if we get to a no-deal Brexit we will probably choose to stay and the EU will find a way of accommodating that.
That is what I have thought all along. It was very likely a deal would never get done and at the final point the MPs have to sod the will of the people and actually protect the country (including those people who want to leave the EU)
Hague is warning that if we get to a no-deal Brexit we will probably choose to stay and the EU will find a way of accommodating that.
this pleases me.
That's always been one of the possible outcomes. However collapse of govt and general election is more plausible (which also kills brexit due to the time constraint). At this point my biggest worry is the govt cobbling together something vague enough that it is allowed to lurch over the line in one piece, but it's a long shot.
WRT THM's difficulty in understanding the difference between a forecast and a lie, here's Nick Clegg's unnervingly accurate prediction published the day before the referendum
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/will-wake-vote-leave/
Betting folk should put their money on fudge, extended transition, and a mighty size 11 in the can
the EU doesn’t do negotiations but it masters in kicking cans down the road
so one wheel
1 nicks recession, where is it? Activity actually surprising in upside
2 JPM actually dealing with 00s of relocations, the 000s being a more adverse scenario. Don’t believe headlines
“Our industry is in a constant state of flux and I can say personally we have been through far more significant tumult than this, so this is an event we can very well manage,” he said.
carry on...
Recession was held off by stronger than predicted performance of Eurozone countries, paired with pound dropping and the lag where that benefits exports positively before it hits prices at home, due to stock holding.
A fudge, and can kicking, is also what I expect. That puts us in an even worse position than we are in now, so don't welcome it. Of course, it's better than leaving without a transition, so May will be praised. It's a disaster though… …still no mandate in parliament, or the country, for any relationship to transition to… hence the can kicking by "our" side.
If that other comment is about JLR… of course they'll cope just fine… but their "threats" to try and keep most of their supply chain inside a single customs region seems fairly straightforward.
If it's about JPM… they'll never leave London… they'll mostly change where they are recruiting for new roles, rather than "move" anything. It makes much more sense. JPM are part of the rise of New York above London. Brexit won't harm them at all.
the EU doesn’t do negotiations
Who has more international agreements facilitating trade than the EU? Who is better at negotiating them than the EU?
My money is on an unspecified technological solution.
Davies said that we can use "existing" technology to make the border work as well as it does with Norway, or Switzerland. He still doesn't get the issues in Ireland, or understand the Single Market, does he?
The document does suggest vague non existing technology, yes… repurposing EU systems no less (they seem to have accepted that "our side" can't get systems ready by March, but have faith in the EU doing so). Oh, and Dublin and Belfast can sort out the detail. Who makes up the Belfast government currently? What power do they have over issues of taxation and standards? Interesting…
Tick. Tock.
They should have just phoned that one in. Distinct lack of effort.
Still, the BBC headline reads.
<h1 class="story-body__h1">Brexit: Tory MPs say technology key to avoiding hard Irish border</h1>
So yeah. Personally I would have gone with "absolute jokers" instead of Tory MPs but there you go.
Assuming junker was sober at the time...
In a largely positive speech, he added: “We agree with the statement made in Chequers that the starting point for such a partnership should be a free trade area between the UK and the EU.”
....FTA, getting warmer
even the guardian can’t get a poll that confirms a major shift in opinion
'Assuming Junker was sober at the time'
Classy THM.
Nothing like a little dig at the foreigners to make you feel better is there?
You may not like anything or anyone to do with the EU any more but even a little respect and treating others as you would wish to be treated might help 'our side' to get a better deal.
If even 'ex remainers' think in that way then maybe 'we' deserve what 'we' get.
Eu negotiators have track record in saying one thing one day and another thing the next (see Varoufakis) and junker has well known drink issue.
So wind it in. Nothing to do with foreigners
Whatever you say THM, I am sure you know best.
Actually sorry Dave, excuse the wind it in bit. Long shit day. Rest still stands 😉
Does Ian Bone have a login name?
Eu negotiators have track record in saying one thing one day and another thing the next
Exhibit A.
Meanwhile Citi and Barclays announce significantly lower job relocations
trickl....
However, while the banks gave low numbers for initial job losses, JPMorgan's Mark Garvin said job moves could become "substantially larger" over time.
is it time for you to mention BNP Paribas again?
