Will used car prices crash in the next year?

I have good credit bit this is about ten times as much as I can afford to spend on a car.

There is your answer. And realistically - in a healthy market at the price point you are looking at annual depreciation is between 10 and 20%  imo.

Lastly - buying from friend / acquaintance is the last thing I would ever do again.

#Edit - give us a clue about the car.

And in the meantime- browse :

https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&f=255&t=2069615&i=300

and it's predessor.

Expensive cars are a mug's game. Don't get one unless you are really rich. You will regret it.

If it's 10 times more than you can afford to spend on a car you can't afford it.

I have good credit bit this is about ten times as much as I can afford to spend on a car.

Then don’t buy it.

Bit of a risk

If all you gain is a newer car, I'd give it a miss

I'm at the exact opposite end of the spectrum with my £500 Porsche's and Volvo's!

I couldn't car less what happens to car prices but I think high used values are here to stay
My work colleague is the exact opposite to me and has lost 10x£ks on cars.

Spend as little as you need - cars are an expensive drain.

https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/porsche-500-bangernomics/

Would you consider buying a 35k car to use for 9 months if your mate wasn't selling one? Seems like madness to me. Just spend 3.5k instead.

This sounds like an absolutely bonkers idea!

So your mate is offering to sell you his car at the price a dealer sells it with warranty etc?

What is the webuyanycar price? That is closer to a mate's price IMO.

But in any case shelling out £35k for a car to own for 9 months is madness.

In my youth I stretched myself financially to buy a dream motorbike (GPZ900R if you must know) it was the archetypal ‘Friday afternoon job’, there was always stuff going wrong with it and it ended up costing me a fortune trying to keep it running, I sold it for less than half that I’d paid for it a couple of years later.

I learnt a valuable life lesson, I didn’t own that bike, that bike owned me!

I’ve seen lots of people in the years since do the same with cars, bikes, property etc that they couldn’t really afford.

buy something in your budget and be happy!

Four to five years is often high depreciation. A four year car will usually have a year of the manufacturer's guarantee left which is a good selling point. At five years you're selling a cars that's got no guarantee and is about to hit a big expensive service.

Edit to add: my current car is coming up to four and a half, I either trade in or sell now or keep it indefinitely. Madame Edukator likes it, I like it. The last time we made this kind of decision we ended up keeping the car 17 years.

Flippant answer aside, if matey is emigrating he won't sell his car privately - nobody is going to buy a £35k car privately without a warranty and/or credit facilities.

A private sale is going be considerably less than £35k - you just wouldn't risk buying a used complex high value SUV unless there was a considerable price difference to a dealership.
As mentioned above - find the Motorway/We Buy Any Car valuation and also look for realistic private sale prices that have factored the above into the equation. I'd pay <£30k which your mate won't be happy about.....And then knock a few grand off those prices for when they get desperate a few days before departure and they haven't sold it.

Smoke round in it for a year then sell it for a small profit/break even. No way would I be paying dealership prices and having to raise credit for it just to help them out or paying £2-3k for the luxury of a large barge for a year! I'd also consider my friendship if they were leaning on me to buy their expensive car just so they could emigrate.

2-3k for 6-9 months?

If you are going to sink that sort of money and expect no return, then rent something (short term lease) or buy something with decent residuals. Honda? Or something cheap.

Madness to buy a 35k car with the country in recession.

It's highly likely it will lose more than 2-3k over the next 12 months, just by virtue of being a 35k car now, so if you can't afford to lose more than that in 12 months then it's not the car for you

A car of that value might carry some hefty service costs.

I’ve never liked paying interest on a depreciating asset. It’s basically paying twice.

Especially if you can’t afford it.

Is there still a shortage of cars pushing used prices up?

Historically used car prices have been too low in the UK. Being able to buy a car for a weeks wages that’ll last for years was a bit unique.

Prices have already corrected down a bit but they're still down on value for money compared to when I last bought a 'nice' car in 2016.

Back then £13k got me a low mileage, high spec, 4 year old Passat estate.

That spec, age, mileage in the South is around £20k now.  That's way more than inflation.

I really like RNP's approach but I would worry about taking his approach + my mileage + regular urban driving in environmental terms.

Will they crash? I hope so. I’ll be looking to buy in a couple of years, so a return to ‘normal’ would be nice

Madness.

Prices may reduce - but not by the 90% necessary to make this viable for you.

You can afford £3.5k on a car - go buy a car within your price range, treat it nicely, sell after 9 months.

I think the post is an attempted troll; if not, it's pointless.

What is a 'semi luxury' SUV? Not a recognised term in car sales.

Just no to buying a £35k car.

I thought they'd crash at some point in covid and I was dead wrong, so I guess no.

Prices may reduce – but not by the 90% necessary to make this viable for you.

If the prices crashed by 90% he'd be properly screwed!

Best buy loads are 6% per year, so you'll lose 2k that way

The average newish car loses 20% per annum in value so you'll lose £5k that way

So if you have an average year you'll be £7k down. Unless COVID kills the supply chain I'd be amazed if you only lose 3k.

Avoid

LOL at this thread..I'm sorry but 35k?

buy a cheap runner, like a 1.2 micra or whatever and hire a van for the odd occasion you need to haul stuff.

