The Conservative Party leadership vote…

And Priti Patel has been knocked out at the first round!

Don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out…

Question is whether she will now join ukip.

It’s great. A Tory loses every round !!

And Priti Patel has been knocked out at the first round!

How about we line up the remaining 5 candidates and have them walk past every person in the country, then we can all take a turn at knocking them out?

I want it to be more like the Hunger Games…

There must be something in the Tory background about her – presumably leaking, backstabbing or similar.

She came last behind Mel Stride. The only candidate without a regularly used nickname – because, well, why make the effort?

Apparently all the Priti fans have deserted her for Honest Bob since he became a Suella Braverman tribute act.

Only the nastiest will win the poisoned chalice of the Nasty Party leadership and Bob has gone full ‘hang ‘em and flog ‘em!’. He’s also middle-aged, Oxbridge, male and white with no chin, a terrible haircut and a pinstriped suit. He’s a shoe-in!

I put a bet on him months ago at 5/1. He’s now evens. I bet Kemi is livid. All that nastyness, and for what?

More disappointed that emoji’s are back

Rats in a sack.

Only a lunatic will be left standing

More disappointed that emoji’s are back

Only because I have an online source that works! Anyway, emoji’s are a handy way to say something that a bunch of words would be otherwise required.

Why can’t they all lose?

I bet Kemi is livid

Rookie error – Kemi is ALWAYS livid.

It’s all a bit irrelevant really  I doubt whoever wins will be leading them into the next election.

Why not?

Because the Tories love a good internal fight and unless there’s a significant and sustained change in Tory fortunes they will ditch the next leader under the guise of delivering someone with fresh ideas before the next election.

Fairy nuff. Although with the Tories at 24% at the last general election, the lowest share of the vote in 200 years, unless Labour are spectacularly successful in government I can’t see how the Tories’s  fortunes can’t change in their favour.

The only way is up for them and under those circumstances I would have thought that a leadership challenge would be very unlikely.

I’m w Stumpy, cos it’s obvious that these idiots are campaigning on the same issues, banging the same drum that list them the last election so spectacularly. The party will work out at some point that whoever wins the leadership is tarnished with that election loss, and they’ll need someone new, with a different story to tell…..just don’t know who that person is yet…as there aren’t any centrists left

Agreed the Torys would have to work hard to sink lower but Reform could help them with that. I did say they’d need significant and sustained improvement, not just a slow slide upwards.

The only way is up for them and under those circumstances I would have thought that a leadership challenge would be very unlikely.

With the spectre of RUK sat just across from them on the same benches, press speculation about Nigel muscling in over the next 5 years and no real sign of unity within a party that has knifed their leader roughly every 36 months since 2015?

I wouldn’t be so sure…

Whichever headbanger gets the job of head git for the next few years they’re going to be praying for some real disasters under SKS, and ideally another recession/global downturn to really suppress living standards. Labour have taken over a pretty low point, there’s an argument to say “the only way is up” or you know “things can only get better” for them too.

The best hope for the Tories in 2029 is really reliant on collective amnesia and some really unimaginable economic events pushing us back into their arms…

I suspect Reform UK ate into the Tory vote about as much as they are like to on July 4th. If a Tory voter didn’t vote Reform UK at the last general election then I think they are probably even less likely to in 2029.

Why would a Tory voter who did not vote Reform UK last general election do so after 5 years of a Labour government?

If Reform UK eat into any party’s vote over the next 5 years I would expect it to be Labour.

To look where the Tory party is headed… they just rejected Priti Patel – PRITI ****ING PATEL – because she want right wing enough

They’re all now just so absolutely hatstand that by the time of the next election Reform could be the comparatively moderate option as they all compete with each other. Should we be using immigrants to be cast in concrete to form the foundations of bridge supports or should they be launched from a massive trebuchet into an active volcano on live tv

Longarmedmonkey
Full Member
I want it to be more like the Hunger Games…

This has merit. They’ve literally killed people that were sanctioned or couldn’t face the dehumanising PIP process.

Kemi Badanoch has chosen to send out Chris Phelps onto the airwaves to be her representative on earth. A man so profoundly stupid and utterly clueless i’d be amazed if he’s capable of fastening his own shoelaces up in the morning.

He was absolutely shredded by Victoria Derbyshire on Newsnight the other night where he stated, somewhat ludicrously, that Kemi Badanoch is ‘a politician to unite the party and wider society’

It was then pointed out to the half-wit, with lots of quotes about ‘Islamists are taking over Britain’ , that all she’s ever done is engage in culture wars and stoke division and she can’t unite people as she could happily start an argument in an empty room

You mean Chris Philp :

Ol’ Brown Nose is back! Philp jumps into latest Tory racism row

The Croydon MP who was once described as “a nose in search of a bum” appears to have alighted on a new posterior for his attention.

