Brexit 2020+

Some more thoughts on No Deal…

https://bylinetimes.com/2020/07/23/britain-is-back-on-the-road-to-the-brexit-cliff-edge-is-anyone-even-driving-the-car/

Please feel free to contribute something contradictory about the path we are now on, to avoid that echo chamber feeling, and give us some much needed positive news. Thanks.

Please feel free to contribute something contradictory about the path we are now on, to avoid that echo chamber feeling, and give us some much needed positive news. Thanks.

Listening to Barnier at lunchtime was depressing. Brexies will have me believe that I was either listening to the mother of all negotiating ploys by those sneaky Europeans. Or that I was listening to a deranged senior figure in some federal European cult that is fuming because plucky old Britain has stood up to their bullying. Which is bollocks. On both counts.

I don't think he's particularly angry either. Just cheesed off that he has to go through the motions time after time with the international equivalent of a small child that deliberately shat its pants in a mardy and is now sat in shitty pants demanding to be cleaned up AND then get it's own way.

And much as I love to mock the redneck Americans who luuuuuurve Trump, at least they made the focus of their infant racist/xenophobic tantrum something that could be largely reversed after four years. I mean, who'd be stupid enough to have their childish tantrum expressed via something irreversible?

Johnson will fold in December

he caved at the last minute in the WA negotiations, he will do exactly that again

there will be some small compromises on state aid & fisheries- an independent review every few years? enough that he can sell it to the RW press (wjhere last time they haled is genius at getting the WA reopened & ignored that the changes he made were a humiliation for the UK)

Even without covid it would be the height of economic self-harm to leave without one

Youve seen the panic as Johnson has finaly realised that he's losing SCotland, leaving with No Deal would be a boon to Sturgeon

Johnson will fold in December

How do you get a trade deal ratified over Christmas and in place for the New Year, in accordance with the rules of the EU & WTO... and how and when do businesses and individuals get ready for it?

Johnson will fold in December

he caved at the last minute in the WA negotiations, he will do exactly that again

God knows, I hope so.

Then, hopefully, it will be militant Brexity gammons chasing him down Whitehall in his socks.

Saves the grownups having to make the trip.

Johnson will fold in December

he caved at the last minute in the WA negotiations, he will do exactly that again

there will be some small compromises on state aid & fisheries- an independent review every few years? enough that he can sell it to the RW press (wjhere last time they haled is genius at getting the WA reopened & ignored that the changes he made were a humiliation for the UK)

Even without covid it would be the height of economic self-harm to leave without one

Youve seen the panic as Johnson has finaly realised that he’s losing SCotland, leaving with No Deal would be a boon to Sturgeon

As I said before - I don't think he can survive no deal. In a war games type scenario planning exercise I would suggest his best bet is to do as you say. A last minute deal that he can sell as a great victory. It wont be - it will be shit but slightly less shit than no deal.

What is difficult to gauge is how this goes down with the headbangers in his own party! No deal works better for party unity but the clear and obvious disaster that would ensue would lead to external pressure and it would see him done in. Doing a deal eases external pressure and he can bang on about doing things no-one thought he would (blah blah blah). But the headbangers would go ape shit with almost any compromise - does he just see them off? Do any of them resign over it (if yes how many)?

In a war games type scenario planning exercise

And I'll bet Cum Dommings gets a raging stiffy every time those words are uttered.

How do you get a trade deal ratified over Christmas and in place for the New Year, in accordance with the rules of the EU & WTO… and how and when do businesses and individuals get ready for it?

some sort of staggered transition

a mess, but I think most businesses have long since realised that the government arent there to help them on this

What is difficult to gauge is how this goes down with the headbangers in his own party!

It's what happens when you tell different lies to everyone you need on-side. Eventually someone loses their patience and does you over.

Businesses have had 4 years to prepare for “it”, whatever “it” turns out to be. What more do they want?

