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I don’t think it’s a famous people thing, but location based perhaps.
Exactly nothing to do with being famous. I could tested tonight and have the results within 24 hours as my employer has set this up.
Is it right our official cases stand at 22,000, but we have 9000 in hospital? Not sure we can read too much into the figures if that is the case. I thought hospitalisation rates were meant to be below 20%
They were until quite recently mostly testing people who were hospitalised, and members of the Royal family, which would account for that. If you were left festering at home, you're not part of the official figures.
Its deeply frustrating that the government keep lying to us
Johnson said we werent involved in joint EU procurement because we've left the EU, Hancock said we missed the email, Gove said it was a misunderstanding, turns out UK officials were present at meetings from as early as January
https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1244705014834233345
Is it right our official cases stand at 22,000, but we have 9000 in hospital? Not sure we can read too much into the figures if that is the case. I thought hospitalisation rates were meant to be below 20%
I would be guessing over 140,000 people here have it as 1400 have died (I am basing these figures on Germany having 67,000 confirmed with 645 deaths) That also doesn't take into account how many undiagnosed cases in Germany and also assumes that the same percentage of cases result in death in UK and Germany
I think that may over simply things. We may have more people in the system who will ultimately die because of wider community transmission earlier. So might be double that. One of my cycling buddies is hospitalised with COVID now. 50, nothing approaching an underlying heath condition
Scotlands CMO came up with an estimate of up 65,000 current cases in Scotland alone. Given an even spread that would mean 650,000 - 700,000 in the UK. That was a couple of days ago so the numbers would be up to double that now.
The world in data chart is more or less those in hospital only. @Tired will know better as they’re using ECDC data as Tired is?
Although that’s still a reasonable indicator in itself. In the short term possibly better than the numbers we’ve lost to this ****.
I don’t believe many countries beyond a number in Asia have tested enough to have anything approaching a good approximation of total infected by testing. Not enough testing exist to test with to achieve that for most of Europe. I’m honestly not sure how close Germany is?
I don’t think it’s a famous people thing, but location based perhaps.
Location could a part in exposure risk - a super spreader and a level of complacency that it couldn't happen here. I think it's fair to say celebrities have a level of detachment from the day to day world.
The level of testing is more likely to be the presence of private medical. I thought there was something in the media a while back saying you could get a private test for £300. Wasn't there also stories about a sports club somewhere testing players as a matter of course. Slightly different to being in a high risk role and having testing in place as part of looking after your workforce and keeping key workers in play.
Scotlands CMO came up with an estimate of up 65,000 current cases in Scotland alone. Given an even spread that would mean 650,000 – 700,000 in the UK. That was a couple of days ago so the numbers would be up to double that now.
I thought the UK Government suggested the hidden part of the iceberg was around 20,000 two weeks or so back. How would that have grown over the last two weeks?
Is it fair to say the current cases to deaths ratio is more one of severe symptoms to death rather than any symptoms? There's then a wider group who display mild symptoms and another wider group still of a-symptomatic. Is there anything no the different ratios?
Scotroutes wrote: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-3-day-average
I was staggered by this yesterday...
Is it a blip, perhaps caused by the weekend, or a real downturn?
We need to watch the deaths. AIUI they probably tell us more than new cases which are a fairly woolly indicator.
However you look at it, it isn't bad news.
That graph is only confirmed cases which again relies on sufficient testing. So the blip could be linked to testing itself failing.
OAP - Portsmouth FC tested its entire squad privately. One was positive. That was 10-12 days ago.
Telegraph reporting that the actual mortality numbers are going to be released (all covid deaths)
Expecting a sharp increase and a sharper increase to come - the mortality figures can be 11 days behind...
That graph is only confirmed cases which again relies on sufficient testing. So the blip could be linked to testing itself failing.
In multiple countries at the same time?
..but yes. Hence I wrote:
We need to watch the deaths. AIUI they probably tell us more than new cases which are a fairly woolly indicator.
In multiple countries at the same time?
Depends where the tests are coming from/manufactured/components supply chain really.
But yes, the reason it was posted was down to the same thing appearing in multiple countries.
