So….we want to limit immigration, but we want to avoid a disaster befalling the NHS?

We don’t want our exports to be mired in border controls, we want to keep our banking sector happy, we want the best possible trade deal with our European mainland trading partners. We want to have a say in any future EU product safety standards, we also want to avoid a £50bn divorce bill.

Does anyone see a potential solution on the horizon…anyone…anyone…?

PJM1974 – Member
So….we want to limit immigration, but we want to avoid a disaster befalling the NHS?

We don’t want our exports to be mired in border controls, we want to keep our banking sector happy, we want the best possible trade deal with our European mainland trading partners. We want to have a say in any future EU product safety standards, we also want to avoid a £50bn divorce bill.

Does anyone see a potential solution on the horizon…anyone…anyone…?

Must admit Hammonds comments seem like a complete wishlist, unless we are to pay the full divorce bill and presumably some Norway style payments in for the transition period at least

Does anyone see a potential solution on the horizon…anyone…anyone…?

Ohhhhh, let me think. Does it begin with “re” and end in “main”?

Does anyone see a potential solution on the horizon…anyone…anyone…?

Seems obvious to me, but if I voice it I expect to be shouted down as a hater of democracy.

Yep.

we’ve gotten ourselves into a colossal mess here, one year on from the referendum that’s cost us the life of an MP, has sent the pound plummeting and destroyed the careers of two Prime Ministers, all for the sake of a referendum that we didn’t need, that was wanted only by the political fringe, which trotted out a large amount of misinformation.

And yet our mortally wounded PM continues to march onward as if nothing has changed.

we’ve gotten ourselves into a colossal mess here, one year on from the referendum that’s cost us the life of an MP, has sent the pound plummeting and destroyed the careers of two Prime Ministers, all for the sake of a referendum that we didn’t need, that was wanted only by the political fringe, which trotted out a large amount of misinformation.

It will be worth it though for all those great reasons that the brexiters are keeping a secret.

I agree with Jamby in one respect: labour are also in a mess over this. No coherent and realistic plan. But just as with the Kobayashi Maru, they are winning by not actually playing the game 🙂 The tories are digging a big enough hole that labour doesn’t really have to attack much, they can just cower in the background and watch. It’s a bit spineless but given the situation, they can’t really be blamed for much.

But just as with the Kobayashi Maru, they are winning by not actually playing the game

I approve of this for two reasons:

Firstly, Kobayashi Maru beautifully sums up the situation. It’s a term that should be used more often and deserves a place in the lexicon.

Secondly, Labour are being deliberately ambiguous – they know that they bagged a large number of Remain voters, plus UKIP deserters and they’re letting the Conservatives dig themselves into the merde. Hopefully, the endgame is to offer an alternative that benefits our economy and prosperity but once the realisation that we’re all royally stiffed becomes unavoidable. I trust Kier Starmer more than I do David Davis.

No coherent and realistic plan.

Nobody has, its as simple as that.

Firstly, Kobayashi Maru beautifully sums up the situation. It’s a term that should be used more often and deserves a place in the lexicon.

brilliant

we need a kirk to change the rules of the game

Sounds like a win to me. I mean we can just trade with the rest of the world on WTO tariffs, so there won’t be any problem importing all the luxury yachts we need.

But hang on, only yesterday you were saying:

Kirk earlier…

[video]http://youtu.be/FCARADb9asE[/video]

PJM1974 – Member
Firstly, Kobayashi Maru beautifully sums up the situation. It’s a term that should be used more often and deserves a place in the lexicon.

Got to agree with this! 🙂

@igm we have to pay what’s legally due. We had to give two years notice so we legally have to pay our contributions till then.

I didn’t mention it but Jaguar Land Rover announed 5000 new jobs the other day

@igm we have to pay what’s legally due. We had to give two years notice so we legally have to pay our contributions till then.

2 different things.
We need to pay contributionsome until we leave.
Legally there may be other costs. I assume you are unaware as they forgot to mention that in any of the leave propaganda you were handing out.
It would be best to wait for definitive legal advice there.

@aracer EU is economically stagnant new trade deals with the rest of the world is where its at. The trend is clear here and IMO UK/EU trafe is overstated by the Rotterdam effect anyway

Big assumption in there. Also nowhere does it say being able to trade with the European easily is bad. Why does it have to be either or?
Also how much was the rotterdam effect actually quantified as and how would leaving impact that.

@mike I read / waded through the House of Lords paper, yes there could be other legal obligations but I doubt it. EU has been claiming various daft amounts like UK has to pay its rent on UK buildings if it chooses to leave 🙂

Rotterdam effect is notoriously difficult to quantify. The fund I worked at was held in Ireland but investors where all non-EU. As such that would show as UK/EU trade flows (eg mgmt fees) when in fact it was not

yes there could be other legal obligations but I doubt it.

based on gut feeling or just what you want to hear?