Then, hopefully, it will be militant Brexity gammons chasing him down Whitehall in his socks.

Saves the grownups having to make the trip.

nah press will sell it as a victory again

brexiters dont actually care what happens to fishing industry or state aid rules, they just want to be old its all red white & blue, tickety-boo

No deal is Johnson aim. He has o intention of making a deal. No deal allows him to blame the EU

We have a strong currency which we can control

A strong economy which we can control

A strong trade deficit with non-EU countries which makes up over half of our economy which we can build on.

Oh and likely a reasonable deal with the EU

There's my slice of optimism for the echo chamber.

What more do they want?

Businesses in the EEA not to just shut their doors on them at the end of 2020, with a message saying... "come back when we all know how this is going to work".

Oh and likely a reasonable deal with the EU

Sweet. Flesh that out for us, please. Does it look anything like any of the options in the (Conservative) government document detailing possible replacement deals from before the referendum that I posted... or anything like the new deal Vote Leave were proposing we'd get back in 2016, they one they said we'd get agreed before starting the process of leaving the EU? What will it cover? What does "reasonable" mean... anything at all? Why are there Conservative MPs singing the praises of operating on WTO rules again... are they bluffing?

Businesses have had 4 years to prepare for “it”, whatever “it” turns out to be. What more do they want?

Not sure if serious...?

As I said before – I don’t think he can survive no deal. In a war games type scenario planning exercise I would suggest his best bet is to do as you say. A last minute deal that he can sell as a great victory. It wont be – it will be shit but slightly less shit than no deal.

I think its the reason he has to do it the very last minute, so none can query its shitness and it buys him a little more time.

What did the Govester say, middle of 2021 till we can implement our border checks and Liz's letter on the trade negotiations front, fabulous.

I think they’ll be a thin, time limited, deal of some kind in December as well… and many years of UK businesses not really knowing what is just around the next corner.

@fadda of course I wasn’t being serious...

Businesses have had 4 years to prepare for “it”, whatever “it” turns out to be. What more do they want?

Not sure if serious…?

It's a fair assessment thou, once your realise the people running the country are actually insane you make preparations to safeguard your livelihood 🙂

Yet the other half the economy will carry on as normal trading with non-EU states as normal.

We will have some sort of deal with the EU and I will admit that TJ told me so if we don't.

So long and thanks for all the fish.

half the economy will carry on as normal

It won’t be nearly that bad, surely?

Anyway… “What are you moaning about man, you’ve always got the other leg! Now hold still so I can get sawing…”

What did the Govester say, middle of 2021 till we can implement our border checks and Liz’s letter on the trade negotiations front, fabulous.

Yeah its been confirmed that weve given up all pretence of controlling our borders until then

Yet the other half the economy will carry on as normal trading with non-EU states as normal.

just half our exporters shafted, result!

No, as I said we will have a deal on the EU side.

And what does that deal look like? If it doesn’t mean new restrictions and barriers to trade in Jan compared to Dec I’ll eat my chocolate hat. If it means a better deal than the one we’ve voluntarily given up, as was promised, I’ll start thanking you and others who voted for it.

Half? Really? What’s the actual ratio of EU/covered by an EU Trade Deal to non EU trade?

even with a deal EU trading business will have to pay an extra £13bn for the extra red-tape according to Govey

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/post-brexit-border-checks-to-cost-businesses-13-billion-3r5w8hhxk

massive win!

Anyway… “What are you moaning about man, you’ve always got the other leg! Now hold still so I can get sawing…”

Now, about that arse-kicking competition....

Yet the other half the economy will carry on as normal trading with non-EU states as normal.

Well, the small fraction that isn't either with the EU or covered by an EU trade agreement that we won't have access to anymore. Apart from that all tickety-boo.

