@ign Leave made it clear all EU citizens would be welcome to stay (assuming equivalent rights granted to uk citizens) so “kicking out foreigners” was not on the list.

I was right. I can’t identify a single promise Leave made. At least not one they’ll stand by.

(PS you are right about EU style foreigners, but I think that was leavers in government who made that “promise” after the vote and were instantly told off by other members of the government who said they couldn’t promise that. Plenty of people though they had promised to kick foreigners out – and they weren’t particularly thinking of EU style foreigners.)

It’s also worth noting the 2018 data protection legislation that we’ve signed up to will make it hard for an EU based business to have EU data stored/processed outside the EU. This could make the likes of Lloyds have more than a few ‘traders’ located in an EU country, needing vast parts of their back office as well.

And I made the point about getting over the vote from a remain perspective. As in, you won so now sort it and don’t come back until you’ve got what you promised.

Jambalaya, please list those key campaign promises that Boris promised would be delivered.

Oh, Mayhem has slapped him down again saying it’s nothing to do with him, and she alone will decide what brexit means brexit means brexit means.

Leave made it clear all EU citizens would be welcome to stay (assuming equivalent rights granted to uk citizens) so “kicking out foreigners” was not on the list.

Did they? Was that a “promise”?

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/702269/Theresa-May-European-Union-migration-Brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/04/government-refuses-guarantee-eu-citizens-living-in-uk-can-stay

http://www.theweek.co.uk/brexit/73161/what-will-happen-to-eu-nationals-in-the-uk-after-brexit

Every time Boris opens his blustering, self-serving pie hole on Brexit, he gets shut down by Number 10.

So we will have to wait for Theresa ‘Unable to delegate or communicate’ May to tell us what is happening.

she slapped Davis down too

good!

I rarely agree with Davis’s views but I have more time for him than Boris.

Overall though it does seem we have politicians skilled in bluster, spin and leaks, but less good at negotiation, deal-making and diplomacy.

Ah well, every day’s a school day, now’s their chance to learn to keep their traps shut.

Waiting for Jambalaya to remind us that the Leave campaign isn’t a political party, so they can promise what they want and don’t have to stick by it.

No need cchris you did it for me ! Things are becoming clearer – my interpretation A50 early next year and a potentially accelerated timetime if EU won’t negotiate sensibly thus saving us 12-18 months of contributions or £10-15 billion. Our “free-market” access just isn’t worth that much.

Cheer up Remainers 🙂 Hannah is spot on in his remark that some in the Remain camp are so wedded to their views they can only interpret any negative news as Brexit related.

[video]https://youtu.be/tzVk2FkZgUE[/video]

Sorry to repost but…

How can the article 50 deal not be customised for the UK/EU? It’s the deal between the UK and the EU to leave the EU and the terms of the divorce. I assume he is trying to play to the uninformed (spot a theme here) the 2 ways article 50 can be completed is when both sides agree or 2 years end. If we end early then one side got screwed and we are in the weaker position.
So an early end probably means all the same terms as being in the UK but paying for the privilige with no say in decision making.

How the f does that work?

Yup here’s the remoaning Express, whining on about the negative effects of Brexit

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/712859/Brexit-Job-Losses-Social-Care-UK

At least Hannan has found his way out of the hole he fell into on newsnight when he reneged on the 350m for the NHS and reducing immigration, right after the vote

[video]https://youtu.be/t5jTRoySFfo[/video]

So when will we trigger A50?

Personal reasons, planning a trip to either the USA or europe in early Feb and if we do trigger I suspect the pound will take a nosedive again!

Gamble to wait until then and buy currency?

Mike IMO an early end to the A50 process is we just accelerate with no trade deal agreed but we save the £10bn a year. It’s in the EUs interests to stringing things out as we are contributing massively and after any deal we’ll be contributing zero. Remember there was the discussion that we could just repeal the legislation that took us into the EEC/EU and we’d be out immediately. There is a Tory group now actively campaigning for A50 with accelerated timetable and no trade deal as that gurantees no freedom of movement and no budget contribution, ie no fudges

@Kimbers the Referendum result was a surprise so £ tumbled, A50 in Jan/Feb is expected so much less likely to impact £. If you want to play it safe then transfer half now.

What we should do is phone up the EU customer service line and tell them we are cancelling, because £10 billion is a bit steep, and we don’t really want the immigrant bit anyway. Then the day before the notice period is up, the retentions department will phone us with a better deal.

