Energy Prices – To fix or not to fix, that is the question

When oil and gas amount to around 73% of the UK energy mix but you we were until recently actively discouraging investment in UK production it isn’t a suprise when prices increase if there is a world shortage.

As for electricity, relying on supply from other countries seems like folly. When the chips are down they will look after number 1.

I remember reading about Scottish wind being balanced by Norwegian hydro.

Not looking so clever now.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-08/norway-must-follow-eu-rules-if-cutting-power-exports-lobby-says

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/09/uks-energy-crisis-response-could-include-winter-power-cuts

Grim

One solution would be to introduce inverted tier rates for energy bills. You pay a lower unit rate for your initial usage, say your first 5,000kWH per year, and then a higher rate after that. You could also have a third or fourth rate that would impact those people with large houses, indoor swimming pools and gaudy Christmas light displays.

This is the opposite of what happens now where large businesses have lower rates than households. The high standing charges also mean that lower energy users effectively pay a higher per unit rate.

You pay a lower unit rate for your initial usage, say your first 5,000kWH per year, and then a higher rate after that.

Absolutely, I’ve been thinking this for years as the fairest way to attribute costs of going green etc etc, Ditto with those on prepayment shouldn’t be paying more, same old same old it’s expensive to be poor 🙁

Edit:- one issue now would be those with EVs might end up being penalised due to higher electricity use..

Edit:- one issue now would be those with EVs might end up being penalised due to higher electricity use..

Balanced by the fact they don’t pay excise duty or fuel duty.

Yes to progressive pricing! That would certainly focus minds, especially at the corporate end where you still see office buildings lit up like Christmas trees 24/7.

I remember reading about Scottish wind being balanced by Norwegian hydro.

Not looking so clever now.

IIRC that was proposed prior to Longannet shutting down in early 2016. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Progressive pricing would get my vote!

No chance of it happening though as it will impact business profit.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Hindsight doesn’t come into it. Bad choices. Some experts were warning about the risks of over reliance on wind and solar a decade ago.

However, in my opinion it is a grave mistake to place intermittent renewable energy at the heart of power generation strategy. Without vast and energy efficient storage of renewable power, the UK runs the risk of stumbling into winter blackouts. These could occur during extreme cold conditions similar to those experienced by Europe in recent years,

UK electricity demand, GDP and energy policy

Balanced by the fact they don’t pay excise duty or fuel duty.

Yeah, but those things were to get us to use EVs. If you now start penalising them we’ll stick with our old fossil cars.

Progressive pricing would get my vote!

Same here
Also abolish standing charge and roll it up into the unit charge

This would be progressive and help those low users reduce their bills

If it was done correctly, it would be neutral at a national level

I was smug about fixing last Oct, just before everything started going nuts. Gave my meter readings to EON and moved over happily.

Got a bill today from Octopus, my old supplier. 10 months after leaving them they now want me to pay £192.

The really frustrating thing is the statement says -£192 for electricity use and then £192 credit for reversed account charges. So in my mind an debt followed by identical credit should be zero balance.

Really not looking forward to trying to work this on out. Either way, I could do without it.

Yeah, but those things were to get us to use EVs. If you now start penalising them we’ll stick with our old fossil cars.

Or get public transport, use active travel options etc etc.

The whole point of those taxes is to push people towards better options.

Hindsight doesn’t come into it. Bad choices. Some experts were warning about the risks of over reliance on wind and solar a decade ago.

No, the thought at the time was that we had an incoming supply from a country on equal trading terms. We **** that good and proper.

I agree that the renewables issue was an still is being kicked into the long grass. I’ve heard of balancing schemes but thus far have yet to hear of any being deployed in Scotland. This far the only base load we have is, presumably Peterhead, christ knows what happens if that trips as we are then left with Torness as our sole synchronisation point and I’m not even sure if they’re allowed to do that. I guess they must but in a few years we’re going to have no backup whatsoever. That worries me. I should probably read some grid stuff and see what the score is…

This fits here just as well as in the Raymond Briggs thread,

Thursday’s ⁦@thetimes⁩ cartoon. A tribute to Raymond Briggs and his masterpiece “When the wind blows” https://t.co/PKr0FVAiYO pic.twitter.com/uqx0AjkZXs

— Morten Morland (@mortenmorland) August 10, 2022

Tesco might even put doors back on all their freezer units yhat are open to the atmosphere.
Crazy costs andd loads up the atmosphere with co2, which makes the world hotter, so the freezers have to work harder, producing more co2, making the world hotter and its self propelling circle of stupid

Tesco might even put doors back on all their freezer units yhat are open to the atmosphere.
Crazy costs andd loads up the atmosphere with co2, which makes the world hotter, so the freezers have to work harder, producing more co2, making the world hotter and its self propelling circle of stupid

It’s up there with the shops which have the air-con on full lick in the middle of summer with the doors wide open.
The same places seem to also have the heating on flat out in the middle of winter as well with the same doors open.

