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rate of change in new cases in Sweden is scary!
Was wondering what the predicted infection rate for the uk is at the moment.
assuming that the real rate is somewhere around 10x actual cases then we are in excess of 300000 cases which seems low.
Not even convinced we’ve any sort of grip on how many mild cases there are.
That's not testing for you. If you want to be helpful, Kings College, London has a COVID-19 symptom tracker app which you fill in daily to report symptoms and help research:
https://twinsuk.ac.uk/our-research/covid-19/
China's data is so different to anyone elses even South korea and Japan.
That’s not testing for you.
Quite
So, Sweden, Herd Immunity Test patient zero. I’d say it’s scary but it’s all quite scary.
There’s a piece in the BMJ website today out CV testing for inbound travellers to China I think it was 4 in 5 positives showing no symptoms, at least at the point of testing. Small sample of around 160/170 individuals.
I’ve lost the link but can probably find it in my history tomorrow if anyone want it.
I have the app for tracking
slowoldman
SubscriberAnd yet today he has also said people should not go out in the nice weather this weekend.
Their messaging continues to be juts that little bit needlessly unclear... I caught "this advice isn't voluntary", if it's not voluntary it's not bloody advice is it, or guidance, it's instructions. Just sit down and get the words right and make it clear.
Exactly, you wouldn't think it would be hard....
Was wondering what the predicted infection rate for the uk is at the moment.
assuming that the real rate is somewhere around 10x actual cases then we are in excess of 300000 cases which seems low
Based on last week's estimates from the CMO, Scotland will be on around 200,000 - 250 000 at the moment. Overall UK figure will be 10x that, so add a zero to your figure.
5th richest nation in the world, apparently
https://twitter.com/EastCheshireNHS/status/1246116024480661505
Their messaging continues to be juts that little bit needlessly unclear… I caught “this advice isn’t voluntary”, if it’s not voluntary it’s not bloody advice is it, or guidance, it’s instructions. Just sit down and get the words right and make it clear.
This. The media are equally culpable. BBC News 'Breaking' ticker earlier was showing that the government were "imploring" the public to stay at home this weekend. What's wrong with 'instructing', 'telling' or 'directing'? Too many mixed and/or wrong messages from everywhere.
If nothing else, on a REALLY basic level there's still a LOT of people who need educating in what 2m looks like. Hell, describe it in feet, yards or cubits if it helps but just get the understanding out there.
(well aware that 2m might no longer be enough, but the idea still stands)
For stupid people the best way to describe a 2m distance is for them to imagine a dead relative lying on the floor between them and you.
The WHO recommend 1 metre
Hancock was on the news earlier providing detailed answers to questions on testing. Actually no he didn't, the smunt just gave another incompetent display and dismissed the questions as if they were not important. Lying shyster.
FFS, he makes Jeremy Hunt look good
I think this is worse though, maybe?
https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1245878992336556033
is this pandemic just exposing what a shitshow our society has become
Some good news. Reliable Antibody test is most likely one week away. That *will* be cheap, fast enough for mass testing. No mention of the 28 day delay from infection to detectable antibodies.
Proper game changer:
(Podcast is quite good, most of us will already know most of it, but there was new information.)
I'm gonna stay in this weekend apart from an exercise walk each day as I have since we were first told to. I'm sure the rest of STW will too:
The disease is still spreading. Staying home in our national effort is as crucial as ever. Stay at home to protect lives and do your part to tackle #coronavirus.
https://twitter.com/MattHancock/status/1246122731411853321
If nothing else, on a REALLY basic level there’s still a LOT of people who need educating in what 2m looks like. Hell, describe it in feet, yards or cubits if it helps but just get the understanding out there.
Maybe, but around my area nobody is going within 2m of each other. People are giving each other like 5 metres (where possible) and making a real show of it, on pavements going right out into the road. I've noticed grass/field is trampled either side of paths were people are doing it. I'm sure there are people going within 2m of each other but not through being unaware, just because there often isn't space or (very occasionally) because they don't GAF.
I think it’s exposing the issues of relying on strategically important manufacturing from overseas.
Once people get desperate they’ll always be desperate.
Some good news. Reliable Antibody test is most likely one week away.
I’ll believe that when it’s delivered
COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports are out for country and by local authority:
There is a noticeable spike around the weekend before the restrictions came in. Haven't looked to see if there were similar spikes in other countries just prior to their step up of measures.
FFS, he makes Jeremy Hunt look good
I may not have agreed with what Hunt wanted to achieve, but I think it is now clear that he knew his brief, is clearly intelligent, and would have done a far better job in either health or as PM than the current incumbents.