I don’t fancy pinning any hope on it just yet. Maybe in a week or two.
I hit a proper low yesterday with the lack of proper social interaction/outdoor exercise (only have a DH bike).
But todays a new day the sun is shining, so I'm going to take a walk to some local fields with small wooded bits and see if anythings buildable. Then hit the garden and try to plan a weeks worth of stuff that needs doing
Mehr - enjoy the fresh air & turn down the news.
At yesterday’s presser, Vallance stayed they were changing death reporting as of today, but he didn’t expect it to significantly change anything.
I was staggered by this yesterday…
Is it a blip, perhaps caused by the weekend, or a real downturn?
It's all about testing
In the UK we've actually been testing less for the last few days as we are struggling to get the laboratories set up & supplied
Yay! Operation Cygnus
In the UK we’ve actually been testing less for the last few days as we are struggling to get the laboratories set up & supplied
How does that affect all the other countries in the graph?
How does that affect all the other countries in the graph?
was just trying to illustrate that the metric is only as useful as the testing is & theres understandably a global shortage of testing kits & reagents (one of the problems UK labs are facing)
If other countries testing capacities are as overwhelmed as ours then numbers will be volatille
so are we really only able to consider the deaths as the reliable statistic?
Strongly agree with that kimbers, this may have been posted already re data discrepancies. Worth a read.
FT article on data discrepancies
Yep even the death rate isnt reliable
we havent been counting people who die outside of hospital, spain includes anyone who test positive, we & others only count it as covid if other things didnt kill them 1st
Only way to really compare how countries handled it will be in the future & compare how many extra deaths above normal* level
*which itself is hugely variable
Crikey, we really are fighting blind aren't we?
I'm wondering just how easy/difficult/maybe-not-even-possible-at-all it will be for the various countries to perform rigorous testing & contact tracing, after the initial outbreak subsides.
Yay! Operation Cygnus
Helen Whateley is monumentally useless !!
so are we really only able to consider the deaths as the reliable statistic?
I think so.
Until a reliable and fast antibody test comes along and we can test everyone fast. The antigen doesn't cut it.
Having said that I'm not going to rule out a matching drop off among multiple nations as insignificant. I still think that *could* indicate the first peak. Obvs there will be more peaks as the taps are turned on and off in the coming months.
I’m wondering just how easy/difficult/maybe-not-even-possible-at-all it will be for the various countries to perform rigorous testing & contact tracing, after the initial outbreak subsides.
Contact tracing will always be impossible for most of the world. We don't contact trace for Flu for instance.
Testing, once a cheap and fast anti-gen test arrives, will be a doddle.
Testing, once a cheap and fast anti-gen test arrives, will be a doddle.
You'd imagine that supplying PPE to front line NHS staff would be a doddle, but apparently it is too difficult to do.
You’d imagine that supplying PPE to front line NHS staff would be a doddle, but apparently it is too difficult to do.
I wouldn't.
If you can source enough PPE kit why not buy it yourself and sell it onto the NHS? You'll make a killing.
Or is it not as easy as you think?
“The current virus strains are still fundamentally very similar to each other,” he said.
The COVID-19 virus does not mutate very fast. It does so eight to 10 times more slowly than the influenza virus, said Anderson, making its evolution rate similar to other coronaviruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS).
It’s also not expected to spontaneously evolve into a form more deadly than it already is to humans. The SARS-CoV-2 is so good at transmitting itself between human hosts, said Andersen, it is under no evolutionary pressure to evolve.
Yesterday we were talking about mutations, different strains and so on
If you can source enough PPE kit why not buy it yourself and sell it onto the NHS? You’ll make a killing.
If I'd done a dry run a coouple of years ago that told me that PPE would be needed and should be stockpiled, maybe that's what I'd have done.
And now the Goats are taking over
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-lockdown-goats-wales-animals-llandudno-nature-a9437636.html
Standing in for white mice presumably.
If I’d done a dry run a coouple of years ago that told me that PPE would be needed and should be stockpiled, maybe that’s what I’d have done.
You did have access to that report. So you'd have stockpiled enough kit to deal with a once in 100 year event? (Maybe) Shame you didn't. If you'd done so you'd be a gazzillionaire now.
