[Closed] WW3

I believe Mrs May has a bomb capable of hitting the US.
She's in Italy at the moment if he wants to carpet bomb her.

(and probably why NK hasn't been flattened already)

From a NK perspective, they have been flattened once already, and within living memory. Rightly or wrongly the US dropped more bombs (tonnage) on NK then it did on Germany, once it had destroyed all the military targets it went after infrastructure, roads, harbours, hospitals govt buildings and so on. It has been estimated that 1 in 5 NK citizens (not just soldiers, but mostly civilians) was killed, there's hardly a family that hasn't had some-one die in the war through US bombing.

Given that the war (officially at least) isn't over, one can start to see why they might want to have an effect deterrent to further US aggression. From the mad isolationist view they have, it makes "perfect" sense.

Personally I don't think you can blame any country for wanting a nuclear deterrent whilst other countries have one.

The the biggest problem I see (and probably why NK hasn't been flattened already) is that other countries will end up in the crossfire.

May I remind you, NATO treaty, Article 5

FWIW, NATOs article 5 (the Casus foederis) only covers Europe and North America, not the american islands in the pacific.

[I completely stole this comment from Reddit but it seems to be true, Guam is not covered by article 5]

Assuming anyone in NK is daft enough to do this, this has the smell of an archduke Ferdinand thing. NK hits Guam, USA hits NK, China commits troops into NK (even in a defensive way), Nato (attack on North America or Europe notwithstanding) ends up doing the same in SK.

So while this nonsense is going on, what about the important stuff, like what's trump up to while this smokescreen is up?

People really believe NK is a threat? Able to nuke the US.

WMDs anyone?

WMDs anyone?

Good news, apparently God is on Trump's side:

[i]"In the case of North Korea, God has given Trump authority to take out Kim Jong Un. I'm heartened to see that our president ? contrary to what we've seen with past administrations who have taken, at best, a sheepish stance toward dictators and oppressors ? will not tolerate any threat against the American people."[/i]

-- http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/evangelical-adviser-trump-nuke-north-korea_us_598a62b3e4b0449ed5066531

johndoh - Member
WMDs anyone?

Except everyone has seen the missile tests the NK have been performing as opposed to having a hunch that something is going on as was the case in Iraq.

When was the ICBM nuke test?

Quite hilarious that Nk is now being taken at it's word.

Except everyone has seen the missile tests the NK have been performing

Exactly, NYE in Times Square looks to be a bigger threat to the US in terms of fire power.

But if some bloke is making up that they have small warheads ready and prepped, then hey ho, in they go.

When was the ICBM nuke test?

johndoh - Member
When was the ICBM nuke test?

Not this specifically but if they launch any kind of attack on Guam (and they have been firing missiles all over so NATO knows they have the capability to do as they have threatened) places peace in a dangerous position.

Since we are taking NK at it's word. Could you link me up with Kim Jong Un's threat of a pre-emptive strike?

Trump has been talking about a pre-emptive strike against North Korea for at least 18 years and now he's finally in a position to do it.

Since we are taking NK at it's word. Could you link me up with Kim Jong Un's threat of a pre-emptive strike?

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Super+mighty+pre-emptive+strike

😆

In the same way that Iraq was an attempt by US Corps like Halliburton and KBR to get their hands on the oil / clean-up fees, is this an attempt by Trump to lay waste to NK with a view to building multiple golf-resorts and casinos, putting to work all those dispossessed workers in the name of humanitarian aid?

Na some of his mates are selling short on far eastern markets this week, and he's in on a 20% cut of the take.

Is chewkw aware that those films he's been watching are not documentaries? Zombies FFS?

[url= http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/vain-petty-nutjob-finally-meets-his-equal-20170809133733 ]Again Daily Mash has it....[/url]

Maybe ww3 would be more marketable if they did what Microsoft did with the XBOX and call it World War 360 or something similar.

A nuclear armed North Korea could (and IMO would) cause other nations in that area to become nuclear capable - It would be a nationalist’s wet dream, be it Vietnam, South Korea, Japan or whoever.

Singly, a nuclear armed NK might not cause the region to "go nuclear". However, consider the territorial "claims" by China of most of the southern sea - if you have no big stick, you can forget getting the Chinese to negotiation with good intent. There is also the occupation of Tibet, and the ongoing boarder dispute with India - all "good" reasons for countries to become nuclear capable.

