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No Rydster.
I drive 5 min every day to one of the large woodland areas surrounding my house, to walk my spaniels. If I walked from the door I would bump into the village old folk taking their daily exercise/dog walk. Doing it my way I leave the village paths for them, and see nobody.
Im in Sussex, but no way Im going to The South Downs, Beachy Head, or the beach - just quiet local woodland via access points nobody ever uses.
@tpbiker I missed your questions.
It’s a huge effort to develop a new drug. Most people have no idea how much work. I’m looking at some of our previous drugs (that may have a use but never made it to approval stage), and some established medicines that can be used now.
A physician can legally prescribe any approved medicine, even for a different indication. But if one says you need chemo for your ingrowing toenail, seek a second opinion 😉 . So lots of people are scrabbling to test things they CAN prescribe now. And will then test what cannot.
Early treatment is often the best prevention. That’s why in the H1N1 pandemic in 2009 you only had to say your partner had symptoms and you’d be given the drug from the pharmacist. We don’t have those (tested and approved) drugs for COVID19 yet. When we do, same thing.
I foresee a box of hydroxychloroquine in every medicine cupboard for first symptom signs. One day perhaps. Wait for the BIG trials.
These are worth a read. Evidence will come.
https://fullfact.org/online/chloroquine-coronavirus/
[TL:DR] have to TEST a new drug properly to become an APPROVED medicine, but doctors can and are trying current medicines where there is a reason to think they will be helpful. And treating early is normally a good thing.
The two things they both seemed sure of were that the British government had no intention of trying to stop this thing, but wanted to give the impression that they did. Hence the “pretend lockdown” the other thing was that the new hospital in London wasn’t a hospital at all, but a standby mortuary!
I'd say nonsense. Government missed opportunities, definitely. No one can "stop" this as such, it's about controlling the spread to minimise the hospital crisis.
There is a large morgue at the new Nightingale, but the ice rinks will be used as the main morgues.
The mixed and vague messages from the government has been a real problem. Telling people it’s ok to drive a short distance to exercise is a license for everyone to drive to local beauty spots and parks. It’s so dumb. The government is scared to set rules like a bad teacher.
This x 1000.
Official message, message from Boris, memes on social media, a doorstepped interview with a random minister saying something else (usually a whole pile of waffle to try to hide the fact they literally haven't got a clue), a few news reports mixed in with the Daily Wail doing its usual OUTRAGE!!! blame game (within hours of Boris confirming he had it, they were blaming the EU which is impressive even by their standards).
This is worth a read:
https://twitter.com/JohnBaker1975/status/1246746102914846720
The government is scared to set rules like a bad teacher.
Absolutely. Most people respond well if facts are explained clearly without emotive language. Some won’t but I think most will. Even those faced with hardship, if it is explained clearly how the country will look after them (it will, and those who can will be paying for a decade, but so be it - I am happy to do so).
The government has failed in its communication because the communicators don’t have that clarity. I only post on matters on which I do. Their job is to do the same.
Stuff is always harder and more complex than you think. There’s no shame in admitting that, and telling them we don’t know but have better minds working on it than mine. That is called leadership. See that testing nonsense earlier.
Next weekend is the real test, for everyone of us furloughed/WFH there's also people still having to go into work and next weekend will be their first chance this year to properly blow off steam
I'm pleasantly surprised by how well the majority have done thus far
I’d actually forgot it’s a bank holiday weekend
Never underestimate the power of stupid
Local guy dressed up as Deadshot the Marvel antihero.
Plasters the route on bookface then walks around the street with an imitation fire arm
You know where this is going.....
On cue 2 x Armed response vehicles plus 4 copers plus a helicopter overhead and the guy is taken down at gunpoint, in a sleepy small seeside town, inhabited by morons
The Government weren’t clear that you can’t wander around as a Marvel character holding an imitation firearm.
Local guy dressed up as Deadshot the Marvel antihero.
it's DC comics actually......
The Government weren’t clear that you can’t wander around as a Marvel character holding an imitation firearm.
Presumably Ant Man and Wasp are safe from contracting Coronavirus.
You can’t see them so should be fine. I can’t see anywhere they say you can’t.