Indeed you can buy up stuff for other one in 100 year events RIGHT NOW and make a mint when they happen at some point in the future.
Yet you're not, because it's not worth it.
Which is what most of the world's governments decided. (Except it probably wasn't even a decision because every department needs more money for 100 year frequency events and none of them get it. I doubt they even bother asking.)
Interesting article here from University of Cambridge virologist.
Immunity, relapse, contagion, etc. Also it seems unlikely anyone with a bad cough over the winter had COVID-19
Thank SOM, superb article. (Assuming it's all true.)
I was especially truck by this:
The symptoms that drag on are your body’s response to the virus, but the virus is gone after a few days. I take great umbrage at the lengths of time you are meant to be infectious for because it is just not true. Nine days is nonsense. You don’t excrete a live virus that long.
Those studies are not checking for live virus, they are checking for genome. They do something called a PCR test (polymerase chain reaction), which is the test we are using to diagnose patients. It doesn’t tell you that you have live virus in your nose, it tells you have had it. For about 72 hours of a viral infection you have a live virus. In children it can last for longer – four or five days have been observed in flu.
Which suggests that by the time people get into hospital they virus is long gone. (Although wouldn't doctors know that?)
Its deeply frustrating that the government keep lying to us
Johnson said we werent involved in joint EU procurement because we’ve left the EU, Hancock said we missed the email, Gove said it was a misunderstanding, turns out UK officials were present at meetings from as early as January
This would be the same Boris Johnson who sent an unsigned letter to the EU requesting a Brexit extension. He definitely has form for playing silly buggers in matters of great national importance.
Is he or isn't he at the moment - sadly you can't say definitely with conviction one way or the other.
Which suggests that by the time people get into hospital they virus is long gone. (Although wouldn’t doctors know that?)
Was the case for a work mate. His whole family had fever, dry cough (started with kids). They all recovered but he ended up in hospital with pneumonia. He tested negative for Covid19 and the doctors did say he would have had it but it is no longer present hence negative test.
Just that one example is 4 people who have had it yet none are in the stats. My guess would still be that millions of people have already had it, a lot of whom won't even know.
There is quite good modelling on this - one model says it will peak around the end of April, which would be great - I think that is quite optimistic. Then one takes it as far as May. It will start dying off but it’s not going to die off in time globally to help the Olympics
...and this I don't understand.
Why will it die off before large numbers of us have had it?
My guess would still be that millions of people have already had it, a lot of whom won’t even know.
Fingers crossed. I'll piss myself laughing if the antibody test comes out next week and they have to sheepishly say "Sorry, most of you have had it. Open the pubs, back to work, off you go."
The antigen test has been a massive red herring.
I’ll piss myself laughing
And I'm sure those that have lost family members would join you....
I’ll piss myself laughing if the antibody test comes out next week and they have to sheepishly say “Sorry, most of you have had it. Open the pubs, back to work, off you go.”
I won't, as a whole raft of people won't ever listen to anything their told, ever again. It's bad enough now.
My guess would still be that millions of people have already had it, a lot of whom won’t even know.
Or, look at a country that has got and stayed on top of it and is reporting decent data, S Korea. As of 24/3, they had 111 deaths, 8961 confirmed cases, is about 1.5%.
What are we at in UK, 1400 ish deaths today, puts us at circa 95k cases... allowing for growth since the time those 1400 dead were first infected, probably about 4 times that, so near 400k?
Not millions yet - not even 1% of pop.
Come back when we've buried 30,000 from it, and we have had 8 or 10 mil infections.
Is he or isn’t he at the moment – sadly you can’t say definitely with conviction one way or the other.
Well, that's the thing with constructive ambiguity and truth stretching.
All funny japes when it's just conning a populace into voting against its own interests, twice.
Not so funny when something that requires real trust gives into view.
I've said it twice before on this thread. Half the country know Johnson is a liar and wouldn't vote for him because of it. The other know he is a liar and love him for it because he will 'shake the plaster off the ceiling' to make their Daily Mail fantasy world come true.
But in the end no one really trusts him.
