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All this democracy BS? The Greek's don't have to pay, it's their choice not to.
The EU has previously installed an unelected banker (ironically) to the post of Greek Prime Minister.
So what do the pundits think will happen to the euro then in Greece exit? Will it tank? Take the pound with it?
The EU has previously installed an unelected banker (ironically) to the post of Greek Prime Minister.
Totally irrelevant. The Greeks have repeatedly elected governments which offered them the biggest handouts
Reported that the Greek proposal was 90% tax rises and 10% spending cuts, IMF wants to see a majority of budget changes be spending cuts. Cuts are real, tax rises are uncertain.
I smell capital controls being imposed soon. When Greeks cannot get their money out of the banks and the government cannot pay their wages they will see the folly of their "democratic" decision
They'll probably use the pound sterling. I mean it's not as if they even need to bother asking us 🙂
Totally irrelevant. The Greeks have repeatedly elected governments which offered them the biggest handouts
Except when the European Commission and the IMF installed an unelected banker to head the Greek government and do as they dictated, ie, impose hash austerity. So what happened then ?
Care to explain why he didn't sort the mess out ?
Or is that "totally irrelevant" ?
So what do the pundits think will happen to the euro then in Greece exit? Will it tank? Take the pound with it?
A number of different views, probably the most consensus is a sharp fall initially before a medium term recovery to a stronger position. Short term fall due to markets panicking a bit before exchange rate improves as the euro has lost its weakest member. The alternative extreme view is that a Greek default triggers the eventful collapse of the euro which can only be negative until the independent currencies are restored. A euro collapse would see money repatriated, ie German investors pull out of other euro countries and invest at home, so assets like property and other financial instruments will increase in value sharply.
I'd wager a Grexit would have negligable long term affect on the Euro, bit of turmoil for 6-12 months then everything back to normal.
I'd wager a Grexit would have negligable long term affect on the Euro, bit of turmoil for 6-12 months then everything back to normal.
In itself you're probably right. Question is if it leads to Spexit, Itexit, Porexit etc.
Can't see it, nobody's going to say any of those words out loud
In 2010 the worst of the financial crises had spread to governments as we had bailouts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The danger of contagion was very high. Now that's past, Ireland and Portugal have recovered and the eurozone is in much better shape. A Greek exit would not lead to issues with Ireland, Portugal, Spain or Italy. In fact if the Greeks had got a sweet deal it would have lead to major political problems in other countries, I mean if the Greeks don't have to pay back their debt as they voted left wing why don't we all try that ?
In itself you're probably right. Question is if it leads to Spexit, Itexit, Porexit etc.
Doubtful. I reckon the plan now, given that Greece is - and has been for a number of years - a lost cause as far as the EU/Euro is concerned, is to prolong the agony for as long as possible, to make the eventual exit so utterly, utterly devastating for Greece, that eternal subjugation to the EU is preferable to just saying, "f*** it, we're off" regardless of what that means for democracy, sovereignty and the population affected.
Question is if it leads to Spexit, Itexit, Porexit etc.
They're no where near as screwed as Greece though, yes they'd benefit from debt relief but they don't *need* it and will choose to stay in the Euro and just get on with life.
It should do. Lessons need to be learned. Th current system cannot work by design. You either need full monetary and fiscal union or a looser free trade zone. What you cannot do (although the Germans think that they can) is have this half way house, taking the benefits but none of the fiscal responsibility that goes with it. To succeed the "project" requires fiscal transfers, yes including to those profligate Greeks, because that is how it works. The myopic german attitude (also displayed by those who argue this is all the Greek's fault) is as bad and reprehensible as the Greeks position. At least th latter is based in a democratic mandate, however flawed.
