it’s the equivalent of VAT being either 17.5% or 20%

IS this another brexit claim – VAT will be reduced if we leave?

the point remains that £10 billion is not a large % in terms of govt spend.

About 5.8 million jobs are linked to trade with Britain, while only 3.6 million British posts are dependent on exports to the EU, policy analyst Civitas said in a report. The EU also has a greater proportion of its labor market at stake.

Can you explain the later to me as 3.6 million is a greater percentage of our working age population than theirs. the number is large but in percentage terms its not even close

UK
41,241,000– 3,6 – or about 10 %

EU – 450 million – I worked this out i failed to find a figure [ 60% of the population] – 5.8 or about 1.2 %

Not sure how this makes it more important for them though the burden is not shared evenly between all countries within the EU.

Its clear they dont want to lose our trade but they are in trouble and we are in deep deep trouble

“A fair deal that allows freedom to trade without unrestricted freedom of movement is the clear best solution, for us, and for them.”

This is never going to happen. It might be the best solution economically but it is not acceptable politically so its pointless discussing this as an option

We cannot leave, stop paying, not have to adhere to their rules and they will just allow us free trade- its beyond wishful thinking to think this has any chance of happening

That Bloomberg piece is really poor and more spin than fact.
Everyone will lose,economically, without free trade Our trade with them is still a greater % of their trade with them so the risk is clearly more on us than it is on them

No amount of pissing around with the figures to spin it will alter this fact- we can hurt an economy that is x5 the size of us a little more than they can hurt us but they can carry the hurt greater than we can as they are less reliant on our trade than we are on them – look at the percentages involved across the EU v across the UK 40 % our trade less than 4% of theirs]. Its inescapable hence whey almost all Brexiters still want free trade.

And the rest of the world is not such in a good place either.

The Level of debt in China is huge, at the point of collapse for the banking system.

European countries are a much safer bet.

@mike the £10bn is after all te grants etc, we pay the EU £18bn gross. They give us back £8bn of our own money and we are suppsoed to be grateful ?

then factual quote

In 2015 the UK government paid £13 billion to the EU budget, and EU spending on the UK was £4.5 billion. So the UK’s ‘net contribution’ was estimated at about £8.5 billion.

Each year the UK gets an instant discount on its contributions to the EU—the ‘rebate’—worth almost £5 billion last year. Without it the UK would have been liable for £18 billion in contributions.

https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/

grateful? well what is the overall economic benefit of being in the UK for UK business, you know mostly the ones paying the tax to foot the bill?

That apart from the irony of demanding strict immigration controls while suggesting that the rest of europe can’t afford to impose those restrictions on UK citizens.

yes but THEY NEED US

Dont you know who we are?

I’m Ronnie UKering.

This is never going to happen.

Funny, that’s what they said about people voting for Brexit too

And the Tories winning a majority at the GE

And Trump winning the republican nomination

Remember how Remain said the Calais Migrant Camp would be move moving to Kent in the event of Brexit ? Well as I have posted a few weeks ago Hollande confirmed today it would close, migrants dispersed around France. Those not claiming asylum in France would be deported immediately and those who’s claims where rejected would likewise be deported.

So far from Brexit making the situation worse for the UK we have the oppostie, the camp is closing and all migrants will be claiming asylum in France or leaving the country.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37462767

So thats the financial argument finished is it?

the Calais Migrant Camp would be move moving to Kent in the event of Brexit ?

Do let us know when Brexit happened…

Well as I have posted a few weeks ago Hollande confirmed today it would close, migrants dispersed around France.

or we may have a slightly different translation

French President Francois Hollande has stepped up his pledge to fight illegal migration, vowing to dismantle a settlement near Calais and prevent similar camps from being established in France.
….
Mr Hollande has been forced to take a visible stance on the issue, under pressure from his conservative predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy, and far-right leader Marine Le Pen.

Each are promoting platforms of security, patriotism and national interest in early campaigning for next year’s elections.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-25/francois-hollande-promises-to-dismantle-refugee-camp-near-calais/7875190

So the French president is upping his game due to internal pressures before Brexit has happened?

Anyway back to the economics, is the EU a net cost to the UK as a whole in terms of trade etc. How much will we pay to maintain some of the links and benefits etc. It is still laughable considering the amounts involved that a big chunk of cash will suddenly become available. Even more so that it will be spent in something like the NHS. A vast chunk will end up patching the holes Brexit creates.

and finally again do you think the EU will agree to free movement for UK passport holders with no movement for EU residents? Maybe it could be fixed where Expats are subject to an extra tax or levy, maybe a visa with a points system?

