Post debate Ipsos 538 polling here

I think what most pollsters are missing, as they always do, is the difference between pre election poles and exit poles. Natural dems who are not massively motivated just won’t turn up with Biden – the 2024 version- on the ticket. Or at least not in the numbers needed in the states that matter.

I don’t know about recent polls but I have little doubt that Sanders will still not be acceptable to the Democrat establishment.

There comes a point where the “establishment” has to accept a couple of simple facts. They don’t have the luxury of time and you have to be voted for to win.

It doesn’t matter how acceptable you are to the grandees if you can’t fulfill those criteria.

The problem if you choose a ‘vote-winner’ over someone who is the best leader for the party is you win the vote and then the party gets torn apart. An incredibly pertinent example being Trump – he gets the votes but putting him in the driving seat means everything around him gets destroyed. 40 out of 44 of the most senior officials who worked around Trump in his presidency are not endorsing him this time round. Its easy to forget now that the republican senate and congress are pandering to him, that they themselves blocked much of what he tried to do in Governments – in fact they didn’t start to back him until he was being impeached.

On this side of the pond Johnson had very much the same effect – easy to sell to voters – pretty much impossible to govern with and he actively drove anyone half useful out of the party. Corbyn similarly was popular with the crowd at Glastonbury but destructive to the party – and he was very much a similar figure to Sanders – a publicly popular figure precisely because he’s a party outsider.

I think what most pollsters are missing

I think it goes further than that, as they need respondents to the polling in the first place. So if theres a significant demographic motivated to vote, but not to respond to polling, it’ll be a false reading.

To be clear, I’ve no idea how this election will pan out. And the suggestion that there are significant sections of the electorate not responding to polls is not something I know to be true or false.

538 article https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/

Just to let people know, 538 is no longer the same 538 it was at the last election.  Nate Silver left and is now doing his own thing.

Unfortunately much of his analysis is behind a paywall now but here’s his immediate take on the debate:

https://www.natesilver.net/p/joe-biden-should-drop-out

He pretty much nails it there.

The problem if you choose a ‘vote-winner’ over someone who is the best leader for the party is you win the vote and then the party gets torn apart.

The difficulty is time. The most important thing for the Democratic Party now is to get this election won because the option is four years of MAGA.That’ll be a disaster for the US and a disaster for Ukraine

I’m not backing any presidential candidate because I can’t see a clear vote-winner amongst them, that’s on the Democratic Party who’ve made their choice. They now need to decide what they’re doing going forward

My opinion, FWIW, is that Dems will win but only because of a swing and silent majority rather than exceptional candidates. If Joe Biden is elected President again then he could resign in January, which would give the next incumbent two full terms plus the balance of Joe Biden’s second term, almost three full terms

Joe Biden stands now then resigns immediately if he wins? Can’t see it and it would be a real slap in the face for voters. It would also need agreement about who his VP would be – chosen for their ability to be president and not because they ticked demographic boxes.

I think what most pollsters are missing, as they always do, is the difference between pre election poles and exit poles. Natural dems who are not massively motivated just won’t turn up with Biden – the 2024 version- on the ticket. Or at least not in the numbers needed in the states that matter.

Same on the other side though, neither candidate is going to really be inspiring the people in the middle.  And post MAGA there’s a lot of “middle” that the democrats could be wooing.

They need to take a leaf out of Trump’s playbook and jack Biden up on Adderall and coke to get him through the campaign.

Supreme court has ruled that presidents have immunity from prosecution. End of democracy?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/jul/01/supreme-court-trump-immunity-claim-decision-updates

^^K-rist.

“No one is above the law” Sure.😐

Shit. Unsurprising, given Trump’s appointees, but still shit.

WTF?

Not quite that simple, he has immunity when carrying out official acts. One of the next tasks will be to see which of his many crimes were “official” and which were not

End of democracy?

The US system of politically appointed prosecutors and judiciary has always reeked of shit. It naively relies on politicians of integrity. I’m not sure that ever has been the situation but the US has scrapped the barrel in recent years when choosing it’s president and not unsurprisingly the scrappings turn out to not taste that great.

I’m not sure democracy is dead, but by any standard the US would look like total hypocrites if they ever attempted to promote it in a 3rd party ever again.

Don’t worry though, give it 12 months and Trump will have pardoned himself of everything and anything and will be moving on to a Putin style removal of time limits on presentency  and today’s news will be the merest of sidenotes.

The US system of politically appointed prosecutors and judiciary has always reeked of shit.

Theres a bit of research that has been done by a project called ‘Fix the Court’ recently into ‘gifts’ made to Supreme Court over the last 20 year – the figures tot up to over $4.7m dollars- of, you know, innocent ol’ ‘gifts’.  Before clicking on the link have a guess what proportion of that figure is just gifts to Clarence Thomas.

Then consider that its not a proportion of the gifts to the current court, but all the justices he’s served amongst totalling 18 judges

Also look at the percentage of those gifts he willingly disclosed and how much more is suspected and hasn’t been declared yet

Fix the Court

Don’t worry though, give it 12 months and Trump will have pardoned himself of everything and anything and will be moving on to a Putin style removal of time limits on presentency  and today’s news will be the merest of sidenotes.

