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I guess I’m about to find out if there’s a benefit for needing a long spoon in Fife.
I do fit in, to be fair.
why do the government keep making shit up!?!
because the last 4 years set a precedent which they seem determined to follow?
because the last 4 years set a precedent which they seem determined to follow?
Perhaps the nudge unit has a very limited play book:
We have to Brexit - or the people will riot
We have delay containment - or the people will riot
Yes it's a gross simplification but there is discernible trend.
At the moment you can't fail to be impressed at the way some things are coming together now. Problem is in nudge land it's likely to be wait for the national pride, hold onto the Brexit and we'll set sail with minimal resistance. If people didn't play things for their own ends we wouldn't have Spiv's, black marketeers or the Weatherspoons situation.
Given the leader sets the culture and Boris Johnson has definitely got form for being on manoovers for his own end. It would be nieave to think there isn't some exploitation on the go.
Given that there seems to be some comments about Sweden, I thought I should post a view from this side of the nordics. Disclosure: I live in Stockholm and work in the middle of the city.
So, things here are gearing up to Påsk (easter) and it is traditionally the last big skiing weekend of the year with people generally heading out to paces like Idre, Åre (hej Howsyourdad1!) and Sälen to pick up the last of the snow. This has been recommended against by the government, but not banned and the advice was to have a lot more space on things like queues for the lifts (yeah right). Yesterday I heard that Skistar had basically shut their resorts ( https://omni.se/skistar-stanger-alla-sina-svenska-skidanlaggningar/a/Qobylq) so it looks like resort owners are taking decisions for the people too.
Outside my window today is a förskol, filled with [generally] happy small kids. I live in an area with many of these and they are basically still open. Life seems to be almost the same round here, just a little quieter.
As far as work is concerned, we have been told to work from home if you can work from home. I know of some people that are still going in to the office, some because they have to (I work in a regulated industry) but some because they "don't like working from home". I know of other people, generally the younger ones, that are playing down the risks because they are more able to fight it off and more likely to have some sort of immunity sooner. Public transport is still used and still busy, just less crammed. I've never really used it, so can't comment myself.
The biggest news is that System Bolaget, the state monopoly for alcohol, is running reduced hours. This protects their staff but still allows people a small window to get booze which is apparently what people need right now. I'm just glad I put on a batch of IPA the other week. By the time my last lot of beer runs out, my "Isolation IPA" should be conditioned and ready to drink.
why do the government keep making shit up!?!
Gove is blaming China now for the lack of testing, saying they didn't have time to ramp it up because of the Chinese. Despite it being clear this was a nasty disease months ago and despite the government being warned we weren't prepared for a pandemic a few years ago.
All very odd; you'd think the senior civil servants overseeing all of this would've been on the ball this time around, given their key personal involvement in the Iraq WMD fiasco:
https://twitter.com/markcurtis30/status/1245246057711353856
why do the government keep making shit up!?!
Gove is blaming the Chinese now, saying they didn't give us enough warning - despite the fact that they gave us months and the government were warned years ago we weren't prepared for a pandemic.
A Naples hospital that has been entirely converted to dealing with COVID patients was just been shown on Sky News - the level/quality of the PPE and the infection control/clean room procedures (graded room cleanliness much like sterile manufacturing, proper separation between infected patients and everyone else, guards making sure that people don't accidentally enter contaminated rooms or corridors). that they are using throughout the entire hospital embarrasses what we seem to have the resources to do. It made the NHS Nightingale look like a joke.
China stepping up on asymptomatic cases
Looks like China have stepped up their approach to asymptomatic carriers.
Figure of around 25% quoted for asymptomatic infections, which seems to be quite common now, and close to the earlier S Korea figure of 20%.
I note Italian figures are continuing to look hopeful last night / today. Only 4% rise in cases, 7% in death count.
Spain for the first day shows under 10% increase in death count. Maybe they have turned the corner too.
proper separation between infected patients
I can't help thinking that the converted warehouses here aren't going to have much of any separation between patients and any kind of negative pressure environment is a pipe dream. I suppose the real losers there are the staff, if everyone else in the single big room has it.