Gosh
Meanwhile Citi and Barclays announce significantly lower job relocations
Job relocations in banking? What's brought that on, then?
Meanwhile Citi and Barclays announce significantly lower job relocations
trickl….
Still perplexed why any need to go if their employers had planned properly they would be staying to rake in loads more cash!!
It is still a classic PR trick though announce more then reduce it to pretend it's all better.
Do we have a total number of jobs leaving the UK so far across all industries?
The big challenge for May is to now convince 50 of her finest to admit they were wrong and support the deal that will be worse than Chequers.... Going to be tough when that split happens
If the ERG capitulate can we call them traitors and enemies of the people?
No need to be perplexed. It's all been explained. Even the wildly exaggerated stuff from north of the border was on the right basic lines before getting derailed
But they are still leaving, along with thousands of other jobs and the associated contribution to the economy that they provide.
Nothing is rushing in to fill that gap, unless your counting the BNP guys the same way people have been counting up the 8bn.
But at least no witty answer to the split tories..... Some people are going to look fairly stupid at the end of this if they cave in.
Still plenty of time to see what shit deal we are getting.
I know a full 1% of staff. Time to panic. How will we come without them?
You seem to be obsessed with overreaction, as part of a greater trend it is worrying and not good news. After all we don't have our relationship with the eu defined yep. How many are in the job export column if it goes badly?
So far 1% from banking
Research jobs
EU regulatory offices
We adding all these up?
On the contrary - obsessed with realism. Positive signs that the scare stories might be over, the real issues of subsidiaries, passporting etc understood so the real work can continue as normal.
Short the latte makers though - very bad for them
On the contrary – obsessed with realism.
You understand we haven't left yet, right?
-
Yes
- Haven’t rallied round, merely accepted that the majority of voters wanted a different outcome to me.
- Don’t defemd. You are confusing this with rejecting/falsifying lies promoted by those who seek solely to reject/obstruct the result.
- Yes. Oddly enough find myself in agreement with the head of the RMT on that one.
Not baffling. Argue your case, accept the result, move on.
-
It’s not a game which is why (5) and why we are prepared for the next phase. That’s what business does.
I suppose what baffles me is what seems from the outside as some sort of Damascene conversion. I find it difficult to believe that you believe that 'we' could come to an agreement, even if it is as bespoke as ****, that will be actually better than the agreement we have now.
You don't genuinely believe that do you?
I share your concerns as regards the democratic process itself - cards on table, i voted Remain - and indeed at one point i also was very much of the opinion that this now simply had to be carried through, for good or ill. But we must remember that the question was carried by such a slim margin that it is, in the words of Farage himself, 'unfinished business'. What's sauce for the goose and all that, what?
It's also slightly disingenuous to suggest that people should simply 'accept the result and move on'. You must surely equally accept that there are considerably larger obstacles to 'moving on' if you manufacture cars, or car parts - have extensive salmon fisheries - have a small business as a, i don't know, chocolatier for example - than there are for other 'industries'? Like financial ones, as an also random example?
Aren't many businesses still 'arguing the case' that this will be a disastrous outcome for them? Should they 'accept the result' that this will be a disastrous outcome for them and 'move on' toward the disaster they foresee?
Is that also 'what business does'?
If there had been an overwhelming majority vote to Leave, i could understand, but that is clearly not the case. Perhaps the only thing i can see both Farage and myself ever being in agreement with is that it is most certainly unfinished business.
Apparently there is a plan -
- not, it would appear, a particularly cunning one.
But a plan, at least.
Meanwhile Citi and Barclays announce significantly lower job relocations
at the same time many investors are expecting high levels of “consolidation” of smaller banks next year as they fear they will not have the money or resources to function or compete after Brexit....
nothing like taking back control by reducing the availability it choice
Exactly. The bigger banks will just expand and reduce in countries to suit (may within existing locations where they already have a presence) The smaller banks will suffer more.
The worst part is that jobs in banking are jobs we should be keeping, as are the jobs in the motor industry. Not everyone wants to give up their well paid job to become a seasonal fruit picker...
Shit, chequers is a bigger betrayal than even the frothing Brexiters knew
May has a secret plan to take us into the Eurozone !
