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Apparently we are ganging up on him to bully him.
Wahts that quote about being savaged by a dead sheep? 🙂
Thanks for the reminder ernie
Yep, it's always useful to know that someone with a degree in economics can know jackshit.
Probably the single best example that I am aware of this is his comment concerning Argentina :
[i]"Of course these policies are great for solving inequality - you simply screw everyone and destroy the middle classes. Oh, except for the elite or very rich who conveniently keep their wealth offshore. "[/i]
Which is complete and utter nonsense. As I mentioned, it is precisely the so-called "screwed" middle classes who have done so well under the present government, and the "elite or very rich" who have lost the most.
He responds to the challenge with smart-arse comments such as "thanks again for posting the old picture of the Bank Boston HQ in BA - such intriguing memories" as if I'm suppose to be impressed.
What teamhurtmore doesn't realise is that although I don't have a masters in economics I do family across the social classes in Argentina and I know that he's talking bollox.
Amongst my many cousins in Argentina I have one who is a comfortable middle class architect living in BA. During the crises he lost his job with no prospect of any employment whatsoever, skint and totally desperate, he like many Argentines, tried to get a visa to Spain due to his mother being of Spanish descent (his father was my uncle) he failed. Luckily thanks to the Kirchners Argentina has been turned around in the last 10 years and normality has returned to his life.
Another cousin of mine living in Cordoba (different uncle) managed to find herself an extremely wealthy husband, and when I say extremely I mean extremely. I don't know the full extent of what he owns but it certainly includes Mercedes-Benz dealerships, very up market shopping malls, and three estancias (ranches) two of them huge, where they raise cattle and breed horses (I've stayed in one) That cousin hates Cristina Kirchner with a passion and real vengeance. Just the name Cristina, as the Argentine president is often called, sets her off. Which is ironic because her name is also Cristina 🙂 But then she has reason to hate Cristina Kirchner.
teamhurtmore, despite his masters degree, is quite wrong in his claims. He thinks that he can come out with any bullshit to suit his agenda by claiming he has a degree, as if no one else has. He thinks that he can come out with any bullshit to suit his agenda by claiming he's been there, seen it, done it, as if no one else has.
He's very fond of saying that he knows all about pre-Thatcher Britain because he lived through it, as if no one else has.
Don't be too impressed by someone who waves a degree in your face every 5 minutes to back up their arguments. And some of us have also lived through it, seen it, been there.
I struggle with long sentences! Could someone just summarise with a succinct yes or no answer please?
Are we all doomed or not?
Wow - if you guys are so confident in you views, why such sensitivity? And the dead sheep, really should be terryifying to anyone!
You see the funny thing is ermie that if you stopped to think, I am agreeing with you on so many points! But by playing TJs game you are missing that completely. I am well aware that you have considerable knowledge of Argentina and interesting to know where that stems from. So Kirchner has delivered an economic rebound...agreed, which is exactly why I bought a company in Argentina several years ago. Can the current policies be delivered....this is where we disagree....I doubt it, so I sold out last year. Fun while it lasted although not a smooth ride at all. Once played golf with senior judge in BA and his opening line on the first tee was " remember it's impossible to beat the judges in Argentina!"
The fact that Kirchner may now be over the honeymoon period is reflected in the irony for this thread is, guess what, she is now imposing AUSTERITY measures. How bizarre is that? do you agree with what she is doing now? Remember what Alfonsin ended up doing?
My point about wiping out the middle classes refers to the crisis not now. So there are some interesting lessons (good and bad) from thinking about Argentina as I have been since 1994. And while I agree with you in small parts I will continue to reject the idea that Argentina has a long term track record or transferable model in delivering sustainable economic growth. I hope for your families sake that I am wrong.
Again read what I say about TJs hobby horse - Europe. Repeat your searches and you will see that I have consistently argued that imposing austerity on the PIGS via deficit reduction is not only flawed but it mis-disgnoses the causes if the crisis. Ditto the coalition's over-reliance on the monetary tool of QE which cannot be successful when the transmission mechanism (banks) is broken and the shape of the LM curve is flat. But again we agree in parts. Funny that!
