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Looks like it's running rampant through South Wales and the Valleys.
Guessing it's due to the geography of the place meaning people travel up and down busy corridors, basically 6 lines, and all it takes is one carrier to cross from one valley to the next then it runs up and down that valley's population. Add in that a lot of valleys only have one shopping centre then you have a pretty large population in a small are all going to the same place. Lots of elderly and ill people there too, legacy of the mines etc. Makes for a grim future for them.
I’d rather be poorer and live in a society where people are cared for and not abandoned to die alone.
Trouble is that making society poorer creates a situation where the poorest people are abandoned and die anyway. 17,000 due to fuel poverty related illnesses according to https://www.e3g.org/news/media-room/17000-people-in-the-uk-died-last-winter-due-to-cold-housing
There is no good answer, only least worst. Fortunately I don't have to make the decisions. Unfortunately....have you seen who is?
^ true, that's what I had come in to ask/wonder about.
Now, I do not have the answers to this and am not suggesting any actions, but is there a sense that the cure will be worse?
The economic damage isn't just to people's savings or not going out for dinner as often - this lockdown will kill people who are on society's margins.
But will it kill more people than it saves? Will it save people who would die anyway and kill people with a longer life in front of them (!!!!ETHICAL DANGER ZONE ALERT!!!!)
Will the reduction in economic activity save lives (lower air pollution, more people exercising, less stress)????
I have no clue.
Decent look at it in this article, though obviously no conclusions:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654
Headlice drug might be a good treatment? ivermectin
https://www.google.com/amp/s/en.as.com/en/2020/04/04/other_sports/1585963017_478782.amp.html
From the article:
What about the impact of the lockdown?
The lockdown, itself, however could cost lives.Prof Robert Dinwall, from Nottingham Trent University, says "the collateral damage to society and the economy" could include:
mental health problems and suicides linked to self-isolation
heart problems from lack of activity
the impact on health from increased unemployment and reduced living standards
Others have also pointed to the health cost from steps such as delaying routine operations and cancer screening.Meanwhile, University of Bristol researchers say the benefit of a long-term lockdown in reducing premature deaths could be outweighed by the lost life expectancy from a prolonged economic dip.
And the tipping point, they say, is a 6.4% decline in the size of the economy - on a par with what happened following the 2008 financial crash.
It would see a loss of three months of life on average across the population because of factors from declining living standards to poorer health care.
this lockdown will kill people who are on society’s margins
And you think that letting this virus let rip through society will would spare the people on its margins? The homeless, people with poor health… they are exactly the kind of people who would be hit hardest if we refused to stay at home at this time due to worries about our own financial situations.
ivermectin
Sounds promising...kind of answer a my earlier question about when it's most effective..Sounds like ideally you wouldn't wait till a visit to hospital to take it.
On another note..is it just my street or anyone else's neighbours out on mass in the street. Mine seem to be having some kind of party, albeit sitting about 5 meters apart on chairs and shouting at each other whilst drinking wine.
this lockdown will kill people who are on society’s margins.How?
People who live paycheck to paycheck, gig economy, people reliant on services like mental health or Universal Credit. Lonely folk who have been deprived of their one "social interaction" a week at the bingo hall or the pub quiz. People with ongoing medical needs who can no longer access doctor or hospital for anything but the most urgent life-threatening cases.
In the aftermath of this there's going to be a lot of folk looking at the shattered ruins of their lives, the massive overdraft/credit card bill, the mental health issues, possibly physical issues from lack of mobility or lack of decent food (and that includes kids who at least got one decent meal a day at school). Businesses that have failed...
If a no-deal Brexit falls at the door in 9 months time, it'll be catastrophic.
Watford General closed it’s doors to all emergencies as running out of oxygen
BBC article says the decision was taken as a "result of a technical issue with our hospital's oxygen equipment". Doesn't say running out of oxygen.
The BBC have updated, as earlier it was saying "Running out".
Some of the quotes attributed to Professors need to be taken with a pinch of salt. Not every Prof is a leader in their field, not all of them are stable individuals and some of them are just crackpots. Academia does have some very strange individuals.