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1040002377535942657?s=19
Not everyone wants to give up their well paid job to become a seasonal fruit picker…
Well, if it's well paid, they can probably move with the job. It's the lesser humans that'll be stuck behind borders. Anyway, retraining should probably prioritise nurses… oh, how about vets…?
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1040012440728203265
As for WTO schedules… why would they not be stated in Euros? It's that or US Dollars (joke).
BBC R2 reporting that immigration will likely remain about the same post-Brexit. Is there any single thing that leavers voted for that they'll actually get?
Blue passports?
Short the latte makers though – very bad for them
Literally, as they are largely EU immigrants. But not bankers so not important.
Sadly, quoting myself…
the lag where that benefits exports positively before it hits prices at home, due to stock holding
John Lewis have moved through their old stock, and now need to either pass on the costs due to low pound, or give up on making a profit… the lower pound was positive to the UK for a limited time… now we start paying… but don't blame Brexit… or is that kind of honesty no longer a PR disaster…? Let's see how their announcement is greeted today…
You don’t genuinely believe that do you?
To be fair ... actually being better off has always been a "potential" in terms of an overall Brexit
Or at least one proponent has one idea of how we would be better off that is completely at odds with another proponent... Money to the NHS one day vs "he shouldn't have said that" the next day... immigrants that are taking all the best jobs one day and claiming unemployment for their 6 kids in Romania the next day...
whilst potentially being worse off isn't considered..either financially or in many other ways.
A technological solution to the NI/Eire border.... heck if only we had that technology in the 1970's...
To pick the cycling analogy of "pick any two" Brexit is put forwards like "pick any 1001".... ignore any incompatibilities or just physics/economics as we will find a solution. Everyone will be paid more and we will have MORE jobs and we will export more because we will somehow be able to do this cheaper and because every national will literally be falling over themselves to give favourable trade deals to the UK over every other country.
Just saw the Sky reporter outside number 10, talking about Raab, finding it significant that he’s apparently “got a black belt in karate”...
Seriously? WTF has that to actually do with anything? Has he got a black belt in negotiating?
Clown time obviously not over yet.
They used to big up Davis SAS credentials, when talking about his negotiating skills
we all saw how that turned out
Meanwhile Im enjoying Raab attacking John Lewis, its used to be that the Tories were the party of business!
I think they should take a swipe at the brexiteers in their xmas add this year, best way to respond!
They used to big up Davis SAS credentials, when talking about his negotiating skills
Imagine if the SAS were actually like Davis:
"Let's go and rescue some hostages!!"
"Naah - can't be bothered" <gormless grin>
198 days to go.
Conservative politicians can’t agree amongst themselves of what ‘the deal’ should consist. May and Raab and supporters pushing for the ‘Chequers deal’ which Barnier has repeated many times is not acceptable. Government drawing up plans for emergency supplies and civil unrest if ( as looks increasingly likely) the UK crashes out. Businesses countrywide making desperate appeals to DO SOMETHING.
Tomorrow there will be... 197 days to go.
Imagine if the SAS were actually like Davis:
Sorry the hostage rescue mission failed but we had to call it off after all the soldiers threatened to resign if they werent allowed to have the window seat in the helicopter.
There will be a deal.
Will it better or not with what you have now ?
Vaz
No Damascene conversion. As a remainer I believe/believed that what we had was better than what we will get. Obviously. But that doesn’t matter. Its history. My view proved to be a minority one. We lost
So two mantras: (1) deal with what is in front of you not what you wish was in front of you; (2) prepare for worst, hope for the best
So we are giving up membership of the EU. That is what is in front of us. The worst case outcome IMO is a hard Brexit, the best case is bespoke FTA. So we are prepared for a hard Brexit already (structurally at least) and will be happier if we get a FTA instead. That will be a Brucie bonus.
In the end we won’t know if it’s better or worse since there is not control sample. I happen to believe that the outcome will be manageable and less negative that the doomsday scenarios. But frankly that doesn’t matter. It will be what it will be. We have to deal with whatever is thrown at us.
Or 3. Stand up and fight for what you believe in.
There are plenty of organisations doing just that.
Join them,get involved take the fight to those that put the needs of foreign billionaires before those of the people.
Don’t run to the lifeboat ,fix the hole in the ship.
We* are not prepared for a hard or no-deal Brexit.
*I take 'we' to mean everyone and everything within the UK.
