Feels like a shock headline to create impetuous and debate but the reality is the technology isn’t there, neither is the infrastructure.

Buses and lorries need a solution and with so much freight shifting to next day road delivery that’s a challenge. Might have changed, but the most polluted air quality in Glasgow was Hope Street, which is buses only at the point of the monitor.

I’m still buying bangernomic cars that are 10+ years old, so the ban on new cars is unlikely to affect me.

Might be an outside chance of getting an RS6 before then!

Wholeheartedly agree with that. I always thought my current car, which is only coming u p to 4 years old, would be my last non-electric car. The next one may be a hybrid or something with a range extender but definitely primarily electric.

There’s no good reason why new fossil fuel car sales could not be banned before 2025, with second-hand sales banned from 2030.

That would mean that anyone buying an internal combustion engined car from basically now would lose out massively financially when it comes to residuals. All of those lovely lease deals would vanish so no-one would afford their lovely SUV’s, manufacturers would stop producing cars as the profit would disappear and not all manufacturers have an electric lineup to replace it. The timescale seems reasonable when you consider the lead times on a new model for testing etc, the lifetime of the cars currently on sale new and the time to build the infrastructure to support an electric future.

The big problem is going to be the lobbying power of the oil and motor industries. It’ll be similar to how tobacco companies behaved until their hand was forced by the smoking ban and plain packets, they have then moved into the Vaping market when there was more profit potential there instead of in the traditional products. Come to think of it they had to go from combustion to electric 😆

Expand ?

Successive Governments have dismissed hybrid and electric options for all of thier vehicles and continue to do so. Councils, partly, are taking up the reins all be it piecemeal. City Transport systems barely come close to working in a clean city environment, busses, ambulances, underground and trains, taxis. Then add the commercial sector in construction and y’awam doomed. I’ve not touched on the Forces, but it seems using fossil fuels is fine for them innit. Shipping is a joke, all be it not a funny one. Commercial Asset movers (trucks carrying anything) have no hope. Aeroplanes and personal/commercial flight forget it.

I think there isn’t any viable alternative to utilising fossil fuels combined with hybrid electric recharging on the move vehicles.

Forcing a change like this on the great unwashed is laughable. Lead by the front, the Government should change ALL of its transport vehicles within the next 2 years, then Councils change all theirs within 4, inner cities transport vehicles within 5 then move to Commercial vehicles within 8.

But to do that we need the power network to underpin the requirement, that’s laughably woeful. We are currently still pissing about with “should we/shouldn’t we” choices over nuclear powerplants, negotiations with other foreign bodies who have already developed the mid phase technologies are so far behind in scope it’s just arguably pointless.

This statement is just so typically British. Poorly thought out half measures, executed with a limp wrist, moaned and debated until it’s too late, then play catchup and costs skyrocket to astronomical levels.

I’d just like to ask, if this electric (r)evolution is proposed, is digging up South America for core raw materials the answer? Fine in the short term, they’ve the asset to sell.. but what about the end of the short term phase? Mid term (50yrs or so) plans? Long term solutions to lack of raw materials..

This initiative should be at leat Europe wide, where we all pull together for a common cause. As is all I see is half cocked sticking plasters and coverups and denials and skyrocketing costs.. and a multitude of changing Government policies as the political landscape changes on rotation every full or half term.

So, I ask.. what is the point.

2040… imagine Britain’s roads in 2040. Will we care what cars are powered by? Isn’t the most important issue to reduce the number of vehicles on the road before the country (or parts of it) become gridlocked? I can’t imagine the M27 still running as a motorway in 23 years time, if the growth in vehicles is anything like it has been in the past 10 years. And it will be, because there are 1000s of houses being built around the road now. Petrol, diesel, hybrid, electric, will be an irrelevant discussion by 2040, I reckon.