There are good and bad ones just like bricklayers, doctors and teachers.
Academia does have some very strange individuals.
There are good and bad ones just like bricklayers, doctors and teachers.
Or they just have opposing theories. Some aren't too grounded in practicalities. Which depending on the subject area is or is not a major issue.
less stress
This is not working out for me at least, stressed to ****!
this lockdown will...
Bleakly I don't see a way where significant numbers of people aren't loosing out either way. It could be the difference between the % of people suffering undue hardship either way is similar. May not be exactly the same people under both situations although there may be some who have it bad under either.
I guess this is what they are looking at when thinking about lifting restrictions - having the minimum negative impact for either solution. That's not to say even the minimum is going to be massive. Even when we are out, the rest of the world may or may not be, it's not suddenly going to be all back to normal.
Another 2 weeks' extension in Spain, til the 26th. My 6yo has not left the house for 3 weeks now ( small city centre flat, no garden, no dog to walk ) which is starting to worry me a bit.
Indeed and some of these papers are 'conversation starters' which normally don't see the light of day outside of academia. Someone might plug some 'what if?' numbers into a model and see what they get. As us laypeople see it going on in real-time we're apt to overinterpret what's going on. Science isn't a clean process.
This is not working out for me at least, stressed to ****!
Sorry to see that, I know it's not really much consolation but hang in there and keep talking to people. It's probably the talking that's the main thing.
slowoldman
I don’t think the monarch would be used in this way. It’s for government to make (and announce) policy. It’ll probably be a “stiff upper lip, do your bit for the country” sort of thing.
No, I'm sure it will be something along the lines that she cares so much for us that she is going to liquidate the royal land holdings and art treasures to ensure we all get through these plague years safely and in good health.
No one will object if she keeps a couple of palaces, will they?
Anyone mentioned Eyam yet?
Well i must say, that was a cheery read ....🤔😂
Actually the BBC did a piece on Eyam recently when Coronavirus started here, so possibly 6 weeks ago? It must be on iPlayer
oops wrong thread!
Seems to be an awful lot of coverage on the BBC website given to the effects of coronavirus on premiership football. It's hardly important in the scheme of things is it!
Either way no one is coming out of this well. Premier club taking the absolute piss with fuloughing non playing staff, they are now using the excuse that if they don't pay the players that means less tax for the nhs...🤔
They also claim that if the league doesn't finish they'll owe the broadcasters 700m. The same broadcasters who are refusing to refund subscriptions..
Aye, spurs furloughing staff, levy taking millions out the club, players moaning. Just one example.
I used to absolute love the game when I was young, this will be the final straw for me.
An embarrassment.
Now that we know more about the lock down ..is it still ok for me to drive 3 miles to my shop to paint the walls?
It’s your job & you can’t paint it from home.
You aren’t bumping into anyone else, so why not?
What he said.
epicyclo
Subscriber
Anyone mentioned Eyam yet?https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35064071/blockquote >
Thanks for posting that.
What a truly remarkable story about some remarkable people.
Humbling.
7-day UK prediction for next Saturday is less than 7000 deaths would be good news. Expected incidence is 1000 deaths/day, with 10000 deaths a signifincant milestonw at the higher end of the prediction. There is some support for a peak, but I think it will be later than Easter Sunday. Recent global data seems to has pushed the peak out several weeks. Still a little early to call.
Nothing to add apart from
1) thanks TiRed
2) I'm post 7000!! Wahey
If we peak in mid- April, then the tail of the curve is still very long. How many months until we get to a point where new infection rate is more manageable?
less than 7000 deaths would be good news.
Wow! That's sobering news. It's appreciated though TiRed, thanks for sharing your information and expertise.
Thanks for sharing TiRed - hope you're feeling better.
============================
On the immunity certificates issue:
The Independent - scientist against / views as dangerous
Considering deaths were/are doubling every 3 days, 7000 by next Saturday would be a considerable slow down. Remember those curves are log scale, so with no slowdown we could be at 17000 by next weekend.
