Err, we may well be out by then if the brexit bill is passed before parliament is dissolved.

Will, if enough Labour MPs are willing to do that, it’s going to get messy for the rest of the Party, isn’t it.

Realistically, the bill can only complete in time with the help of the leader of the opposition, and I don’t expect he will help Johnson out in that way, why would it be in his interest as regards preparing for an election?

He’s stated before, has he not, get past the no deal threat, then GE.

it’s going to get messy for the rest of the Party, isn’t it.

We don’t know. The jury is still out on whether brexit being sorted before an election will be good or bad for labour. There are arguments on both sides. If there is to be a push to pass the bill before the election then I would expect labour to try to insert a customs union and workers protections into it. If they succeed they will be able to go into an election saying they achieved the fabled ‘red unicorn brexit’.

However, the notion that every Tory MP is part of some sort of national conspiracy to subjugate the proletariat is utterly moronic.

Imagine voting to take money off disabled people. I feel sick. Check the names and check which party they are in.

list of people who voted to cut diability benefits

What was that about having the same vote over and over until you get the result you want?

Oh, so when you say “passed” @dazh, you mean complete transformed beyond what Johnson and his MPs will accept. Not going to happen. The government is not going to take us out with the all UK Customs Union back in place in the Agreement, not just as a backstop, but as its stated aim. Not. A. Chance.

Not. A. Chance.

Well lets hope so…

Westminster voting intention…

if "the deadline for the UK to leave the EU has been extended beyond the 31st of October 2019":

LAB: 27%
CON: 26%
BREX: 20%
LDEM: 18%
GRN: 4%

via @ComRes, 16 – 17 Oct

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) October 24, 2019

That assumes an election with us still in the EU, does it not? Labour will not gift Johnson the success of having got us out of the EU just before a General Election.

Well, if they do, they are politically naive beyond belief.

Anyway, what are you saying…

1) the bill is passed in current form with Labour voting for it ?

2) the bill is passed after being amended to have Customs Union as stated destination, and Conservatives voting for it ?

We will still be in the EU when the general election hits. I can’t see it being any other way. Unless we have a referendum first, which now looks as likely as… [metaphors and similes fail me].

That assumes an election with us still in the EU, does it not?

I would say so yes.

Anyway, what are you saying…

It could go either way. There are some in labour who think brexit being done will enable them to turn the election into an anti-austerity election which will benefit them, and others who think brexit not being done will give them an advantage as the brexit party will take votes off the tories. Who knows what will happen? I don’t, but my own opinion would be that it’s better to go into an election with it not being done so they can call out Johnson for being the snake-oil salesman he is, and campaign on the platform of being the only party offering a 2nd vote. The last thing they should do is allow Johnson to say the words ‘I got it done’.

The last thing they should do is allow Johnson to say the words ‘I got it done’.

Agreed. It would be game over.

[mind you, it probably is anyway]

There’s a new thread for election speculation and whataboutery 🙂

When I think of the Tory’s who are driving this whole project, I think of him. A man utterly and completely devoid of the remotest shread of compassion, empathy or humanity.

IDS is just a nob….
JRM … probably clinically a psychopath…
Bojo … self obsessed his only ideology is BoJo…
Patel … scary

Loads of others, like their labour counterparts are doing what was voted for… even if they know its crap … because in a no-win situation they are taking the one that they can just say “I’m just carrying out the wishes of my constituents…

Clarke was just a part of an organisation (one that for him is work)… many people get dragged into stuff. Unlike many Labour MP’s though he actually voted for what he thought was best

This is an interesting one. Do we gravitate towards people of similar political persuasions or is it that our position in society (work, leisure interests, etc.) mean we tend to rub shoulders with those of a similar view anyway?

Personally, I can’t be totally sure but I think I know 2 tories and 2 maybe 3 brexiteers.

Most of the people I know I assume are Tory’s I’m just assuming. I could be way off… it’s like (to use more famous people) if I bumped into Richard Branson I might just assume “prob votes Tory” but obviously I’d have been wrong. Weirdly though I know quite a few Brexiters…. and there is no guess work involved.