You don’t have to agree with people to recognise and respect competent leadership.
How are you feeling TiRed?
Maybe, but around my area nobody is going within 2m of each other. People are giving each other like 5 metres (where possible) and making a real show of it, on pavements going right out into the road
Same here and people are acknowledging it when you do it,I think it’s the new common courtesy you extend to others.
All we need to do is get the car drivers to stick to the limits as more people are wandering into the road and all the 20mph zones seem to have been unrestricted 🙂
I may not have agreed with what Hunt wanted to achieve, but I think it is now clear that he knew his brief, is clearly intelligent, and would have done a far better job in either health or as PM than the current incumbents.
Wasn't there plenty of MP's who came out and commented something along the lines of
we know Boris doesnt do detail but we are alongside him holding the steering wheel.
The man the myth is then elected as our PM and and promptly assembles a team with one single focus. A team - which if the rumour mill is to be believed - are in for loyalty to Boris. That has to have hurt the early stages of getting to grips with the virus.
Generally I'm still unimpressed with Boris - pretty please twice doesn't really cut. Thought the health secretary was better yesterday. I'm not convinced some politicians are on top of their brief most of the time - some will have had a very steep learning curve.
Europe 1 is back to the American report someone on here linked a week or so back about transmission by aerosols from breathing rather than just after someone coughs. If the report is right then just talking to someone is enough to catch the virus.
I think we can look forward to guidelines on wearing masks and distance between people to change if they're right and even if they're not; applying the precautionary priciple.
Thank you for asking. Had another wobble yesterday, so resting hard. Will give you some predictions for next week later. Then finish my paper. Then more rest.
@Edukator has anything been said in France on how long lockdown/restrictions are going to last? I know its probably not going to happen but my Morzine savings pot could be spent on a new frame
Reliable Antibody test is most likely one week away. That *will* be cheap, fast enough for mass testing
Are these the ones where Matt Hancock said we'd ordered a million antibody tests kits of?
If it's the same ones some bad news oob
The man lies so much I have no idea which lie to unpack first
https://twitter.com/mojos55/status/1246125962200219649?s=19
is this pandemic just exposing what a shitshow our society has become
At all sorts of levels. We're living through the legacy of Thatcherism and privatisation. Of squandering the income from North Sean oil that we could have used to build a genuinely inclusive, supportive state structure, by giving it to a small number of rich people and prioritising private profit over general well being.
And at a much wider level, it's torn off the veneer that hides the chaotic fragility of life and made it very, very clear that we're always vulnerable to random chaos no matter how many structures and services we build to create the illusion that we're safe.
Most of us don't live in an environment where we make life or death decisions - my mountaineering friends and ex-military ones who've seen action seem more able to understand the idea that risks are nuanced rather than binary even if/when they're scared. Mostly we don't. Stressed, frightened people make odd, panicked judgements because our bodies are full or fight or flight impulses.
Oh, and one other thing. Every year around 600,000 people die in the UK, but we've made a fine art out of hiding death away so it's almost invisible. Stuff like this makes that impossible and it's very, very uncomfortable as a result.
That's my very broad take on it anyway. YMMV.
At least end of April but more likely mid may. And it will be done in stages by region and age groups.
Tbf everyone is avoiding Matt Hancock in this video, but only coz he probably came out of quarantine too early
https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1246133104345067529?s=19
Are these the ones where Matt Hancock said we’d ordered a million antibody tests kits of?a
Have a listen for yourself.
Multiple firms in multiple countries are working antibody tests. The timeframe that the effectiveness of one of those tests could be confirmed as good enough is ~1 week.
Unlike the antigen test these are cheap, quick and production can be ramped up fast.
It's described as a game changer, and it blatantly is.
Found these graphs interesting, we'll have to see how the situation develops...
Purchased and ordered aren’t the same thing.
Surprised me with the difference between symptoms and not showing.
Seems there is a government advisor pushing for a re-think on herd; aptly named Mr Medley
A bit frightening.
We infect loads of people, most of whom, unlike a vaccine get symptoms. It's not just the deaths it's the incapacity. Even medium symptom person could be laid up for weeks, months... it's still going to trash lives. Then we have the general trauma of the way people die with this virus - the individual, the teams looking after them, the families. I'm not sure we're set up to deal with that much death and shrug it off.
Guess only time will tell if we are comfortable selling our own Granny for someone else's profit margins.
Where’s that from OAP?
Where’s that from OAP?
Sorry, image went up first just to check I actually got the hang of posting them. Have now edited the post to give the article.
