Osbourne says no to currency union.

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  • Osbourne says no to currency union.
  • oldbloke
    Member

    it seems mostly the englandshirists that are pro no and the scotlandshirists are mostly pro yes.

    Perhaps on this thread, although discussions socially the last few weeks suggest about 60% no amongst the Scotlandshirists, as you put it. The split there is more towards No being those that have thought about it lots and the Yes being those that like the principle and don’t want to think about how it might actually have to work.

    irelanst
    Member

    Yes being those that like the principle and don’t want to think about how it might actually have to work.

    You mean the SNP? πŸ˜€

    Premier Icon seosamh77
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    oldbloke – Member
    it seems mostly the englandshirists that are pro no and the scotlandshirists are mostly pro yes.
    Perhaps on this thread, although discussions socially the last few weeks suggest about 60% no amongst the Scotlandshirists, as you put it. The split there is more towards No being those that have thought about it lots and the Yes being those that like the principle and don’t want to think about how it might actually have to work.

    Maybe, more than willing to admit that my views and natural bias tend to yes.

    Junkyard
    Member

    1) clear opposition to currency union in rUK * and (2) the responsibility of the gov or the rUK is to protect/maximise the interests of rUK – its that simple. They would have no direct responsibility towards the interests of a foreign country. It would be naive to assume that there would be a nice, smooth and easy adjustment process (for either side).

    He is correct the union will only happen if rUK choose it and there are considerable disadvantages to them in agreeing to it. Will they I dont know tbh as it is a political decision rather than just an economic one. Knowing the truth is hard as currently they wont say or do anything that helps the yes vote. What they will do at the time is guess work largely though the prudent approach is to assume no they wont but it is only a probably.

    Basic argument, without a lender of last resort, banks wouldn’t take (much) less risk as there is no back-up. Nice theory, but practice over centuries says the opposite.

    Examples ? It seems counter intuitive to say this – not saying it is wrong as I dont know.

    The split there is more towards No being those that have thought about it lots and the Yes being those that like the principle and don’t want to think about how it might actually have to work.

    So what you are saying is that hose who agree with you have “thought about it”…confirmation bias somewhat.

    I tend to agree yes is an emotive vote about self determination rather than an economic or logic one, FWIW the same applies to the EU as well and those who wish to leave.

    oldbloke
    Member

    So what you are saying is that hose who agree with you have “thought about it”…confirmation bias somewhat.

    Far from it. I’ve asked people why they take the view they do. Those who say no list off a bunch of reasons. Those who say yes just say they think it would be better and when asked how “better” would be achieved have little or nothing beyond saying local decision making is better. I’d have loved them to have more substantive thinking behind their views so we could have had a debate, but there wasn’t much to work with.

    piemonster
    Member

    was kind of after a linky supporting ben’s assertion

    Do you see what i did there

    konabunny
    Member

    How do you quantify uncertainty?

    Banks, speculators and investors do this literally all day every day eg when deciding which bonds to why and where to locate new investment. There is a massive, massive industry to do this.

    The Harvard prof is addressing moral hazard hat incentivized risky behavior when there is a safety net (where the government interferes with the market). We don’t have to imagine what would happen in a system without lenders of last resort – you can just look at bank behavior in markets where there isn’t an effective central bank capable of intervening.

    Scotland (or any other country) doesn’t need the permission of the UK to use the pound. That is bobbins. It would need agreement determine monetary policy. Query whether that’s a big loss when you only have a tenth of a voice anyway.

    Premier Icon aracer
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    konabunny wrote:

    Scotland (or any other country) doesn’t need the permission of the UK to use the pound. That is bobbins. It would need agreement determine monetary policy. Query whether that’s a big loss when you only have a tenth of a voice anyway.

    At the moment the economies of both parts are quite similar, and it isn’t in the interests of the rest of the UK to have a monetary policy which would harm the Scottish economy, no matter how little “say” they might have in the matter. If I understand correctly one of the points of iS is to allow them to do things differently, and clearly it would no longer be in the interests of rUK to worry about the effect of monetary policy on Scotland. I wonder if there’s any recent precedent of a currency area where the parties have different economies and the monetary policy which suits one doesn’t suit the other, which we could use to see what happens?