TiRed - how scaleable is Hydroxychloroquine in the short term? If it works then every country in the world is going to want it.
That and sending a fire engine or maybe Boris’ water cannon round the odd park/beach to soak a few groups now and again
Good luck with that! given the treatment the government have dishes out to the Fire Service over the years. The Boris cannons were scrapped many years ago, another great Boris idea that cost money.
I've just got back from a local ride (up to Buckstones and back for W Yorks locals). Anyway quite a few motorbikes out and cars randomly parked up with several people in them.
At the car park at the top that looks down to March Haigh Res, there were 10 cars and a van. Most had people in them smoking, drinking and chatting to the car next to them..they were parked so close that their mirrors were folded in. Mostly people in 20s and 30s but some older. Absolute muppets
I’m pleasantly surprised by how well the majority have done thus far
Me too it's been very well observed where I am. In local beauty spots the police and local authority have been out. Friends in that-London say it's dead despite the media images. I don't know how long we'll maintain this but so far so good from what I've seen. (Early days yet.)
TiRed – how scaleable is Hydroxychloroquine in the short term? If it works then every country in the world is going to want it.
V good question. Someone who knows about these things will be along shortly but given one of the stated advantages is "availability" and low cost I'm thinking it might be very easy to manufacture in volume.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0156-0
So.. Im sure i’ve read recently somewhere that Matt Hancock said it was OK to drive a short distance to exercise?? Can anyone post me a link to this please
MH's instruction here:
https://twitter.com/MattHancock/status/1246122731411853321
Hydroxychloroquine hasn't shown any advantages in properly controlled trials so far. It's part of the national trial process however so more data will confirm this. A French physician was promoting it but he is renowned for adjusting data to suit end results so not reliable.
TiRed – how scaleable is Hydroxychloroquine in the short term?
I’m Research and Development not CMC ;-). Truth be told, I have no idea. But it’s an old drug which I expect can be made in kilo quantities, most likely in India and China.
https://www.beilstein-journals.org/bjoc/articles/14/45
Is interesting
France changes advice on face masks and orders billions
MH’s instruction here:
That's funny OOB, coz 24hrs earlier Matt Hancock said it was fine to go for a short drive to go for some exercise
54 mins in
www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000gxw2
Matt Hancock has been caught out lying so often now, I'm amazed anyone believes a word he says
I've read that several Indian API manufacturers have switched to making hydroxychloroquine. It's a well establshed synthesis so supply shouldramp up soon. But the population of India is likely to come first in line. Given the speed of our own government at taking action, the UK will be well down the list.
We've just had some information about the evangelical religious meeting in Mulhouse where the problems in eastern France started. TF1 showed some video of the meeting which had a multi-generational audience. 2500 people attended for several days. 2000 of whom were infected and of those over 20 have died. I find those numbers impressive in a bad way. It demostrates just how infectious the virus is and its impact on an apparently fit and active audience. And that was with some really good hospitals with all the necessary ICU capacity to deal with the victims.
If ever there was a sample that tells us the human cost of the herd approach would be huge this is it. I'll take confinement over those numbers thank you.
Shutters painted, front door nearly finished, outhouse wall cleaned prepped and ready for paint on Wednesday. Commiserations to those of you who don't have private outdoor space and are only allowed out for essentials. Fingers crossed for those who are sick or know someone who is.
They should be able to ramp up chloroquine production fairly quickly.
just depends on who is registered as a manufacturer and in which jurisdictions.
just because someone can make either the api or the finished product doesn't mean they will be able to sell it or use it.
that being said there are countries that will accept it anyway, but based on a lot of the fda 483's and the level of control required for the ma's it would be surprising if it immediately made a difference to availability.
Sorry should add some clarity to this.
a marketing authorisation requires that all api producers be approved and licensed, plus subject to regulatory inspection and the company must have conducted due diligence on their suppliers. Ultimately a qp will have to sign off on the batch for release into the uk or Europe, this cannot be devolved to the country of manufacture (if that is outside the eu, inc the uk for now), so every batch will also have to be tested within the eu and approved on top of any potential ma reg changes.
however if they are already registered then the manufacturers would simply need to test more, which could be a bottle neck, but small molecules are pretty easy to test providing people don't delete data
TiRed - my degree was in Chem Eng, although I never practiced, going straight into the RAF, so that synthesis plan takes me back!