Thank you
Government scientific adviser urging government to end lockdown. Because we do not have adequate resources in place for an exit strategy based on contact tracing and because we implemented all of this too late, I suspect that TiRed is correct and this won't be lifted until September.
To give Tories an idea of just how costly this is going to be, due to our failure to adequately prepare for this and have the resources in situ already for a viable exit stagey - the FT and the Guardian are running stories that the Bank Of England quietly thinks that we are headed for levels of unemployment that will soon be greater than the Great Depression.
dirtyrider
Queen being wheeled out to lock us down further?
Can't help but cynically think that's exactly what's going to happen (presumably based on a prediction that good weather elicits more muppetry this weekend).
Time to finally clear some space around the turbo in the garage...
While I happily accept that our government(s) left us ill prepared for this and started trying to act too late, I'm not sure any government except South Korea has done a huge amount better.
I want to see long term planning come out of this crisis, not short term, populist, party political point scoring.
I think Asia generally is doing better - we look average because our European neighbours are having a meltdown as well.
Anyway, here's an interesting read in the context of Coronavirus.
Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.
Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it’s something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt.
The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.
Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan."
In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson
FT and the Guardian are running stories that the Bank Of England quietly thinks that we are headed for levels of unemployment that will soon be greater than the Great Depression.
Might be one of the ironies of our situation that in trying to protect the economy over people greater damage was done. We're an island nation - it should have some advantages in controlling the spread of infection. I fear at the moment, if the money sees the Far Eastern economies racing away it will want to give chase and put pressure to get back to business in the UK.
I want to see long term planning come out of this crisis, not short term, populist, party political point scoring.
Not sure what we can do for long term planning as we still don't know what we are actually planning to move on from. Without a greater understanding of what the impact of the virus is on the nation we are at best pointing in a general direction.
Taleb was almost right once.
A broken watch is correct twice a day.
Gives you some perspective
Taleb was almost right once.
A broken watch is correct twice a day.
Gives you some perspective
I've just read the one book. Like any popular science/maths book, some of it seemed like lightweight opinion - some of it threw up some interesting questions.
Go on?
Talebs wiki seems to highlight some controversy, that makes for interesting reading though I guess.
Guardian also reporting that Neil Ferguson is suggesting we could be out of lockdown in weeks if we can behave ourselves this weekend.
Could this be a tipping point moment, or is it just me promising the kids a treat if they behave themselves and do their homework quietly. And then not delivering on the treat, but the homework's still done.*
(* I don't do this, I'm not that much of a git. Besides, they out negotiate me - treat first and then no homework)
im pretty stunned that a sizeable majority of the country, actually the world, have freely given up so much of their liberty so far.
practically every piece of communication now being made and recorded electronically, folk keen, no actually clamouring to sign up to a 'virus app' which allows full realtime location tracking of every phone holder with records being held indefinitely
we are already beyond "neighbours snooping on neighbours" - take a look in nearly any thread in here for finger pointing, assumptions and allegations of rule bending, supported by the kind of smearing we have got used to in STW Politics/Brexit threads
there are a lot of little hitlers jumping up and down (here and IRL), probably believing they are doing the right thing, inspired by a lot of fairly directionless media hype
Perhaps they want to help prevent all the unnecessary and avoidable lonely deaths? Don’t you?
blindly... no.
3k less deaths from respiratory disease so far this year, compared to a five year average?
anyone found the total deaths data on those terms?
Hmm only 2 weeks of lockdown and the ramp up of the let everyone out to save the Economy rhetoric seems to be starting again.
S.Korea seems to have shown that this can be managed without sacrificing the sick and elderly which seems to be the desire of a few.
the ramp up of the let everyone out to save the Economy rhetoric seems to be starting again.
I don't think it's rhetoric. It's a discussion that needs to be had. It's a fact that a depression worse than that in the 1930s will lead to more deaths and more hardship than this particular virus. The question is, how do you respond to that?
g again.
S.Korea seems to have shown that this can be managed without sacrificing the sick and elderly which seems to be the desire of a few.
South Korea had the good fortune foresight of starting from a better base, they were more prepared for this in terms of contact tracing, PPE and healthcare.
Hmm only 2 weeks of lockdown and the ramp up of the let everyone out to save the Economy rhetoric seems to be starting again.
I wondered whether this is being put about to encourage people to stay at home this weekend, by telling them that there is an end in sight, and not too far (relatively speaking) away.
If China is reopening/returning to work, then they must have a viable exit strategy, other than allowing everyone to catch the virus?
Using testing as a way out is looking increasingly unlikely.
