UK Government Thread

who thinks rich pensioners should be given the £300 anyway?

I do, but I wouldn’t call it a fuel subsidy I’d call it a state pension increase which every pensioner (including the rich) would get in relation to their NI contributions record. I’d go a step further and have a universal income for anyone over 18 (or 16 if living independantly) which would top up low/zero incomes to bring people out of poverty. Giving the very poorest money is never going to turn into an economic “withdrawal” and is money that will be recycled in the ecomony to the benefit of all. Being stingy with the poorest is a poor economic choice.

The yougov poll that i have quoted with the 2:1 preference is here

https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Copy_of_Internal_TwoChildCap_240709.pdf

While I accept the phrasing of the question can drive the answers, the question seems pretty neutral to me?

Currently there is a two child limit on the
number of children parents can claim
child‑related welfare benefits for. Do you think
this limit should be kept, or should it be
abolished?

It’s not BS. It’s a verified OBR fact

A black hole is a verified unit of measurement?

t’s not BS. It’s a verified OBR fact. You can argue they should have predicted a deficit, or that it’s irrelevant because Kelton says so, but it is a clear fact that the Chancellor and the Head of the OBR did not have visibility of the actual overspend against DEL until well after the election.

It’s bullshit. (The OBR get loads of stuff wrong.  They also believe public debt is out of control – will they let us know exactly before it happens what % of GDP that occurs at?)

It’s not a real black-hole.  Otherwise how wold you offer up 3Bn a year to Ukraine, secure pay deals, run the country. How an earth is it even a thing?

It was a political lie to give justification to the incoming Labour party to limit what they could do. It back-fired.

There are probably 6 or 7 ways to make that hole disappear over night from an accountancy point of view.

It’s not an issue or the country would not function.

The real information, which is the reason i’m quietly cautious about any positive or negative feedback for the current government is simple, the markets tell us, the pound has risen since the election, so has the markets, inflation has no increased and is steady, cost of living issues have dropped slightly as well, all factual data collected and plotted.

Is this a sign of a competent and good government, no, it’s 3 months data, but in all the ‘disasters’ that the government have had going by posts on here, the markets haven’t suddenly shown a loss of confidence, until actual, factual policies are implemented, and have enough data to provide a level of assurance, i’ll not be berating them, or celebrating them.

A subject I actually am an expert in!

No, a black hole is an thing, an object if you like – in this case it’s an analogy for something the stuff disappears into.

You measure things with a relevant scaled unit, that enables an understanding of its size to be understood.

The unit for measuring a fiscal black hole is the £.

The size of the fiscal black hole is 22 billion of these units. The purists would want me to express that as 22 gigapounds, or £2.2×10^10

Hope that’s clear?

https://www.nist.gov/pml/owm/metric-si-prefixes

the question seems pretty neutral to me?

Just like the Brexit. It’s not the question that’s the problem it’s what motivates the reply: Spite, greed, callousness, ignorance, stupity, hate, selfishness, racism… .

 the pound has risen since the election,

So what it often jumps around this range. It’s nothing to do with necessarily a good government.

It’s mostly to do with money flooding into risk-on assets away from the dollar when the dollar loses strength.

For most of the past 20 years the £ has been above the current 1.33 – and that was under the useless Tory government.

And GDP has stalled. The biggest metric of the lot.

You’ve done some selective analysis there.

Just like the Brexit. It’s not the question that’s the problem it’s what motivates the reply: Spite, greed, callousness, ignorance, stupity, hate, selfishness, racism… .

All true. But not the point, which was have you looked out of the window and seen what the public are saying. Not why are they saying it.

Public is nowhere near as critical of the gov policies as ‘you lot’ would lead us to think. And any decline in Starmer’s rating is mainly down to the team he supports (if he supported Reading, he wouldn’t need a box, you could put a 30 yard exclusion zone around his seat and no-one would notice. And for the cost of his wife’s pants, you could probably buy the club, if that **** would actually agree to sell it)

The unit for measuring a fiscal black hole is the £.

Then just create 22bn more?

It’s not a black-hole because most governments run on deficits. The money doesn’t disappear – it make it’s way through the public sector into the private sector, until it’s taxed back out.

The black-hole holds about as much truth as the fiscal rules do – an implied restriction that is not a restriction.