Philp, the Conservative MP for Croydon South who as a Treasury minister notoriously helped to crash the British economy during Liz Truss’s disastrous 49 days as Prime Minister, resurfaced on national broadcast media last night, shortly after announcing that he would be supporting Badenoch’s bid to become Tory Party leader.

With an endorsement like that, what could possibly go wrong?

Last night, Philp was back to his accustomed role from his time in the Tory Government, as a punchbag on the media circuit for his notional boss.

If a Tory voter didn’t vote Reform UK at the last general election then I think they are probably even less likely to in 2029.

Why would a Tory voter who did not vote Reform UK last general election do so after 5 years of a Labour government?

Eh? Traditional Tories stayed home harder right Tories flipped to Reform, who knows what will motivate them in 5 years…

Labour played the GE safe, it was much harder to pick holes in absent policies, all they really did was point at the Tory party and say “anything is better than this lot” and TBH they were right.

If Reform UK eat into any party’s vote over the next 5 years I would expect it to be Labour.

I don’t think you can predict much anymore TBH, but yeah sure RUK are out to disrupt aren’t they there are disaffected people and racists in all walks of life ripe to be influenced.

2019 demonstrated that traditional voting patterns and old wisdom on how certain demographics or regions should vote are not to be trusted anymore. But the Tories fought the GE by chasing the Reform narrative and talking points, Stopping boats and sending people to Rwanda and trying to sell themselves as a force for change whilst very much being the political establishment.

Labour’s win wasn’t as definitive as it should have been in terms of actual vote share, but the Tory loss was certainly substantial and exacerbated to some extent by RUK splitting the right leaning vote as well as some “natural Tories” just stating home.

My point wasn’t so much about the rise of Reform (that’s really just a symptom) more that whoever is leader the Tories are a very damaged  brand with the wider public, and the splits and psychodramas of the last decade are still being played out.

They are out of touch today, and the same handful of dusty old buffers that gifted us Liz Truss as PM are about to pIck a leader again… Let’s be honest, they’re all still pining for Boris but he’s not an option is he… Yet. 

I don’t think you can predict much anymore TBH,

No, you can never predict general election results with any accuracy. But just like you could be reasonably certain that Labour would win a landslide on July 4th it is reasonable to assume that the Tories have probably hit rock bottom.

I am not predicting anything but I suspect that over the coming five years support for the Tories will probably increase from their unprecedented low point, and support for Labour is likely to fall.

Support for Labour fell significantly in four consecutive general elections following their last landslide victory. Although obviously Starmer could prove to be more successful than Blair and reverse that.

I am not predicting anything but I suspect that over the coming five years support for the Tories will probably increase from their unprecedented low point, and support for Labour is likely to fall.

Support for Labour fell significantly in four consecutive general elections following their last landslide victory. Although obviously Starmer could prove to be more successful than Blair and reverse that.

Possibly, but remember, the Tories have now got RUK to fight against as well as each other, so who can possibly predict how that’s going to pan out over the next four years.
And who knows, RUK might easily descend into its own party of disunity and dissent over what ideology it’s supposed to be following, with both parties shouting into their own echo chambers.

The latest poll (BMG) gives Labour a 4% lead over the Tories.

Keir Starmer’s brief political honeymoon – if he had one at all – appears to be over, with Labour’s vote intention slipping for the second month in a row. The Reform Party appears to be the main beneficiary. Its share is growing, nearing 19%—matching the joint highest level we’ve recorded for Farage’s party.

BMG/ The i poll: The Labour Party ‘Honeymoon’ and Voting Intention

Labour had a 10% lead over the Tories at the general election, although it might well winden under the next Tory leader I am far from convinced that it is a certainty and that there will be another leadership election before the next general election.

Tories just need to concede that 14% of people are happy to vote Reform and put a more moderate leader in who will take all the votes back from Starmer as if he carries on as he has so far for next 5 years there will be a lot of “**** that, I am going back to voting tory where my natural home is”

I work with a lot of traditional tory voters and all they seem to care about is any impact to their pensions under Labour. Yes they are glad to see the back of the tory party as it was but still care more about their pension/wealth than what is going on in wider society, i.e. typical tories.

it is reasonable to assume that the Tories have probably hit rock bottom.

I’m not so sure, as kerley noted there’s still this RW tension where some seem to think they need to chase RUK, while others want to pull back to a more moderate “one nation” version of conservatism. What they do now have is some time to figure all of this out

Set against that Reeve and SKS are doing their best to take the shine off as quickly as possible and get people muttering about “new austerity”. I think Labour are trying to do some early “expectation management” and play the same “cupboards are bare thanks to the last lot” game that the Cameron government did (and was still being tried by Rishi) if they spend the whole of the next 5 years doing that then yes they’ve handed the country back to the Tories.