It’s a fact that a depression worse than that in the 1930s will lead to more deaths and more hardship than this particular virus
Evidence please.
Also loving the "we're in lockdown, and less people are dying. Why are we in lockdown?" takes.
In the meantime, here is some reading on "economy vs lives":
https://twitter.com/julianHjessop/status/1246026143486095360
Which we will have to do.(tracing testing etc)
The naive complacency that these things happen to others and not us is er gone, these virus things do have a habit of coming back.
It’s a fact that a depression worse than that in the 1930s will lead to more deaths and more hardship than this particular virus
You might not actually be able to avoid the depression. Letting it rip through the population will do damage. I don't really think we should be taking that gamble.
For example: it would be fair to assume part of the price for let it burn is going to included a lot of health care professionals. Never mind selling the Granny are we ready to sacrifice the people who keep us fit and well for a bit of profit?
Queen being wheeled out to lock us down further?
I don't think the monarch would be used in this way. It's for government to make (and announce) policy. It'll probably be a "stiff upper lip, do your bit for the country" sort of thing.
I'm pinning my hopes on science coming up with some kind of treatment to mitigate the effects of infection as I'm not convinced a vacine will be forthcoming.
Hopefully in next month or 2 someone will stumble across some cocktail of existing drugs that massively reduces the impact it has on people.
Wishful thinking perhaps but it's comforting to know that the world's best minds are working 24/7 to find a solution
the more cases you have to deal with at any one time the more health workers you need and the more you will expose
This.
Wishful thinking perhaps but it’s comforting to know that the world’s best minds are working 24/7 to find a solution
I think we've all had enough of experts.
When this is done and dusted I think Gove, Boris, and co should crawl in sackcloth from Westminster to UCL, on to Oxford, back to Cambridge and all the other places to thank those 'experts' for digging them out.
Lot's of talk and China and South Korea having cracked it.
Have they?
Not everyone trust China numbers and we know they've outright lied about flu deaths for decades. Even if we do trust their numbers according to R4 Today the Chinese 'end of lockdown' means they are allowed out for 2 hours a day to do shopping. That's a pretty loose definition of end of lockdown. Again by definition very few people in China now have any resistance to CV. So where to they go next? Isolate themselves from the world until a vaccine is found?
South Korea: We do trust their figures and they don't even have a lockdown. But what is their next step? I've no idea what flights are allowed into South Korea but they have substantial US military bases and significant trade? Are they really able to antigen test everyone who enters the country? ...and if they do for how long, there's a world shortage of anti-gen tests so testing every entry to the country can't be practical. Or are they banning incoming travel until an antibody test comes along? Google isn't helping me with South Korea's exit strategy, anyone point me to a credible link to it?
Hopefully in next month or 2 someone will stumble across some cocktail of existing drugs that massively reduces the impact it has on people.
It's pretty clear an antibody test will be the first thing to arrive and will start to free people up to function normally. No doubt treatment will improve over time too. Also we'll learn more about the virus itself. I suspect the exit strategy for everywhere - (including South Korea and China) will be a gradual improvement of every aspect rather than a single silver bullet.
The world *will* end up with herd immunity.
@raybanwomble - have you read Nate Silver, "The Signal and the Noise"?
I've not read it, it has been gathering dust on my desk for several years but I may open it later as it has a section on pandemic flu
Guardian also reporting that Neil Ferguson is suggesting we could be out of lockdown in weeks if we can behave ourselves this weekend
He said this, end of may is another 6 weeks.
That moves us to a slightly more pessimistic scenario.
We still think things will plateau but we’ll be at quite high levels of infection for weeks and weeks rather than seeing quite a rapid decline as the type seen in China.
We want to move to a situation where at least by the end of May that we’re able to substitute some less intensive measures, more based on technology and testing, for the complete lockdown we have now.
Yup, he also said:
in a few weeks' time we will be able to move to a regime which will not be normal life, let me emphasise that, but will be somewhat more relaxed in terms of social distancing and the economy
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-lockdown-lifted-within-weeks-a4407041.html
I don’t think the monarch would be used in this way. It’s for government to make (and announce) policy. It’ll probably be a “stiff upper lip, do your bit for the country” sort of thing.
Possibly not, but exactly that message would nicely soften us up for a tightening of restrictions Monday or Tuesday...
Hopefully in next month or 2 someone will stumble across some cocktail of existing drugs that massively reduces the impact it has on people.
My day job. I’m doing that too. And I’m hopeful for hydroxychloroquine (it works but is not yet approved). I’d take it. The others I am less hopeful for. They were not screened to work against this virus, so guess what? You will need a lot of them to offset this lack of potency. Whether enough can be dosed will be the question.