Some tech highlights from 23 years ago

Technology

Worlds First Satellite Digital Television Service Launched
Netscape Navigator released quickly becoming market leader for browsing the web
Java programming language first released from Sun Microsystems
Scientists in Southern England estimate the oldest Europeans at 500,000 years old
The Channel Tunnel, which took 15,000 workers over seven years to complete, and is 31 miles long joining France and England opens on 6th May
The European Fighter Aircraft “Eurofighter” has makes its inaugural test flight after 10 years in development
http://www.thepeoplehistory.com/1994.html

kerley – Member
You can’t do it too fast. If everyone in UK swapped their car for an electric within the next year there would not be enough power to charge everyone’s car each night. Looks ominous even in 20 years time…

Vast quantities of energy are used in oil refinement which wouldn’t be needed and don’t power stations just tick-over at night as there’s far less energy required when we’re all in bed?

I like the idea but there needs to be a very fast way of charging them. For example…I’m drivingSouth to North UK, I need to recharge – how long will it take?? Petrol – 5 mins, refill tank and done. Recharging time is the issue that concerns me the most.

I like the idea but there needs to be a very fast way of charging them. For example…I’m drivingSouth to North UK, I need to recharge – how long will it take??

How often do you do that? Most journeys are short and frequent so not a problem.

Recharging time is the issue that concerns me the most.

Again, are you talking about today’s tech or where it could be?

2040 not 20:40 on Thursday

This initiative should be at leat Europe wide, where we all pull together for a common cause. As is all I see is half cocked sticking plasters and coverups and denials and skyrocketing costs

We should rejoin that EU thingy!!

For example…I’m drivingSouth to North UK, I need to recharge – how long will it take?? Petrol – 5 mins, refill tank and done. Recharging time is the issue that concerns me the most.

Maybe you might need to look at alternative travel arrangements?

this is the UK we are talking about. The political and social will is not there to totally do over the infrastructure and have near 100% renewable electricity by 2040

there is barely enough electricity in the system to power everyone’s televisions when someone’s showing you how to bake a cake

how the hell do you think you can support some millions of power intensive
chargers for cars

this news is all soundbites. Real big changes to the old infrastruture need to be undertaken and this will take a serious amount of time and resources and more importantly agreement from the voters

A recent report by a leading Dr in the field suggests a significant reduction in road use by 2040:

A future where roads are no longer needed

darrell – Member

this is the UK we are talking about. The political and social will is not there to totally do over the infrastructure and have near 100% renewable electricity by 2040

Hinkley might be nearly finished by then

If you do go and try breathing some in!!

Classic. Try breathing in the fumes produced during the processing of toxic elements that go into the production of batteries that are thousands of times more potent greenhouse gasses than CO2.

The introduction of catalytic converters to cars way back when cleared up the issue of smog overnight and cities enjoyed a period of non-toxic air until the rise of the diesels. The exhaust emissions from modern petrol engine cars is H2O so steam. The majority if not all of the toxins present in diesel exhausts are not present in petrol exhausts. In the most polluted cities in the world the exhaust emissions from a modern petrol engine car is cleaner and less toxic than the air sucked into the engine.

So I use the word clean in the context of air quality in built up cities. petrol engines are orders of magnitude cleaner than diesels and clean enough. The problem with petrol engines are CO2 emissions, which can be reduced via the next generation of variable compression ratio engines. Control of NOX emissions is key to that development – that is why we have development programs, but is a much easier thing to deal with petrol engines than diesel engines.

No sense jumping out of the frying pan into the fire like we did with diesel cars. EV’s have to demonstrate and prove their worth. At the moment they don’t – petrol engine cars are still better overall than current generation EV’s in terms of their lifecycle environmental impact. By 2040 it might be different and if it is then great, we managed to get a man on the moon within 10 years, so if the right amount of political support is brought to bear as well as financial support then there is no reason we can’t crack the EV problem by 2040. But it wont be deploying today’s technologies.

