I think people outside the USA are only just catching onto this because all our news just focuses on Trump being bad but not what a problem Biden’s age is.

This is the problem with politics. Nobody is focussed on Trump lying repeatedly, rather Biden’s apparent frailty.

CNN has fact-checked the debate, Biden managed 9-ish false statements, Trump 30-ish https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/27/politics/fact-checking-the-cnn-presidential-debate/index.html

For clarity, I don’t think that CNN should have live-fact-checked, that was for the candidates to deal with, but neither did that very well

Phillips P. O’Brien thinks that “If Biden cant win, it would be better to replace him asap, so that the Convention in August can nominate someone else.”, but he would need to stand down first  https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/not-knowing-your-candidates-until

It will only happen now if Biden either by himself, or through the persuasion of others, comes to believe that he does not represent the best chance to beat Trump. He will get the nomination if he stays in—as delegates are pledged to support him. However, all it would take is for him to step back and release his delegates—and the convention would be free to choose someone else.

https://electionbettingodds.com/President2024.html#chart

Betting odds so far this year

The last 24 hours

Issue with betting is that (after the initial odds) does movement not largely depend on the amount of money staked?

It blows my mind that the only option for anyone remotely sane voter on either side of the election is to vote for “their” candidate and hope they die of old age so someone competent can take over.

@sobriety Yes, it’s a bit grim, isn’t it?

Issue with betting is that (after the initial odds) does movement not largely depend on the amount of money staked?

Yes, but that’s why it’s such a useful indicator.  Not so much of intention on how people are going to vote, but how people think people are going to vote.  It’s a Wisdom of Crowds thing.

It’s also good because people have a financial incentive so you know they have at least thought about it a bit.

It’s not the be all and end all but in this case it shows that people think the debate went so badly that they say Biden’s chances of winning went from 38% (which wasn’t great to begin with) to 22% (which is **** terrible).

By the way, since fivethirtyeight.com is no more I can definitely recommend finding Nate Silver’s email newsletter for decent analysis of the election data.

He’s been saying Biden should step aside for months based on the numbers.

The trouble with debating Trump, is, he’s undebatable.

I find it weird and astonishing how poor the candidates the Democrats put up are.  Hilary Clinton was a poor candidate and Biden this time round is for sure.  Why?

sobriety
Free Member
It blows my mind that the only option for anyone remotely sane voter on either side of the election is to vote for “their” candidate and hope they die of old age so someone competent can take over.

I’m not disagreeing with you.

However, I trust that Biden has surrounded himself with pretty competent advisers to, erm, compensate for his…issues.

Trump though, we know who he will surround himself with… and it’s fair to say they wont be around him for their competence but instead for their total unquestioning loyalty. The ultimate Yes Men environment. Dangerous.

This is the problem with politics. Nobody is focussed on Trump lying repeatedly, rather Biden’s apparent frailty.

There’s no need to qualify that with “apparent”.  ‘Blatant’ would be a more apt qualifier.

However, I trust that Biden has surrounded himself with pretty competent advisers to, erm, compensate for his…issues.

Trump though, we know who he will surround himself with… and it’s fair to say they wont be around him for their competence but instead for their total unquestioning loyalty. The ultimate Yes Men environment. Dangerous.

Pretty much, the trouble is it paralyses government because no one want’s to get behind Biden.  If you’re a moderate republican there’s zero political capital  to be gained in lending any cross-party support to a figurehead incapable of inspiring your electorate.

The lack of any decent moderate republicans is IMO a reflection on Biden.

I definitely feel “we’re all doomed” after watching last night’s performance.

Watching Biden at the stand and watching him move I can’t help think there is something worse going on than simply old age. The only people I have met who move and communicate like that have a degenerative ailment of one sort or another.

There’s only 3 years between them.

Trump and Biden were asked about their ages. They argued about golf

I find it weird and astonishing how poor the candidates the Democrats put up are.  Hilary Clinton was a poor candidate and Biden this time round is for sure.  Why?

It’s the inevitable result of the entire political machine being in the pockets of big business. The republicans have never made any secret of who they represent, but the democrats have made the fatal mistake of thinking they also need to represent the corporate establishment in order to win power. The result is a hollowed out party which represents no one but their own narrow self-interest. The UK is headed the same way, we’re just some way behind as the traditional “left wing” party here still has enough people in it who will resist a complete takeover by corporate interests. Those who support Starmer’s purge of leftwingers and progressives should take note.

I know you have to have a certain amount of money and more support you in British politics to rise to the “top”.

But you have to be insanely minted AND connected in the US.

Interesting discussion on all this on Bluesky – looks very much like there’s no mechanism for Biden stepping down, and even if he can/does, the choice is Harris or Harris.

Interesting discussion on all this on Bluesky – looks very much like there’s no mechanism for Biden stepping down, and even if he can/does, the choice is Harris or Harris.

Huh, how does that work?  He can step down as a candidate without stepping down as president.

If he steps down as a candidate then it means a contested convention in which case it’s anyone’s game.

I was going to comment last night as I stayed up to watch the debate but I saw enough within 20 mins to realise we’ll see a trump presidency along with his cronies in high office.

`So much for democracy in the land of the free (and stupid)

Ah look on the bright side if Trump gets in we’ve (the world) just got to suffer him for 4 years then that’s it, no more Trump running things.

Biden looks worse than my (demented 93-year-old) father in law did last time I saw him, and he died a couple of weeks later.

The thing now is that Biden could be seen as an amazing president if he actually gets out of the way for someone more capable.

Sad reality is that I don’t think he has the ability to accept or see that

By the same measure though – it’s hard to make clips of Trump when he isn’t incoherent.

