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If your genetic makeup has strong correlations to the silk road it looks like you will do much less well. Also, some very marked racial differences within the UK victims when compared to the population at large that have not yet been shared publicly.
be very interesting to see that, silk road genetics are themselves a mixture of signatures, so would need further detail
but youd consider that countries at heart of silk road, kazahksatn , uzbekistahn etc would be very hard hit?
https://bmcgenet.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12863-014-0131-6/figures/1
don’t know if this was posted before but an interesting report on the balance between excess deaths due to the virus vs deaths due to the subsequent economic harm
Deaths and economic harm where? In an interconnected world it is ridiculously Trumpian to weigh only UK/British/white-middle-class deaths and economics !!
Anyway Darren with 1 “r”… he’s a crank
Lolz.
@TiRed when you publish (and link on here) can you give us a dummies abstract. Not sure academic papers allow for that but you know your audience.
Interesting google data article on how google have tracked public mixing using google maps.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52138076
Caution, may offend people sensitive to big brother monitoring schemes.
I note the spike in grocery visits around 20th Mar, correlating directly with The Great Arse Wipe Shortage of 2020.
don’t know if this was posted before but an interesting report on the balance between excess deaths due to the virus vs deaths due to the subsequent economic harm
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654
I talked about the Venn diagram having substantial overlap before, but apparently Neil Ferguson suggests up to 2/3 (remember, about 50K people die every month ‘normally’), whereas a 6.4% decline in the economy will create the same impact due to poverty, life expectancy, etc.
I’m glad it’s not me that has to balance that equation.
Thanks.
For people wondering why test kit is so hard to source there's a really detailed article from a German newspaper that explains the problems with sourcing the materials for the antigen testing:
"These aren't just any random chemicals that can be mixed together," Streeck says. "We need enzymes that are produced through biological processes by cells or yeasts. Such complex processes "can't be ramped up at will on short notice."
But the biggest bottleneck at the moment isn't even due to the lack of reagents, with which the genetic material of the coronavirus can be specifically detected, says Hendrick Borucki from the Bioscientia laboratory network. There's also a shortage of the substances that can be used to break open the virus envelope and isolate the genetic material for the actual test. Other laboratories complain that even plastic pipettes or carrier plates that are calibrated for the analytical instruments are becoming increasingly difficult to obtain.
Also a suggestion for a cunning way to make the limited tests available go further with a kind of quasi-binary search idea:
Instead of individually testing 10 people with limited risk of having contracted the coronavirus, their samples could be "pooled" and analyzed together. When the result is negative, then nine tests have been saved. If the result is positive, individual tests can still be performed.
Interesting google data article on how google have tracked public mixing using google maps.
It would be interesting to see their data for how Cheltenham Festival, Stereophonics in Cardiff and Liverpool - Atletico Madrid helped spread the disease.
I'm not sure google would be able to release that kind of information. Specific locations is getting a bit "personal data". Maybe. IANA lawyer.
For certain, there was a whole bunch of dithering and delay going on that week by our stellar cabinet, and helped it did not.
The passport is currently a fantasy.
It does throw up some interesting situations - suddenly the potentially immune become an asset. It may get people back to work, it might not be the type of work people were expecting. People might find they are thrown into the dirty jobs to protect the higher skilled uninfected on the front line.
Again this is all random conjecture.
Presumably, you can still transmit the virus even when immune?
Presumably, you can still transmit the virus even when immune?
Not virus 'manufactured' by you. Obvs if you get virus on your hands from a door handle you can still move it about but your body no longer 'makes' new virus.
Yeah, that's what I was getting at though.
It does throw up some interesting situations – suddenly the potentially immune become an asset. It may get people back to work, it might not be the type of work people were expecting. People might find they are thrown into the dirty jobs to protect the higher skilled uninfected on the front line.
I think this is absolutely spot on. If you are a banker or something and get your immunity badge, are you really like to roll up your sleeves and get on with helping out key workers in healthcare, or try to get out of it? Some people might, but the selfishness I have seen in London (mostly) and the UK (more generally) makes me think that people will really try and avoid it.
I’m not sure google would be able to release that kind of information. Specific locations is getting a bit “personal data”. Maybe. IANA lawyer.
I don't see why they can't - I mean you can get location data in Google Analytics to a certain extent. You don't need to have individual data, just look at where the phones went, you could anonymise this to the boundaries of local authorities as per PHE, and then compare this to reported cases over time in each:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
Somewhere up in this thread there is a video demonstration of someone doing this in the US for Spring Break in Miami.