But in the same way you think the Tories will start a bounce back soon, I reckon Labour will have to drop this rather depressing narrative within the next 18 months or risk really damaging their prospects.

The latest poll (BMG) gives Labour a 4% lead over the Tories.

Mostly, I suspect, because the bulk of the population is simply taking a long, gentle breath and being mildly grateful that we no longer have to endure the daily updates from the ongoing Tory psychodrama.

All I’ve ever wished for is a government that simply gets on with running the country in a calm, competent, compassionate and measured manner without turning every decision into some sort of ‘culture war’ episode. I’m not saying the Starmer’s regime is optimal in every way, but it sure as hell beats the last 15-odd years of lunacy.

The Tory leadership fight is, for most sane people, largely irrelevant right now. All you need to know is that the madder and more reactionary of the final two candidates will win the ballot of party members, so the task for the candidates is to walk a fine line between being bat shit crazy enough to win the ‘popular’ party vote, while still not quite so obviously deranged as to alienate their fellow Tory MPs.

Predicting what’s going to happen in five years time is fiction.

it is reasonable to assume that the Tories have probably hit rock bottom.

I disagree.   Maybe the have but with reform taking votes on the right along with Starmer and Reeves making labour into tory lite thus taking votes in the centre coupled with FPTP theycould equally be squeezed into extinction.  Electing amy of the candidates bar perhaps tugnut will reduce their wider appeal

I disagree.

Well there isn’t much evidence that Tory support is falling any further, in fact none.

I reckon anyone who voted Tory on July 4th is likely going to vote Tory come hell or high water.

It reminds of how some people on here were speculating that the Tories could be down to less than 50 MPs. Yes in theory anything can happen, and maybe Tory support will slump further, but that’s not really the same as saying that it is likely, as has been suggested.

it is reasonable to assume that the Tories have probably hit rock bottom.

I wouldn’t be too sure about that. The membership are about to elect as leader a man referred to around Westminster somewhat sarcastically as  ‘Honest Bob’ – A white middle-aged, Oxbridge, ultra-establishment member already tainted with highly publicised sleaze and corruption, giving tens of millions in highly dubious tax breaks to his mate Richard Desmond (what other skeletons are in the wardrobe?)

A slippery, pin-striped, chinless Alan B’Stard tribute act who has all the warmth and relatability of a Columbian Cartel Boss and who’s political intentions seem to be to try and out-Farage Farage on the far right, with a nod to Tommy Robinson

I know the senile, racist membership love all that shit, but I can’t see the public buying into that in droves. If the Tory party think that’s the way back into power – and they clearly do – then the next few years should be fun to watch.

Just remember what happened to the Canadian tories

Sunak is currently doing a very good job as leader of the opposition. Reasonable, clear, strong… despite being such a big loser, I’d be surprised if his successor gives the party any kind of a bounce… whoever wins from this lot… they’ll need a new line up to choose from well before the next general election, even if the next few years are difficult for the incumbent government.

Rishi – who we all thought would be long gone to California by now – is a different person from the peevish, nasty little droid that led the election campaign so catastrophically.

I suspect that’s a reflection of what trying to lead the present rabble of Tory MPs does to anyone. The next leader will have an even harder job. Trying to get the fractious ill-disciplined factions (the 5 families?) to unite behind them

Good luck with that!

The membership are about to elect as leader a man referred to around Westminster somewhat sarcastically as  ‘Honest Bob’ – A white middle-aged, Oxbridge, ultra-establishment member already tainted with highly publicised sleaze and corruption,

I thought the membership were tipped to vote for Badenoch?  The MPs might prefer Jenrick but the membership couldn’t pick him out of a line up.

Not one of them from a state school, all with a background in excess of anything most of us have had. Well I thought this till I saw Kemi Badenoch. Her back ground actually looks reasonable! Heck knows how she honestly got to this point. I mean an Engineer ;-(

My only note is that the Conservative MPs are making the shortlist for the party members then to vote on.  Hardly a reasonable process in the least and even Labour have something more akin to a process that seems vaguely democratic…

JeZ

I thought the membership were tipped to vote for Badenoch?  The MPs might prefer Jenrick but the membership couldn’t pick him out of a line up.

On the contrary… He’s been the bookies favourite for weeks now since he suddenly went VERY right wing to tickle the belly of the racist membership. Badanoch has been going backwards since the membership were offered their comfort zone. Someone who is just as unpleasant as Kemi but is also pale, male and stale. He’s a shoe in.

I put this in last October when Kemi was streets ahead and won’t be cashing it out. betting on the rolling chaos of the Tory party has been very lucrative over the last few years. I called Truss a year in advance at 10/1 when apparently Rishi was nailed on