The Conservative Party leadership vote…

I wouldn’t be too sure about that.

No, I am not sure about that. But I do think it is reasonable to assume. Just like it was reasonable to assume before the general election that they wouldn’t be down to less than 50 MPs.

I will be surprised if the 2029 general election proves to be worse for the Tories than 2024. Not impossible but unlikely, I would have thought.

There appears to be a somewhat exaggerated belief that support for the Tories has, and is, collapsing to a level which isn’t backed up by any compelling evidence.

At one point the general election prediction was that the Tories would  be reduced to just a few dozen MPs with Reform UK either surpassing them in share of the vote or being very close. In the end the share difference between the Tories and Reform UK was as great as the share difference between the Tories and Labour.

Yes, support for the Tories has reached an all-time low which is why it is probably reasonable to assume that their support is likely to increase rather than fall further. Unless there is any evidence to suggest otherwise?

It depends whether you think that the Tory’s could make themselves even less credible or appealing as a potential government than they were under Sunak?

Given who they’re likely about to elect as leader, the direction they’re all travelling in (yet further right) and the stagnant puddle that represents the ‘talent pool’ any leader will have to appoint a shadow cabinet from, I think it’s entirely possible

Quite amusing. I wonder which other dodgy sources the rest of their funding is coming from?

Spare a thought for Lubov Chernukhin, the wife of Russian's former deputy finance minister, who gave a whopping £70,000 to Priti Patel's leadership campaign… only to see her knocked out in the first round of voting…

— Sam Bright (@WritesBright) September 5, 2024

The support for the Tories will return because people will forget just how bad they actually are/were and will migrate back to the bucolic paradise, post WW2 world of that they like to evoke. That and the bull**** suggestion that if you work hard you can be just like them.  And that Labour will steal or your money and give it to others.

The Tories simply appeal to our selfish side.  That’s pretty much all they have to do.

What an utter see you next Tuesday. Words fail me to express my utter revulsion for what now passes for the Torys.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/conservatives-leadership-robert-jenrick-donald-trump-channel-crossings-b1180457.html

Let’s not forget this little gem from the next Tory leader…

Robert Jenrick criticised for saying people shouting ‘Allahu Akbar’ should be arrested

I think Ernesto might be being a tad premature in saying things can’t get worse for the Tories. Not if Robert Jenrick has anything to do with it

Erm, I didn’t say that things can’t get worse for the Tories. I said that it is more likely that support for the Tories will increase then fall from its current level.

I don’t own a crystal ball and I accept that anyway is possible. But I do tend to focus on what is likely.

I am probably being hopeful but this looks to me like a further slide into irrelevance for the tories.  I have followed politics for 50+ years and never seen a rijghtwing party move right, lose an election badly and then move further right withy success.  Know of any example Ernie?

The tories need to be pivoting back to the centre to find votes.  I think this may be the death throes of the tories – but as above it could be wishful thinking

It’s proven that right wing populism can be sold to a percentage of the population when fronted by snake oil salesmen like Farage, Johnson or Tommy Ten Names

But when it gets quite extreme right wing but is peddled by a bloke who looks like a junior at a city accountancy firm, with all the charm, presence and charisma of a damp, soiled flannel, I can’t really see it leading to the resurgence the Tory membership are hoping for.

I get why the membership want him. He reminds them of their grandson, who does something-or-other in the city and seems to have done alright for himself, despite being a bit thick and quite racist, but I can’t see it having much wider appeal to the country

I am really enjoying how fking irrelevant the Tories are

It’s fantastic isn’t it? I’m loving it! Especially when they look like they’re going to do what they did when faced with Tony Blair and decided Iain Duncan-Smith was the man for the job.

‘The Quiet Man’ could end up looking like Churchill compared to ‘Honest Bob’

Know of any example Ernie?

No and to be fair we are entering new territory. It’s me that keeps banging on about July 4th being the worse general election result for the Tories in 200 years.

And with 34% of the vote that is the lowest share of vote for any UK government ever. I have gone back 200 years and I cannot find one example of a government having such a small share of the vote.

So anything is possible in the next 5 years. I was reading an article in the FT yesterday and the author felt that James Cleverly stood a very good chance of winning the leadership election.

I don’t consider Cleverly to be a political heavyweight, TBH I don’t consider any of them to be, but if he became leader he would likely stop the Tory lurch to the right.

I was reading an article in the FT yesterday and the author felt that James Cleverly stood a very good chance of winning the leadership election.

