.

If you have the cash/infrastructure up front to arrange for a private prosecution you can not only skip the queue but then recover your costs from the taxpayer.

Hence why private prosecutions are a booming segment of the legal system.

Now thats a proper two tier legal system.  At least though we can feel safe there wont be any miscarriages of justice with private prosecutions though since no history of dubious prosecutions.

Can we at least get some Richard Murphy, Stephanie Kelton is just sooo 2023

ernielynch

“44% believe that Reeves is doing a bad job as Chancellor. This is identical to the percentage that thought former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt was doing a bad job at the last budget in March 2024.”

Belief and perception will certainly be important at the next GE but belief isn’t tangible in other ways. If her and the governments policies are effective over the next 5 years, beliefs will change.

The recent poll you posted with the Tories only 1 point behind Labour shows just how incredibly short the collective populous memory is. A couple of bad headlines in the Mail and, “the Tories weren’t that bad actually after all, were they?” Pretty incredible and more than a little disheartening really.

To quote a wise man, “You can’t trust people, Jez.”

Virtually no one’s lives have changed for better or worse since the election result, which again shows how ephemeral and lacking in basis believes actually are.

I’m no fan of Reeves but I’ll give her a chance to bugger things up before I cast actual judgment. 🙂

The recent poll you posted with the Tories only 1 point behind Labour shows just how incredibly short the collective populous memory is.

I have posted a more recent one which actually shows Labour and the Tories tie! It was the first one in about two and a half years that didn’t give Labour a lead over the Tories. It’s not that popularity for the Tories has increased, it’s that Labour’s popularity has fallen.

And dissatisfaction with the current Labour Chancellor isn’t simply because people have short memories, why do think that apparently a lot of Labour ministers have expressed serious concerns with regards to Rachel Reeves? It obviously isn’t because they have forgotten about Jeremy Hunt.

https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1845359983107486155

And dissatisfaction with the current Labour Chancellor isn’t simply because people have short memories, why do think that apparently a lot of Labour ministers have expressed serious concerns with regards to Rachel Reeves? It obviously isn’t because they have forgotten about Jeremy Hunt.

I’m willing to bet that most people HAVE forgotten Jeremy Hunt. Probably including Jeremy Hunt!

Out of Government, out of the media, out of mind. I bet the average person in the street can just about remember that Sunak was the previous PM; as to the previous Cabinet, they won’t have a clue.

Reeves I kind of have some sympathy for. She’s inherited a total ****-up, no doubt about it. You can’t come into the tail end of 14 years of corruption and ineptitude (with the final 2 years actively ending in a scorched earth policy) and NOT end up inheriting a total ****-up!

I just think there are better ways of plugging this alleged £22bn black hole.

It’s strange cos on the one hand there’s actually some reasonably positive stuff coming from certain parts of Government. And then it’s usually offset by another own goal from some other corner of Government…

And dissatisfaction with the current Labour Chancellor isn’t simply because people have short memories, why do think that apparently a lot of Labour ministers have expressed serious concerns with regards to Rachel Reeves?

Every **** year ministers kick off ahead of the budget to appear to try and protect their departments budgets.

This isn’t a Labour/Reeves problem, it’s part of the annual kite flying ritual.

I’m willing to bet that most people HAVE forgotten Jeremy Hunt.

I doubt that Labour ministers complaining to Starmer over spending cuts have forgotten about Jeremy Hunt. Do you believe that they are more clueless than the average punter on this thread?

Did you read the article – is that your explanation to why they are complaining?

Every **** year ministers kick off ahead of the budget to appear to try and protect their departments budgets.

This isn’t a Labour/Reeves problem, it’s part of the annual kite flying ritual.

I am assuming that you didn’t read the article. The third paragraph:

In what some say is an unusual move, ministers from hard-pressed departments are calling for a last-minute rethink of the Budget, “going over the head” over the chancellor, to address the prime minister directly.

The recent poll you posted with the Tories only 1 point behind Labour shows just how incredibly short the collective populous memory is. A couple of bad headlines in the Mail and, “the Tories weren’t that bad actually after all, were they?” Pretty incredible and more than a little disheartening really.