I can’t help thinking that the converted warehouses here aren’t going to have much of any separation between patients and any kind of negative pressure environment is a pipe dream.
Looking at the pictures coming out of the Excel centre, they don't - it's a M*A*S*H style field hospital more suited to injured soldiers.
But yeah, go Britain - we're amazing etc. Boris is doing such a great job. What a lad.
Not in my prediction interval (your’s is too high). As I have previously stated, less than 3000 (on today’s model prediction) total this time next week would be good news. I only post what I would like it for good news.
I truly hope i'm wrong, and hope the 381 quoted yesterday was as a result of admin catching up reporting after the weekend, rather than an underlying increase.
Will the inhabitants of Wuhan ever be able to remove their masks? The limited pictures coming out of there don't inspire confidence.
Don't suppose any of their civilian population have a choice.
Anyone quoting their data, as gospel, seriously needs their head looking at.
But yeah, go Britain – we’re amazing etc. Boris is doing such a great job. What a lad.
OK genius, tell us what you'd do instead ?
Protect the staff and contain the virus within the temporary hospital in the way other countries have. This same field hospital approach has hit staff hard across Europe. The Chinese approach may well be costly to replicate here… but what happened “do whatever it takes”? We are relying on our NHS staff (current and volunteering to return) to risk taking a bullet, rather than build and install the kit that could keep them safe.
For the last 15 years going to China/japan wearing masks has always been commonplace there
Will the inhabitants of Wuhan ever be able to remove their masks?
Par for the course in Chinese city dweller's normal daily life anyway, thanks to pollution, says my pub-fact type uneducated opinion.
At the moment you can’t fail to be impressed at the way some things are coming together now.
While I'm seeing crowdfunding campaigns to get PPE for healthcare workers, I remain unimpressed.
Even Trump is now mocking the UK's handling of the crisis.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1245206635309600769
All that means is that Boris has been too ill/busy to praise Trump recently.
All that means is the orange one has a need to divert attention from the shit job he's doing.
Matt
the 381 quoted yesterday was as a result of admin catching up
It was - they said so on R4 PM and also in the daily conference at 5pm.
Which is good because there weren't 381 deaths yesterday, but bad because the previous four day in a row decline in deaths in the UK was not real. (Presumably the three day decline in deaths in other countries *was* real?)
The lesson I've learned is never check the numbers until *after* I've heard some credible analysis of them!
Now they're threatening health workers who speak out about dire shortages. It's imperative that others take up this baton and run with it. 3 of our 4 work in the NHS and one's a teacher and we're worried sick. Mrs is waiting on a delivery of fabric to start making scrubs.
Someone has told him that even saying “herd immunity” can result in a dangerous response from the public, as it runs counter to messages to stop/slow the spread. That he has taken on that advice and acted on it is a fantastic surprise. Much as it sticks in my throat… well done Trump!
what are the implications for war torn countries
I can't think of a word other than tragic.
Colleagues on covid wards are emailing me asking how they disinfect & reuse protective equipment, I have no clue either!
Even Trump is now mocking the UK’s handling of the crisis.
Despite "bury head in sand" being his own approach at the start of the US outbreak.
As usual, he will be excellent, anything else will be fake news.
That’s just a distraction from the Donald
No doubt as they’re staring down the barrel of a massive catastrophe and being made to look incompetent by they’re leading competitor on the global stage
But it’s April now, and apparently these things just go away in April according to the Donald himself
I had a wobble last night which has continued into today. I’ll need to go out and get supplies and short or long term the predictions are that everyone will get the virus over the next 12 months or so anyway.
i really don’t want to be in a C19 ward knowing I’ll never see my kids again without saying goodbye, nor do I want the same for my immunity compromised wife. Putting an outward brave face on for the family but for the first time I’m genuinely scared.
Sorry, but I had to get it out somewhere.
Kryton - we've all felt that in some way, better to speak out than bottle bit up.