He’s not a cat in hells chance! It’s a 2 horse race

but if he became leader he would likely stop the Tory lurch to the right.

Everything’s relative Ernesto. He might not lurch as far to the right as either of the borderline fascists in Jenrick or Badanoch, but he’ll certainly be heading in their direction. He’s spent the last week banging on about reinstating the Rwanda scheme. Again. Something he was previously (correctly) on the record describing as ‘batshit’, until it suited him not to.

It tells you everything you need to know about the present state of the Tory Party that Jimmy Dimly is considered to be their Biggest Hitter. He was only ever an over-promoted bag carrier. He’s as thick as mince.

Pretty much the entire Tory party had concluded, even before they lost the election, that all their woes were because they weren’t right wing/Farage/Tommy Robinson enough for the electorate

Since the election there has been no discussion and there won’t be during this leadership campaign. It’s a done deal. Job jobbed. Whoever can take them furthest into Farage-land wins. That’s why Honest Bob is out front. He’s just about batshit enough for ‘the membership’ to anoint

You’ve got to feel sorry for Mel Stride, bless him. He’s being forced into this far right posturing and it’s like watching a suburban Geography teacher advocating genocide. And that’s exactly where the Tory party are. It’s ****ing brilliant! And pathetic in equal measure. The political wilderness beckons….

This is a pretty terrifying article by Peter Oborne about the mood and direction of the Tory party at present. They’re undisputedly now headed out to the wilder reaches of the far right.

UK Tory leadership race lurches into dangerous far-right territory

In exciting news: Mel Stride has been knocked out of the leadership race today, when it became obvious that not even Mel Stride knew who Mel Stride was

Call the Samaritans

No one cares who will lead the Tories next, not even them https://t.co/cmbKsPY0Xe

— John Crace (@JohnJCrace) September 9, 2024

the Tory told Sky News: “The Conservative party’s sister party in the United States is the Republican party.
“So it’s natural that we would lean in that direction,” he said.

with all the charm, presence and charisma of a damp, soiled nappy

FTFY.

To be honest, if Mel Stride had just slipped down the back of the Tory party sofa, I doubt anyone would have noticed – let alone cared.

It’s going to be Jenrick IMO. And, despite having a sharp haircut and losing a few kilos, he’s an easy target for Starmer. As they all are.

Jenrick was a remainer – and originally known as ‘Robert Generic’. He will try to present his Damascene conversion to neo-fascism as being a natural evolution for a concerned traditionalist. But we all know it was a Johnson-esque move designed for personal advancement and enrichment. This is even easier to demonstrate as his crooked deal with Dirty Desmond was one of the first things he did when he had a more lucrative ministerial portfolio.

Painting over kids murals in an immigration centre is just a laughable example of the depths a crook will go to in order to keep his benefactors sweet.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/robert-jenrick-richard-desmond-housing-tory-donor-westferry-a9631876.html

Yes, it looks like jenrick doesn’t it. Barring any weird vote lending shenanigans I think he’ll be up against tagnut, and to be honest I suspect he’ll make the final two due to vote lending shenanigans! It certainly won’t be on ability, iirc the man has never held a domestic brief, in Government or opposition.

The only one with any sense of relatability with the real world is cleverly, and I suspect he’s being thwarted by vote lending shenanigans to keep him out of the final 2.

The torys are going down.

My big concern is that no matter how batshit crazy they get, they are still seen as the “only” alternative to Labour due to our stupid political history and FPTP.

Labour have to be seen to be starting to deliver, and soon, or their critics, left and right, will chip away at their borrowed support from the last election.

The LibDems and Greens also need to be thinking strategically towards the next election. A joint coalition approach may give them enough clout to take on an obviously hard right Tory party.

Doesn’t really matter who the next leader of the Tories is, as they’ll have at least four more before the next general election.

The next Tory prime minister is not an MP yet

Yes he is, just not a Tory one ..

It looks like Kemi is first out of the traps in the ‘can we be more Reform than Reform’ competition that Nige has lured them all into. She’s gone full Enoch.

I think it’s safe to say that the voters in the centre who abandoned the party for the Lib Dems have already been forgotten as the leadership candidates stampede off to the Faragist far right, with the man-frog leading them by the nose like he has been doing for years.

He’s de facto leader of the Tory party now anyway, as he’s clearly calling the shots. Whichever of the 4 sock puppets they put in place as their figurehead is really neither here nor there

Not all cultures equally valid, says Kemi Badenoch

Interesting that she’s against people “making money”, and referring to people just trying to earn a living.