Step by step of the Covid plan.
https://intelligence.weforum.org/topics/a1G0X000006O6EHUA0?tab=publications
Also a suggestion for a cunning way to make the limited tests available go further with a kind of quasi-binary search idea:
Instead of individually testing 10 people with limited risk of having contracted the coronavirus, their samples could be “pooled” and analyzed together. When the result is negative, then nine tests have been saved. If the result is positive, individual tests can still be performed.
The problem with pooled testing is you mess up your limit of detection. If one positive (or more) is in effect made negative by dilution with true negatives, then all you've done is miss people with the virus.
Not saying it can't be done, but you might need a better understanding of the test kits than we currently have.
Matt
Just went to Morrison's for the shopping. Controls in place to limit the number of people in the shop and people were generally keeping their distance well.
However, I watched the guy who collects the trolleys move a few trolleys with bare hands. He then stopped to pour what looked like some peanuts into his bare hands, then put the handful of peanuts into his mouth.
torsoinalake
Member
don’t know if this was posted before but an interesting report on the balance between excess deaths due to the virus vs deaths due to the subsequent economic harmI can’t believe the BBC are pushing this horseshit.
It's not horseshit, do people not understand that basically stopping the economy will have a drastic effect?
These things really do need to be considered.
Keep seeing daft meme's like the meteor coming and a dinosaur going oh shite the economy, aye amusing, but the dinosaurs didn't feed, clothe, house and run their health services on an economy.
The world wide impact of lockdowns will be massive.
The world wide impact of lockdowns will be massive.
The world wide impact of people getting sick and dying will be massiver.
Convert - talking about genetic blood clotting issues. Do you mean people who’s blood can’t clot, or clots too much?
Massive perhaps, but massive positive or massive negative?
Takign Paris as an example we've already saved a lot of asthma and road deaths. The lack of benzine ring polution should drop the cancer deaths in a few years time. People are thinking more about their health, they're eating better and I've never seen as many joggers go past my house (I'm not one of them I run around the garden). They're less stressed by work which should help heart disease.
Then there are the long term positives. Will people change their holiday, home working and lifestyle habit which wil help the climate emergency and thus save lives in the geographical zones hardest hit by climatic change? Every airline that goes bust is great for planet earth and the vast majority of poor people who don't fly or benefit from mass tourism.
I think more wil be spent on health care long term, Macron has promised as much. That's good for quality of life. I think there wil be a drive fro countires to be more autonomous in terms of supply - less third-world sweat shops and more local jobs.
Going back 60 years households used to live happily on the income from one earner (we still do). That means a lot in terms of quality of life. If jobs go is it really such an issue? I think not so long as wealth is distributed moor evenly - see Pickety.
This is going to influence people's priorities and hopefully it'l make SUVs and Facebook bragging about where people fly to for the weekend a little less of a priority than being in a nice environment at home.
You see, you can spin it any way you want.
@swedishmatt and @convert
Those findings would correlate with early data that suggested those with type O blood were less represented in the death stats than those with other blood groups such as A or B
Rob (blood type A)......
Keep seeing daft meme’s like the meteor coming and a dinosaur going oh shite the economy, aye amusing
Ironic I think, because the meteorite didn't kill many dinosaurs directly, it destroyed the systems on which they depended which in their case was food chains. In our case it's our economy.
Convert – talking about genetic blood clotting issues. Do you mean people who’s blood can’t clot, or clots too much?
Can't clot apparently.
Those findings would correlate with early data that suggested those with type O blood were less represented in the death stats than those with other blood groups such as A or B
Yes - forgot that bit.
Going back 60 years households used to live happily on the income from one earner (we still do). That means a lot in terms of quality of life. If jobs go is it really such an issue?
Of course it is because people still have existing liabilities. Adjustments such as you describe need to be done over a generation, not in a month.
And it's the excess money that drives growth in economics, technology, science and everything else. If everyone's money goes purely on food there's no excess. And people's ability to enjoy life is diminished. Of course people were 'fine' in the old days but now the cat has been let out of the bag. People will look at the fun their parents had, or the stuff they did when they were kids, and want to do the same again and if they can't it will result in unhappiness - despite the fact that their grandparents were happy not having done it.
In the 'good old days' the everyday working classes knew not to expect to do things like travel or have expensive hobbies that the middle and upper classes did, which is how they got by on one income. Working classes 'knew their place'. This has been considered undesirable. That's not to mention the inherent gender inequality of the times.