Despite the genuine worries and doom mongering, the vast majority of people who catch it will not need hospital treatment. I appreciate your concerns for your wife are a different matter.
I've had a chat with the boy so if I get the virus then this is what I want to happen ... and didn't mince my words. He said he knew that I would say that and he was going to phone his sister to tell her.
It had to be said.
Kryton - no need to apologise. Had very similar thoughts and a wobble myself. Harder to keep perspective sometimes, esp as number of cases increases.
Serious wobble myself last night. Shortness of breath, tingling fingers, weakness in arms, muscle pain. The Covid action plan is:
Call 111 for triage
Called back by nurse
Called back by doctor
Put on assessment watch list
Called by Covid response team to house in the morning.
Slept OK. Then at 9:30 a van arrived with a lovely trainee paramedic (half way through first year of masters, wow what a training).
Took all SATs and I’m ok. When your resting HR on the bed is 70+ (race fit is 45), it’s unusual to say the least. You will know your bodies, and I know mine.
System is brand new from last week. It works in Windsor and is to keep you OUT of the wards. Will be the same elsewhere I believe. I would not be able to have such an assessment at my GP, and I don’t want to swamp A&E.
Sadly other bad stuff will still happen. If you have chest pain call 999. If you have confusion and severe shortness of breath, the same.
I was impressed. Take care Kryton. And be sure to rest properly. I’ve had serious influenza several times. High temp, shivers, aches, nausea. I had none of that this time., just the occasional peaky spike, headache on and off, but a slow And progressive construction that limited my oxygenation. Very insidious. I feel I’m coming out of it. Teen 2 had the cough and temperature, Mrs TiRed has cough. Son1 has nausea.
14 days inside coding models of the epidemic and finding drugs for it. Not so bad.
Now onto the nonsense about testing. The RNA viral test is one of the most significant biochemical reactions in history. It is not acid + base = salt + water.
It needs two “reagent” a primer that is the compliment of the bit of virus coding you want to find, and an enzyme that you need to blow up the DNA you make from the primer.
That enzyme is called polymerase. It’s not potassium permanganate and you make it in a bioreactor.
The world was set up for a level of DNA testing, so supply was set at that level (economics). Then suddenly, there is a global exponential demand for this and the special primer. So it’s going to be hard to source the “reagents”.
Nice explanation here https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/qz.com/1822596/all-the-coronavirus-test-materials-in-short-supply-in-the-us/amp/
Sadly scientific illiteracy leads to facile comments from politicians and journos. Maybe after this we’ll be a better informed society.
[TL:DR] virus test needs special biological enzyme and custom molecules, not just basic ingredients. Global supply is limited and you can’t just ramp up instantly. Imagine we all went paella mad, the rush on saffron exhaust supply. Same thing.
Get well soon TiRed. We need folk like you right now.
Take care of yourself TiRed and thank you for opening my eyes with your informative posts.
OK genius, tell us what you’d do instead ?
I’d have listened to the experts who war gamed a pandemic years ago – and foreign experts. Instead of a special adviser who somehow suffers from the Dunning Kruger effect and yet states he listens to the experts (judging by his blog, only those who he personally admires and conforms with ideologically). I wouldn’t have shown rank incompetence in responding to things like the European drive for ventilators either.
Take care of yourself TiRed and thank you for opening my eyes with your informative posts.
+1
and short or long term the predictions are that everyone will get the virus over the next 12 months or so anyway.
Cruise ships are a virus paradise. For that reason elderly people particularly are strongly advised to avoid them for the time being.
Indeed the Diamond Princesses made the news headlines when there was an outbreak of COVID-19 onboard and her passengers where stranded unable to disembark.
And yet less than 25% of those onboard the Diamond Princesses eventually tested positive for COVID-19. A remarkably low figure and all the more so when you consider the likely average age and probable health condition of those onboard.
For whatever reasons it would appear that catching COVID-19 is not inevitable.
Get well soon Tired.