Indeed. The obvious question to her is … “so you’re now objecting to other people doing exactly what your family did then?”

Its Liz Truss levels of delusional detachment. Labour are hardly having a great start, to say the least, but it looks like this weeks Tory conference will provide some respite for Starmer and Reeves if this is the level of soul-searching that’s followed they’re electoral mauling

Kemi Badenoch, "People didn't understand what we stood for"

Trevor Philips, "The public knew exactly what you stood for.. Parties under Boris Johnson.. Market chaos under Liz Truss.. Record immigration figures under Rishi Sunak.. The public knew what you were about and that's… pic.twitter.com/Ra8aBgkA22

— Farrukh (@implausibleblog) September 29, 2024

It looks like Kemi is first out of the traps in the ‘can we be more Reform than Reform’ competition that Nige has lured them all into. She’s gone full Enoch.

She’s a nutter. That alone may attract many votes.

From the BBC article – “I am struck for example, by the number of recent immigrants to the UK who hate Israel. That sentiment has no place here.”

So what she plan to do with those of the indigenous population who hate Israel?

She’s a nutter. That alone may attract many votes.

From the BBC article – “I am struck for example, by the number of recent immigrants to the UK who hate Israel. That sentiment has no place here.”

So what she plan to do with those of the indigenous population who hate Israel?

She’s such an utter tosser that there’s every chance she might win.

And she’s a gift to the “I’m not racist, but…” mob.

Where to even start with Kemi’s latest thought-splurge on maternity pay?

That she’s now taking the Boris Johnson approach… say something on the record during an interview then immediately deny you ever said it

That we live in a country with an ageing population and a falling birth rate and you don’t want any immigrants either so let’s reduce peoples ability to have children?

You don’t want to spend ‘other peoples taxes’ on maternity pay, but if they’re being payed to go on maternity leave that means they’re working and paying taxes?

Kemi really isn’t very bright, is she? How many potential voters has she just alienated with this nonsense?

I expect there are more fantastic groundbreaking, vote-winning ideas to come from her and Honest Bob this week

So Kemi Badenoch has had a look around at the burning wreckage that is this country and decided that the real problem we face is maternity pay

Good heavenshttps://t.co/4tal9dP6a5

— Liam Thorp (@LiamThorpECHO) September 29, 2024

she’s now taking the Saint Keith approach with… say something on the record during an interview then immediately deny you ever said it

Like this you mean?

Kemi really isn’t very bright, is she? How many potential voters has she just alienated with this nonsense?

TBF, if she’s targeting Reform voters then all she has to say is that the thought of small boats capsizing in the Channel gives her the horn. Job done.

Surprised the Tories are going hard on financial sleaze when Jenrick is getting a 75K donation from an offshored company with no employees.

Or maybe it is Tories who don’t want him as leader.

Anyhow, the next leader is just the Hague/Duncan-Smith/Howard placeholder. Might not even make it as far as the next election.

I hear she wants to reduce maternity benefits because she thinks they’re responsible for people having fewer children or something. What a lunatic. It’ll probably go down well with the party membership.

We just need to get back to the golden age of no contraception and sky high infant mortality. Vote Kemi!

It would appear that she’s actually just parroting the latest wheeze dreamt up by the Tufton Street mob to ‘reduce red tape’ on business

I can’t wait to see her as leader.

Her positions seem to have the structural integrity of wet cake

And then there’s the extreme irritation at being asked reasonable questions

Heard on the radio this morning, “if Kemi Badenoch gets elected then every labour MP will have to register it as a gift”.

That video that binners posted of the Sky News interview.

That mad blinking Badenoch is doing whilst the interviewer is pointing out she is full of shit… There is some deranged/ angry stuff going on in that noggin!

Like most of the hat right, she is perma-angry isn’t she?

It’s like the apprentice, bunch of clueless gobshites and you want all of them to lose.

Cheer up everyone, Jonathan Gullis appears to not be worth the £5m that was claimed before the election. And can’t even get re-hired as a teacher!

Jonathan Gullis discovering to his cost that if you call your former teaching colleagues "Bolsheviks and commies" for striking (as he did in Jan 2023) – they might not then fall over themselves to offer you a job https://t.co/lTDeomaVOI

— Otto English (@Otto_English) September 30, 2024

Imagine him turning up as your supply teacher, you’d make his life an absolute living hell.

Maternity leave is straight out of the US nutter playbook (though at least there it seems to be knowingly tactical and all about positioning to prevent improvements rather than substantially rolling back what already exists)