What goes wrong with a lot of these discussions is forgetting where we were 23 years ago (1994) most people didn’t have mobiles, laptops lasted a fraction of the time, duracell was king of the portable electronics etc.

But where we are now is planned obsolescence, my fancy mobile phone and watch can barely hold a days battery charge, the products are designed to last a few years at most. My laptop battery is designed with a 1000 charge life and is not easily replaceable. I don’t think the EV manufacturers could be trusted to not deliberately do this to mean more money every few years coming in!

Whilst I agree with the noble nature of going fossil fuel free, we are just moving to a different mined fuel, which would then require the building of many power plants, when its taken several years to get not very far at Hinkley, bottom line we are still destroying the planet!

40,000 deaths a year whilst high sounding from a peak at the NHS own info, Cancer and Cardiovascular lead to many more deaths and could argueably do with a bigger cash injection into their prevention, detection, treatments.

Also, without petrol or diesel drawing lots of money in via tax,how will this shortfall be dealt with?

I can just imagine my house in 2040….honey did you remember to charge the car? I thought you were doing it? No darling, I specifically asked you to make sure you charged the car! Don’t take that tone with me! If you didn’t spend all your money on bikes we could have our own cars!!

The solution if often about behavioural change facilitated by technology – something like of 80% of journeys are less than 5 miles, some significantly less – people need to be discouraged to drive a half-mile to the shops, as much for their health, and ours.

How much traffic could be reduced if everyone didn’t need to drive to work or school – VR video-conferencing from home would provide a vitual workspace / classroom and the ability to interact with others.

The need for a car as personal transport is both selfish and motivated by car, fossil fuel companies and banks keen to finance them – new modes of ownership where you simply subscribe to an autonomous taxi service that takes you where you need to go when you need it – not an expensive depreciating asset on your driveway simply to look good with the neighbours. My car gets used 10 hours a week – it’s a wasted resources 94% of the time – how easy would it be to get about with 1/20th of the traffic and that Tesla gets more affordable!

Automated / autonomous road trains of trucks would move goods overnight and replenish warehouses overnight – silently and with minimal human intervention. Bring it on.

The main problem is we are in an era of soap-box politics with limited time horizons and imagination – rather than being bold, they’ve simply kicked the can down the road.

Where does the electricity come from to charge these batteries

Hinkley? 😉

Why wait and certainly not 20 years (which really means 40+ years before they dissapear from our streets)

Diesels should be banned now from cities or at least taxed out of existence generally.

Hybrids ahould have a massive tax advantage, say 10% extra tax on all non-hybrids ? Note Hybrids must actually work, there is llenty of evidence that some models the electric motors are close to useless

I can just imagine my house in 2040….honey did you remember to charge the car? I thought you were doing it? No darling, I specifically asked you to make sure you charged the car! Don’t take that tone with me! If you didn’t spend all your money on bikes we could have our own cars!!

Brilliant

At the moment they don’t – petrol engine cars are still better overall than current generation EV’s in terms of their lifecycle environmental impact.

False. You need a link for that or it’s a… .

CO2
NOX
Fine particles
Noise

pollution associated with the production and recycling of all the material and fuels used inclduding the fossil fuels used in the lifetime of the vehicle and the current European energy mix for the elcetricity used.

Where does the electricity come from to charge these batteries

In the context of local air quality, it doesn’t matter that much – the point is to get the emissions away from people.

Still going in a hole in the ground when they’re finished with

That won’t happen in 2040. Too valuable.

Try breathing in the fumes produced during the processing of toxic elements that go into the production of batteries that are thousands of times more potent greenhouse gasses than CO2.

That’s done in a few big factories though. Far easier to control it in one spot than deal with it being trailed around every street in every town in the world nearly.

We could get by with electric cars now, if we had enough of them. Peopel are simply moaning about loss of convenience. We could work around that though if there was a will to change and a will to spend the money to change.