HCQ turns down replication by working on the cell apparatus not the virus.
Cheers ElShalimo, I have not read it - I will order the book now!
I see these two like to have bun fights on the internet as well, so it should make for an entertaining read.
My day job
If you manage to find the cure for cornonavirus I think it's fair to say that everyone on the forum will chip in and by you a new bike of your choice..deal? 🙂
Daft question as I have no idea about these things, but I'm assuming drugs get administered at point someone clearly needs them, ie they are already in hospital
Why can't we administer drugs as soon as anyone gets symptoms and before their condition deteriorates? Is it because there just arent enough of them, or is it that drugs don't work like that?
If you believe China’s National Health Commission then 4/5ths of CV cases are asymptomatic. Caveats all over the place but we all need some good news.
Tom Jefferson, an epidemiologist and honorary research fellow at the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said the findings were “very, very important.” He told The BMJ, “The sample is small, and more data will become available. Also, it’s not clear exactly how these cases were identified. But let’s just say they are generalisable. And even if they are 10% out, then this suggests the virus is everywhere.
Jefferson said that it was quite likely that the virus had been circulating for longer than generally believed and that large swathes of the population had already been exposed.
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375
That's called cherry-picking. The science isn't settled and there is a variety of opinions and case studies with massive caveats and limitation attached to them. Consequently, us laypeople pick up one study which says something we want to believe and after ignoring the "if and if and if" reach an unwarranted conclusion.
If it's everywhere then why have such a small percentage of tests been positive (appreciate that they don't pick up on cured cases)
Likewise the only sizable contained population we saw was on that cruise ship, and the asymptomatic rate was around 50% no?
Oxford uni came out with something similar last week, about how it had already spread through 50% of the population. It was a theory that was flawed on so many levels..
A cruise ship is probably a much older population than society.
Guardian also reporting that Neil Ferguson is suggesting we could be out of lockdown in weeks if we can behave ourselves this weekend
The very clever actuaries at my work reckon that based on the imperial college updates they're getting, best case scenario we're going to be under some kind of lockdown for at least a year, worst case it will be 18 months😭
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">lockdown for a year isn't going to happen due to all of the issues discussed to date.</span>
Actuaries are often doom-sayers, it's their job whether they be in pensions or insurance
Those same actuaries are probably foaming at the mouth as the do-nothing and let people die scenario would probably cost the economy £50Bn. As it is we're in for a £1+Tn hit on the economy. I'd rather be poorer and live in a society where people are cared for and not abandoned to die alone.
If it’s everywhere then why have such a small percentage of tests been positive (appreciate that they don’t pick up on cured cases)
Likewise the only sizable contained population we saw was on that cruise ship, and the asymptomatic rate was around 50% no?
Well I'm not saying it's everywhere... [1]
...but if you're asking me why so few tests are positive it's because the only test available is the antigen test and that picks up CV for the vanishingly short period of time while the virus is live in the body.
Mind you, I also regard the 50/50 ratio on the ship and the 10-90 ratio in the study of the Italian town as good news as well.
So the evidence you cite, along with this study offer us some small hope that we might have a pleasant surprise and find more of the hard yards have been done than we realized. But yes, probably not everywhere probably and not everyone.
[1] Clearly we haven't all had it - there can't be *that* many asymptomatic cases or there would be far more symptomatic.
Watford General closed it's doors to all emergencies as running out of oxygen
The very clever actuaries at my work reckon that based on the imperial college updates they’re getting, best case scenario we’re going to be under some kind of lockdown for at least a year, worst case it will be 18 months
Personally I think that's wrong for some (most/all?) European Democracies because there will be widespread civil disobedience long before 18 months. Plus IMHO nobody in the world can lend Europe and the USA enough money to park our economies for 18 months.
...but they they know more than me....
Managed to watch a couple of minutes of Michael Gove on the Government's live update thing now before I had to turn it off.
I could never get tired of punching that imbecile.
Edukator:
Whether SARS-CoV-2 is aerosolized in everyday settings is still unknown and up for debate. Some experts, such as Dr. Allen, believe that it could be happening. Others are more skeptical of the idea given that infected people only infect two to three other people on average. If each COVID-19 patient were creating infectious clouds of SARS-CoV-2 wherever they went, some experts would expect the patients would infect far more people on average. Measles, for instance, has been associated with airborne transmission for decades and each measles patient, on average, may infect 12 to 18 people—or more. There’s even evidence the measles virus can disperse through ventilation systems.
sauce ( with additional links )