I speak as the brother and son of two small business owners who presently conduct global transactions who are currently terrified because they understand how it works. The people who don't (like you) who blithely demonstrate their ignorance by saying and believing horseshit like that are the reason why both are likely to cease trading unless we get a deal (and tarif-free access to other nations). Cease trading not because they aren't able to have product but because the obstacles to trade will be beyond that of a small business. Death through a thousand cuts with red tape.

But hey, they get blue passports and regained the sovereignty that was never lost. That must be worth something.

I forgot who said it but thought S sums up brexit: The undefined being negotiated by the unprepared in order to get the unspecified for the uninformed.

Doomaniac- UK EU trade accounts for 47% of global trade with a trade deficit of £-73Billion

Shakelton - Here was me thinking that deregulation would actually help SMEs?

Do decisions made in Brussels ever have a negative impact on farmers in the UK and Ireland?

Are farmers going to chuck away hard fought improvements in quality just because the market share for beef has changed from predominately EU to Japan?

Many people on here are quite happy to pay import taxes for fancy goods from Non-EU, many threads about what coffee what wine what this and that.

dougiedogg

You really need to read up a lot more and with an open mind.

There can be no deal without JOhnson capitulating on things that the Brexiteers will not stand. NO deal is inevitable.

On farmers. UK farmers will have a choice - keep standards high and thus be able to continue to export into the EU - in which case they will be undercut in the UK market by US imports with much lower standards or cut standards to meet US to compete on cost and be frozen out of the EU market

financial institutions will not be able to operate in the EU market from London - which is why many of them are moving their HQs and much of their workforce into the EU

Exports to the rest of the world guess what - this is done mainly using EU FTAs - which we will no longer have - so we will lose that as well

Yet the other half the economy will carry on as normal trading with non-EU states as normal.

No, it won't. Because our "normal trading with non-EU states" is facilitated via the agreements in place between those non-EU states and the EU. Not between those states and the UK, we have no such agreements. That's all going to disappear.

Aren't you listening to anything we're telling you? We become "other" overnight.

According to the EU figures we contribute a net £7.8 billion to the EU and the UK figures suggest £11 billion. That is a tariff folks, it is a net contribution for access to the single market.

Now someone has said we will be out £13 billion for tariffs which leaves a loss of £2 Billion.

Am I to be told that this isn't a cost we can recoup by changing our trade portfolio to a more R.O.W weighed one?

with a trade deficit of £-73Billion

In a massive self-pwn this is set to expand massively as we've just whacked a load of extra red tape on our exports but government have said they'll waive checks on imports for the first year until our world beating new customs system is in place

The madness of brexit for ya !

£7.8 billion

Which is roughly the additional admin cost just for customs forms for businesses, before we even start to look at all the other costs of not being in the Single Market and Customs Union… like all those extra civil servants you seemed to be pleased we’d need because of all the extra bureaucracy.

TJ- Greenland, Mexico, South Africa, Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, Chile and Ukraine? Those FTAs?

Dougiedogg - what do you actually do for a living?
Any suggestions how we 'change our trade portfolio to a more ROW weighted one'. That is very easy to type but a bit more difficult in practice...

Those FTAs?

You’ve added up the trade for those, yes? What does it come to?

Now someone has said we will be out £13 billion for tariffs which leaves a loss of £2 Billion.

£13bn was for customs checks ALONE

You've got the £bns we've already spent on Brexit to recoup,
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-cost/britains-government-spent-4-4-billion-pounds-on-brexit-planning-idUKKBN20T007

+ things like the Farage Garage down in Kent,ERASMUS, Horizon 2020 (that's £1bn a year), replacement for Galileo (already spent £1/2bn on that) EURATOM, replicating work of EMA, border enforcement, new infrastructure for checks in NI,DEFRA replicating CAP roles, EBA loans....

And trade deals dont do a massive amount Johnson's Government
Reckoned a USA trade deal would increase GDP by 0.16% OVER 15 YEARS!

and Truss now saying she doesn't even think we can get that

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51706802

Shakelton – Here was me thinking that deregulation would actually help SMEs

In general, the reason we have regulation is to protect employees and consumers from badly designed, potentially dangerous products. The same regulations allow you to whistle-blow for dodgy practices at work, and allow the HSE to stop you losing limbs, eyes, or catching cancer.