Government can just create 22bn more, could instruct the BoE to purchase 22bn worth of bonds, Could tax 22bn back if it absolutely had to.  It has zero tangible effect on future government spending.

Wholly political in every meaningful way.

Is that tacit acceptance that fiscal black holes have a unit of measurement?

And GDP has stalled. The biggest metric of the lot.

You’ve done some selective analysis there.

I quite literally stated it was selective in my post, due to the limited timescales, but no collapse ;o)

So what it often jumps around this range. It’s nothing to do with necessarily a good government.

Which is what he said in the next paragraph but you crack on….

The unit for measuring a fiscal black hole is the £.

I see. So you’re saying that a £1 deficit could be described as a black hole.

You should work for the Treasury.

I said nothing of the sort, I’d say that would be a £1 deficit.

You can have big and small things that are measured with the same unit, that’s how the SI system works. But the black hole isn’t a unit, it’s a metaphorical device.

And no, a pound is not an si unit, but as the standard unit of money in the UK it effectively plays the same role.

A black hole has no standard size so if you wanted to you could call a £1 deficit a black hole and if you’re a child who’s a pound short of being able to buy something it might well be one. In the context of gov finance, that would be daft though. It’s still technically a deficit however.

Public is nowhere near as critical of the gov policies as ‘you lot’ would lead us to think.

I live in a mostly white working class town and I can tell you virtually no one here thinks Starmer or Labour are on their side or will help them in any way. Still I’m sure the response to that here will be ‘they’re all idiots’ or something like that. That might be true, but these are the idiots who will vote for Reform or the tories and leave labour out of power.

For example; it rains.

60mm falls in an hour. Someone might describe that as a downpour, a monsoon, something like that.

Or a gentle summer shower. 0.5mm falls in an hour.

Both are measuring the amount of rainfall in the same unit. But only a fool would call the latter a downpour.

I’d been waiting ages for an analogy.  It never rains, but it pours.

But only a fool would call the latter a downpour.

Now I make the total  1.5mm, is it still a gentle shower?

said nothing of the sort, I’d say that would be a £1 deficit.

So when does it become a black hole?

I live in a mostly white working class town and I can tell you virtually no one here thinks Starmer or Labour are on their side or will help them in any way. Still I’m sure the response to that here will be ‘they’re all idiots’ or something like that

I don’t think we’re quite as bad as your paranoia thinks we are.

However, not everyone lives in a white working class town and so we are exposed to and forced to consider other viewpoints.

So when does it become a black hole?

Some where between 1 and 22000000000.

I’d been waiting ages for an analogy.  It never rains, but it pours.

Very good.

Now I make the total  1.5mm, is it still a gentle shower?

Yes.

Because as i clearly wrote there was a 0.5mm / hour shower, then another, and then another. Still a gentle summer shower, just lasting a long time.

(I don’t know what happened there, I got an error message and refreshed, no idea why it posted 3x)

I live in a mostly white working class town and I can tell you virtually no one here thinks Starmer or Labour are on their side or will help them in any way.

This mindset was rather useful to the Tories and they played a large part in creating it too.

All that being said, did they not notice that pre 2010 seeing a GP, dentist, consultant… and not waiting years for an operation was no where near the Mission Impossible it is today?

There are many other institutions back then that actually worked pretty well too, as opposed to being totally buggered now, social care, schools, prisons, you name it.

If they can’t see the damage the Tory party has done to them and their families I can totally believe that they think they are all the same as they must have their eyes glued shut in all honesty.

It wasn’t nirvana pre 2010 but jeezus, it was a  better functioning country than it is today.

However, not everyone lives in a white working class town and so we are exposed to and forced to consider other viewpoints.

No but it was largely white working class towns returning to Labour who put them into govt. That’s pretty much f***** now.

There are many other institutions back then that actually worked pretty well too, as opposed to being totally buggered now, social care, schools, prisons, you name it.

Yes and we can thank austerity for that. People voted for labour for the very opposite, but they’re getting more of the same. If Reeves doesn’t do an extreme about turn they’re screwed. They probably are already because first impressions last. For the next 5 years they will be known as the freeloading doom and gloom party, lining their pockets while they tell everyone else to tighten their belts. It’s the worst possible combination of optics.