6-9 months is bangernomics territory, but it right and you won’t lose a penny.

Nobody buys a 35k car do they? Surely almost all of those will be owned by company lease schemes.

Nobody buys a 35k car do they

Have you seen the prices of new cars ? Even crap cars new these these days are £30k plus with a range of about 100 miles.

I had to buy a car 2 yrs ago and spent £38k screen price on a 2nd hand Merc E class . So far I still in equity on the loan thankfully too

If he’s a mate he’ll sell it to you for less than Autotrader price. You should be looking at the cheapest of the prices from WBAC and the like.

But, no, it’s a mad idea for such a short period of ownership.

And from what I see used car prices are dropping.

Do the decent thing,

While dropping your mate off at the airport, say you'll store said semi luxury car on your drive for £40 a week until he sells it privately. Say you'll take it out for a spin to keep it ticking over and show prospective buyers round it.

I’m at the exact opposite end of the spectrum with my £500 Porsche’s and Volvo’s!

Yes but you do have the skills, tools, workshop space and time to do, what would be to most of us, many £1000s of repair work. Love seeing you renovation threads BTW.

Car prices are driven by supply and demand hence why second hand got expensive in Covid as no new ones to buy. New cars are still not where they where so unlikely to crash.

If your friend lets you have it at WBAC price you will break even selling privately in 6 to 9 months if you look after it and don’t add too many miles.

I don’t think used pieces will crash.

In general people need cars. When times are hard peole will buy used, increased demand, or hang onto their car, reduce supply.

But no don’t buy a used for £35,000 car unless that’s the price point you’re aiming at.

OP - not being rude but it sounds like a fairly terrible idea all round due to a very high risk built into your affordibiluty / lack of contingency.

Only things I'll add are have you evdn looked at insursnce quotes yet? Depending on your circumstances din't be surprised if insurance quotes come back at minimum £2k / year for a £35k value SUV. Just Google the current stories with Range Rover insurance as an example! Build that mammoth cost into your wquation also.

Also worst case scenario, think what happens if the car gets stolen / written off and then you're potrntially offered an evdn lower market valuation in return. Could you financially shoulder that? Again, its a worst case type scenario but 'luxury SUV' are highly sought after vehicles for beung targeted for theft.

WBAC put my low miles 9 year old GTI at 17k last year. i looked the other day - it's now 11k. i'd say any adjustment is already in. 35k on a boxster? ok. 35k on A.N.Other **** bus. no way.

Does your mate own the car, or does he need to clear the finance?

They're not trying to use you as a way of getting themselves out of a massive financial loss are they?

If you're serious, it'd be WBAC lowest offer with a bit knocked off...but with depreciation and hassle I don't think it's worth your time/effort. You won't find many private buyers in 9mths time and will need to price accordingly.

Nobody buys a 35k car do they? Surely almost all of those will be owned by company lease schemes.

Plenty of privately owned cars of that value.

4 years old and still £35k. That's luxury SUV territory. A fully specced self charging KIA Sportage is about £40k new and that's  really fancy. I'm guessing you're paying a badge tax on a four year old car, I wouldn't.

Are you mad or rich?! My car has been stuck in the garage for 2 months waiting for a steering rack, it's going to be another 2 months before it turns up on a ship.  So we bought a £1500 banger this week to tide us over, that's enough risk for me!  About the only way to sell a £35k car is to a dealer/trade in/WBAC. Not many buyers going to give that much cash for a private sale with no protection.  I did £12k once for a van and it felt like a big gamble!

Plenty of privately owned cars of that value.

Bought from whom though?

Evidently this idea sounded a lot better in my head than written on the page...

All I'm saying is that e.g. buying a £35k car and selling it for £32k would leave me in the same place as buying a £4k car and selling it for £1k, with added advantage of it not being ancient and a wreck. There are no cheap cars any more.

But I didn't think of the question of who I would sell it to at the end. It's mostly going to be traders.

Someone's got to be buying these £40k+ cars. A boggo Octavia is £28000!!!

But you £4k car is likely to be worth at least £3.5k a year later, it won't depreciate like the much newer car. You might even turn a profit!

In the very likely event you can't sell it privately, you are only going to get a trade price selling to a dealer so you'll probably lose much more than £3k.  And what's it gonna cost for a new tyre or something terrible like a gearbox problem?!

All I’m saying is that e.g. buying a £35k car and selling it for £32k

If you bought this "£35k car" today, how much would a dealer buy it off you tomorrow (never mind further down the line)? Start there... if it's £40k... crack on... if it's already £32k or less... then there you are.

If it helps focus the mind, my mate bought an Audi S4 about 18 months ago for £32k had ‘faultless’ motoring in that time other than an expensive service.

When his new company car turned up, he offered it on motorway and got an offer of £24k, which he was OK with being as he’d used it plenty and the general market downturn.  The buyers turned up and plugged diagnostic into it before completing, and it turned up an engine fault that the local Indy specialist said could be up to £8k to fix!  It’s still sitting on his driveway now!

buy it

In a world where a Kia Frottage is considered a luxury vehicle, I seriously wouldn't bother. Am old enough to remember when luxury was a Bentley. Buy something well made at the point it just reaches the bottom of its depreciation curve. Only run what you can afford to fix or replace without it causing a crisis, anything else is a mugs game.