Noise

I’d love an all electric future, but the noise argument is bobbins. I can hear the A48 from my house now, but I cannot hear any internal combustion engines. It’s tyre noise.

At the moment they don’t – petrol engine cars are still better overall than current generation EV’s in terms of their lifecycle environmental impact.

Do you have a credible study to support that? The only one I’ve ever seen making that claim was laughably biased.

.I’m drivingSouth to North UK, I need to recharge – how long will it take?? Petrol – 5 mins, refill tank and done. Recharging time is the issue that concerns me the most.

I’m driving to Scotland next week. I’ll be towing a caravan, so I’ll be slower, but I’ll get there and it won’t have that much impact.

I bet someone in a Tesla doign the same trip (without a caravan but that’s another issue!) would be there in the same amount of time. It’s not that big of a deal.

this news is all soundbites. Real big changes to the old infrastruture need to be undertaken and this will take a serious amount of time and resources and more importantly agreement from the voters

Which is why it’s good we are having the soundbites now is it not? Somehow the great unwashed need to get their heads around the changes that will need to be made in the next twenty or so years. Might as well put out some aspirational goals (dressed up as rules) to get us all chuntering about them.

Car is just the start – how many million homes in the UK have their heating, cooking and hot water powered by gas? That’s not going to go on forever. If we resort to all electric heating/cooking/hot water that’ll add a chunk more to our required generation capacity.

Assuming this does go ahead, in practice everything would change ahead of that date. With other countries following a similar line, which manufacturer is going to continue developing and building cars up to the deadline if the market for them is going to disappear?

And while there may be alternatives to fossil fuel for personal transport, it will be interesting to see what options develop for shipping (return to sails?) and aircraft (would require great advances in batteries power to weight and capacity)

The 2040 headline is successfully derailing the pollution issue.

We could reduce emissions next week by properly enforcing the highway code and meaningfully prosecuting and punishing offenders. This would make cycling on the road safer and encourage a greater percentage of people to make shorter journeys by bike.

No infrastructure investment, no technological hurdles win win for everyone except the car industry. Presently its smoke and mirrors that we need to wait 20 years for electic cars. (though they are needed)

Thats like saying the answer to obesity is diet coke when the real answer is less fizzy pop fat boy!

Doubters should drive one. When you get back in a petrol car it feels antiquated, noisy and unnecessarily complicated. That roundabout where it’s difficult to accelerate into gaps wasn’t a problem with the electric car – wait for gap, floor pedal, fill gap. In a piston engined manual you’re back to revving and waiting to dump the clutch, and in an auto you’re holding it revving against the brakes. What faff, just to pull away quickly and cleanly.

There is enough generation capacity overall. The problem will come with local distribution systems. If everyone comes home and plugs in their fast chargers at the same time in the evening, local distribution couldn’t cope. There are ways round this such as smart charging etc.

http://www.raeng.org.uk/publications/reports/electric-vehicles

This smacks of a government setting a target so far down the line that it becomes somebody else’s problem and they can do nothing, safe in the knowledge that they will have retired to the speaking circuit and blame others for failing to implement their visionary policies.

Where does the electricity come from to charge these batteries

Here in Norway its 98% renewable (hydroelectric) and we have the infrastructure to handle a load of people plugging in their cars in the evening to charge them

The UK doesnt

But in a couple of decades time, with some degree of intelligence on the grid, it becomes much easier. You control the charging so that they draw from the grid overnight when usage is lower and then you can actually balance the base load a lot better.

The change will be as much (if not more) about infrastructure to support electric vehicles than the vehicles themselves.

I’ll be towing a caravan, so I’ll be slower, but I’ll get there and it won’t have that much impact.

And how is towing going to work in the electric era?