I listened to a very interesting interview with a lady running a 20 year study into stimulation, boredom & isolation. Her view is that we need a bit of boredom, and removal from the constant search for stimulation. This actually drives individual creativity.
Not if we are all on stw or netflix. We need the net to go down too...
I'm bored out of my brain. I'm watching movies/Netflix etc but about 50% of it goes in
It doesn't help that my job is always outside and quite social. God knows how I'm going to get through if it's extended for another 3 weeks. Nor am I sure how much work they'll be if it's extended, the developer whose site I'm currently on are in a world of trouble with this lockdown add to that a shortage of bricks in the UK (that started a couple of months ago) and they could hit a perfect storm and go under
I'm still in hospital but feeling much better. There had been a few dark days over the past week but I managed to keep out of ITU. I'm off O2 this morning for the first time to see how my lungs get on, if all okay them I may go home over the weekend. That is not the end of it though, going to be a journey getting lungs working again and I've lost a remarkable amount of muscle and strength. I feel about 150yrs old. It's been utterly horrible.
This might actually encourage me to do more programming, but I strongly think it wil just end up with me doing more work and less exercise as I try to justify the time away from my comfy chair.
Thanks for the update Frank. Sounds bloody awful. I had pneumonia in my 40s, and felt very much like you do now, I imagine. You will build fitness again over the next few months, so don't lose hope.
they could hit a perfect storm and go under
I think that's a third of UK businesses at the moment. 🙁
Glad you are doing better frank. And I’m writing this from my bed having just had the same shortness of breath as Tuesday. Bizarre. No cough, no temperature, no real pain. Just dyspnoea and muscle weakness. Breathing hard to get the sats up.
Take care. I know others who have been previously fit and young who have been the same. #notInfluenza. And in some, it is not like any other disease I am aware of, and not pneumonia.
Quick test results if you feel light headed. Squeeze a nail and see how long it takes to come back to red. Less than 2 seconds is good.
https://medlineplus.gov/ency/imagepages/9154.htm
Just to dial back a bit, the bit of the BBC article that I have a particular grievance with is the 'well, they would have died anyway' bit. Christ alive, such lazy thinking.
And yes, policy choices are going to impact our welfare. Both now in the immediate issue of controlling the virus, and when we eventually have better understanding of how we can start to rebuild our economy (which we won't be doing in isolation). Let's maybe not go for austerity this time?
The world wide impact of people getting sick and dying will be massiver.
Dying of what though? That's the point, balancing deaths from Covid19 in excess of what would be expected as 'normal', vs dying of other things caused by the reduction in the economy and living conditions.
Elsewhere I read an article suggesting 17K people died in the UK last year (maybe 2018) due to fuel poverty and being able to keep their houses warm and dry. Again, some of those will cross over with the elderly who would have died anyway, but death due to 'Covid19' will not be solely due the the immediate effect of the disease.
I mean, at extreme if someone can't cope with the thought of extended lockdown and commits suicide due to mental health breakdown. Is that a life saved by the lockdown because the virus itself didn't get them?
Presumably, you can still transmit the virus even when immune?
Not virus ‘manufactured’ by you. Obvs if you get virus on your hands from a door handle you can still move it about but your body no longer ‘makes’ new virus.
Was just going to say a similar thing, you can move it about as you become just another surface.
I think there was an article in either Indy of Huff post this morning about passports - half caught it on the morning news conveyor but haven't had a chance to read.
Frank, keep going you're going to get through this, steady as she goes is the best way for a triumphant return.
…the bit of the BBC article that I have a particular grievance with is the ‘well, they would have died anyway’ bit. Christ alive, such lazy thinking.
It’s not confined to talk pieces like that. My aunt is in charge of nursing at a care home… the ‘help’ and messaging they are receiving is very much along these lines.
but death due to ‘Covid19’ will not be solely due the the immediate effect of the disease.
You could say the same about Ebola or any infections disease, even cancer.
Christ alive, such lazy thinking.
I'm not sure the concept of excess deaths is lazy thinking. Isn't it the standard way of measuring the impact of all serious diseases?
do people not understand that basically stopping the economy will have a drastic effect?
Yup.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think
The moral debate is not lives vs money. It is lives vs lives.
I don't think the nations of the world can act much differently to how they are over CV but people need to get away from the idea the the economy is somehow an abstract optional thing. The economy is what delivers essentials to all of us.
Loving Molegrips's Dinosaur comment: Economy to us == Habitat to dinosaurs.