Yes, I said that way before the election. People soon forget – the only thing that matters to them is how well they think they personally are doing so things need to change a lot for them to think Labour are any better. A lot of people are not as interested in politics as posters on this thread and don’t really care who ministers are or what shit they say, they just care about what actually happens to their lives. That is why ‘tackling’ things such as WFA was such a stupid thing to do as it affects people negatively and for very little gain to anything else, people will remember that and more importantly be reminded of it in years to come.
If you spend loads of money on NHS and for example appointment times come down by average of 5 days most people won’t actually notice so Labour are up against it in 5 years time when people ask what the point of Labour was and go back to the good old tory party that this country seems to prefer for many reasons.
That is why some of us wanted Labour to be a lot more ambitious and progressive – not only because we feel that is better for society but also for future chances of winning elections based on the fact they actually improved things noticeably.

Legal system totally fubar’d by 14 years of intentional destruction.

That isn’t the whole story, the MoJ has announced a cap of 105,000 on days that the Crown Court will sit for this year. It had been uncapped under the Conservatives for the last four years following covid. In practice “uncapped” was around 107,000 days per year.

The MoJ was predicting 64000 outstanding cases by the end of this financial year (March 2025), so reducing sitting days is unexpected

Barristers rates of pay haven’t been tackled by either the previous government or this one, despite it being an issue for a few years

In what some say is an unusual move, ministers from hard-pressed departments are calling for a last-minute rethink of the Budget, “going over the head” over the chancellor, to address the prime minister directly.

I did read the article and I call bollocks. It happens every year, it’s reported every year. Just more prominently depending on the paper/government.

As above, ministers are always requested to provide potential reductions prior to any budget, ministers will also openly complain about this, as it’s a big bunfight where they want their department to do well out of it.

Up until the actual budget, it’s usually all a mystery to what will happen, because the treasury are requesting a lot of data from each department in isolation, and it’s the treasury who will come up with several options, and the chancellor and her team who will approve at the end.

As for Reeves ratings, this is governing, not a popularity contest, no government cares that much about making unpopular decisions unless it’s within a year of an election, as they’re over 4 years away, i doubt it’s keeping them up at night that the Mail or Guardian reaaders aren’t fans.

I did read the article and I call bollocks.

Ah, the  BBC’s usual anti-Labour tricks no doubt?

Although I reckon that the BBC’s neutrality is a tad more convincing in this particularly instance than yours.

There is nothing “normal” about the Deputy Prime Minister leading a Cabinet revolt against the Chancellor of the Exchequer, let alone to expect it to be something which happens every year:

Angela Rayner leads Cabinet revolt against Reeves’ ‘huge’ Budget cuts

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/reeves-keir-starmer-chancellor-budget-b2630710.html

The only reasonable comparison that can be made is with Tory disunity of the last 5 years, which is hardly a good benchmark and one that cost the Tories very dearly in electoral terms – UK voters famously do not like disunity in political parties.

But let’s pretend everything is just fine, eh?

When papers use words like ‘revolt’ when talking about politics, Its from the same bucket of hyperbole for when they use words like ‘flaunting’ and ‘on display’ when referring to spy shots of famous women in bikinis.

So the Independent is part of this anti-Labour media conspiracy too?

Well listen if  Cabinet ministers sending formal letters to the Prime Minister complaining about the Chancellor of the Exchequer is perfectly normal, and happens every year, how about providing an example of when that has previously happened under a Labour government?

It should be extremely easily to provide a link. Any link. Even one in which involves a Tory government, if you can’t find one involving a Labour government.

So the Independent is part of this anti-Labour media conspiracy too?

How’d you leap to that conclusion?

The Independent, like every other newspaper just wants to sell copy. It’ll use headline to do that, hell, they’ll spin things just as hard as politicians do. I’d be willing to bet money that senior ministers have been asked to write to chancellor to justify why the Ministry of Paperclips should be excluded from any swingeing cuts that Reeves (or in reality the treasury since the dawn of time) have got planned for them.