However … if I take the bunch of presumed Tory’s I’d guess I can think of quite a few descent humans.

The government is not going to take us out with the all UK Customs Union back in place in the Agreement, not just as a backstop, but as its stated aim. Not. A. Chance.

And yet this is the very line I have now heard trotted out twice from Labour MPs who have ‘northern leave constituencies’ (translation: had a complacent, paternalistic, outdated view of their ‘salt of the earth honest working man’ constituents that led to them being caught on the hop and are now desperately trying to appear just racist enough to keep their majorities).

There was the MP for South Shields and Lisa Nandy who have both engaged in Cummings-esque levels of cynicism by claiming they only voted for the bill because they don’t like it and want to amend it to include staying in the customs union. As though the Customs Union is a mere detail that little scamp Boris is just holding out on for a prank.

They know full well what game they are playing, they have **** all chance of getting such a fundamental change out of BloHard, especially now they have emboldened him.

Cynical douchebags.

if I take the bunch of presumed Tory’s I’d guess I can think of quite a few descent humans.

Then they’re honestly voting for the wrong party, or they’re just raging hypocrites. Although TBH I’m not really talking about people who vote tory, but the fully signed up prosetylisers, mouthpieces, politicians, activists and others who see it as their mission to keep a tory govt in power.

I can’t see Labour backing a general election.

What will they back?

Told to abstain apparently.

Does this mean it’ll pass?

Labour back an election?

Of course they won’t

Selling Corbyn to the electorate is like selling buggery to Mormons.

Any election is just a case of when, not if, grandad gets to shuffle off to the allotment

Regarding MP`s and taring with the same brush , many are just like you – the know full well that there are bad/mad/nutters in their own party , they are doing their best to mitigate that and to keep things working , seeing everything in black and white good/bad and being entrenched dogmatic and closing your mind is not how things get done anywhere.
Based on a sample of 4 mp`s that I have met and one who I got to know very well the stereo types being thrown around are very much like the ones being used about the people who vote for them, they do not help and devalue all of us.

Does this mean it’ll pass?

Unlikely because it needs 2/3 majority.

SNP (blah blah blah) 1979 (blah, blah, blah) Thatcher (blah, blah, blah).

Unlikely because it needs 2/3 majority

2/3rds of all MPs or 2/3rds of the MPs that bother to vote?

If Labour abstain it’ll be a cake walk for the tories.

Two thirds of the total number of MPs have to vote for it. Abstention is the same as voting against, TBH.

So now we know what Cummings meant when he said the french would reject an extension. Their strategy all along has been to piss them off so they won’t grant it. We’re back in no deal territory. Next week is going to be mental if Macron can’t be persuaded to climb down.

Looks like things are, yet again, getting even more mental

EU set to put Brexit delay on hold after Johnson’s ultimatum

So no election, no extension?

The pressure is all on Grandad now then. Good job he copes with it so well

Dianne Abbot was as clear as mud this morning (Quelle surprise!) on Radio 4. She said that Labour party wanted a general election and would vote for one. She was then informed that the labour party whips had told labour MP’s to abstain on any vote. Her reply “well… I can’t speak for what the whips are saying”. Of course not Dianne. Why on earth, as a member of the shadow cabinet, would you know what party policy presently is on such a major issue? That would be mental!

No wonder Johnson wants an election. The labour party is a total ****ing shambles!

Sajiv Javid this morning in a response to taking no-deal off the table: “While the bill is being debated then no-deal is off the table”. So basically do what we want then pursue no-deal.

Their strategy all along has been to piss them off so they won’t grant it.

No surprise, surely that was mooted on here a while ago?

It’s just more of the same utterly disgusting brinkmanship gambling. All much in the style of the John Nash game theory driven type politics of the Cuban missile crisis.