This is interesting off the BBC news website just now,
So basically, balls to you Greece. You do what the creditors want, and that's that.Eurozone finance ministers will work on a financing for reforms deal with Greece on the basis of proposals put forward by its creditors, which a senior official of Greece's ruling Syriza party attacked as "blackmail" earlier. Negotiations with Athens have produced no agreement euro zone officials have said. They will start talks in Brussels at 13:30 (12:30 BST) on the basis of an offer agreed in Berlin at the beginning of June between Germany, France, the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Find and the European Commission. Also on the table will be a list of reform Greece has to enact before any money can be released to Athens, prepared by the creditors
So basically, balls to you Greece. You do what the creditors want, and that's that.
That was always the story, in fact - like a boss who has run out of logical arguments saying "because I'm the boss".
Tell you what, lend me fifty quid at say, three percent interest and tell a nice generous friend of yours to just keep lending me more money to pay you back the interest when it's due, for the rest of my life, eh?
What could be fairer than that?
What could be fairer than that?
No idea. Nor of the relevance. Simple analogies with household finance don't have much validity.
You do what the creditors want, and that's that.
Yup get over it.
Well, let's see. The Greeks lied about their finances so that the mugs "controlling" the Euro would let them join in the party.
When they were in, they started borrowing as much as they could to fund their top-heavy government-subsidized workforce to beyond the hilt whilst not bothering to collect any avoided tax money from the population, including the swimming-pool disguising rich.
When the interest started becoming due, they just borrowed more money from the stupid chumps who lent them the first tranche, knowing that they could just keep kicking the can down the road.
Unfortunately, as a strategy, it hasn't lasted and now the conned are starting to make demands.
"Non-simple" enough for you?
How many more rounds of 'can kicking' do we think then? I reckon some kind of fudge for this month's 1.6billon, but where do they get next month's 4billion, (IIRC) from?
No that's a gross oversimplification.
Tell me which country abided by (then and now by) the Maastricht criteria for starters. The founder members lied about their finances too. And they created a one way system that was uniquely in their benefit. Devalue your currency and then create artificial demand through cheap money for foreigners to buy your goods. Guess what? You run a nice current account surplus - yippee! And how do you make your balance of payments balance? You run a capital account deficit. Yippee to start with because you are controlling the rate and then boo hoo, my irresponsible lending is now biting me on the bum. Boo hoo. So instead of taking my medicine I will use taxpayers to bail out my banks and implement a suicide economic policy on the debtors that will condemn them while bearing no responsibility myself. Teutonic brilliance in a can.
Verstanden Sie?
There are always two sides to the story despite the "current Greeks are lazy tax dodgers" narrative. Political and economic myopia. But that sums up a lot about Europe.
Tell me which country abided by (then and now by) the Maastricht criteria for starters
Finland and Luxembourg IIRC
wow, I agree with THM on something!
It won't last. I agreed with Junkyard once, a statistical anomaly I say.
DrJ Greece's stance has been so ridiculous even the placid Lagrange described them as children (by implication). The Greeks have offered nothing credible so now the EU is saying, here is what we are prepared to offer (having agreed on it in advance). The Greeks are free to reject it, they are free to negotiate around it.
tmh there is quite some daylight between Greece and the rest of the EU when it comes to truthfulness
So instead of taking my medicine I will use taxpayers to bail out my banks and implement a suicide economic policy on the debtors that will condemn them while bearing no responsibility myself. Teutonic brilliance in a can.
Germany had a choice in 2010, it could bail out Greece or its own banks after they had forced a Greek default. I think the choice they made makes sense, it gave Greece a chance, 5 years in which they could have tried to tackle tax evasion, corruption and the restrictive nature of their labour market.
"There is an important creditor concession in the pension reforms, too, though. Creditors have been trying to get rid of a “solidarity grant” programme that provides a top-up bonus to poorer pensioners, know by the Greek acronym EKAS, by 2017 at the latest."
Just a minute - this can't be right - the IMF and EC have both been claiming that they had no plans to cut the pensions of poorer pensioners, and that Tsipras was misrepresenting them to claim otherwise. Now the truth is made clear. And Christine Lagarde's nose is longer than ever.
A chance - a massive wage deflation and/or mass unemployment, and an economic catastrophe?????With friends like that who needs enemies.