So we are giving up membership of the EU. That is what is in front of us. The worst case outcome IMO is a hard Brexit, the best case is bespoke FTA. So we are prepared for a hard Brexit already (structurally at least) and will be happier if we get a FTA instead. That will be a Brucie bonus.
How does one prepare for the undefined Irish border?
Should I be preparing by taking a night course in Vet of Import Inspections - 3 months should do it?
What about getting a burger van on the road to Dover?
Most of these jobs should have been sorted out by the government at this stage, have plans for all of these things and a roll out contingency that is fully costed with steps being taken as we speak to make sure it's done.
Join them,get involved take the fight to those that put the needs of foreign billionaires before those of the people.
He's working for banks, who are well placed and well able to move operations to wherever's best for them. He's reactive, not proactive. Banks are asking him/his company "what happens if..." and for some guidance about impacts of likely scenarios. Beyond a personal holidays/travel level, it doesn't really matter to him. Presumably the more upheaval, the more need for consultancy, so he'll be alright.
If you're a company who actually produces, retails, carries stuff about, generally has a bit more skin in the game, damn right you should shout about how things will affect you, what it means for your business and the actions you'll have to take as a result. And if you think it's a bad step/putting livelihoods at risk/effing bonkers, you should be shouting about that too.
the best case is bespoke FTA
'Bespoke FTA" still means everything and nothing. It encapsulates everything from just reduced tariffs for key industries, all the way up to us being part of the Single Market, and in addition having no internal tariffs or quotas and acting as one block when it comes to deals with the rest of the world. Anything beyond no deal, all the way up to cooperating and sharing more closely than either Norway or Switzerland do with the EU, would require a "Bespoke FTA", or more likely, a huge number of bespoke agreements.
And anyway, the best case is that we remain in EU, with our special deal, being the largest country in a new "outer ring" of less integrated countries, but inside the trading block. Once we have two options to compare, rather than "1001 ways to Leave" vs Remain, that opinion will not be a minority one (even if it is currently, which I am not entirely convinced is the case anyway).
So we are prepared for a hard Brexit already
Who are "we"?
What do you mean by "hard"?
As a remainer I believe/believed that what we had was better than what we will get. Obviously. But that doesn’t matter. Its history. My view proved to be a minority one. We lost
Could you imagine a world in which everyone was as cringingly subservient? You could explain the above to me from now until the end of time, and I'd still say "don't get it". I mean, I hesitate to Godwin this thread up by saying we'd all be speaking German, but you get my drift.
We* are not prepared for a hard or no-deal Brexit.
*I take ‘we’ to mean everyone and everything within the UK.
I took it to mean "the financial sector", which is the extent of THM's interest.
Is that so Doc?
reading above brings back images of black berets and Tooting Broadway underground. Power to the people comrades 😀
kelvin, is worth differentiating between theoretical bests and realistic bests. The former are of less value
What a fantastic contribution. I now imagine all those CEOs of manufacturing and retail companies chortling along to that. Not to mention councils and health trusts…
////------------------------------------////
Oh, an edit, to add an actual point… I like it… nothing "theoretical" as regards remaining a member of the EU… it's just that it has been ruled out by our (current) leading politicians… just as lots of other, less desirable, options have been. Just about everything is being ruled out by someone with the power to block what we do next… so all options are "theoretical" at the moment.
De nada
2 words for THM - Poll Tax
An unpopular policy introduced by (a democratically elected) government, eventually overturned after resistance by the populace.
Power to the people indeed.
Resistance is not futile.
reading above brings back images of black berets and Tooting Broadway underground. Power to the people comrades
You've nothing, have you. Round here we have a saying - "when words are no better than silence, one should choose silence".
As a remainer I believe/believed that what we had was better than what we will get. Obviously. But that doesn’t matter. Its history. My view proved to be a minority one. We lost
Your view was probably the minority. However all the other smaller opinions ranging from 'we can do better trade outside the EU' to 'the EU are going to force us into the Eurozone' to 'immigration harms the economy' and everything in between together outvoted us in the referendum.
* probably not the minority ^^
One of those amusing things about democracy is that everyone, simultaneously, even in a binary choice referendum, can be in a minority.
Pure dead gallus is it no?
Stolen from twitter but very funny .
- Hello, Border.
- Morning, Jean.