Which, if I’m not mistaken, is one of psycho Dom’s favourite theories.

finishthat

Regarding MP`s and taring with the same brush , many are just like you – the know full well that there are bad/mad/nutters in their own party , they are doing their best to mitigate that and to keep things working , seeing everything in black and white good/bad and being entrenched dogmatic and closing your mind is not how things get done anywhere.
Based on a sample of 4 mp`s that I have met and one who I got to know very well the stereo types being thrown around are very much like the ones being used about the people who vote for them, they do not help and devalue all of us.

Much better than what I was going to say…

I personally have never voted Tory and voted mostly labour and LibDem a couple of times depending where i lived at the time.
However when you see blinkered hate it really makes you question the entire process.

The EU do not want to be the ones who force a no deal departure, so the question is not whether they offer an extension but how long an extension they will offer.  Macron is allegedly favouring the offer of a few weeks, he’s not proposing to refuse an extension at all.  If they offer us a month, 6 weeks or 3 months I expect it’ll be passed by parliament.

The only issue is that the EU are waiting to see what happens in Westminster, an parliament is waiting to see what the EU offer so we need one of them to break that standoff – that’s the only route to no deal that I can see at the moment.

So, if this impasse in parliament continues, then it’s no deal/crash out time next week then?

Dom and Dommer and the ERG nut-jobs get their dream result by default?

Can the border stay open in NI under WTO rules?

Surely if that international border is left open we have to leave all borders open?

No deal, no open border, no?

Bohnson & his pet psycho don’t really care about sectarian violence kicking off again, or probably if it goes eventually to Unified Ireland, with a side order of Scotland indyref and back to EU. As long as the fat blond chump is in #10, anything goes.

Johnson’s die in a ditch moment coming back to haunt him?

The question now has an added option (leave with different deal), but in @YouGov's latest poll support among Leavers for no deal is 43%, + 6 on 20/21.10, while that for @BorisJohnson's deal is 31%, – 15. Result of likely failure to meet 31.10 deadline? https://t.co/66XLCqkkwa

— What UK Thinks: EU (@whatukthinks) October 25, 2019

& We haven’t even not left on the 31st yet

If leavers are swinging back to farages position, that’s bad news for Tories in GE

Having a border must mean no deals with the US.

So who does that leave us with?

Well if there’s rolling back of the Good Friday Agreement leading to any border infrastructure between NI and the Republic then there’s no possibility of a trade deal between the UK and the USA. Congress has stated that explicitly.

zippykona

Can the border stay open in NI under WTO rules?

Surely if that international border is left open we have to leave all borders open?

I am no authority but I’d agree…. just one of 5000 other we won’t even look at the consequences though – Obviously noone has deigned to even promise this???

So, on one hand, we have Boris who has negotiated this marvellous deal, but seemingly doesn’t want it passed by Parliament under any circumstances than a rush-job with no scrutiny.
No-one seems to be questioning the fact that he can stake so much political capital on renegotiating, have ‘some’ measure of success in that, and immediately throw that aside in favour of a GE simply because of an arbitrary deadline of October 31.

TBH, opposition should just see whatever extension is offered, VONC Boris, get this fabled ‘unity gvt’ in place and actively push through an amended version of this deal either making it softer or contingent on a ref, or both.

The dream of revocation is pretty much dead, unless no extension is offered, which would look like political meddling by the EU, which they have claimed not to want to do.

Corbyn did a reasonable job getting a Commons majority assembled before, he needs to do it again quickly, tempting various Tory wets across with a promise of a softer Brexit.

Then we have an election in April with Boris not even able to claim that he delivered Brexit.

“Well if there’s rolling back of the Good Friday Agreement leading to any border infrastructure between NI and the Republic then there’s no possibility of a trade deal between the UK and the USA. Congress has stated that explicitly.”

Well that would be plus point – atrade deal with trump would certainly not be in the UK’s best interests!

Well that would be plus point – atrade deal with trump would certainly not be in the UK’s best interests!

Well quite, trump is the ultimate deal maker, the genius of deals, defining the Art Of The Deal!

Right?