Back to that Civitas report:

Civitas said that 3.2 percent of all German jobs are linked to exports to the U.K, whereas only 2.4 percent of British jobs are reliant on Germany. Almost one in 10 jobs in Ireland, Malta, Cyprus, and Belgium are connected to trade with the U.K.

Link to =/= reliant on. As the author said on R4. He basically admitted it was a load of BS.

Stunning comment from Macon ex Finance Minister in Hollande’s Government and running as an independent in the Presidential Election. BFMTV TV interview

France would vote Leave if we had an EU Referendum as today there are far too many problems, it is our job to fix these problems amd not give into “popularism”

So now even politicians on the left are acknowledging France wouod vote Leave, Le Penn is speaking of a Referendum as an election pledge.

@mike, financial arguments will run and run, well imo until Greece / euro blows up and then they will be settled. 8.5 vs 10 – arguing its “only” 8.5bn a year is hardly a win is it ?

@Life yup agreed totally, linked to is very vague, even with 12% import duty we will still but VWs but probably less of them.

It’s fun to argue but we won’t see the real impacts for 5-10 years, it’s a matter of vision and optimism vs negativity.

https://www.changebritain.org

Dont think you can call Macron a Leftie !

.

it’s a matter of vision and optimism vs negativity.understanding the difference between reality and wishful thinking

Dont think you can call Macron a Leftie !

everyone is to the left of Jamby and a centrist politician is probably miles to the left 😉

http://www.theguardian.com/education/2016/sep/25/brexit-may-force-15-of-staff-at-uk-universities-to-leave-warns-group?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Some effects of Brexit that are not waiting 5-10 years to occur – the loss of people we need to generate innovation that fuels an economy in the 21 century.

Dont think you can call Macron a Leftie !

So Hollande hired a right winger as Finance Minister ? No left wing candidates good enough ? (Tongue in cheek as I know what you are saying, he said himself he’s not a socialist 😉 ).

Doctor J the key word there is MAY. It’s simply Jounalistic bollix. It may or it may not. If they had real conviction they’d say something like “will” or “most probably”. The piece says 8 out of 32,000 EU academics had left simce Brexit, EIGHT. I would imagine thats a perfectly normal number. Surely a pr-Remain campaign group can come up with some propoganda. I’ve seen their “send it back” video btw

Imagine how shocked I was when it appeared that the left and right hands are not talking to each other or at least remembering who’s in charge…
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-goes-off-theresa-may-s-script-again-and-says-brexit-process-should-begin-before-may-a7328796.html

Good old bojo still making it up as he goes along

Remember how Remain said the Calais Migrant Camp would be move moving to Kent in the event of Brexit ?

My memory may be failing me but I think they were just repeating what the mayor of Calais said.

Remember how Remain said the Calais Migrant Camp would be move moving to Kent in the event of Brexit ?

We haven’t left yet. Hard exit will result in border controls on UK soil.

We haven’t left yet. Hard exit will result in border controls on UK soil.

If it’s at the airport then the airline could be forced to take the hit, therefore they wouldn’t fly them over. Just like they do now.

And just repeat for ferries.

End of problem, really.

Not really, who would stop them boarding a ferry if they have valid tickets? Unless you have UK customs on the ferry?

Not really, who would stop them boarding a ferry if they have valid tickets? Unless you have UK customs on the ferry? [/I]

The crew.

Have you never flown or not understood why airlines check passports?

Chris the airline and ferry company have to check passport and any required visa as @b r says – we’ve been making this point for months. If someone does for e their way on it will be the French Police who will have to remove them. As above just the same as at the airport. Will be the same in the Eurostar.

Calais Jungle will be cleared by Christmas, Hollande confirmed today.

Hollande has already confirmed UK passport control will remain on French side (and French on UK side) in the event of Brexit. The Le Touquet agreement is not dependent upon UK membership.

In other news Deutche Bank is in all sprts of trouble, could go bust and as Germany’s flagship bank thats going to pit the skids under the euro

UK Superyacht sales, profits and employment have had a great year with £’s fall post Brexit being a positive.

i understand how it works for the plane thanks , but ferries dont have same level of security .

Have you not seen the other news where a majority of CEO in the City are preapred to move operations abroad ? and mortgages approval at their lowest for 18 months ?

Of course CEOs are prepared to consider moving, that’s their job.

Security on ferry’s may have to be tightened. Calais Jungle is closing. Existing agreement not dependent upon EU and is continuing.