We haven’t seen Chris Witty for a while since he developed symptoms - I hope he is ok.
Just a couple of Twitter posts. But no idea if he posted them or someone from comms
"Considering deaths were/are doubling every 3 days, 7000 by next Saturday would be a considerable slow down. Remember those curves are log scale, so with no slowdown we could be at 17000 by next weekend."
I assumed he meant 7000 new deaths this week (1000/day), so we would be at about 11-12,000 total next weekend. Which is still less than 17,000 and would imply a slowdown.
We haven’t seen Chris Witty for a while since he developed symptoms – I hope he is ok.
Was thinking the same.
Removed.
Hancock bounced back fairly swiftly, but Witty and Bodger are taking far longer.
It's odd how it gets everyone differently.
Thanks for explaining the stats TiRed, our trust is expecting peak demand to be on or around 14th; they seem fairly confident with that prediction.
Where are you stretch?
Number is cumulative. So less than 7000 total would be good news. Sadly 10000 total and 1000/day is also within the prediction interval for incidence.
Feeling a bit better. Just took my Reston night HR and it is 54. So getting there (I was nowhere near race fit before). Exertion brings it up quite a bit.
The post positive sign is that my palmar psoriasis is back and pale is itching like mad. That’s an immune system switch, probably as the innate immune system turns down.
Dan - Northern England. Our local cases are a little behind the curve at the moment which I think will result in us receiving some from other areas
“For example: it would be fair to assume part of the price for let it burn is going to included a lot of health care professionals. Never mind selling the Granny are we ready to sacrifice the people who keep us fit and well for a bit of profit?“
For me this is why I’m completely happy to isolate and maintain social distancing for as long as it takes.
It’s all very well saying we should end the lockdown but the certain result is there will be huge numbers of very sick people requiring treatment by health and care workers.
We already know that people who come into contact with a very heavy viral load are much more likely to die and this puts many health and care workers at risk.
I’m personally not willing to sacrifice health and care workers who by virtue of their jobs have to take a risk the wider public would not themselves be willing to take.
I think the lockdown is a bit of a piss-take while a large portion of the workforce are still working on non-essential things. The 30 mile section of roadworks on the M1 was packed with workers in small groups, all being forced within a few inches of each other to hold conversations over the noise of the traffic. Also willing to bet they have to share transport to get to and from where they're parking their cars.
The companies responsible should be keeping their workers safely at home either on full pay or the furlough scheme. I'm pretty sure the M1 will survive 2 months.
Genuine critical workers are putting themselves at risk unnecessarily when the construction workers start arriving in hospital en masse.
What the coronavirus does to your body that makes it so deadly
COVID-19 is caused by a coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2. Coronaviruses belong to a group of viruses that infect animals, from peacocks to whales. They’re named for the bulb-tipped spikes that project from the virus’s surface and give the appearance of a corona surrounding it.
A coronavirus infection usually plays out one of two ways: as an infection in the lungs that includes some cases of what people would call the common cold, or as an infection in the gut that causes diarrhea. COVID-19 starts out in the lungs like the common cold coronaviruses, but then causes havoc with the immune system that can lead to long-term lung damage or death.
SARS-CoV-2 is genetically very similar to other human respiratory coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. However, the subtle genetic differences translate to significant differences in how readily a coronavirus infects people and how it makes them sick.
https://theconversation.com/what-the-coronavirus-does-to-your-body-that-makes-it-so-deadly-133856
Could be worse, we could be Dutch
BBC News - Coronavirus: Why Dutch lockdown may be a high-risk strategy
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52135814
BBC News - Coronavirus: Exercise out of the home 'could be banned' if people flout rules
Bloody marvellous, my 45 minute lunchtime cycle was the only thing keeping me sane
It was initially embraced by the Dutch government too, but then rapidly repackaged as a useful by-product rather than the main goal.
From the BBC Dutch article.
Exactly the same thinkig as the British government IMO, hence lockdown light.
then keep doing it and look after yourself.
besides, how many times have you picked up a fine for riding 3 abreast, jumping red lights, riding on pavements and the wrong way down one way streets. Apparently 'we' do that all the time.