I too am having a proper wobble, with an immune compromised wife (with history of chest infections and nights in ITU without warning), 78 year old father at the other end of the country with serious heart conditions and haemachromatosis, a mother in law recovering from cancer treatment and a sister and family stuck in a compound but due to be leaving India on 16th of April followed by two weeks enforced isolation in a Heathrow hotel...I cannot see all of us coming out of this so well. 🙁
TiRed - good to know your getting better and thanks for your informative fact-based posts.
Would it make you feel better that I’m currently reformatting 150k records so someone like you can make sense of them.
It’s a ******* ball ache if I’m honest 😆
Colleagues on covid wards are emailing me asking how they disinfect & reuse protective equipment, I have no clue either!
A random collection of thoughts.
Does heat kill the virus, could you:
Steam it with one of those hand held steamers?
If it's fabric could you hot / steam iron it?
Can you microwave it?
Wash / scrub in soapy water? Use nikwax or a liquid soap?
Good old mild detol?
For whatever reasons it would appear that catching COVID-19 is not inevitable.
Not many contagious diseases are.
Updated position.
Not great reading
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Total deaths now 2,352 a rise of 563
Also 44% of the additional test results are positive which shows that we are starting to struggle with testing capacity.
I’d have listened to the experts who war gamed a pandemic years ago – and foreign experts. Instead of a special adviser who somehow suffers from the Dunning Kruger effect and yet states he listens to the experts (judging by his blog, only those who he personally admires and conforms with ideologically). I wouldn’t have shown rank incompetence in responding to things like the European drive for ventilators either.
And how would you have funded it all in this mythical past ? Budget from schools/education ? Poice forces ? Ambulances ? Roads ? Armed forces ? or.... well..... errrrm, you tell me.
Why did none of the other countries prepare for this pandemic for the whole of their society ? How would you have persuaded our government to do so ?
TiRed – wishing you a speedy recovery
ernielynch
Member
and short or long term the predictions are that everyone will get the virus over the next 12 months or so anyway.Cruise ships are a virus paradise. For that reason elderly people particularly are strongly advised to avoid them for the time being.
Indeed the Diamond Princesses made the news headlines when there was an outbreak of COVID-19 onboard and her passengers where stranded unable to disembark.
And yet less than 25% of those onboard the Diamond Princesses eventually tested positive for COVID-19. A remarkably low figure and all the more so when you consider the likely average age and probable health condition of those onboard.
For whatever reasons it would appear that catching COVID-19 is not inevitable.
Slightly different context from real life though, on the cruise ship, they would have been isolated in their rooms, which is a parallel to the current situation, but they've all been disembarked from that ship now. That is a parallel that we can't match.
We can't disembark from this.
So the Diamond Princess is a limited analogy.
Didn’t Tired suggest it would be good news if we kept to below 2500 by Friday? Virtually there after today’s figures ☹️
Thank you all. Am feeling a lot better than yesterday. I’ll update my predictions on. Latest data I can also estimate detrended fluctuations from day to day. In an exponential process, big ups and big downs are not unusual.
One swallow is not a summer, but a thousand sparrows is a murmuration.
Don’t expect that kind of good news. Do hope for things to be no worse than in other European countries at the same point. We’re not really doing anything above and beyond what they did at the same point, so there’s little reason to hope it’ll be much, or any, better for us. But likewise, there is no obvious reasons why it should be worse.
Sadly scientific illiteracy leads to facile comments from politicians and journos.
This. The media should be sending their science and health correspondents to all media events. Their bog standard politics hacks aren't doing the job.
And yet less than 25% of those onboard the Diamond Princesses eventually tested positive for COVID-19. A remarkably low figure and all the more so when you consider the likely average age and probable health condition of those onboard.
That's based on an antigen test, not an antibody test. Without an antibody test we have no idea how many people on DP had it.
That’s based on an antigen test, not an antibody test. Without an antibody test we have no idea how many people on DP had it.
Do we even know what proportion of the ship's population were tested?
There is a big focus on testing, rightly for the key workers, to enable them to do their jobs, but until we are at the point of relaxing controls, using proper testing and tracing methods, actually knowing that little billy from down the street had it is not going to help in the short term.