Well, amongst all the horrendous news and suffering, there is at least a glimmer of hope.
Heres the clarity of message that weve all come to rely upon from the government during this crisis
https://twitter.com/SpillerOfTea/status/1246849514390147072
Wow - Leo Varadkar is going back to the front line one day a week during all of this! Didn't even know he was a Dr.
They should be able to ramp up chloroquine production fairly quickly.
Only if the country that provides the raw materials has a surplus. Peru could become the new Saudi !
Heres the clarity of message that weve all come to rely upon from the government during this crisis
Clear as…
Wow – Leo Varadkar is going back to the front line one day a week during all of this!
Well, I’m sure Johnson has been getting some of his vital “writing fantasy for money” done while this is all going on.
Bojo is in hospital for tests according to sky news
That's not good..... Thought it was taking a while for him to 'recover'.
I hope the staff have the correct PPE to protect them from that odious man
Thought it was taking a while for him to ‘recover’.
Me too. Chris Whitty, as well. He's not been on TV much since he got the symptoms. I wonder if he's got a bad dose too.
The stress/hassle/lack of sleep of the last weeks can't be good for either of their immune systems.
Good case study for not shaking hands with people......
so you think he has had any meetings with rees mogg? We can hope
The stress/hassle/lack of sleep of the last weeks can’t be good for either of their immune systems.
Boris doesn't exactly scream 'healthy' tbh, he's been heavy for years, wouldn't surprise if he's diabetic.
I seriously hope he's okay though.
So that leaves Dominic Rabb in charge then, we're ****ed worse than we thought possible
Who takes over while Boris is out of action?
Eins Extra reported from a hospital in Freiburg earlier. They went through how they'd saved a couple of the patients, notably one of the doctors who'd been infected. Not only had they used a ventilator, they'd also used a machine to artificially oxygenate the blood while her lungs were not working. They might be able to produce more ventilators quickly but once the sytem is stressed it's clear that not everybody can benefit from some of the more sophisticated treatments being used on the worst cases they think they can save.
A German specialist commented on the triage approach in Germany which is very different to the total number of years that can be saved appraoch in Italy. The German philosphy at present is to take each case on its merits and give priority to the people they think they can save using a host of criteria, not just age.
More good news out of eastern France about the number of new cases reaching hospitals. In Italy too. Confinement is achieving the objective of keeping the number of cases manageable, stay isolated, stay healthy, people.
@Edukator am assuming that is the ecmo machines.
Have even less of those than ventilators however what's the betting Boris gets one if he needs it
Boris in hospital
Thoughts and prayers...
Boris doesn’t exactly scream ‘healthy’ tbh, he’s been heavy for years, wouldn’t surprise if he’s diabetic.
I seriously hope he’s okay though.
agreed, as much as I think hes a serial bullshitter & muppet of the highest order
hes always been overweight, heavy drinker (& coke habbit whilst mayor, allegedly) smokes cigars, not sure about cigarettes tho? but high blood pressure, diabetes & heart disease were biggest comorbities in severe vs non severe patients
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30136-3/fulltext
Boris doesn’t exactly scream ‘healthy’ tbh, he’s been heavy for years, wouldn’t surprise if he’s diabetic.
Yeah, Journos are often drinkers as well IME, which isn't good for your immune system. I'd like to think Chris Whitty might have looked after himself a bit better but who knows. I think we can manage without Boris for a while. In contrast, I hope Whitty's back in the game ASAP.
Have even less of those than ventilators however what’s the betting Boris gets one if he needs it
A ~55yo bloke who's about to be a father who happens to be PM probably ought to be fairly high on the list for medical help. I don't think that's unreasonable. (...and that assumes there's currently a shortage of ventilators which I don't think there is.)
Financial aid from the EU to repatriate stranded Brits
https://www.ft.com/content/1bf986e6-ae9c-4afe-975c-0e51997ea3c4
Journos
Columnists
The issue for Boris is that even if he ends up on a ventilator, the survival rates are not exactly great.
better than not having a ventilator admittedly
A matter of when not if as regards an mp being admitted. The only surprise is who. Mind you, as already stated, the health factors are not good.