🙄

It’s in the EUs interests to stringing things out as we are contributing massively and after any deal we’ll be contributing zero.

Why are they asking us to get on with it then as its in their interests we never trigger it?

@Kimbers the Referendum result was a surprise so £ tumbled, A50 in Jan/Feb is expected so much less likely to impact £. If you want to play it safe then transfer half now.

A few weeks back you said £ was recovering. I note it’s now lower than immediately after the result. Who knows where it’ll go. When is the BoE planning to inject another round of QE to prop up the economy? Immediately after that would be a sensible choice 🙂

jambalaya – Member
Mike IMO an early end to the A50 process is we just accelerate with no trade deal agreed but we save the £10bn a year.

Brilliant, how much will it cost the UK to save £10bn… I’m sure that will result in way more than that being ripped from the value of the FTSE/£ and british companies.

There is a Tory group now actively campaigning for A50 with accelerated timetable and no trade deal as that gurantees no freedom of movement and no budget contribution, ie no fudges

So basically removing your right to live in France, stranding 1000’s of people in spain, crashing that property market again. Writing off UK exports to the EU overnight and all that.
Always beware of ideological idiots who want something so badly they ignore the impact.

jambalaya – Member

It’s in the EUs interests to stringing things out as we are contributing massively and after any deal we’ll be contributing zero.

Or we might be contributing a whole lot more in order to get access to the single market. Or paying an equivalent amount (or more) in tariffs.

“Massively” is a bit of an exaggeration as well. £10bn a year is really not very much money. About half the price of LinkedIn, or Hinkley Point, for example.

EDIT: forgot, it’s actually not £10bn, but only £8.5bn.

£10bn a year is really not very much money.

😯

Equivalent to about 2.5p on income tax.

And obviously any money invested in the EU yields dividends by helping wealth creation there, increasing markets for our exports. It’s a win win.

ninfan – Member
Equivalent to about 2.5p on income tax.

But only relevant if it’s a true cost, after rebate there is the money paid to the UK, farmers, projects etc. (all of which somebody promised to carry on funding) then there is the negative of lost trade or tariffs, the cost of enforcing them, the cost of repealing and re writing legislations, the lost tax income from business who decide that the UK is not somewhere to be doing business (banks for instance) along with the income tax from those nice immigrants who turn out to be net contributors to the economy.

If only it was as easy as a slogan, in fact why would people try pushing figures like that around when they know it’s not an accurate way of representing the situation???

If only it was as easy as a slogan, in fact why would people try pushing figures like that around when they know it’s not an accurate way of representing the situation???

You mean like how every household would be £4,300 a year worse off after Brexit?

Or are we back into that ‘only Brexit campaign lies matter’ trap?

At this point we are into the impact an Brexit, dealing with what is going to happen. Much as it would be lovely to live in your binary world ninfan they current issue kind of surrounds things like exiting. I guess we will find out if households are worse off, Jamby’s plan to shove 2 fingers to the EU and leave would probably make that an underestimate.

We could go back and analyse that figure if you want but nobody is bringing it to the table at the moment. The Save 10bn was chucked in there as if magically we could add 10bn to the Uk economy and do what we wanted with it. That is not the case.

You mean like how every household would be £4,300 a year worse off after Brexit?

Or are we back into that ‘only Brexit campaign lies matter’ trap?

So in your world that forecast was meant to occur immediately after the referendum? Is that what they said? Obviously the Brexit lies that annoy people would be the ones that they denied immediately after the outcome.

At this point we are into the impact an Brexit, dealing with what is going to happen.

Except we don’t have any idea, we’re in uncharted waters when it does happen (we’ve not left yet).

I hope it goes well for all our sakes, but if it turns out to be a complete bit of a mess, which given those responsible on both sides, I won’t be surprised by, I won’t hesitate to say “I told you so”.

Except we don’t have any idea, we’re in uncharted waters when it does happen (we’ve not left yet).

So possibly the sensible and rational way would be to start with what we do know and work from there (we know that the net cost of EU membership is not 10bn for a start)
Amazingly there is a lot of data out there that could be used to form policy and progress a way forward. People on both sides won’t like that way forward but going back to making numbers up and shouting loudly to make headlines is a bad way to go.