Some where between 1 and 22000000000.

So you’re saying that £22bn is a black hole. On what basis?

@ dazh

To be honest the, “they are all the same” people would be just as negative about Corbyn. That’s the issue, they are genuinely stating what they believe, doesn’t matter the party or policy. Corbyn would have in no way been immune to this effect if he had won a GE.

Their view isn’t based upon logic but ingrained perception in my experience.

Sorry, not sure where to post this so I’ll shove it on here!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0e1q5w0q9po

Baroness Warsi quits Conservatives in the Lords

Former Conservative Party chairwoman Baroness Warsi has resigned from the party in the House of Lords, claiming it has moved to the “far right”.

Starmer to meet Trump for the first time

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2439897mg2o

I hope he creates a good impression.

Kamala Harris unfortunately will miss out.

Sorry, not sure where to post this so I’ll shove it on here!

Surprises me she has lasted this long.

In the spirit of using it for general political news.

Gove is going to be editor of the spectator.

Whilst I suspect most people here arent readers it has had a lot of influence on the tory party over the years with a lot of cross over of staff. Most infamously Johnson.

So you’re saying that £22bn is a black hole. On what basis?

On the basis it’s the term in common parlance. I didn’t define or invent it, I’m not sure whether it was Reeves or someone else. Maybe someone from the NGDB?

Corbyn would have in no way been immune to this effect if he had won a GE.

What’s Corbyn got to do with this? He’s long gone.

What’s Corbyn got to do with this? He’s long gone.

Just the first political name that came to mind as being a long way politically apart from Starmer to illustration that policy isn’t the problem as far as “they are all the same” people go. No negative implications regarding Corbyn, I voted for him twice and still would if he was Labour leader going into a GE.

Essentially I was trying to say that the people that label all politicians as being the same really, really mean what they say.

A section of society simply don’t like or trust politicians, the party is irrelevant as is policy, good or bad .

So you’re saying that £22bn is a black hole. On what basis?

There IS a tacit acknowledgement that fiscal black holes have a unit of measurement. But no overt acknowledgement.

Essentially I was trying to say that the people that label all politicians as being the same really, really mean what they say.

And to a certain extent they are correct. The difference should be what actually happens under the government rather than what the politicians are up to. All those things that have got worse in the last 14 years need to start to be reversed and noticeably get better. If they have noticed it has got worse they will notice it has got better and maybe link that to the government.

We will need to wait 5 years to see if anything has got noticeably better.

On the basis it’s the term in common parlance

So you believe that £22bn is a black hole on the basis that other people have said it is. It’s great to see that you’ve considered this carefully, and haven’t uncritically lapped up something you read.

We will need to wait 5 years to see if anything has got noticeably better

And even if things have got noticeably better, there will still be a substantial number of people who won’t believe it.

 

Uncritically lapped up

Back to the deride tactic again, I see.

Again, I didn’t define it. Others did and it’s become the term in common parlance. Even the MMTers on here have referred to it as a black hole, there’s just then difference on how to deal with it. But to satisfy you I’ll call it a large deficit from now on. Because £22bn is a lot of money.

In other news, I haven’t critically thought about whether 60mm/hr of rain is really a downpour, and have no idea at what rate raining becomes raining heavily becomes a downpour. Have I got to stop using that term as well?

We will need to wait 5 years to see if anything has got noticeably better.

5 years? It should be obvious by now, and if it isn’t, Starmer has failed!

Back to the deride tactic again, I see.

Oh right. And what were you doing when you typed out the incorrect abbreviation I used the other day? You seemed to dislike it when I said you were playing the victim yet here we are again.

Again, I didn’t define it.

I know. You’re parroting it, with no sign of having given it any thought.

In other news, I haven’t critically thought about whether 60mm/hr of rain is really a downpour, and have no idea at what rate raining becomes raining heavily becomes a downpour. Have I got to stop using that term as well?

Start a thread if you like. This one’s about the UK government, and we were discussing the Treasury’s rhetoric.

The term “black hole” in finance refers to an overspent budget. In the UK, the term has been used in recent discussions about the government’s finances and local authority budgets

It’s been a term used for a long time, it’s as above, the gap between an overspent budget and the budget limit.