People seem to be arguing the housing market both ways, continually claiming UK property is “unaffordable” then complaining that market growth has slowed (note market still rising)

i do hope that housing market wont crash , too many people depend on it .

People seem to be arguing the housing market both ways, continually claiming UK property is “unaffordable” then complaining that market growth has slowed (note market still rising)

It’s not arguing, try it someday. The reality is the UK is tied to high property prices due to the way a proportion of people have their finances structured and long term savings. The impact of a fall or crash would be catastrophic for the economy and the banks holding the mortgages.
On the other hand high prices are making it very difficult for the younger generations to afford housing and mean the impacts will be long reaching.
It’s not one problem it’s 2 and the solutions are not that awesome to either.

I see super yacht sales are down in Yorkshire, is this because we have not had our Yoexit vote. We need a referendum for a free Yorkshire, them posh boats will cheap then.

i do hope that housing market wont crash , too many people depend on it .

That’s a minor problem, compared to the way the banks etc are dependent on the ‘values’, nevermind commercial property values.

We’ve needed a cooling of the market for years, in fact since it picked up in the mid-90’s 🙂

@mike my daughter and and her husband bought their first home at 25, saved the deposit themselves. UK is moving to a more continental European model where people rent for longer before buying.

IMO there will be no housing market crash (another Remain scaremongering prediction), growth will slow if immigration numbers come down. Net migration of 350,000 needs at least 250,000 (?) extra properties pa. Aging populations and more divorces are social pressures driving up demand for homes.

We haven’t left yet. Hard exit will result in border controls on UK soil.

@Leku the Le Touquet agreement is totally seperate to EU membership. The French or Brits could choose to tear it up whether we where inside the EU or outside. It has nothing to do with the EU. From memory the US signed a deal with Ireland where you could clear US customs in Ireland for a transatlantic flight.

Jamba – you are right on one level, but if you stamp on people’s feet and poke them in the eye then they may be more inclined to tear up any deals they have with you.

An agreement between two states can be “totally separate” from EU membership, but still be framed in a way that only makes sense while both states are in the EU. Hopefully, the French/English border will change less than some fear. I’m not looking forward to joining the non-EU queues and checks, but it wouldn’t be the end of the world going into France, assuming you don’t regularly work there. I think the work done to stop non-EU migrants entering UK would increase, with the help of France, whether we leave or not, to be honest. I’m mostly agreeing with Jambalaya, for a change.

Funny that Irelend was mentioned though, as our very close agreements with Ireland are indeed “totally seperate” form our EU membership, but I for one have no idea how they can continue once we leave.

as our very close agreements with Ireland are indeed “totally seperate” form our EU membership, but I for one have no idea how they can continue once we leave.

Surely the fact they pre-date the EU is significant?

@mike my daughter and and her husband bought their first home at 25, saved the deposit themselves. UK is moving to a more continental European model where people rent for longer before buying.

OK, is that a good thing or a bad thing for
A) banks
B) people with life. Savings in property
C) first time buyers
D) the economy in general

Or are we back to random unsubstantiated statements

growth will slow if immigration numbers come down. Net migration of 350,000 needs at least 250,000 (?) extra properties pa.

Of course the majority (188,000) of that 333,000 net migration figure are actually from outside the EU. So Brexit won’t change that will it?

What could change is that some of the 123,000 Brits that emigrate every year might decide not to bother. And some of those already living in the rest of the EU might decide to come home.

(Sauce)

So it’s not quite the magical solution that it pretends to be – and that’s assuming we manage to strike an EU trade deal that limits free movement of people at all.

as our very close agreements with Ireland are indeed “totally seperate” form our EU membership, but I for one have no idea how they can continue once we leave.

Surely the fact they pre-date the EU is significant?

One of the many reasons that Ireland and UK had to join the EC at the same time.
Both countries in – we can see how that works.
Both counties out – we can remember how that works (not quite as well, but hey).
One country in, and one out – no one has a clue as far as I can see. Or a plan.

Government already committed to open border between Northern Ireland and Irish Republic. It’s up to the UK how we police the border and we will keep it open. We will reply on co-operation from the Republic to ensure it’s not abused. Easy.

Calais passport control was always a Remain scare story plus a degree of political B/S from Calais mayor who is well aware the camp was never going to re-appear in Kent.

I don’t think you’ve thought that through, as regards Ireland/UK agreements, have you. Just stating a vague wish does not ensure a working agreement.

jamba, it can’t possibly be an open border if we aren’t in the single market, there will be customs and tariffs and checkpoints…