Economy to us == Habitat to dinosaurs
Could equally be Environment. Interesting analogy all the same.
I’m not sure the concept of excess deaths is lazy thinking. Isn’t it the standard way of measuring the impact of all serious diseases?
Except the author isn't measuring, he's speculating based on models that suit his argument.
Could equally be Environment. Interesting analogy all the same.
Yup Environment would have been better choice of word for lots or reasons.
We wreck the environment to the point where we can't grow make the stuff we need and we're ****ed. You could dismiss that as 'damage to the economy', and it certainly would be. It says something about how insane rich we are that we consider the economy as a way of getting needless crap to ourselves and forget that it provides the basics too.
Except the author isn’t measuring, he’s speculating based on models that suit his argument.
That's not the issue you commented on. You specifically said[1] that considering excess deaths is lazy thinking and that's what you were being picked up on.
[1]
…the bit of the BBC article that I have a particular grievance with is the ‘well, they would have died anyway’ bit. Christ alive, such lazy thinking.
I’m not sure the concept of excess deaths is lazy thinking. Isn’t it the standard way of measuring the impact of all serious diseases?
No one has a problem when we talk about seasonal flu deaths, which iirc are excess deaths?
Way too much emotion and sensitivity on the issue at the moment. Once the pandemic and hysteria is over, reviews and future planning will have to be based on cold hard analysis, and that will be excess deaths, including deaths due to lack of capacity for otherwise curable illnesses and injuries.
And I'm saying that in the full knowledge that I, or my loved ones, could be among the statistics, but that doesn't change how the analysis needs to be done.
Glad to hear you are on the mend Frank. Here’s hoping your return home this time will be for the foreseeable.
If you wouldn’t mind saying, and totally understand if you don’t want to, But would you mind saying what blood group you are, see if there is anything in those blood group articles
( and yes I know a statistical pool number of 1 is poor stats)
That’s the UK with now more deaths than China 🙁
TiRed
SubscriberGlad you are doing better frank. And I’m writing this from my bed having just had the same shortness of breath as Tuesday. Bizarre. No cough, no temperature, no real pain. Just dyspnoea and muscle weakness. Breathing hard to get the sats up.
Take care. I know others who have been previously fit and young who have been the same. #notInfluenza. And in some, it is not like any other disease I am aware of, and not pneumonia.
Quick test results if you feel light headed. Squeeze a nail and see how long it takes to come back to red. Less than 2 seconds is good.
https://medlineplus.gov/ency/imagepages/9154.htm/blockquote >
That's an interesting check and one I can relate to, when my wife was dying of aspiration pneumonia last September I noticed how white her nails were when her sats dropped below 70%.
Just checked mine and they return to red in 1/2 second.
Good to hear you are bouncing back Frank
Hysteria?
3,605 UK deaths according to that worldometer site.
According to TiRED doesn't than mean the lockdown isn't working?
No that’s a misinterpretation of what he said
That’s the UK with now more deaths than China
Deaths per Million population (which is the only way to meaningfully compare countries AFAIC) China are one of the least affected countries in the world and the UK overtook China ages ago, just like everywhere else:
https://tinyurl.com/CVDeathsPerMillion
Take a look at China's Flu deaths as well. They are minisclue.
Deaths per Million population (which is the only way to meaningfully compare countries AFAIC)
That would be true if China were not a huge heterogeneous country where what happens in one part may not have any effect on what happens in another part. Which is just to say that whether a country has more or fewer deaths than China is not very illuminating.
Or believable.
That would be true if China were not a huge heterogeneous country where what happens in one part may not have any effect on what happens in another part. Which is just to say that whether a country has more or fewer deaths than China is not very illuminating.
Agree. China is an Empire really and comparisons with other countries make little sense, everywhere is reasonably unique. BUT *if* we are going to compare, let's do it on some kind of equivalent terms. Otherwise Andorra looks like a superb place to visit to avoid CV...
Or believable.
Cynic! 😀
But would you mind saying what blood group you are, see if there is anything in those blood group articles
( and yes I know a statistical pool number of 1 is poor stats)
Also, please send a faecal sample ASAP to Singletrack Towers for analysis.
Way too much emotion and sensitivity on the issue at the moment
Without lockdown, it seems reasonable to assume that 1000 plus people would be dying of COVID-19 induced respiratory failure per day in the UK, and that would go on for months. How should that be treated? We are already seeing 500-600 per day with seemingly only a fraction of the population infected.