Matt
It's probably been asked @TiRed but I take it you do stuff like this for a living?
The media should be sending their science and health correspondents to all media events.
As a health specialist reporter way back when in a previous life, there simply aren't enough of them to do this, and sitting in the no.10 briefing is not a good use of their time, especially as much of the subject matter really is political - economics/policing etc. Tbh they will be more effective working through copy and newswires at base, and shaping the output from there. What we need to do is stop the politics reporters insta-tweeting everything they come across. 🙂
but a thousand
sparrowsstarlings is a murmuration.
Get me an ornithologist, stat!
🙂
So are we now seeing the bounce from the big party weekend 10 days ago?
Or is that still to come?
It’s probably been asked @TiRed but I take it you do stuff like this for a living?
It is used to be my day job, yes. Now I find new medicines at GSK. But the mathematical skills are so complementatry that I have used my day job maths (some mathematical modelling and lots of high-end stats) with my previous epidemiology skills (mainly modelling rather than stats) I used when in the group at Imperial.
If I am honest, I think it has given me a perspective on modelling that I did not previously have in academia. I like to see APPLICATION of my technical work to medicine. And yes, I have invented a medicine that should be launched this year. None of my models ever had that impact. Although you might argue that the Imperial models have (I would not, actually).
PS I'm not a twitcher! Startlings Starlings... damn
Bloody hell, I heard about the French seizing the surgical masks but hadn't followed the details.
The French were concerned that desperately needed surgical masks not be allowed to leave the EU during the crisis. Sweden reluctantly accepted a ban on exports to countries outside the EU, in the mistaken belief that France, like Germany would lift their ban on internal EU transfers, as recommended by the European Commission.
On March 3rd, President Emmanuel Macron announced that he was requisitioning “all stocks and the production of protective masks” for distribution to medical personnel and French people infected with Covid-19.
One fifth of all surgical procedures in the EU use personal protective equipment imported from Asia by the Swedish company Mölnlycke. The company’s main distribution warehouse for southern Europe, Belgium and the Netherlands is in Lyon.
Mölnlycke’s entire stock of an estimated six million masks was seized by the French. All had been contracted for, including a million masks each for France, Italy and Spain. The rest were destined for Belgium, the Netherlands, Portugal and Switzerland, which has special trading status with the EU.
563. Deary me. Quite a jump from two days ago.
Probably bang on track for the fallout, given the incubation delay plus delay until hospitalisation is around ten days, and we are only testing hospitalised cases now.
If you average out the last few days the percentage will likely track steady. I suspect something caused some lag in the numbers.
An anesthetic shortage is the next supply issue according to Europe 1. You can't use ventilators without them and there are not many days of supply left, they're already reusing part-used doses that are normally thrown away as they can't afford to waste the dregs.
If you average out the last few days the percentage will likely track steady. I suspect something caused some lag in the numbers
average % over the last week was 26%, lowest 15%, highest 34%... todays, 31%
oh, and
deaths outside hospitals to be included in UK tally for first time
every tuesday will now include previous weeks 'outside hospital' numbers, so will always be larger
Do we even know what proportion of the ship’s population were tested?
Over 3000 were tested for COVID-19, some more than once.
Mölnlycke’s entire stock of an estimated six million masks was seized by the French. All had been contracted for, including a million masks each for France, Italy and Spain. The rest were destined for Belgium, the Netherlands, Portugal and Switzerland, which has special trading status with the EU.
WTF
PS I’m not a twitcher! Startlings Starlings… damn
You're poorly, we'll let you off - confusion / disorientation is on the symptom bingo.
So are we now seeing the bounce from the big party weekend 10 days ago?
Would that partially explain the lower growth rate in Scotland? (Only 16 today but 547 across the rest of the UK). If so, that might mean some good news to look forward to over the next few days as the effect is replicated.
Interesting to see Scotland's numbers being lower. Their population is about a 10th of the others on that graph, which are all very similar.