Unfortunately there are a lot of people out there who believe Trump is quick, witty, and charismatic. Even some of his haters admit to this. Whereas to many, Biden’s outward image is of a man in cognitive decline, and this has been the narrative since long before it was as bad as it is now…

He just cemented that image.

It reinforces existing biases. Whether it is right or wrong is beside the point. I think we all know by now that elections aren’t won on what is right or wrong. They’re won on manipulating people’s biases.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/19/trump-nra-convention-dallas

Be interesting to see if he tries changing the constitution when he (almost inevitably) gets in again. Putin egging him on, no doubt.

Ah look on the bright side if Trump gets in we’ve (the world) just got to suffer him for 4 years then that’s it, no more Trump running things

Beaten to it, but constitutions can be amended and his friends have form to offer advice.

I really can’t grasp why the democrats keep fielding candidates that are next-to unelectable (OK, Biden by the skin of his teeth last time): Hilary and then Joe – it’s like they’re trying to give Trump a fair chance.  They need to get Biden out, pronto (though what RbiT) suggests above is a bit concerning

Ah look on the bright side if Trump gets in we’ve (the world) just got to suffer him for 4 years then that’s it, no more Trump running things.

After the contempt he’s shown for democracy, the constitution and the law by trying to overturn election results, support insurrection etc. I wouldn’t be at at all surprised if he apes his crush in the Kremlin and declares himself prez for life 😪

Well at least thanks to Alex Garland we know how it ends.

Nobody wants to have the “Dad, maybe it’s time to give up your driving licence” conversation

The trouble with debating Trump, is, he’s undebatable.

Don’t know about that, I’ve heard people describe him as a master debater.

prez for life

Given his age and the rumours about his health that might not be all that long.

They need to get Biden out, pronto

It’s not just last nights debate. Just watching the footage on the news of his campaign rally today, he looks like he’s just wandered out of the Autumn Meadows rest home for the terminally bewildered.

It’s unfathomable that a serious political party could be putting him forward as their candidate for the next 4 years of running a global superpower

They’re just gift-wrapping this for Trump

The democrats have shown an absolute lack of leadership over the last decade, first Clinton, then Biden, yes Biden is a nice guy, but he was too old the first time, now he’s showing it even more, you can get away with it as VP, but not as the President. Trump is just a chancer as always, but the reality is the US demographics are in his favour just now, like last time he won, and if he does succeed, he’ll be over 80 when he’s in office as well, i tend to think that there should be a cut off age for politics in the UK, i’m all for working beyond 67, but not in a 24/7 environment where split second judgement is required a lot of the time!

The sad bit for me is that Trump winning might be a good thing for the UK, he’ll be offending the EU and others again, and that only makes the UK more enticing to the EU for strength, with a labour government, who knows.

It’s interesting chatting to work colleague in CA about the debate – thinks it was engineered by democrats who want to swap out Boden as the debate was much earlier than they normally are and at the behest of the democrats- so they can convince Biden to retire and have another candidate just in time for convention.

K unfortunately has not done enough to be convincing candidate  .

A theory I heard was that an early debate would give Biden a chance to turn the polls around (he’s been behind for months) and something give him something to build on going towards the election date.

As a Plan B, it would give them time to hit the emergency button and find a candidate to be confirmed at the convention.

Time to break the **** glass, I reckon.

Some of it’s unfair, of course- Biden’s always been soft and slow spoken, a little bit of a mumbler, and a think-firster (which I think is a lot about the speech impediment). In debates in general, being quick and loud and clear and wrong is better than being slow and quiet and nuanced and right, and much more so in this climate. And as ever there’s a big element that Trump exceeded expectations just by not shitting his pants.

But that doesn’t change anything, that was a terrible night for, uh, absolutely everyone. Remains to be seen what it really means, as ever it’ll confirm lots of beliefs and that’s not necessarily important.

ratherbeintobago
Full Member

Guardian reporting that there are calls for him to stand aside. Problem is ‘for who?’

Exactly this. TBF I don’t think Biden would be standing at all, if there was anything like an heir apparent for him to hand it to. There’s candidates that are popular with democrats but don’t seem to cut through at all even with swing voters. Literally every conversation about Biden standing down ends with “but for who” and then everyone goes, um. Part of the job of a party is to promote excellence and always have a pool of potential. It’s not just who would replace Biden now, even if he wins who will replace him next time, there ought to already be a line forming and it doesn’t feel like there is.

I think Harris was supposed to be the heir- that’s a good way to do it, VP to President, continuity and experience. But whether that was a good idea or not it’s not worked out that way at all and it feels like that was decided long ago.

But literally every conversation about Biden standing down ends with “but for who” and then everyone goes, um.

I think you’ll find a lot of people have been thinking about this for months (or years) and I would be very surprised if several candidates aren’t already set up to run in a shortened Primary.

The problem is not who is going to replace Biden because literally anyone is going to do better than Biden at this point.  The problem is persuading Biden to step aside.

Fair play to him for backing himself, but if he doesn’t step aside now he well go down in history as the man who gifted Trump a second term.

I think Harris was supposed to be the heir- that’s a good way to do it, VP to President, continuity and experience. But whether that was a good idea or not it’s not worked out that way at all and it feels like that was decided long ago.

Draft Michelle Obama into service as Bidens nurse then slide her into the presidential race. (Not serious btw)

Wouldn’t work though there is vast swathes of the population who wouldn’t vote for a woman president, never mind a black woman president – this also rules out Harris as president.

Saw the transport secretary interviewed not long ago – youngish guy and very articulate, including some stuff well outside of transportation

Presumably he’s not filthy rich and, err, he’s called Pete Buttigieg so perhaps needs to be standing against someone who’s not a toddler