Just watched C4 News…

French prices have gone up 4%
German prices 40%
Other European countries fall between those two figures.
Our prices have gone up 250% and are set to double that by next spring.

If prices reach those heights then we will have a revolution.

France is largely self sufficient based on a lot of nuclear electricity isn’t it? Germany im expecting to consume it’s gas reserves and then have to turn off industry to keep homes warm…. How they are at 40% rise when we are here, using virtually no Russian gas, at 250% rise… Our market is broken.

Thank heaven my wood stack is enough for 2 or 3 winters.

Apparently we are shipping electricity to France at the moment because they have two nuclear reactors shut down for repairs.

We are selling it at £900 per kw. The situation is expected to reverse as we have an arrangement to buy electricity from France next year, at £2000 per kw

Obviously those figures are relative to each other at today’s prices, you’ll find your mileage might vary considerably in the near future..

British gas spot market prices are currently lower than Europe. Not higher.

Major changes to Europe’s gas markets in response to the conflict with Russia

As for French electricity prices EDF is sueing the govt for billions for loss of revenue. If you sell something for less than it costs you go bust eventually.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/10/edf-sues-french-government-for-7bn-after-forced-to-sell-energy-at-a-loss-macron-price-cap

The same places seem to also have the heating on flat out in the middle of winter as well with the same doors open.

Our Morrisons has heaters blasting to keep you warm whilst you browse the chiller aisle.

Yup.

We are selling it at £900 per kw. The situation is expected to reverse as we have an arrangement to buy electricity from France next year, at £2000 per kw

wait, am I reading that correctly? That our government signed a deal that a 5yo would know is utterly stupid?

That our government signed a deal that a 5yo would know is utterly stupid?

You’ve met our government, yes?

inkster
Free Member

Apparently we are shipping electricity to France at the moment because they have two nuclear reactors shut down for repairs.

We are selling it at £900 per kw. The situation is expected to reverse as we have an arrangement to buy electricity from France next year, at £2000 per kw

Obviously those figures are relative to each other at today’s prices, you’ll find your mileage might vary considerably in the near future..

@inkster what’s the source of these numbers, hopefully 900/kw is a typo…

How they are at 40% rise when we are here, using virtually no Russian gas

German end consumers have been fairly well protected because the large utilities that purchase from Russia aren’t allowed to pass the costs of having to purchase, (horrificly expensive) gas on the spot markets to make up the shortfall. That ends in October after a change in the law a few weeks ago.

@inkster what’s the source of these numbers, hopefully 900/kw is a typo…

No, that’d be right. It’s a commodity traded on supply/demand so at times it’ll go much higher than that for a period of a couple of hours or so. I’ll see if I can find the website that shows this.

Some French nuclear stations are having to massively reduce output due to river levels and temperatures mean insufficient cooling. A few reactors maintenance wouldn’t be unusual, particularly during the lower damand summer months.

presumably its £900 per g (giga) w not kw – I only pay 24p per kw – I might sell my electric onto the french or back to the uk govt at that price.

presumably its £900 per g (giga) w not kw

Sorry, yeah I’m missed that unit error, although not GW, but MW, (megawatt)

Here’s the graph. Prices change every 30 mins.

“@inkster what’s the source of these numbers, hopefully 900/kw is a typo…”

Mark Urban on last night’s Nesnight.

This topic really is hotting up. pun intended….
So what’s going to be the snapping point because people just are not going to pay not through stubbornness but pure economic reasons how can someone running a house and earning less than 25k have that pushed on them.

25k pulled out of my head but it’s about the average for shop work/ parcel depo round my way.