Once nuclear weapons [s]profiterole [/s]proliferate, consider what even limited, regional use would do to China - you can inflict enough destruction on mainland China to cripple it for decades. If this occurred, the US and the west suddenly have the "biggest" manufacturing and financial challenger taken from the field.

I just doesn’t seem possible that China views a nuclear NK as great for S&G cos they cause the US to burn dollars. That's an incredibly short term view and the Communist party of China appear to think in dynastical terms, not just until the next elections are due.

I recon the US and China have mostly wanted the same thing - a demilitarised NK with a healthy economy. The realisation of the NK nuclear capability has just drawn a line under the US's incapability to negotiate from an equals point a view and the failure of Chinas "wait and do nothing 'cos it'll probably be alright" policy.

I recon the Chinese are at the point that they know a shooting war is the only long term way to calm the neighbourhood. They and the US have agreed to decapitate NK - the military, the leader and the party.
The US will not stop shooting until this is done ("mistake" of Iraq war 1), so China will be keen that the axe falls and falls quickly. They will send in lots of fast moving, very heavily armed "peacekeepers", in effect stabbing the NK leadership in the back.

It has been pointed out that the US inflicted massive damage to NK (the multilateral nature of the UN forces seems to have been overlooked). Certainly the regime in NK will use the memory of the events to “motivate” the people. However, people are people and the NK are not “dumb”. They also know the UN forces were devastating in their capability and the Chinese “saved” the day. Some will figure that if they lose, then all their oppressors will be fair game for “removal”.

IHMO, there’s no side with an advantage and there is no advantage left to be gained by any side. In terms of statehood, NK has already “lost”. Where other regional countries have rebuilt and prospered, they KNOW they have royally f00k39 up and have played themselves into check. However, moving to “checkmate” will cost the other players dearly.

BaronVonP7

IHMO, there’s no side with an advantage and there is no advantage left to be gained by any side. In terms of statehood, NK has already “lost”. Where other regional countries have rebuilt and prospered, they KNOW they have royally f00k39 up and have played themselves into check. However, moving to “checkmate” will cost the other players dearly.

Yeah, that's all you needed to post. It's effectively a stalemate. The only realistic option is that China and Russia can gradually effect regime change over decades. Even the least worst military option is still terrifying.

Granted I'm no communications expert but isn't there a way of dropping millions of smartphones on South Korean or Chinese networks into the country so that people can access the web and see the world for themselves and undermine state propaganda?

slowoldman - Member
Is chewkw aware that those films he's been watching are not documentaries? Zombies FFS?

China has forgotten that when it comes to a ground war, the only other country that can stand up to them is India (another nuke power nation). See all of them will cancel each other out ... 😛

[url= http://newsthump.com/2016/12/23/childproof-lock-added-to-white-house-nuclear-launch-button/ ]Armageddon averted[/url]

so that people can access the web and see the world for themselves and undermine state propaganda?

Up until relatively recently Dandong,(stop giggling at the back) the largest border town on the NK/China border did a reasonably prosperous underground trade in black market goods into North Korea, smart phones, DVDs, chocolate biscuits...The NK state is probably leakier than most in the west think it is.

Assuming anyone in NK is daft enough to do this, this has the smell of an archduke Ferdinand thing. NK hits Guam, USA hits NK, China commits troops into NK (even in a defensive way), Nato [b]takes north America. Job done[/b]

I'm surprised that there's little discussion as to why North Korea is rattling it's nuclear sabre.

For starters, the regime there concerned that other formerly rogue nations who've caved into sanctions have been through a period of bloody regime change - look at Iraq and Libya for example. A nuclear weapon is a bargaining chip against that happening. Of course, such security is expensive and North Korea's GDP is a staggering forty times smaller than that of South Korea. There will have been enormous economic sacrifices made to pay for a nuclear programme.

Then there's the leadership of North Korea itself, with inherent dynastic in-fighting and the potential threat of the military staging a coup and deposing Kim Jong Un and the loyal members of his family. The military runs it's own factories, farms and industries, it's influence is everywhere in North Korea.

North Korea is desperate for foreign income, it's trying to force the US to acknowledge legitimacy of the state and to access foreign markets. Meanwhile, the US has few realistic options to force North Korea to disarm. Airstrikes would be ill advised, the North Korean military has had more than sixty years to dig in and fortify itself, the siege mentality means that North Korea possesses an advanced anti-aircraft missile system, including around 10,000 man portable anti-aircraft missile launchers. An invasion would be extremely difficult, there is evidence to suggest North Korea has an active chemical weapons programme.