Nice article that. But I am not wholly convinced by the inital immune system response. I had almost NO symptoms except a dull pain at the base of my lungs that felt a bit like indigestion. I then gradually lost oxygen saturation over about four days. The virus infects the alveoli sacs in the deep lung, shuts down surfactant and then gas exchange is reduced. Later, I am sure, pneumonia-like infitration of immune cells and a shift in coagulation status (classic shock symptoms) are serious complications. The rest is spot on, particularly using ACE2 as the viral entry point for an enzyme that regulates blood pressure. That may then block the function of this enzyme on the surface of cells. Science is learning the Biology as we go...
[TL:DR] COVID-19 symptoms of cough and temperature _may_ be signs that your body is fighting off the virus before it gets nasty and deep into the lungs. Absence of those signs, with an ache that feels like indigestion under the ribs might lead to more serious issues. You need to lubricate your lungs like your chain. Neither run well otherwise.
And you need to lubricate your lungs like your chain.
FINALLY… using terms we understand.
= ;87)
Seriously, your contributions are fascinating. Keep ‘em coming. Get well soon.
As posted a few pages back - looks like the repatriation flights will get my sister and family out of India. Good news.
What I'm struggling with is that there isn't to be a forced isolation...
And they are talking about driving 4hrs, flying Chennai to Dehli, stay overnight, then Heathrow, then a group of them driving up the country, dropping folk off at various places, stay somewhere overnight probably near my dad so they can see him (77 and big health issues), before heading to Moray where they have been offered a house for free...
They're making plans to meet up with friends 'nearby' in Moray and talking of being able to walk to the supermarket...
They're also faffing with how much baggage they can bring, including bikes...
For reference my sister is a nurse.
I'm glad they're getting out. I'm feeling like they are being totally selfish and unaware of the issues they are possibly causing. FFS.
What I’m struggling with is that there isn’t to be a forced isolation…
It’s much much cheaper to rely on people getting back to their own homes, and voluntarily isolating themselves once there. I don’t think they imagine anyone doing what your family is looking to do, and hopefully few are.
Never underestimate the power of stupid
Girl in office rings in sck. I have a temperature she says. Stupid manager says, Can you come in for the morning and we'll see how you feel at lunchtime, there's quite a lot to do.
Soon to be available, rocky mountain element in L, giant propel in M and. Roubaux in M flava also
I’m feeling like they are being totally selfish and unaware of the issues they are possibly causing
MOab - I think you need to be very, very clear that a lot of what they are proposing is in breach of lockdown guidelines, especially getting anywhere close to your father. If they want to see him, they can do it from 3 metres away
I’m guessing peak hospital demand will be at least a week ahead of peak “reported” deaths, as there is such a lag in the figures, plus admissions will tail off before deaths.
BTW, based on family COVID/TiRed, I think this virus is incredibly infectious. The unit is the household. If one of you in the household has it, then I think you all will either have it or catch it. Four in our house and a spectrum from mild to severe. None with any underlying conditions. The fittest has definitely been hit the hardest so far. I've had the who gets what bike discussion 😉 .
We already know that people who come into contact with a very heavy viral load are much more likely to die and this puts many health and care workers at risk.
Thinking about Nightingale vs that hanger photo Drac put up pages back. The hanger was brutally horrible but a lot less surfaces to clean. Nightgale may have dignity and privacy but it looks like a lot of touchy touchy surfaces.
BBC News – Coronavirus: Exercise out of the home ‘could be banned’ if people flout rules
You could still exercise people - it would really make it feel like a police state / prison. We have a lot of park run organisers / events companies - it would likely end up being street by street. You're out, you exercise, you're in. In much the same way as other business are providing solutions I'm fairly sure events one's could sort something sensible. It's only really the larger towns and cities that need it. Villages near me seem to have sorted themselves out. Of course this all assumes people will follow the rules and not go all great escape.
What I’m struggling with is that there isn’t to be a forced isolation
This!