I doubt very much that any other other PM would have done that much differently over the last week or two. The time for politicking is not now.
However, there will be a time and it will not be long. No Deal Brexit looming at the end of the year and CV will still be hanging around then.
If he is going to go through with it, he needs ousting. If he delays, the swivel eyed loons will have him. Their masters are getting more impatient for their payout.
Or, look at a country that has got and stayed on top of it and is reporting decent data, S Korea. As of 24/3, they had 111 deaths, 8961 confirmed cases, is about 1.5%.
They haven't got an antibody test either so they have no more clue than us.
I dunno. Not many folks dying of it in S Korea. I'd rather our government didn't know the same things their government didn't know.
On a slightly less serious note, has anybody else noticed a big increase in fly tipping since lockdown?
They haven’t got an antibody test either so they have no more clue than us.
I dunno.
I do. They haven't. They have no idea what portion of their population have had it.
Daily death toll is 393, shits starting to get very real
On a slightly less serious note, has anybody else noticed a big increase in fly tipping since lockdown?
Yes, massively.
Scrotes will always be scrotes.
Some experts on here who need to join the government response team - soon have it all sorted!
I’ll piss myself laughing
Doctors have died, after contracting this virus from people they were looking after.
You enjoy your laughs.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-3-day-average < Downward trend of new cases (appears to) continue. I really don't understand why all the countries are coming down down at the same time, surely the countries that 'got it' later should be peaking later??? I don't see how we can make the case that the UK is heading where Italy were (or are if you prefer).
S.Korea have have done some excellent work with qPCR, test track, trace & isolate
Its fair to say they have a much better understanding of how its spreading within their own population that we do in ours
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-south-korea-put-into-place-the-worlds-most-aggressive-coronavirus-testing-11584377217
the work on the Shincheonji Church of Jesus infection was very impressive
https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-3-day-average
Deaths decreasing everywhere too. (Admittedly all these numbers are over the weekend *but* they've never dropped over weekends before.)
Daily death toll is 393, shits starting to get very real
There was talk of "sweeping up" unreported deaths into today's figure, IIRC?
In other words, might be artificially large.
Got real a while ago.
I don’t see how we can make the case that the UK is heading where Italy were (or are if you prefer).
cases are a poor guide at the moment we are tracking Italy very closely on deaths
this compares deaths by days after 10th death
if by say Friday we're well below Italy's equivalent number of deaths (2500) thats good & we'd hope that NHS having had more time to prepare & younger population shouldnt be as overwhelmed
days 0 5 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
UK 10 71 281 355 422 463 578 759 1019 1228 1408
italy 10 41 197 233 366 463 631 827 1016 1266 1441
But how many of the reported deaths are because of the virus, not just those who have it but died of other causes?
Daily death toll is 393
180 according to this:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
(Grep for "Daily New Deaths in the United Kingdom")
Anyone explain the discrepancy between the two numbers?
While we are currently in a bad situation
Daily death toll is 393, shits starting to get very real
whats the arbitrary cut off for shit realness?
we haven't yet (as far as I know) started turning people with a high chance of death away from hospital or ICU
and corona virus deaths haven't exceeded the "normal" UK death rate
whats the arbitrary cut off for shit realness?
Obviously, someone who hasn't read any news since January.
But how many of the reported deaths are because of the virus, not just those who have it but died of other causes?
Difficult to know because as Covid-19 is now a notifiable disease if someone dies with it, say in end stage cancer, but not necessarily because of it Covid-19 is still reported as the cause of death whereas if they had died with normal influenza the cause of death would be reported as cancer
On a slightly less serious note, has anybody else noticed a big increase in fly tipping since lockdown?
About similar here - there are a couple of quiet spots that usually collect a bit. As I'm mostly road walking at the moment I've notice the amount of litter just chucked about is incredible - that people are still finding time to chuck cans out of window is saddening. On the up - if we ever get stuck for resources - there's plenty of aluminium lying about the place.
Anyone explain the discrepancy between the two numbers?
Your username should be outofdate, if you're going to be an armchair expert at least try and keep up
Your username should be outofdate, if you’re going to be an armchair expert at least try and keep up
Asking for the explanation for the difference between the two different numbers *is* trying to keep up.