An unrelated question. Is nightingale operational yet?
An unrelated question. Is nightingale operational yet?
I thought there was something in the news yesterday saying it was planned but they still had capacity in the existing hospitals. It's likely to be in this next week.
It was pretty obvious something wasn't right with Boris, I know he liked to go AWOL but apart from a couple of tweets he was pretty quiet. (perhaps I shouldn't of phrased that in the past tense)
Hydroxychloroquine (may or) may not turn out to save the human race, regardless of what the orange american thing may say
As said before, studies are tiny, few in number, flawed (the Marseille one has been criticised heavily on social media and in more formal print https://www.isac.world/news-and-publications/official-isac-statement ) and contradictory (one recently from Paris in more poorly patients showed "no benefit" - again small study though)
The possibility of combining hydroxychlorquine and azithromycin as some have proposed carries risks and there MAY have been at least one death attributable to the treatment already (isolated case report but the toxic effects are pretty predictable)
There are proper, big trials taking place that hopefully will answer some of this but a drug that hopes to prevent serious illness in a handful of mildly symptomatic patients is going to need a BIG trial because a lot of those folk will improve spontaneously anyway and we don't know what predicts the course of disease in all cases.
Whether treatments work in pts who are already significantly more ill is probably going to look easier statistically but standardising or controlling for all other aspects of care is going to be tough
Sorry - have a good week, all. Here's hoping to see some good, persistent evidence of tailing off in London's death rates (admission rates supposedly calming down a bit).
Now that there are enough recovered patients to provide enough blood there's a French study using injected blood plasma with Covid 19 antibodies. No results yet.
Some good info tonight guys, thanks, and look after yourselves and your loved ones. 💙
Now that there are enough recovered patients to provide enough blood there’s a French study using injected blood plasma with Covid 19 antibodies. No results yet.
I'm sure I've read that means nothing - that's not a vaccine - a vaccine would still be >12 months away.
Anyone know if there has been any studies with coenzyme Q10 and CV19.. Its had beneficial findings in one or two small studies of pneumonia recovery and it's benefits in old people..
Here's the recent paper showing no benefit in a small sample BTW:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0399077X20300858
I’m sure I’ve read that means nothing
Well if the technique works as well as it does with several other viral illnesses it will save a lot of lives. The idea has been around since the 19C, the study is to find out if it works with Covid. I didn't use the word "vaccine" for a good reason.
Without trying to sound melodramatic you don't go to the hospital in the evening as a precaution. Hope he's ok.
Can someone please explain to me why diabetes, high blood pressure, and heart desease increase the risk so much?
Is it because as your lungs fail your heart has to work faster and is more likely to give up if you have the aforementioned afflictions? Or is it somethings else?
Poor bastard. For all his flaws, remember that he almost certainly picked this up ‘in the line of duty’ as it were. I hope he gets better soon but make no mistake this is an ominous sign.
High blood sugar impairs your immune response, and even the very best diabetics will tend to run a little higher than a nondiabetic. Also there's some crossover stuff with poor circulation.
For me, I'm youngish and healthyish and my control while not amazing is not awful, so it shouldn't make a huge difference (though it will make some). But especially in older patients who lived a long time with more primitive insulins and control regimes where good control was so damn hard (or people in, say, the US, where cost can make good control hard), that's more of an issue. And anyone who's had imperfect diabetic control for a long time will tend to be generally less healthy.
Well if the technique works as well as it does with several other viral illnesses it will save a lot of lives. The idea has been around since the 19C, the study is to find out if it works with Covid. I didn’t use the word “vaccine” for a good reason.
They're tried it in China. If treatment was as simple as that I can't believe the world wouldn't have worked it out by now.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-can-plasma-recovered-patients-treat-sick
Hope I'm wrong!
For all his flaws, remember that he almost certainly picked this up ‘in the line of duty’ as it were.
He was being reckless when we had enough knowledge from other countries to act. All that “I shock the hands of everybody” boasting etc. I really hope he comes through this, but his jokey lack of seriousness early on was a mistake for all us, not just a risk for himself and his loved ones.
What I have been told, it gets serious on the 8th day.