Greece is an appalling enactments of the perils of a flawed economic model being played out for political ends. It's grotesque in its awfulness and the major players are all to blame.
Creditors cannot escape the blame here as hard as they continue to try.
"top up bonus" isn't a pension it's a bonus, are these the extra 13th and 14th month pensioners get ?
Pensions to GDP 16%. Varoukfakis claims that due to the decline of the economy, well without the 27% decline they'd still be 12% no much higher than other euro countries. All this on top of the fact that much of Greek GDP is / was fake.
Newsnight was very interesting last night comparing wages etc with Portugal and Slovakia. Showing how much the Greek overpay themselves, "a country pretending it's rich when it isn't" or something like that was the quote from Evan.
Time to start selling a few assets to pay off some debt?
At the start of the crisis, the Greek government committed itself to bringing in €50bn from the sale of state assets. According to Mr Theocharis, that target was soon reduced to €30bn and then €20bn.
In total, the government has managed to raise about €2-3bn so far.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33232074
Whereas we shift pension liabilities off balance sheet and run a Ponzi scheme for most public sector pensions. And we have the cheek to lecture others.....
Simple analogies with household finance don't have much validity.
Can you inform the British media and voters of this please 😀
...Simple analogies with household finance don't have much validity.
why's that then?
Analogy_1: borrowing so much that you're relying on a pay-rise to cover the payments is risky, especially when you know your plans for growth aren't viable.
Analogy_2: Lying about your income so you can borrow even more is ****ing stupid.
can someone explain why these comparisons with household finance don't apply at the national-scale?
(surely what's happening in Greece shows that they very much do apply?)
I agree with tmh.
@tmh it's all relative and the Greeks could have made at least a token effort to sort out the tax evasion and the early retirement
@mudshark yes indeed and exactly why the IMF isn't buying any of the tax raising measures being promised, they want to see spending cuts today not promises of taxes tomorrow.
@awhiles, I think comparisons with personal finances are relevant. It's folk like Varoufakis who try and obscure financial reality with lots of academic nonsense and grandiose talk of social justice and democracy.
IMO tmh's comments reflect on the fact that the whole Euro project was a complete nause-up from the beginning and if it wasn't Greece, this would have happened anyway sooner or later...
It might have worked, it still could. Greek's should never have been admitted.
Beware of Greeks bearing gifts.
😉
Useful info, [b]mudshark[/b], but about 5 years too late
Mostly so I can get home again. This holiday has felt a little like playing Russian Roulette.
Right, I don't really understand any of this, but; my folks have rented a villa for a year in Crete. Should I be concerned for them? They say that they are not risking their capital so they'll be safe from the fallout of any potential outcome to this fiasco. Am I ever going to see them again? Or will they suddenly find themselves living in St Petersburg by the sea, having to apply in triplicate to Putin to get permission to leave? :-/
[i]can someone explain why these comparisons with household finance don't apply at the national-scale?[/i]
because (mostly) you can't print more money when you feel like it.
The E.U. was always meant to fail - It's incremental folly - a more palatable step towards Global Governance and the disassembly of sovereignty.. If the Politicians weren't bought and paid for by anyone other than their electorate - An audit of the central bank's would ensue and the deficit could be dramatically reduced - But instead we're on a trajectory that could easily end up with an exponential growth in civil asset forfeiture and a currency reset ..
.....grandiose talk of social justice and democracy.
😆
Could anyone address this please? I'm a little concerned. I quite like my folks...
Right, I don't really understand any of this, but; my folks have rented a villa for a year in Crete. Should I be concerned for them? They say that they are not risking their capital so they'll be safe from the fallout of any potential outcome to this fiasco. Am I ever going to see them again? Or will they suddenly find themselves living in St Petersburg by the sea, having to apply in triplicate to Putin to get permission to leave? :-/
Mass deportation of Crete residents to St Petersburg is unlikely. HTH.
Off to Crete on Tuesday;not really expecting it to become a Soviet protectorate in that time. Not expecting to be able to use a card for anything either,but could you imagine living there just now? Poor sods.