Look Ninfan, I’ve found this marvellous quote:

The Treasury has published an analysis (pdf) of the implications of Britain leaving the EU and concluded that the economy would be 6% smaller by 2030, costing each household £4,300.

So you can wait 14 years to see if you’re correct. About 14 hours after the result, the first Brexit lies unravelled.

Does anyone have a list of the businesses or business owners that backed Brexit?

Dyson and Wetherspoons obviously but who else?

JCB.

the first Brexit lies unravelled.

they weren’t lies they were accountancy errors.

A few weeks back you said £ was recovering. I note it’s now lower than immediately after the result.

I’ve no idea why anyone would want to make a judgement on the movement of currency. Way too many factors.

Irrespective I would just get on and book the holiday.

Wikipedia has a good list of endorsements, including businesses and “business leaders”;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_in_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016

Just the list of political parties for each side is… enlightening

I am always puzzled when BSers spout nonsense figures. Are they:

1. Too lazy to check them
2. Too ignorant to understand them
3. Too immersed in constant BS that they can’t distinguish between fact and fiction – start to believe their own BS
4. Happy to treat the truth and others with complete contempt – the ends justify the means approach
5. Simply poor wind up merchants

Either way, they end up looking pretty stupid despite their perceived victories.

Yeah, ww3 is completely sensible. Never has bullshit been piled into the middle with such vigour by two sides in the history of bullshit.

@igm

Businesses don’t pay the £10bn
Businesses benefit from depressed wages and freedom of movement
Businesses are notoriously short term, they care much more about 6-12 months than 3, 5 and 10 years
Businesses love the tax games they can play in the EU

@mike the £10bn is after all te grants etc, we pay the EU £18bn gross. They give us back £8bn of our own money and we are suppsoed to be grateful ?

As for £10bn being “not much” it’s the equivalent of VAT being either 17.5% or 20% – you choose, when we bailed out Ireland we lent the, £4bn fwiw.

Even without freedom of movement Spain, Italy, France etc are not going to kick out 1000’s of Brits living there paying taxes and spending mkney they desperately need.

If we pay tarifs on imports goods will get more expensive, that BM/VW/Seat/Renault will cost 12% more but non-EU cars will cost the same, customers can choose what to do. As we have a massive trade deficit the UK government will make a huge amount in import duties. Trade tarifs boost domestic demand (a good thing) and it’s trivial for financial services to setup a branch/shell co and “re-brand”. What do you think Apple/Amazon/Starbucks have done ? You can’t do that with a farm or a car factory. The average level of import dury would be 3%, I saw from the Corbyn thread duty on lamb is 40% (set by EU to screw NZ etc) well I ‘ll be very happy to know my Lamb comes from Wales or Scotland and know by beef burger is beef not horse.

Either way, they end up looking pretty stupid despite their perceived victories.

The only “victory” Remain can claim is the currency down 5-10% and that’s lead to a boost in tourism and manufacturing.

France btw have confirmed the Le Touquet agreement will stand (customs on French side) and what’s more they are closing Calais Jungle and dispersing the migrants all over France (very expesnive and unpopular which is why they never did it before). Post Brexit vote there has been a big increase in Calais migrants chosing to claim asylum in France as they say they don’t feel they will be welcome in the UK.

jambalaya – Member

@igm
Businesses don’t pay the £10bn
Businesses benefit from depressed wages and freedom of movement
Businesses are notoriously short term, they care much more about 6-12 months than 3, 5 and 10 years
Businesses love the tax games they can play in the EU

Jamba – I think you misunderstand. I’m drawing up my boycott list. I will not buy from Dyson, or drink in Wetherspoons etc. And I’m going to encourage others to do the same.

It may not do much but I don’t reward evil gits*.

* I accept they may just be misguided.

The only “victory” Remain can claim is the currency down 5-10% and that’s lead to a boost in tourism and manufacturing.

Why would Remain claim any victory here? The fall in the value of £ is a result of Remain losing the vote.

Like all things economic – it is a double-edged sword. With this indirect injection coupled with an actual cut in rates we have more of the folly of taxing savers, only worse. But at least UK shoppers keep on their merry way.

EU has more to lose than the UK in the event of trade tariffs.

Bloomberg Article

Why would that make any one happy? We benefit when the EU is rel strong (esp Germany, France, Neth) and vice versa, this petty them and us stuff shows a remarkable lack of understanding of business basics