That’s the UK with now more deaths than China
I would expect reported deaths in China is different from actual.
According to TiRED doesn’t than mean the lockdown isn’t working?
These are mostly people infected before lockdown.
In other news, aside from my own porch based 24hr Parcel quarantine it seems the Hermes couriers are told to give instructions to wash your hands after handling the parcel - shouted from a distance of course. Congrats to them for that practical and thoughtful measure.
Just had the front door (to workplace) flung open, Amazon parcel lobbed inside & delivery guy legged it like a special forces soldier clearing a room 😂 Didn't even see what courier it was. Good thing it wasn't fragile 😃it seems the Hermes couriers are told to give instructions to wash your hands after handling the parcel – shouted from a distance of course.
According to TiRED doesn’t than mean the lockdown isn’t working?
Not quite, it means that the evidence is not statiitically signicant. If it hits my mean (rather than lower limit), then that would suggest no change.
Less than 3700 wiuld have been GOOD news. The number is NOT bad news, just little to report, as you were, if you like. Keep on.
Deaths per Million population (which is the only way to meaningfully compare countries AFAIC)
I model total deaths, but have population in there as well. It's not obvious what the population scale _should_ be. Obviously if an epidemic is located in Wuhan and does not really spread, the denominator might be 10mn. My analysis adjusts for this properly. It is a nuisance parameter in the model, so one like to "log them away" 🙂
I had your 3700 in mind, wasn't sure which day it was. Still tragic for families affected, but could have been a lot worse.
Any figure for next week to keep an eye on?
Hancock has moved to this being an international response, not just a national one. An acknowledgement that this is about to look very bad I feel.
Good clear message about staying at home this weekend, whatever the weather.
Good that the nurses who have paid the ultimate price were spoken about in such strong terms as well. We owe them.
STAY AT HOME
PROTECT THE NHS
SAVE LIVES
“Stay at home, for them.”
36 & 39 years old.
TiRed - sounds like your trial made the No10 Press Conference!!
Good clear message about staying at home this weekend, whatever the weather.
The BBC news has just said that Matt Hancock has said driving for five minutes to get to place to exercise for your once a day is OK. That would suggest a mile or so would it not.
Before you ask, I won’t be doing this but then I am extremely fortunate that I can walk from my door and be on a footpath in about 100m
What's the endgame here TiRed? We're only slowing the infection rare with the lockdown measures right?
Queen being wheeled out to lock us down further?
Queen being wheeled out to lock us down further?
Lets hope so.
What’s the endgame here TiRed? We’re only slowing the infection rare with the lockdown measures right?
I don't do those predictions 😉 In truth, I suspect a staggered start-up from September when schools return. Staggered for society, with controls on wider movement would be my recommendation. That is Neil Fergusson's job, becuase by then their model will be better calibrated. My modelling is really for when you don't know much. Theirs is to predict when you do.
In between is life!
I think the key metric here to measure the success of the lockdown is number of confirmed cases assuming we don't change the scope of testing. We're some way off the lockdown impacting the number of deaths. If the lockdown is having meaningful impact I'd expect to see the number of cases per day reducing in the next couple of days. Unfortunately it held steady at a high for 4 days, then increased again for the next 3. Due to lags in data collection over weekends it will be Tuesday or Wednesday next week before there's any chance of that stat improving.
There are other metrics. For example the number of people phoning le 15 is now dropping in eastern France and beds are being freed off as fast as they're being filled. It depends on whether the people who know these things are allowed to communicate them.
@franksinatra great news. Keep on improving fella.
Sounds like you already know to not rush your recovery.
I have a mantra "when you think you are ready to come back, give it another week".
What’s the endgame here
Stack the chips on the square marked 'vaccine' and pray? Buy time with on/off lockdowns? Hope the end result is 'herd immunity'?
Or this - testing and contact tracing at a local level to control spread:
Truth be told I wonder if the horse has bolted for the test n trace method? Clearly we didn't have the will nor the resources a few weeks ago.
The BBC news has just said that Matt Hancock has said driving for five minutes to get to place to exercise for your once a day is OK.
And yet today he has also said people should not go out in the nice weather this weekend.
And yet today he has also said people should not go out in the nice weather this weekend
I take that to mean the beach, park, visiting relatives and friends ect ect. Not your daily excercise, work or shops if needed.
whats the reason for the low recovery data for the UK ? is just slack case recording or something else
Insufficient testing, if your not testing mild cases it will look worse.
Not even convinced we’ve any sort of grip on how many mild cases there are.