In reality, Trump has very few options open to him. Economic sanctions will eventually bite, provided that China can be wooed by the west to close the leaky border but human cost would be enormous.

DezB - Member

The language Trump uses is pretty bizarre, it's the kind of phrasing you expect to come from Kim Jong-un not the other way around

With that look on his face "I'm so **** impressive".

Never a song so fitting

Spot on DezB

Though this is probably closer 😉

 

I purposely chose one that wouldn't get removed cos of the displayed title 😉

North Korea is desperate for foreign income, it's trying to force the US to acknowledge legitimacy of the state and to access foreign markets.

What do we think about then? NK Missle hits Guam (nuclear, explosive or dummy) and it's all over - Trump fires on Pyongyang and we all hold our breath?

North Korea say they are aiming at "the waters 30 to 40km away from Guam".
They even gave the rough flight path, distance and time:

[i]"The Hwasong-12 rockets to be launched by the KPA [Korean People’s Army] will cross the sky above Shimani, Hiroshima and Koichi prefectures of Japan.. They will fly for 3,356.7 km for 1,065 seconds and hit the waters 30 to 40km away from Guam."
[/i]
Messing that up and hitting Guam would be a pretty massive mistake.

As would Trump firing on Pyongyang for detonating missiles 30km away from US territory.

North Korea say they are aiming at "the waters 30 to 40km away from Guam".
They even gave the rough flight path, distance and time:

"The Hwasong-12 rockets to be launched by the KPA [Korean People’s Army] will cross the sky above Shimani, Hiroshima and Koichi prefectures of Japan.. They will fly for 3,356.7 km for 1,065 seconds and hit the waters 30 to 40km away from Guam."

Messing that up and hitting Guam would be a pretty massive mistake.

As would Trump firing on Pyongyang for detonating missiles 30km away from US territory.

[quote=GrahamS ]North Korea say they are aiming at "the waters 30 to 40km away from Guam".
They even gave the rough flight path, distance and time:
"The Hwasong-12 rockets to be launched by the KPA [Korean People’s Army] will cross the sky above Shimani, Hiroshima and Koichi prefectures of Japan.. They will fly for 3,356.7 km for 1,065 seconds and hit the waters 30 to 40km away from Guam."

Messing that up and hitting Guam would be a pretty massive mistake.
As would Trump firing on Pyongyang for detonating missiles 30km away from US territory.

in theory in international waters (12Nm/22km territorial waters limit) although the US claims a (24Nm/44km) contiguous zone.

Best thing that could happen is the nk dons shoot off their super scuds and some American super missile buster thing spots them and mullers them on the way and they sink into the sea. Nk look like dicks and the world is a safer place (for a while)...

...and chooses to go about it in a strange way.

Not really. You get to the top table by being offensively powerful.

Not really. You get to the top table by being offensively powerful

ninfan - Member
Ah, lefties predicting imminent nuclear war because they're not happy with the choice of US president.

It's just all so very 1980's isn't it?

and 1970's

and 1960's

and 1950''s

I suppose if they just keep predicting it, one day it might come true, eh?

Trump: US 'Locked and Loaded' in his latest tweet
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40901746

All you moaners whining on about impending nuclear doom just need to accept it's coming, get behind it and make a success of it.

there have been any number of US presidents who have seen out their terms without 'lefties' predicting nukiler war*

Go on then.... in which of these years were lefties not predicting nuclear war?

[img] [/img]

All you moaners whining on about impending nuclear doom just need to accept it's coming, get behind it and make a success of it.

🙂

Donald goes in against a Sicilian when Death is on the line.

Inconceivable.

I love how not wanting to die in a nuclear armageddon is a "left wing" thing.

Presumably right wingers are all for it? (We know chewkw is, but I kinda assumed he was an.. erm.. 'outlier') 😆

Please excuse me for not reading through the past posts - but have the usual suspects blamed this potential negative world event on Brexit yet?

did the USSR count as lefties?

Just out of curiosity, is there a system other than impeachment in place for removing a President who's incompetence is risking an unwanted apocalypse.? I mean impeachment and removal from office can take months whereas the way he is blustering they might need to move quicker than that..

His moronic tweets keep coming and almost directly contradicting what the Secretaries of State and Defense have just said.. Does he even talk to his own staff or is he just a completely loose cannon.? In which case, surely there has to be some point where Congress/Senate/Pentagon are able to tell him no and take the 'football' off him.?

Assassination ?

spekkie - Member
Assassination ?