My mate got back from New York last week (which has more deaths than UK?), he said they just landed at Heathrow & everyone got straight on tube
Colleagues returning to Germany & Italy both faced checks at airports
You’re out, you exercise, you’re in
Just like the 6 bell ends on road bikes who went passed me this morning.
I bet my pension they don't all live together.
Our lockdown is pushed out til 26th (certainly subject to another couple of weeks) but talk of letting non essential sectors resume activity from 9th, eg construction.
We locked down (no exercise) on 15th March and the death rate has fallen for a few consecutive days now, so you can probably translate that for the UK timeline.
Although the local/provincial infections and deaths were up yesterday.
While the deaths are going to be bad, I am starting to get concerned about the longer effects, all those who will have suffered lung damage are going to be needing extensive care and prophylactic treatment.
disclaimer - like tired I work for gsk and we are one of the leaders in respiratory drugs, but I am hoping that we do not see in increase in lung diseases
Yeah permanent lung damage is something which scares me more than death TBH.
I think if the 2 I would take the damage, but the potential level of illness as a result could be huge
So.. Im sure i've read recently somewhere that Matt Hancock said it was OK to drive a short distance to exercise?? Can anyone post me a link to this please
Would ongoing lung damage make people more susceptible to future "regular" flu in future winters, increasing death rates and NHS pressure even more?
Chatting with a health worker who reckoned it turns your lungs into a saturated sponge.
Normally lungs relatively dry and like a dry sponge air movement througj the sponge is fine
The antibody reaction to a deep lumg infection fills your lungs with fluid thst you cannot breathe through. Like a soaking wet sponge and you suffocate
Sounds grim
I guess it depends on the damage I guess, but you would assume any weakness in the lungs in the form of scar tissue or increased reactivity to stimulators would increase the risk of respiratory infections
My neighbours parents have just rocked up in their car and picked up the grandchildren for a day out.
It doesn't surprise me they share a non functioning brain cell between them.
I haven't been closely following what's going on in the UK over the last few weeks - so maybe this has been discussed already, but last night I caught up with a couple of friends on Facetime.
The two things they both seemed sure of were that the British government had no intention of trying to stop this thing, but wanted to give the impression that they did. Hence the "pretend lockdown" the other thing was that the new hospital in London wasn't a hospital at all, but a standby mortuary!
Possibilities? or do my friends need medication and a comfy room to stay in for a while?
singletrackmind
Member
Chatting with a health worker who reckoned it turns your lungs into a saturated sponge.
Normally lungs relatively dry and like a dry sponge air movement througj the sponge is fine
The antibody reaction to a deep lumg infection fills your lungs with fluid thst you cannot breathe through. Like a soaking wet sponge and you suffocate
Sounds grim
Aye that rings true, there's a guy that does the backend stuff on another forum I go on, basically came on to say good bye, that's his issue, lungs are just completely filled with fluid and are utterly gubbed. Heartbreaking.
The mixed and vague messages from the government has been a real problem. Telling people it's ok to drive a short distance to exercise is a license for everyone to drive to local beauty spots and parks. It's so dumb. The government is scared to set rules like a bad teacher.
It is potentially sensible to allow travel to exercise - if that's in a less crowded space that where you live
We shouldn't conflate that with morons taking the piss
I'd like to see clamping of cars at busy beauty spots - note attached saying "call this number - we'll release your car today but you'll have to wait unless there is an urgent reason for you having parked here"
That and sending a fire engine or maybe Boris' water cannon round the odd park/beach to soak a few groups now and again
Wouldn't need many, get it in the news - maybe escalate to crushing after a week or two more if it's still not heeded
maybe escalate to crushing after a week or two
Cars or groups of non-compliers?
Cars or groups of non-compliers?
yup
It is potentially sensible to allow travel to exercise – if that’s in a less crowded space that where you live
So they can mingle with people from miles around at the local beauty spot and the virus can be further spread?
So they can mingle with people from miles around at the local beauty spot and the virus can be further spread?
That’s people being thick and not understanding social distancing means, you can’t blame the government for the arrogant.