They are not there to deliberately stifle production or innovation unless you consider paying your workers below minimum wage and providing a safe working environment detrimental to your business.

I notice that Dyson is using Covid-19 as an excuse to ditch UK employees in advance of Brexit.

Here was me thinking that deregulation would actually help SMEs

But we aren't talking about deregulation, we are talking about trade. Most EU regulations are sensible and easy to comply with and are accepted globally as a sign of safety and quality so are sensible to comply with as they open you trade options. Deregulation is generally acknowleged to limit higher value export trade. Most export business will have to continue to comply with EU or equivalent standards but UK will have even less (read none) say in their setting.

Before you answer just stop, please go and read some informed commentators on global trade, have a think and then comment. Believing your opinion, based on poorly understood superficial observation, to be equivalent to fact is what caused this shitshow. Gets some facts on your side, understand the implications and then engage.

Sorry if that sounds patronising but I'm getting tired of dealing with people who gladly act in ignorance or out of prejudice.

I'm basing my opinion as that is all it is on the assumption that we will get a deal.

You guys are basing yours on the assumption that there will be no deal.

Am I to be told that this isn’t a cost we can recoup

So, OK, two things here:

1) this sounds like a big number, but in economic terms it's buttons.

2) I said earlier on this thread that in my experience with conversations with leavers one of three things always happens when they're proven wrong: They don't reply and change the subject; they get angry and offensive; or they go quiet for a while before coming back with the same argument.

And you my little doggy friend very much fall into the first category. This is not having a discussion, this is you regurgitating ill-informed non sequitur after non sequitur. Which is a waste of both our time.

I’m basing my opinion as that is all it is on the assumption that we will get a deal.

You’re basing your opinion on a deal when you have absolutely no idea what the implications of that deal may be?
Incredible.

I’m basing my opinion as that is all it is on the assumption that we will get a deal.

You guys are basing yours on the assumption that there will be no deal.

Because at this moment in time "no deal" is what happens unless something changes between now and next year, it's the default action. And yes it might well change and we all desperately hope you're right. But betting the farm on it is up there with "thoughts and prayers" right now and patting yourself on the back for your cheery optimism doesn't change shit. Hope for the best, expect the worst.

What do you mean by "a deal" exactly anyway? There are a thousand agreements to potentially consider, there's no such thing as "a" deal. Do you mean a trade deal? Fine. What about ERASMUS? Open Skies? Galileo?

I’m basing my opinion as that is all it is on the assumption that we will get a deal.

Ok....I'll bite and reply seeing as others appear to have the patience of the reincarnated baby jesus

If (and at our current level of negotiations i seriously doubt we will) we manage to scrape a deal together it will be vastly inferior to our current deal, not because the EU wish to punish us but being a block of 27 countries they have a duty to protect their own interests and members, they have zero obligation to furnish us with a "world beating trade deal" (tm-gove).

Whatever deal we get WILL be inferior to our current arrangement

Oh, and,

You never answered my question (on the back of yours) as to how your industry certifies that your products are safe and legitimate for international export. Care to have a crack at that?

What makes you think we will get a deal?

Given that to get a deal ( unless johnson capitulates completely) Johnsons red lines are incompatible with EU law and treaties.

If Johnson does capitulate he will last about 5 mins and the deal will be repudiated

Finally if we go WTO rules only ie no deal we are not allowed under those rules to treat any nation more favourably than the rest. thus if we allow EU imports in without tariffs we have to allow imports from everywhere without tariffs - hello american fake cheese

Dougie says he's in pharma?, is that "pharma" as in £6 per pill, two for £10 and a wrap of speed type pharma?

If it is he’s using far too much of his inventory for personal use.