The time for politicking is not now.
Agreed, although there is scope for observations.
I doubt very much that any other other PM would have done that much differently over the last week or two.
Not as convinced on that one - not the wider life rafts. There were things there that take time to develop. Self employed vs PAYE for example. What has been pulled together in two weeks is incredible.
I do think speed of initial containment and keeping track of who and where could have been better.
Did ideology muddy the waters, definitely one for 20:20 hindsight. I think there is wider discussion into how the British state sees the British people. This is a country that was going to test the atomic bomb in East Yorkshire!
Anyway stepping away from the musings and back to the numbers.
Anyone explain the discrepancy between the two numbers?
393 was on the BBC at 15.18 so probably legit.
That worldometer site is stating 400 deaths.
Hasn't there been a one off adjustment applied to do with reporting deaths outside hospitals? Or did I just make that up?
Hasn’t there been a one off adjustment applied to do with reporting deaths outside hospitals? Or did I just make that up?
I though the adjustment was 40 extra, based on death certificates, but I may have mis-read.
Anyone explain the discrepancy between the two numbers?
180 was yesterday, 381 today (although reporting deaths has a 24 hour delay)
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
From the basic modelling i've done (assume a lot less sophisticated that TiRed's) todays number was inline with the rate of positive tests recorded a week ago.
Like people are saying the numbers are only going to get worse over the next week or so.
cases are a poor guide at the moment we are tracking Italy very closely on deaths
this compares deaths by days after 10th death
if by say Friday we’re well below Italy’s equivalent number of deaths (2500) thats good & we’d hope that NHS having had more time to prepare & younger population shouldnt be as overwhelmed
days 0 5 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
UK 10 71 281 355 422 463 578 759 1019 1228 1408italy 10 41 197 233 366 463 631 827 1016 1266 1441
I can't relate this numbers to the numbers I've found. You've got us level pegging on day 18 but Italy had twice as many deaths per day at day 18 compared to us and their graph was shooting skywards. We're on less than half the deaths per day and have decreased 4 days in a row. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-3-day-average
...and a plea. When people post numbers on this thread (or online in general) please link to the source! It saves everyone a load of googling and saves people asking (and answering) questions.
All 381 reported deaths occurred in hospitals. There has been no adjustment made.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1244998310735331330?s=20
On a slightly less serious note, has anybody else noticed a big increase in fly tipping since lockdown?
I've actually been surprised that I haven't seen an increase in flytipping yet, and if anything, littering is down. Though as I winched my way up the first proper hill I've ridden in 9 months this morning, I noticed that the person who bought the woodland has put up a few CCTV cameras to go with the signs.
In other news, my medical appointment for my crash injury claim has been cancelled by the hospital - the consultants secretary seemed very surprised that I agreed it was a good idea.
And MrsMC has been warned that as she is duty social worker in the office tomorrow, she may have to help a colleague move a vulnerable person from the Midlands to the nearest safe place - in Scotland. I have suggested that she get her line manager to do a full Covid-19 proof risk assessment on that one 🤦
Rev. Ken is a nutter.
That worldometer site
Many thanks, that cracked it. The worldometer site has an overview page - showing 381 but when you follow the uk link it takes you to the 3 day average of 180 and the 381 number is absent! That's the explanation.
To save everyone else the bother:
The 381 number is here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The UK page with the 180 number is here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Like Kerley I've noted that the UK is closely tracking Italy (add another day to Kerley's list and they are both around 1800). Another striking similarity is that lockdown in Italy took place at about 400 dead on 9/3/2020 and in the UK on 23-24/3/2020 at about the same number.
when you follow the uk link it takes you to the 3 day average of 180 and the 381 number is absent!
The worldometers graphs seem to get updated daily at midnight. They are always "yesterdays" data.
The per-country headline figures are updated with whatever daily info comes their way, i.e. "live" and subject to change.
the UK is closely tracking Italy
My schoolboy graph has us completely level pegging, shape and size of curve.
Spain has the same shape but the size is larger, despite also introducing measures at around 400 deaths.
I'd take TiRed's analysis over anything we can come up with though.