I'm conflicted, Boris being poorly is tickling my schadenfreude proclivities but Raab as a backup PM is scary. The man who didn't realise that so much trade went thru Dover when he was Brexit secretary doesn't inspire confidence
Boris is running a high temp for such a long time makes me think he’s got a secondary lung infection. Not good whichever way and whilst I absolutely not a fan I hope he gets better pretty soon.
Now that there are enough recovered patients to provide enough blood there’s a French study using injected blood plasma with Covid 19 antibodies. No results yet.
I’m sure I’ve read that means nothing – that’s not a vaccine – a vaccine would still be >12 months away
They've reported good outcomes from China (usual small studies etc etc) and it worked at least a bit even against Ebola, 'til they got some better tools for the job.
Not quite the same thing (pretty close, mind) but we still give (more) "purified" antibodies to some patients against other disease - varicella and rabies for 2 examples
God, I hope we're looking at this in the UK
Poor bastard. For all his flaws, remember that he almost certainly picked this up ‘in the line of duty’ as it were. I hope he gets better soon but make no mistake this is an ominous sign.
I think theres some pretty serious questions to be asked about why Parliament didnt go 'virtual' the minute Nadine Dories was diagnosed, several times ministers & aides have been pictured in close contact
https://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1243881573809823750
scottish CMO has just resigned for an arguably less serious infraction than that ^^
It also raises the issue of whether we should be ignoring the WHO advice about isolating for 14 days,
small study here showed people with severe lung problems shedding virus at 11 days after infection
I’m sure I’ve read that means nothing – that’s not a vaccine – a vaccine would still be >12 months away.
It is passive transfer of human-generated polyclonal (lots of types) antibodies against the virus. Antibodies hang around for a few months in your system - that's why we are here, and babies are not wiped out at birth (they cross the placenta using a receptor known as the Brambell receptor, which keeps them in the body so long too. The FDA approved serum replacement as a named patient therapy a week ago.
Passive vaccination is the dosing of an antibody to protect. At the moment they have to come from past patients. One day they WILL come from a bioreactor.
Active vaccination is when you give someone the bit that sets off their immune system to make their own protection. One day we MAY have one of those vaccines too.
Hope Boris is OK. Remember, you won't go "straight to ITU". He might just need supplementary O2 to get his SATS up. And 8-days is seems thereabouts based on my week.
I think theres some pretty serious questions to be asked about why Parliament didnt go ‘virtual’ the minute Nadine Dories was diagnosed, several times ministers & aides have been pictured in close contact
Considering the Queen was having her weekly meetings with Boris until recently, we're remarkably lucky to hear her soothing tones reassuring the nation in these challenging times!
I hope he gets better soon but make no mistake this is an ominous sign.
It's OK. DWP has declared him fit to work.
Seriously though, hopefully this is just chest x-ray and a bit of supplemental oxygen territory.
Blimey, it has been a busy day... between Boris and the Queen, they've saved Prince Charles a heap of embarrassment thanks to NHS Nightingale
Turns out that until press exposure made them think otherwise, the folks behind ExCel (which among others includes Tom King, ex defence minister and Chair of the intelligence and security committee and Steven Norris, a transport Minister who also happened to be a patron of Sustrans and Chairman of the National Cycling Strategy Board) were looking to charge £2-3 Million a month for use of the Centre...
https://twitter.com/premnsikka/status/1246747570396897280
Wonder how much they charge when hosting the world's largest arms fair, DSEI?
The world leading event that connects governments, national armed forces, industry thought leaders and the global defence & security supply chain on an unrivalled scale.
Still, errr, get well soon Boris, hope you're chipper ready for the weekly phone call with the Queen old chap...
the "operation last gasp" joke not looking too funny for him right now!
The reported unreliability of anti body testing for those that had mild/no symptoms.
Is that fairly common for that kind of test?
It's true..we were expecting a tiger who was coming for tea, but he's cancelled as he has to self isolate
is that the new meme "won't somebody please think of the cats!" ?
Maybe I am a bad person but I cannot find a single shred of sympathy for Johnson mainly because his (in)actions have cost thousands upon thousands of lives.
What I have been told, it gets serious on the 8th day.
Hang on - I thought with symptoms we just need to isolate for 7 days?