- Those English tourists are driving through Ken’s field.
- They have the map upside down.
- Oh right.
- Having decided on their route they are sticking to it. “There is no going back”, he said
- They’re headed to the river.
- That they are.
Ol' Carney has the European Research Gammons all frothing and redder than ever.
Mr Carney was "not predicting Armageddon, he was not predicting house prices would fall by a third, they are just making sure that if, for some extraordinary reason anything was to go horribly wrong, the bank is prepared."
A high placed banker, preparing for the worst but hoping for the best... sound familiar? Anyone checking whether THM's posts have a Canadian twang????
It's just Project Reality isn't it? Anyway most of the zealots don't give a shit, they are either rich enough to afford it (possibly benefit from the carnage) or poor enough that they feel they have nothing to lose - though they might get a wake-up call about that.
News just in...
British steel to dump jobs citing weak £
S****horpe voted 70% for Brexit, these people really have been conned
I know someone with a decent job with British Steel who has just quit and gone elsewhere. Long standing employee, a lot to lose by leaving in terms of family upheaval but he says the writing is on the wall and Brexit is the final nail. We live in Brexit Ground Zero in terms strength of vote to leave which makes it all the more sad.
Can we start with the civil unrest before they get the army onto the streets?
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1040567532862820357
well Starmers six tests make it impossible for May's (any) Brexit deal to be supported by Labour
And in the background the piece of excrement that is Aaron Banks has a cunning plan...
https://news.sky.com/story/former-ukip-donor-arron-banks-recruiting-for-the-tories-11497104
Kate Hoey and Nigel Farage getting it "on" to stop chequers...
If you had any doubts about Hoey....
Brexit certainly drives out folks true colours
good news,
https://www.theguardian.com/food/2018/sep/15/food-and-brexit-will-the-cupboard-be-bare-jay-rayner
tin plate sales will go up.
good news,
https://www.theguardian.com/food/2018/sep/15/food-and-brexit-will-the-cupboard-be-bare-jay-rayner
tin plate sales will go up.
Good news indeed.
What do you lot want?
We can export all our food produce from Asia or SE Asia directly to you without having to deal with EU bureaucrats.
😀
That sounds great for the enviroment! 🙂
That sounds great for the enviroment!
There are many vegs or fruits imported from Africa, South America, Asia anyway so all fine.
You can either starve or buy from us or start planting them yourself ... LOL!
Remember if you import from us you are helping the poor farmers. 😀
Have you bought pineapple this summer? If so ALL of them are from Costa Rica. Yes, the distance might be half but still a distance. We have pineapple too as do all the vegs or fruits in the world.
How about durians the King of the fruits?
Tim Wetherspoon and Nigel Forage say we can just import tonnes (Ton's) of cheap food from the colonies...
Aahh its the good old days.... mass unemployment, Farmers planting duck ponds and stone walls for a "subsidies" (benefits) while the poor tramp the new footpaths created for them.
Cost of everything value of nothing...
You can either starve or buy from us or start planting them yourself … LOL!
🎶 An’ I see your true colours shining through... 🎶
An’ I see your true colours shining through…
Actually, that is the tone of the EU bureaucrats who want to starve off the supply to UK.
In the event of EU bureaucrats thinking they can play dirty at least we are here to offer our produce and UK will have alternative source of supply.
EU bureaucrats can't play their dirty tricks on us but they can try if they wish.
Tim Wetherspoon and Nigel Forage say we can just import tonnes (Ton’s) of cheap food from the colonies…
Aahh its the good old days…. mass unemployment, Farmers planting duck ponds and stone walls for a “subsidies” (benefits) while the poor tramp the new footpaths created for them.
Cost of everything value of nothing…
Unlike EU who compete directly with UK we do not want to do that as we just trade in what you want vice versa.
Even Turkey is foolish if they think that joining EU bureaucratic system is a good thing. Regarding Turkey I have a feeling they will not join once they come to their senses.
Ah durian, king of fruits that taste like a zombie onion
Ah durian, king of fruits that taste like a zombie onion
Once you learn to eat durian you will love it forever ... 😀
The price of durian (Musang King variety the best) per kg sold in China is about US$100.
The last time I ate one, not the Musang King but local variety, it took me back to my childhood years where we used to eat a lot of them during the durian season.