😆 I'm laughing but is it really beyond the bounds of possibility that he is forcibly removed from office.? I mean he is ontrack to put Bush's ill advised Iraq adventure and Obama's inability to get the US military out of the MIddle East literaly in the Nuclear shade..

Just out of curiosity, is there a system other than impeachment in place for removing a President who's incompetence is risking an unwanted apocalypse.? I mean impeachment and removal from office can take months whereas the way he is blustering they might need to move quicker than that..

Amendment 25 of the US constitution permits him to be removed.

[i]Section 4. Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.[/i]

Edit: But really, President Pence? uh-oh...

Just out of curiosity, is there a system other than impeachment in place for removing a President who's incompetence is risking an unwanted apocalypse.?

I presume he's already on it.

So good news then, China has had its quiet word with North Korea and Kim Jong-un has decided to hold off on "the enveloping fire at Guam" plan.

Meanwhile South Korea have likewise told the US to back down, he ain't wurf it bruv.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40931775

So... a win for Trump then? 😉

...escalating? as Japan now faces an 'unprecedented threat' and a UN council meeting has been called after this mornings shot across the bows for the people of Japan:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41078187

Why are we not sophisticated enough to take-out their substations or comms from the sites where they are developing / deploying their kit from? Render them unusable?

Why are we not sophisticated enough to take-out their substations or comms from the sites where they are developing / deploying their kit from? Render them unusable?

Go on then.... in which of these years were lefties not predicting nuclear war?

So experts such as Atomic Scientists - are now lefties if their reasoned and rational expert opinion disagrees with your opinion Ninfan?

You're a class act mate.

they have a huge amount of ordnance pointed at Soul

[img] [/img]

Lesson learnt, don't declare yourself a pacifist nation cuase all that's going to happen is you get picked on, or in this case have missiles fired over your head.

Chinas laughing all the way to the bank, no ones going to do anything about NK and some of their local rivals, SK and japan (plus the US), will be spending fortunes on trying to get their anti-ICBM tech to work and still look politically weak in the region every time a missile goes off.

all that's going to happen is you get picked on

they aren't exactly defenceless.

7th v 23rd. It would be like mayweather v mcgregor! 😆

https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.asp

they have a huge amount of ordnance pointed at Soul

[img] [/img]

😆

what would be the environmental effects of nuking every square inch of the NK border with stealthier nuke tipped cruise missiles - to wipe out the artillery in a first strike?

If the US was to go full Trump - what could be done to minimize South Korean causalities?

Whats the latest research on nuclear winters etc?

Not good - the chances of convincing everybody else to leave their toys at home would be low. It would probably escalate very messily.

Rachel

Not sure if this link will work but watched this recently - Tom_W

Tom_W1987 - Member

what would be the environmental effects of nuking every square inch of the NK border with stealthier nuke tipped cruise missiles - to wipe out the artillery in a first strike?

Probably not good for Seoul 35 miles away.

That video seems to forget we've had far more than 100 surface nuclear explosions during the testing years.

Rachel

At different places and points in times though Rachel, I think that video is more to the point of 100 consecutive or simultaneous explosions in very close proximity, say NK for example.

Having the explosions all in one locality makes their global effect even less pronounced. Whether they happen simultaneously or over the matter of a decade makes little difference to the climate

And remember Tsar Bomba, a 50 MT device, far greater than multiple tactical weapons that are normally dialled to 17KT yield, didn't create a noticeable effect.

Rachel

Id love to know if the yanks are feeding all their satellite imagery and intel into something like googles deepmind to wargame a first strike in a million different ways to see if it could be done....

Tom_W1987 - Member

Id love to know if the yanks are feeding all their satellite imagery and intel into something like googles deepmind to wargame a first strike in a million different ways to see if it could be done....

Still does nothing to offset the inevitable humanitarian disaster that accompanies the fall of North Korea.

yeah... its a zero sum game isnt it.

Still.... does Trump even care about NK civilians?

I really doubt Trump cares about NK civilians but it could tank South Korea too. It could cause massive damage to the Chinese economy and the global economy by extension.

It's a disaster every which way. The best possible outcome is a stalemate, then gradual deescalation over decades.

The Tsar Bomba and many of the other atmospheric tests were higher altitude airbursts, to minimise fallout. That wouldn't be the case in a war.

just seen 2 b1 bombers heading towards Lakenheath the end is nigh! not very stealth though even at altitude loud enough to wake the dead.

Id love to know if the yanks are feeding all their satellite imagery and intel into something like googles deepmind to wargame a first strike in a million different ways to see if it could be done....

[img] [/img]