A few stats from Gov.uk, and I've got to say, I'm starting to get very sceptical about all the reports issued by the government and associated official bodies.
21/12/20 vs 21/12/21
Virus tests - 453.903 vs 1,490,061
Positive results - 45,648 vs 24,461 (though it did peak at around 100k for a couple of days a week earlier)
Hospitalisations - 2,371 vs 813 (18/12/21)
Deaths - 575 vs 13 (last few days typically 70-100)
To summarise - 3x the tests results in just over half the cases. 1/3 of people in hospital and 1/5 the amount of deaths
If there is a huge spike in cases due to omicron, wouldn't it be a lot more , when you consider how much more testing is being done.
I'm peering into the rabbit hole, and seeing a very different picture to that which is being painted by Boris and co.
(I have no affiliation with any anti vax, 5g, flat earth groups etc.😁)
Edit - add link - https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing
The studies published are reasonable attempts based on individual level data. But identifying reinfections is a challenge. And of course there is a significant disagreement in the magnitude of effect. It would be better to understand why the two analyses so not generate similar results, given that the populations of Scotland and England are really not so different.
As for increased testing, one thing is certain, omicron is replacing delta. The frequency rise is unequivocal regardless of increased testing practice. Also there is an increase in hospitalisation rates in both London and the North West which has tracked the cases data. Other regions have not yet. Whether this is related to vaccination practices in those regions is debatable.
The population immunity we have now clouds all pictures compared with alpha last December. The wave of delta will have pushed the age distribution of infections around, and that may have changed the hospitalisation rate. That’s before vaccination and waning protection. Controlling for age, vaccination history, waning, loss of potency and past infection history is very challenging.
[tl:dr] there is evidence of lower morbidity, but it’s equivocal. I would not be jumping on it to say “told you so” just yet.
21/12/20 vs 21/12/21
Virus tests – 453.903 vs 1,490,061
Positive results – 45,648 vs 24,461 (though it did peak at around 100k for a couple of days a week earlier)
You're quoting the 'Cases by specimen date' for 21/12/21, which is currently incomplete. The number will rise as more of the tests performed on that date are processed. 'Cases by reporting date' is 33,364 vs 90,629.
A few stats from <span class="skimlinks-unlinked">Gov.uk</span>, and I’ve got to say, I’m starting to get very sceptical about all the reports issued by the government and associated official bodies.
about the numbers, or the interpretations?
I'd be wary of comparing daily figures, there's always fluctations in data and not just because of weekend reporting, etc. You need to compare trends and rolling averages.
I'd also be wary of testing and even positive numbers. If we did no testing, there'd be no positive results, pandemic over?? We are testing far more and hence finding far more even if the % of positive tests is going down - because we are encouraging routine testing rather than in response to symptoms and exposure.
Serious cases (ie hospitalisations) and deaths is the relevant metric* and vaccination and endemic immunity is clearly helping. Complicate by the discussion above, with transmissability and severity sat on other ends of the seesaw, and it's hard to extract a full picture.
* and I haven't seen it said for a while but long covid is still a thing, even if it doesn't kill you. Is there any knowledge yet about whether Omicron is more or less likely to lead to long term effects.
I tested positive for Covid on Tuesday so that’s Christmas off for me. I feel pretty grim but I’m bloody glad I’m double jabbed and boosted
Bad luck Binners
There is no 'one size fits all 'when it comes to this Covid malarky,so take it easy.
The number of pro Johnson twitter pundits that are saying his dithering is justified
Because omicron will result in 40% less hospitalisations than the deltawave
Completely ignoring that Delta wave caused 100,000? hospitalisations spread over a few months & omicron spreading much faster world mean 50,000+
me neither but then a friend-of-a-friend posted something a bit “unusual” so I had a look at their page… loads of anti-vax stuff, lots of stuff about becoming “magnetic”. Apparently this is a thing: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/freedom-of-information-responses-from-the-mhra-week-commencing-21-june-2021/freedom-of-information-request-on-reports-of-magnetism-at-covid-19-vaccine-injection-sites-foi-21-545It’s interesting that I’d never really seen specific examples of the anti-vax stuff that has been doing the rounds on social media.
(Although this person hadn’t even [i]had[/i] the vaccine - they’d just been standing “too close” to those that had). There was even a pic with a spoon carefully balanced on themselves to “prove” the magnetism!! I honestly couldn’t tell whether it was a piss-take or not, but lots of their friends chimed in with sympathetic messages & herbal remedies to demagnetise… if it was a bit, they were all very committed to it! Probably shouldn’t laugh though, I guess the most likely explanation is they are unwell and honestly believe it. Scary though!
As for increased testing, one thing is certain, omicron is replacing delta.
I think a slightly worrying aspect of current reporting and debate is a sense of relaxation based on the increasing prevalence of omicron and its apparently lower severity. Politically and personally people are measuring risk and their exposure to that risk based on a relatively better prognosis with Omicron (which is of course still a lot worse than no Covid at all).
Omicron is replacing Delta but it hasn't replaced it yet. They're both still out there and Mrs Doubtpfizer doesn't really get to chose which they catch.
You’re quoting the ‘Cases by specimen date’ for 21/12/21, which is currently incomplete. The number will rise as more of the tests performed on that date are processed. ‘Cases by reporting date’ is 33,364 vs 90,629.
Thanks for spotting that, I did wonder at the original quote, but that puts everything into better perspective.
There was even a pic with a spoon carefully balanced on themselves to “prove” the magnetism!!
Non of my spoons are magnetic - that only goes to prove how doubling worrying the vaccine is, it not only magnetises the vaccinated and those standing next to them but also the changes the fundamental nature of the stainless steel in their cutlery drawer.