It seems where we disagree most strongly is over the issue of is this a fault of capitalism as a complete system or whether it is more a fault of the players - the markets, the banks, the politicians, the regulators, you and me. On that point we will obviously completely differ. I will be like the 90% of the audience at Davos this week but accept that being in the majority doesn't make you right. But if you look sround the world there are mixed economies that incorporate capitalism and governments that are doing rather well, perhaps that is why the Asians refer to this is a crisis of Western capitalism?!?L
And since, and only because, like the teaching economics bit, you bought up Messers Magnus, Roubini and Krugman. I know the first well and know hs current views in detail. Have shared platforms with the second and subscribe to his service (great but patchy results. Made one really great call and lots of not so good ones.) and read Krugmans blog often. And funnily enough if you read what I write am sharing a lot of their current views. How very bizarre!
...and can someone confirm whether or not its ok to wee through economists letterboxes?
Probably as effective (and legal) as sending emails to Stephen Hester!
Great thread fellas.
Hey mcboo
any evidence to support the India claim?
I posted last night but you must have gone off
We live in an amazing time.....literally hundreds of millions of people in India and China are being lifted out of absolute poverty in a process that has been going on for 20 years and continues to accelerate.
http://www.poverties.org/poverty-in-india.html
Finally Ernie, don't be merely an Internet troll like you tag partner. Use your Argentine knowledge. You should be able to see clearly what is going to happen in Greece and probably Portugal as a result of current policies. You know what will happen to the banks, the middle classes, social cohesion etc.
And after the crisis, you know who will do well in the eventual recovery with the new currency. Invest wisely and profit from your knowledge. But watch to see if the Greeks and the Portuguese have learned your lessons. See if in addition to stimulating their economies that actually reform them. If so make it a long term trade, if not make it a punt!
But don't waste such incredible experience and knowledge, be a capitalist!!!!!!. You could even email George and get a job at UBS writing about it!
Morning jota. I clicked on your linky, read the About section....
My name's Dario, I'm a young entrepreneur and independent filmmaker.
.....I mean, whats the point?
So where did you get your figures from?
jeez hurty
join us.... joiiiin usssss
we ll make you rich, rich RRRRIIIIICCHHH
careful or ill pee through your letter box
or do you live in a gated community? you might need to in the future
....guess what, she is now imposing AUSTERITY measures. How bizarre is that? do you agree with what she is doing now?
Eh ? Why is that bizarre ? Are you pulling my plonker or what ?
I'm fairly sure that Keynesian economics requires that government spending increases when the economy is slowing and unemployment is rising, and spending is reduced when economic activity picks up and unemployment is falling. The idea is to iron out the bumps - no recession no overheating. Or are you going to tell me that's all wrong ?
As for whether I agree with what she is doing now, I'm really not sure how many times I need to tell you this, but here goes once more. I am not a social democrat, however, I very strongly believe that social-democracy is immeasurable more desirable and successful than brutal neoliberalism. With that information try to answer the question yourself.
My point about wiping out the middle classes refers to the crisis not now.
That's simply not true, and well you know it. You were referring to Argentina now, not ten years ago :
teamhurtmore - Member.....without resorting to voodoo economics (an FT description for Argentina but can't quote it).
Of course these policies are great for solving inequality - you simply screw everyone and destroy the middle classes. Oh, except for the elite or very rich who conveniently keep their wealth offshore.
Posted 2 days ago
It's pretty clear that it's the policies which Argentina is pursuing now, which the FT is criticising. And it's also pretty clear that you are accusing [i]these[/i] policies of screwing and destroying the middle classes whilst leaving the elite or very rich unaffected.
I made a big thing out of your comment claiming that it was false, and bringing it up again more than once. And yet you wait a couple of pages, and days, later, to claim that you meant Argentina 10 years ago. If that was really true you would have said so straight away.
You're backtracking mate, and with the patronising and condescending attitude you've shown towards me I'm not prepared to let you off the hook that easily.
And while I agree with you in small parts I will continue to reject the idea that Argentina has a long term track record or transferable model in delivering sustainable economic growth.
Do you not read what I write ? Normally I wouldn't mind, but don't you think it might be a good idea if you're going to comment on my posts ?