    Of course Scotland doesn’t need permission to use the pound – or if that is awkward politically they could have their own Scottish pound which is tied to the rUK pound. That would be plan B and plan C I think, but those don’t apparently exist (and opinion among the SNP advisors appears to be divided over the merits of either option). There does seem to be a lot of confusion over the idea that Scotland using the pound has been ruled out (I wonder if it’s in some people’s interests to further that confusion), when it’s simply the currency union which has.

    Premier Icon teamhurtmore
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    A tenth of a voice versus no voice – you decide. There is plenty of recent and relevant evidence to help you make the sensible decision.

    I wonder if there’s any recent precedent of a currency area where the parties have different economies and the monetary policy which suits one doesn’t suit the other, which we could use to see what happens?

    πŸ˜€ but not sure it works without a smiley!!! πŸ˜€

    Junkyard
    Member

    I think he means the Euro zone

    That said it would seem fair to say the ruk and iS are harmonised currently

    Premier Icon epicyclo
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    When these guys agree, Independence is nearly a done deal. πŸ™‚

    Rangers Fans for Independence

    Celtic Fans for Independence

    duckman
    Member

    I am confused. The paper today has a factual,balanced story that in the event of a yes vote Scotland would have as few as 3,000 uni places for Scots as English students would use the EU agreement to flood over the border. But I thought that on the second 10 or so pages of this thread all the clever English people on here were telling us we would not be part of the EU. Or is that just an example of another non scary project no-fear story and I should not worry myself about it?

    Oh it is all so difficult! What is a poor simple Teuchter like me to do in September?

    dragon
    Member

    I don’t think anyone sensible has ever said Scotland won’t be part of the EU, what is debatable is what conditions are imposed to join it, and most would expect the Euro to be one.

    Once part of the EU, then the Scottish Uni’s will have to let in people from England, Wales and N.I. under normal EU conditions. The SNP have tried claiming they’d keep the current system in place once independent, but that clearly would be in breach of EU law.

    ernie_lynch
    Member

    all the clever English people on here were telling us we would not be part of the EU.

    English ? Why English ? You appear to be assuming that all those who question the wisdom of Scottish independence must be English, why’s that ?

    Alistair Darling is a Scottish MP, lives in Scotland, represents Scottish constituents, and will vote in the Scottish referendum.

    This is what he says : Scotland faces nine-year wait to join EU

    The need to reduce the argument for Scottish independence to the level of Scottish v English smacks of desperation. Presumably this desperation is due to a lack of a sensible strategy which has looked at all the consequences of independence in detail.

    There’s certainly no carefully thought out ‘business plan’ by the yes campaign to offer the referendum voters.

    Junkyard
    Member

    You appear to be assuming that all those who question the wisdom of Scottish independence must be English, why’s that ?

    He spoke of on here and as far as I am aware that is broadly true. Sadlly Alistair Darling does not post on here.

    I do agree that reducing it to nationality is pointless but i think his broader point was the no campaign is more “english” and runs scare stories that are utter BS via a campaign called project fear.

    ernie_lynch
    Member

    Yes I’m aware that Alistair Darling doesn’t post on here. But as I said, he appears[/b] to be assuming that all those who question the wisdom of Scottish independence must be English.

    Of course I might have got that wrong and duckman fully understands that the problem for the Yes campaign isn’t opposition from the English and Welsh, but from Scottish voters.

    Some 46% of those outside of Scotland asked to imagine waking up and finding the country independent from the rest of the UK said they “wouldn’t mind”, while 34% said they would be dismayed and 11% said they would be delighted.

    When adults in Scotland were asked the same question, there was more evidence of the task facing Alex Salmond, the leader of the Scottish National Party, and the Yes campaign – with 46% saying they would be dismayed and just a quarter saying they would be delighted.

    http://news.sky.com/story/1201211/scottish-independence-46-percent-dont-mind

    Premier Icon teamhurtmore
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    ernie_lynch – Member
    English ? Why English ?