Jamba, please tell me, as I’ve asked before & you’ve never given a credible answer, where I can’t currently trade that Brexit will let me.

USA, India, Middle East, Far East, Africa – all perfectly workable right now and the EU isn’t holding us back. So you want to hamper our ability to trade with our single biggest market (50% of sales and highest margin) to gain precisely what? And from where?

There isn’t anywhere we want to go we can’t already go.

The trend is clear here and IMO UK/EU trafe is overstated by the Rotterdam effect anyway

Oh Jambas, don’t start that cr@p again – you were called out on it resolutely last time round!

nicely cropped y axis 😉

hasnt global growth changed from 2015 though?

you need some actual up to date data!

America N & S are now slowing

Asia has remained steady but EU has now picked up and increased, considerable in some areas, (obvs UK now slowing thanks to brexit vote)

https://www.ft.com/content/ba1301c0-4c54-11e7-919a-1e14ce4af89b

Its not about binary choices @oldbloke but tariffs and restrictions we can remove

Is the UK actually the B-ark

I don’t think we would be useful enough to qualify.

Its not about binary choices @oldbloke but tariffs and restrictions we can remove

FFS – where and what? Make it more expensive to the EU and I have to find somewhere else to sell. So where am I going to get that margin back that I can’t already go to?

but tariffs and restrictions we can remove

But you keep telling us they don’t matter.

Everyone loves a graph..

[/url]Screen Shot 2017-06-20 at 13.16.44 by 100%of thetime60%ofthetime, on Flickr[/img]

http://visual.ons.gov.uk/uk-perspectives-2016-trade-with-the-eu-and-beyond/

Hammond on the BBC a couple of hours ago:

Mr Hammond said the UK still planned to leave the single market and customs union despite calls for a rethink from business

So its still full speed ahead.

he talks about maybe having tariff free trade with the EU, but that’s not the same thing.

he was also taking about a magical frictionless customs border

Its the only chart I have to hand. Yes global growth slowing although US is responding positively to The Donald. We (UK and Europe)are very far from dealing with excessive personal and/or government debt. A lot more pain to come imho

Mike my comment was based on the HoL report. EU position based on fact we voted for budet/projects in EU Parliament so we are liable. Not so.

The increase in gross domestic product will drop to 2.1 percent in 2018 and 1.9 percent in 2019. That’s according to the most recent forecast released at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on June 14, 2017. This forecast begins to take into account the impact of Trump’s policies.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20160921.pdf

https://www.thebalance.com/g00/us-economic-outlook-3305669?i10c.referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.co.uk%2F

I didn’t mention it but Jaguar Land Rover announed 5000 new jobs the other day

Good news indeed. Are these the 10,000 new jobs JLR said (in Nov 2016) that they would create with suitable government investment?

https://www.ft.com/content/fa59957c-b2ae-11e6-a37c-f4a01f1b0fa1

yes jaguar did say in their release that they were expecting government investment in new technologies

The firm said it would hire 1,000 electronic and software engineers and 4,000 workers across other sectors, including manufacturing.
Most of the jobs will be based in the UK, with recruitment taking place over the coming year. The firm has five sites in the West Midlands, and one on Merseyside.
The carmaker, which is owned by India’s Tata Motors, employs more than 40,000 people globally,
The company will build the I-PACE, in Austria. But it has indicated it would like to make such models in the UK if conditions such as support from government are met.

Nice article by Ian Dunt on politics.co.uk on how the first round went so well for the buffoons at the Ministry of Brexit.

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2017/06/20/the-first-british-defeat-over-brexit-happened-in-moments

(probably best any of our pet Brexit fantasists don’t read it…it’ll just make them even more angry.)

Mark Carney doesn’t seem particularly conviced, eh!

Markets have already anticipated some of the adjustment. Depending on whether and when any transition arrangement can be agreed, firms on either side of the channel may soon need to activate contingency plans. Before long, we will all begin to find out the extent to which Brexit is a gentle stroll along a smooth path to a land of cake and consumption.

Before long, we will all begin to find out the extent to which Brexit is a gentle stroll along a smooth path to a land of cake and consumption.

😀 what kind of cake?

yup a few Leavers on twitter trying to say ‘its project fear’
but its half-hearted at best

I think reality is slooowly starting to dawn

So if saying “it’s going to be a disaster” is project fear, how is “it’s going to be fine” not project ignorance?

Say for example the popular mood changes towards supporting Bremain and our Prime Minister and brexiteers are out of step with popular opinion, what happens then?