My car hasnt moved for week, when its an electric car it still wont move very often so can be used a battery for the grid to store leccy.

ignoring distribution infrastructure

the UK still needs to be on almost 100% renewables by 2040 or nuclear

but seems the UK cant manage to organise a single new build

We could reduce emissions next week by properly enforcing the highway code and meaningfully prosecuting and punishing offenders. This would make cycling on the road safer and encourage a greater percentage of people to make shorter journeys by bike.

No infrastructure investment, no technological hurdles win win for everyone except the car industry. Presently its smoke and mirrors that we need to wait 20 years for electic cars.
Or do both.

My Hilux should see me ok until 2040, it will be 43yrs old…

ban private cars in cities already. It’s a grim experience anyway.

I think you can forget fuel greedy activities like towing a caravan in the new age. You can’t fit a tow bar to a Zoé, or a roof rack for that matter. Electric is viable when you drive in a manner that can be achieved with a petrol car that uses 6l/100 (45-50 mpg). Less than that and you are going to need huge battery capacity or accept very low range. Or use hydrogen or tow-part batterie fuel rather than batteries.

And how is towing going to work in the electric era?

That’s what I meant when I said ‘that’s a different issue’ 🙂

You could probably fit a load of batteries under the chassis of a campervan though.. but the cost would be unbelievable. Camper vans are expensive enough as it is.

Or do both.

Of course and loads of other stuff, the point being theres plenty that can be done today.

Not that i’m a massive fan of petrol/diesel cars, but after the Sky News report on cobalt mining, I cant say i’m a massive fan of batteries either.

I’m also far from convinced that electric cars are the way forward due to infrastructure limitations, especially in rural areas. We already suffer from chronic under-investment in so many areas, so where is the money going to come from to A) build new power stations to charge millions of cars, and B) build the charging points (or induction loops under existing roads).

In the short term, i’d be in favour of banning SUV’s as they are utterly pointless in the UK, and just burn extra fuel so you can have a high up driving position and get one up on the neighbours.

The point is that we can improve the way these minerals are mined, we can work on power generation and infrastructure, but there has to be a proper political effort. We cannot simply let the market deal with it.

Well I don’t need to worry about this one anyway. Buy a new petrol car in 2039 and run it for a decade until I’m 90.

We could get by with electric cars now, if we had enough of them. Peopel are simply moaning about loss of convenience. We could work around that though if there was a will to change and a will to spend the money to change

No we couldn’t. The electricity grid couldn’t cope.

National Grid have highlighted some of the problems.

another “pinch point”’ would be the substation and the peripheral routes and branches within a local distribution network. Pilot projects, such as My Electric Avenue, were reporting potential issues at the distribution level.In one more extreme example they were identifying voltage issues when five 3.5 kW chargers were connected to a network cluster (with 134 dwellings) and were charging at the same time. The project concluded that across Britain 32% of low voltage circuits (312,000) will require reinforcing when 40% – 70% of customers have EV’s based on 3.5 kW chargers.

The alternate of a national system of fast chargers would incur huge costs.

http://fes.nationalgrid.com/media/1221/forecourt-thoughts-v10.pdf

A nationwide ban seems too extreme when the polution issue is local to city centres. As far as CO2 goes EVs and efficient petrol cars are in the same ballpark at 100g Co2 per KM for the UK with current electricity generation.

You’ve shown that electric cars are more energy-efficient than
fossil cars. But are they better if our objective is to reduce CO2
emissions, and the electricity is still generated by fossil power-
stations?

This is quite an easy calculation to do. Assume the electric vehicle’s
energy cost is 20 kWh(e) per 100 km. (I think 15 kWh(e) per 100 km is perfectly possible, but let’s play sceptical in this calculation.) If grid electricity has a carbon footprint of 500 g per kWh(e) then the effective emissions of this vehicle are 100 g CO2 per km, which is as good as the best fossil cars

https://www.withouthotair.com/c20/page_131.shtml

For CO2 reduction combined with transferring transport energy from fossil fuel to electricity we need a large number of nuclear power stations to be built. Unlikely in the next 23 years I would have thought.