I said, quote : "I am not offering Argentina up as an example of an "economic miracle"" and I also said, quote : "Argentina [i]will[/i] have problems in the future".
Enrie. This is a shame. The reason for my opaque Olive branch above was the irony that I am finishing a study on the breakup to the euro which includes the lessons from Arg. Needs to be finished for next week and needs more balance/different perspective on Argentina!!!!!! So you triggered a very, very lateral thought right from the outside - hence the persistence and mildly provocative questioning above. Anyway, my thought process was obviously far too lateral and after the last two posts I will stick to my normal route and outsource the missing bits elsewhere. Deadline looming now, so not posting for a while. Don't know the Spanish but as they say in France "tant pis!" ( ps, agree with lots of your final points!). Apologies if overstepped the mark in places. 😉
This is a shame. The reason for my opaque Olive branch above was.......
I took any "olive branch" to be for no reason other than it had occurred to you that I might not be totally clueless simply due to my historical connections with Argentina. The experiences of my cousins in Argentina is completely irrelevant - offering you two isolated examples doesn't make what I am saying right. Which is precisely why I never mentioned it throughout my extensive rebuttal of your claims.
I was simply showing you that two can play that game, and that not everyone is in the dark. But it requires something more than "I've been there/seen it/done it" or "I'm better qualified than you" to expect people to accept an argument.
To give you an example of how we differ in our approach just look at the issue of pre-Thatcher Britain. We have both lived in pre-Thatcher Britain and yet our perceptions of that period vary massively. Consequently you see Thatcher as a saviour, and I see Thatcher as a total disaster.
You however rely on making your argument along the lines of "I remember how Britain was before Thatcher, I lived through the 70s, and the 70s was a mess, Thatcher sorted it out". The inference is very clear - "don't argue with me I'm better qualified, 'cause you weren't there. Therefore I am right". I've heard you do it teamhurtmore.
I on the other hand would never rely on those sort of tactics because apart from the obvious arrogance of that attitude, I am fully aware that other people might have a totally different respective to me. I therefore rely on offering a political argument based on fact rather than my own personal prejudices.
So in contrast, I might point out that far from the economy doing well under Thatcher, to compared to before her, average growth in the 1980s was 2.4% which is exactly the same as average growth was in the 1970s - when the UK economy was an alleged "basket case". I might point out that far from reducing taxation, the highest tax burden Britain has ever experienced was under Thatcher. I might point out that far from reducing government spending, spending went up under Thatcher. And so on.....
I would never rely on "I'm better qualified to an opinion than you and therefore must be right". Every qualified person has their own personal agenda/prejudices. And anyone who tries that stroke with me is likely to receive contempt.
And finally I was reluctant to accept any "opaque olive branch" (whatever that means) because of this :
Finally Ernie, don't be merely an Internet troll like you tag partner. Use your Argentine knowledge. You should be able to see clearly what is going to happen in Greece and probably Portugal as a result of current policies. You know what will happen to the banks, the middle classes, social cohesion etc.And after the crisis, you know who will do well in the eventual recovery with the new currency. Invest wisely and profit from your knowledge. But watch to see if the Greeks and the Portuguese have learned your lessons. See if in addition to stimulating their economies that actually reform them. If so make it a long term trade, if not make it a punt!
But don't waste such incredible experience and knowledge, be a capitalist!!!!!!. You could even email George and get a job at UBS writing about it!
You clearly can't stop being patronising, condescending, and taking the piss. Which I don't mind btw, in fact I relish it - it gives me the opportunity to give some back. And there are few things more satisfying than taking the piss out of a patronising and condescending person 🙂
Ernie, I won't respond to "outstanding" points above other than to thank you for forcing me to do more work on Kirchner etc. Just finished off very interesting section comparing rather blunt fiscal adjustments in most developed countries now (income support, tax adjustments etc) with the different focus of fiscal policy in places like Arg, China and Korea where infrastructure investment has been much more important ALONGSIDE (ironically) the kind of supply side reforms that characterised the 80's in developed markets. As they didn't affect my investment directly I had missed some of that in Argentina, so good to learn something from STW. 😉