I can sadly see this happening (or at least attempted).  The irony of ripping up ‘The Constitution’ whilst at the same time arguing about such things as the right to bear arms as it is written in ‘The Constitution’.

Certainly Biden should withdraw. I would say a great deal of voters in the US do not want trump representing them on the world stage, but at the same time arent too happy about voting for a president who possibly has dementia.

A new dem’ candidate would secure more votes

The definition of an Official act

seems to be anything done in his capacity as president, which leaves any president an insane amount of leeway, Reps too dem to see that this could be abused terribly by a future Dem president to their detriment

official act
(3) the term “official act” means any decision or action on any question, matter, cause, suit, proceeding or controversy, which may at any time be pending, or which may by law be brought before any public official, in such official’s official capacity, or in such official’s place of trust or profit;

https://www.law.cornell.edu/definitions/uscode.php?width=840&height=800&iframe=true&def_id=18-USC-1485124061-1031326974&term_occur=999&term_src=

This could be the best gift that Biden (assuming he runs)  could have hoped for

certainly galvanised the democratic base

If Biden wins he can now take a hit out on Trump and the right wing SCOTUS appointees.

All official like, too.

Well, that is certainly rather shocking to read. Although sadly not surprising

I’m not sure in all the cheering, whether the GOP might have overlooked the galvanizing effect it will have on their opponents

If there’s one thing I’m sure of, it’ll come back and bite their arses.

If there’s one thing I’m sure of, it’ll come back and bite their arses.

Yup President Harrises  MAGA emergency internment act of 2026, will come as quite the shock

If Biden wins he can now take a hit out on Trump and the right wing SCOTUS appointees.

If he wins? He can just send the Seals round tonight (not legal advice).

If there’s one thing I’m sure of, it’ll come back and bite their arses.

One of the other major cases heard was a reversal of a decision the republicans had loved at the time since it put power into the hands of the federal agencies which were under their control. They changed their mind when that slowly got undone and now moved it into the courts which they control.

found out today that Gavin Newsom was married to Kimberley guilfoyle, crazed former DA and fiancee of Trump Junior and now head of RNC

this article is fantastic insight on the bind the Dem’s find themselves in:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/biden-and-harris-absurd-case-for-post-debate-complacency.html

So sleepy Joe could have a dream that navy seals could gut trumpy fish and nobody cares if it becomes reality.

cool

And take out the maga Supreme Court judges too 🤷‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️ they aren’t very bright are they 🤯?

finishthat
Free Member
So sleepy Joe could have a dream that navy seals could gut trumpy fish and nobody cares if it becomes reality.

cool

As long as it’s an official presidential dream it’s all good. 😉

I’m not sure if it hasn’t wiped the debate slate clean for Biden

Massive own goal long term.

It’s another step away from democracy, and Biden must put the corruption of the Supreme Court front and centre of his campaign. Can you imagine what Trump will do with unrestricted power in a second term?

It is rather ironic that the typical republican voter is one who wants less government power over their lives, yet they’re likely voting in a president and party that’s going to do their utmost to give themselves even more unchallenged power over them

They scream themselves hoarse about liberty when all along they wanted a king.

Ironies upon ironies.

Can anyone explain what the line is right now between what the president can do without question and what needs to go to Congress or the senate. I’m aware of the “Executive Orders” but who decides what they can be? Is that the supreme courts responsibility?

They scream themselves hoarse about liberty when all along they wanted a king.

Yes, I would imagine there’s some fairly furious re-writing of Independence Day speeches going on…… if the Dem’s can’t leverage this, now, then there really is no hope for them.

Didn’t take long!

An unsurprising and concerning indication of things to come.

Indeed.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c035zqe7lgro    The US has a King

I don’t understand perhaps naively,  how party politics can play a part in the Supreme Court. Surely there is the law, not a Conservative or Liberal interpretation of it? Trump appointing judges seems to be helping him…

FB this morning full of memes of Biden on the phone to Seal Team 6 now he’s got the all clear….

If the law is vague, or general, and open to interpretation, then people will have a view on it. That will depend on ther own beliefs, experience and/or morals (see Roe vs. Wade and 2nd amendment).

If you make a law specific, then people will find a way around it, if it is more general, it _will_ be open to interpretation.

Just cos el trumpy is king doesn’t mean the poor chumps enacting his dodgy proclamations will be immune too

Just cos el trumpy is king doesn’t mean the poor chumps enacting his dodgy proclamations will be immune too

There will be pardons flying left, right and centre if Trump gets back in. The bloke will pardon himself as soon as he gets the chance. Even the old Tiger King will get one this time around.

I don’t understand perhaps naively,  how party politics can play a part in the Supreme Court. Surely there is the law, not a Conservative or Liberal interpretation of it? Trump appointing judges seems to be helping him…

remember that next time judges or lawyers question the ability of government to influence their decisions!  The US system of politically appointed judges makes this sort of stuff inevitable.  (That said I’m not sure the ruling says what a lot of people think it does – but once you let politics into court rooms the assumption is, it is playing a part and so must be doing what the media says these polar opposites expect).