    Crikey, Ernie I know you said you haven’t been following the debate that closely, but I am surprised that you need to ask this!!!! The answer is obvious…….

    Premier Icon epicyclo
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    All this uncertainty business.

    How on earth did all those countries which fought for independence survive? Surely they faced much more uncertainty than the Scots will with a negotiated independence. Or is this just another version of the Scots are stupider than other people?

    Can anyone show an example of the EU expelling 5 million citizens? There is not a precedent for Scotland. The EU has shown a pragmatic approach in the past and it will again. Something will be negotiated, and sooner rather than later. This is just fear tactics.

    But if we don’t get into the EU, what’s the problem with that? There’s other similar sized European countries flourishing outwith the EU. Heck, even the Channel Islands are not EU members, and they’re tiny. Or is this once again just another version of the Scots are too stupid argument?

    ernie_lynch
    Member

    How on earth did all those countries which fought for independence survive?

    Well for a start they weren’t part of the UK. This theory that Scotland is somehow the last colony of the British Empire is absurd.

    Of course Scotland can be independent, and of course it shouldn’t have too much trouble joining the EU. The uncertainty is whether it will benefit Scotland. In the opinion of many it won’t.

    dragon
    Member

    Can anyone show an example of the EU expelling 5 million citizens?

    Scottish people won’t stop being in the EU for the simple reason even if Scotland wasn’t in it, you’d just use a rUK passport, which you;d be entitled too. It’s the trade deals, rebates, currency etc. that will change for an iScotland regardless of whether it’s in or out of the EU. These could have profound effects on everything from companies of all industries, farmers, fishermen, and other things like EU money for regeneration projects.

    Junkyard
    Member

    he appears to be assuming that all those who question the wisdom of Scottish independence must be English

    You sure ? not sure how he could have made it clearer it was reference to here tbh

    all the clever English people on here were telling us we would not be part of the EU

    duckman
    Member

    ernie_lynch – Member

    all the clever English people on here were telling us we would not be part of the EU.

    English ? Why English ? You appear to be assuming that all those who question the wisdom of Scottish independence must be English, why’s that ?

    Ernie; see JY’s post. And if you can be bothered, about pages 10-20 of the thread.

    Of course I might have got that wrong and duckman fully understands that the problem for the Yes campaign isn’t opposition from the English and Welsh, but from Scottish voters.

    Yes,you did get that wrong,you lot can’t vote in Sept,only folk up here can,hence stories like today’s Uni scare. “my clever English people” quote was based on the number of posts started with “You are dreaming if you think you will get into Europe.” or words to that effect. Perhaps I am barking up the wrong tree, and there are lots of Spanish people who want to ensure they keep Catalonia posting on here. It is of course also to be commended that nobody from the Westminster Government has attempted to influence the decision making progress in any way.

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    epicyclo wrote:

    Can anyone show an example of the EU expelling 5 million citizens?

    Have I missed something here? Isn’t it you voting to leave, rather than us voting to throw you out?

    But if we don’t get into the EU, what’s the problem with that?

    <shrug> don’t expect me to try and argue the advantages of being in the EU, but there seem plenty on your side who consider it essential.

    whatnobeer
    Member

    Why wouldn’t Scotland want to be in the EU? The benefits would outweigh the losses. Though we want independence from Westminster we don’t want to be isolationist. That doesn’t work. The No campaign are trying their best to paint it as a choice between being part of everything or being part of nothing, which is so far from the truth.

    ernie_lynch
    Member

    Despite all your protestations duckman, you give every impression that you see the Scottish independence debate as a Scottish v English issue.

    And misgivings about an independent Scotland’s EU status isn’t restricted to “you lot” who can’t vote, as my link shows.

    duckman
    Member

    Whatever you want Ernie,as JY pointed out to you I used the term “on this thread” but hey-ho, if you want to reduce my reasons for wanting independence,which have been stated on this,and many other threads a number of times to a dislike of the English,carry on. Oh and good to see your multiple bans haven’t stopped your selective use of quoting to try and score cheap points.