Wishful thinking - Could it be the beginnings of reaching saturation/a certain amount of herd immunity?
Official cases and deaths still a tiny fraction of population though...
To be lighthearted for a moment... Clearly cabin fever is setting in - our morning meeting this morning.
Wishful thinking – Could it be the beginnings of reaching saturation/a certain amount of herd immunity?
Unlikely. We're nowhere near saturation in any part of the UK. Estimates of % who have 'had it' and who may contribute to herd immunity are in the low single digits. There will be English regions with similar growth rates to Scotland. At the moment the epidemic is being fuelled by London and the West Midlands.
I had a brief flicker of hope when I looked at the drop in numbers over the weekend/Monday, it's only natural, but there's no way any of us is getting off that lightly.
To be lighthearted for a moment…
Am Dram version of The Greatest Showman. Even has Hugh Jackman-a-like...
our morning meeting this morning.
Good work! 🙂
What do you think about the 'models' supposedly used by government medical advisers until rather recently? I believe they were better framed as mathematical conjecture given the paucity of good data? A lot of stock seems to have been put on an old influenza model.
They were the very best available at the time. To describe influenza infection vaccination, treatment and control. That means that the age distributions, mixing behaviours and geographics, validated with decades of data are very sound.
Apply that to a situation where the incubation period, is largely unknown, the transmissibility is largely unknown and the population immunity essentially nil, and see what you predict. Try a range of assumptions and what is the range of outcomes?
When every plausible outcome is bad, advise to act. Forget the headline death toll, this number is nonsense - it's 200,000 (range 2,000 - 2,000,000 - MADE UP BTW). But if the speed of new cases hospitalised cases likely to double every 3 days and you have N (already full ITU beds), then it's a simple model that says you will be swamped in D = log(2)/(N/N(0)) days.
Then you act...
My models are data-fitting and my predictions get better as more cases and deaths accrue. They are statistical-epidemiological models The influenza model has a headstart because it is a mechanistic model with some of the key elements already well characterised. Calibrating it to the COVID-19 is, however more challenging.
Serious wobble myself last night. Shortness of breath, tingling fingers, weakness in arms, muscle pain. The Covid action plan is:
Thanks for the useful posts generally @TiRed. More specifially, just wondering, is the tingling fingers thing a recognised COVID symptom. I had the same thing as well as some weird peripheral vision blurring stuff and had half forgotten the tingling. There's a full run-down of what I've had on the other thread. No test, so no idea if it is or isn't COVID-19, but the impact on my HRV, HR, breathing etc is real and measured.
Rest up and get well soon 🙂
Interesting to see Scotland’s numbers being lower. Their population is about a 10th of the others on that graph, which are all very similar.
Wishful thinking – Could it be the beginnings of reaching saturation/a certain amount of herd immunity?
That conjecture ignores that, where it could, the Scottish government acted before the UK government to stop the spread, as did NI.
Time to bin the ‘herd immunity’ nonsense. This virus needs to be denied new carriers via containment, ‘till we are ready to deal with it via drugs and/or vaccination.
A good friend of mine has just had confirmation of his Covid test - his wife ended up in hospital after a bit of a panic attack due to her breathlessness - He reckons the only symptom he had was a banging headache for one day.
Tbf, it might well be that he had no symptoms, and the headache was just, well, a headache.
BWD - those are all symptoms of dyspnoea - shortness of breath and low blood O2. Raised resting HR is also a symptom of body compensating for low O2. Breath harder - I concentrate on breathing out.
COVID-19 is likely to be an infection of the deep lung alveoli (where the entry protein ACE2 is expressed) that reduces surfactant. That disrupts the Physics of O2 diffusion across the lung. So now you know. I suspect if you have more ACE1 than ACE2 you are protected a bit.
Thanks, that mostly makes sense.
Cheers.
I suspect if you have more ACE1 than ACE2 you are protected a bit.
What would determine that, is it a genetic thing? And I guess higher lung capacity might help as well? Very definitely not a scientist here, so sorry if those are obvious points.