3 months take home pay for me…… 🙁
For many though its not ability bur willingness.
For some people, not all, they don’t want to drop their standard of living to pay for electricity. No humble Facebook bragging available to show how well you are doing by posting a picture of your gas bill with paid stamped on it. Where we’ve all seen the photos of the airline tickets, or Tom is checking in at Heathrow.
For a few people, not goimg skiing for Xmas, Cornwall for Easter then 2 weeks in The Algarve for summer is what they want. Its what they are used to doing. They will have the ability to pay, but would much rather be giving that cash to Tui, or BMW leasing.
They work hard and the reward is nice things and ‘ making memories’ bullocks. Seeing their £150d to ssec going up to £350 makes it harder to keep up with previous years frivolity.
However there are also millions who simply dont have any money at the end of the month amd dont ever go on holiday, run 2 cars, have expensive hobbies who are royaly screwed.

Have feed in tariffs gone up 3 fold?
Shell sell me 100% green energy, has then sun got more expensive or not been out for the last 4 months?

Windfall tax is not the answer. Maybe subsidised solar is, but thr tories will find a way for cash to make it into their mates pockets securing them lucrative consultancy fees for the future whilst telling the minions they ar the low tax party.

Holy Thread Resurrection Batman!!!!

I maxed out my luck by fixing two years ago, just before prices went through the roof. And, because I still got the vouchers, my fuel bills have never been cheaper. But, alas, my jammy fix end in a few weeks.

Best 12 month fix offer would see an extra £1,400 p/a on the bill. Tracker, at todays rates, would be £200 more than that. But tracker will be best if prices fall.

So, STW Energy gamblers, do play safe or play the energy markets?

I had an offer to fix at 30p kwh for 3 years. Being on business cintract and no chance of a smart meter i hope it pans out long term. But as i am currently on 60p a unit it will seem beter whatever.

I think energy prices are due another fall soon, so maybe wait and see before making a commitment

https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605440/will-energy-prices-go-down

‘Although the price cap is forecast to drop by £251 – from £2,074 to £1,823 – for the final three months of this year, the actual saving most households will make will be a lot lower. The average household energy bill is set to fall by just £149 in real terms. This is because from October the regulator will change its calculations for how it works out the average energy bill.’

Nice one Ofgem

Energy prices are forecasted to be similar for the foreseeable, so its probably not going to make much difference if you have a fixed/variable deal.

However, as the market begins to open up, now is the time to change suppliers if you’re unhappy with your current one.

Energy prices are forecasted to be similar for the foreseeable

Cornwall Insights are predicting that they will increase in Q1 due to the strikes in Australia.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-66571542

Outguessing the people that do this for a living is very hard right now, the best offers will come if supplier start to get competitive again. I’m staying variable (Octopus) but I’m not convinced that’s the right move.

i went solar+battery at a large investment, allows me to self generate, plus charge the batteries at a low rate. i chose this route as it’s sort of secure, i pay this much now, and thats how much it costs.

Most fixed tariffs can be cancelled or changed within the fix period, weather it’s worth doing so depends on any exit charges. British Gas offered me a fixed tariff with no exit fees, not sure if just changing to another BG tariff, or if I could move supplier without penalty. If it’s £200 cheaper with low or no penalties I’d do that.

Shell sell me 100% green energy, has then sun got more expensive or not been out for the last 4 months?

In real terms. Yes.

I’ve just moved from the ~30p/Kw variable rate to Octopus Tracker (daily price change made up of wholesale price + whatever margin they have decided they want to make). I believe over a typical year its about 30% cheaper than variable BUT not sure what a typical year is anymore.

My plan if it goes crazy is I guess to buy a battery for my old solar panels and move to a peak:off peak tariff

small cut in the EPC – £151 per year for the average house.

In the detail, the cost per unit has fallen by more and the standing charge gone up. I know a few have queried why that is in the past – Ofgem guy explained that it covers the fixed cost of supply – networks, call centres, etc. – and if they reduced or scrapped the SC then low users benefit disproportionately. Which might sound good for net zero reasons, etc., driving those behaviours, but their analysis suggested that the losers would be pensioners, disabled, and so on where there is less option but to keep houses warm.

So in essence we (I’m assuming most of us are generally not disabled pensioners, apologies to the few that are) are subsidising them through the SC on our bills which I don’t have too much trouble with. You can argue the Gov should do it via warm homes allowances or whatever – but in the end that would be tax anyway, so we pay there too.

Or of course energycos take less profit…….