    “you lot” who can’t vote

    looks slightly different to

    Yes,you did get that wrong,you lot can’t vote in Sept,only folk up here can,hence stories like today’s Uni scare.

    which is what I actually wrote.
    And just to clear another point up, “folk” refers to all current residents of Scotland who can participate in the September poll,regardless of country of birth.

    Junkyard
    Member

    Despite all your protestations duckman, you give every impression that you see the Scottish independence debate as a Scottish v English issue.

    No he does not nor does he even come close to suggesting that neither in what you quoted nor in this thread
    Its a very weak attack and I am not sure why you have decided to play the man with a made up attack.

    ernie_lynch
    Member

    Whatever you want Ernie,as JY pointed out to you I used the term “on this thread”

    Yes I was fully aware that you said “on this thread”, I never doubted that. I pointed out that misgivings about an independent Scotland’s EU status isn’t restricted to ‘clever English people’ on this thread.

    I provided a link to comments made by a Scottish politician (which junkyard helpfully pointed out doesn’t post on here) to show that.

    I’m glad to hear you claim that you don’t see the Scottish independence debate as a Scottish v English issue, that’s excellent. I do however retain the right not to be fully convinced.

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    junkyard wrote:

    I am not sure why you have decided to play the man with a made up attack.

    Not been here long? πŸ˜‰

    Premier Icon epicyclo
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    ernie_lynch – Member
    “How on earth did all those countries which fought for independence survive?”
    Well for a start they weren’t part of the UK. This theory that Scotland is somehow the last colony of the British Empire is absurd…

    I’m not just talking about countries which got independence from the UK. There’s plenty other examples. Nothing to do where they got their independence from, they would have faced far more uncertainty, and yet somehow they have gone forward.

    I agree. Scotland is not a colony. We are a country in a bipartisan agreement with England and its territories (at 1707) to form the United Kingdom.

    Premier Icon aracer
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    <whoosh> – you know what that sound is epicyclo?

    I’d imagine those countries which actually fought for their independence had rather less rosy prospects if they hadn’t done so than ones which have a nice civilised vote on the issue.

    Premier Icon epicyclo
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    aracer – Member
    <whoosh> – you know what that sound is epicyclo?…

    The air leaking from your head? πŸ™‚

    duckman
    Member

    That WAS a good comeback.

    Premier Icon muddydwarf
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    How will the vote work then?
    Will it be a simple majority, if so how would it go if it were 50.3 % yes, 49.7% no for example?
    Is there a minimum figure at which Independence is achieved?

    bencooper
    Member

    Aha, you have spotted a problem – the Edinburgh Agreement allows the Scottish Government to hold a referendum on independence. It does not bind the Westminster Government to honour the result of that referendum, and some Westminster ministers have hinted that they might not. In the event of a close vote, Westminster could argue that the referendum has failed to deliver a “decisive expression of the views of the people of Scotland”, as required by the Edinburgh Agreement.

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    bencooper – Member
    Aha, you have spotted a problem – the Edinburgh Agreement allows the Scottish Government to hold a referendum on independence. It does not bind the Westminster Government to honour the result of that referendum, and some Westminster ministers have hinted that they might not…

    That could result in a small amount of unrest…

    Premier Icon aracer
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    Ben Cooper wrote:

    In the event of a close vote, Westminster could argue that the referendum has failed to deliver a “decisive expression of the views of the people of Scotland”, as required by the Edinburgh Agreement.

    Does the Edinburgh agreement actually say the bit you’ve quoted and give any more context (clearly I could go and look it up, but as you have a greater interest in this than I do I’m assuming you might know)?

    ernie_lynch
    Member

    Well if there isn’t a clear cut result perhaps they could agree to give independence to any counties that vote for it, but any counties that vote against it remain in the union ?

    It seems to have worked well in Ireland so I can’t see why the same arrangement shouldn’t be used in Scotland.

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