You need to compare trends and rolling averages.
But also reporting. Anyone taking a LFT is supposed to report the outcome, either way, every time. In reality almost nobody does, but the level of compliance will have changed over time. In the past people were pretty unlikely to report a negative result but would probably report a positive one. Its now reasonable to suspect people often won't report a positive LFT.
The number of pro Johnson twitter pundits that are saying his dithering is justified
Because omicron will result in 40% less hospitalisations than the deltawave
Keir Starmer is also saying that :
But Sir Keir clarified that he is not yet backing a circuit-break lockdown.
He told Times Radio: The numbers are a cause for concern. [But] the hospitalisations are different than they were… the autumn before, when we called for the circuit break."
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/keir-starmer-not-calling-circuit-25761912.amp
Tricky one. It's buried deep on the Gov website but they advise no LFT or PCR for 90 days after positive PCR.
When my family had it we didn't realise this applied to LFT as well as PCR. My son tested -ve first test after the 10 days were up then +ve 4 days later. Covid helpline advised NO testing for 90 days.
We've agonised about testing this period as we are seeing both my Mother and Parents In Law. We are within the 90 days still and really not sure of the value of testing within the 90 days. If we are symptomless but positive is that a hangover from catching Covid or we've caught it again? We've just tried to limit social contact leading up to the big day instead.
As usual the Gov guidelines are clear as mud especially when they say you can now stop isolating after 7 days with a -ve LFT. How does that work if you're not supposed to test for 90 days? I assume if you are negative you're allowed out after 7. If positive but symptomless you can come out after 10. And then don't test again. Not exactly straightforward is it.
But also reporting. Anyone taking a LFT is supposed to report the outcome, either way, every time. In reality almost nobody does, but the level of compliance will have changed over time.
Yeah, got to admit I've reported a negative a total of twice. On my first ever one, and one where I suspected someone might want proof (they didnt ask).
In the past people were pretty unlikely to report a negative result but would probably report a positive one. Its now reasonable to suspect people often won’t report a positive LFT.
Wont report because they are trying to save their christmas, or because they are scurrying off to get a PCR?
If someone has a +ve LFT and reports it and subsequently a -ve PCR and is therefore "free". Does it still count as a positive test.
I thought Jason Manford on Live at the Apollo was brilliant last night - ripping the pee out of people who ignore highly qualified professional scientists (thanks for your conitinuing input here Tired) and quote their mate Darren, from the gym, who attends the university of facebook. Guessing there were quite a few self-concious nervous laughs in that London audience!
We've been pretty consistent reporting our LFT tests - when the kids did them for school the school asked to be informed and so we filled in the schools form which was next to a link to report to the NHS, it just got to be a habit.
MrsMC completes tests for work so reports them to be able to show the negative message to service users she meets, if challenged, and I've just reported mine out of habit I guess. Been asked to show proof a couple of times for events before I got my vaccine passport.
Obviously they can be faked when required. If you're a dick.
I thought Jason Manford on Live at the Apollo was brilliant last night
Agreed
Great timing in the Rock household.
Eldest has a weekend job and worked last Sunday. Gets a call from her workmate yesterday, to say she has tested +ve. Daughter feels a temperature and coughing. Two LFT yesterday both -ve. Booked for a PCR, nearest was Darlington (70miles away). Managed to grab a walk in this morning local but she has been told possibly five days for the results to come back.
Christmas day was with Mrs Rock's widowed mum, Boxing day with my Dad, who is on his own as my mum is in a care home. I was hoping to visit my mum boxing day (last saw her August), but they have now locked down as they have had a case, which now means that my dad can't see my mum as planned to spend the xmas day in the home with her.
Hopefully, results for the daughter may be back pronto, but if not, we are probably not risking relying on LFT being negative to have the MIL and parent round. (80yo & 92yo). All double jabbed and boosted but I don't think I can bring myself to risk it.
We (immediate family) will be OK, just gutted that I can't see the wider family and they will be sat on their own over xmas. Bigger picture, keeping everyone safe. That's what I am keeping in mind. They'll still be there in one/two weeks and we can see them then.
I’m spending this week driving a tanker to empty portaloos, I’d kill for no sense of smell right now! Ironically half the jobs have been from Covid testing sites.
Ooh, do you do the Farnham LTS? Give us a shout and I’ll make you a cuppa next time you visit.
Keir Starmer is also saying that
Starmer and Streeting have been useless this week… they should be emphasising the advice Sage and others are giving the government, but are too scared about being painted as “lockdown fanatics”. Johnson has said nearly every PMQs since “Freedom Day” that “we’d still be in lockdown if Labour had their way”… but Labour need to be brave enough to challenge that nonsense, not be cowed by it. Announcing/suggesting/supporting further restrictions and support before Christmas, to avoid needing “lockdowns” at all this winter, is not the poisonous political proposition that Johnson has trapped the opposition benches into believing (partly because for his own position it is true). Politicians away from Westminster realise this and have acted/spoken accordingly.
Yeah, got to admit I’ve reported a negative a total of twice.
I have diligently reported all of my LFTs. They’ve all been negative. I suspect reporting is only really associated with utility - need that covid pass for attendance at an event.
Darren, from the gym, who attends the university of facebook.
I resemble that comment. Well it’s Daren with ONE R and I don’t attend a gym and I went to three universities that don’t include Facebook 🤣
if TiRed isnt facebook qualified, im out.
anyone can get a certificate from a "university"
🙂
The amount of plastic that we have manufactured for all these tests, the packaging, must be unbelievable. I have wondered if we could have had different packaging using less plastic.
The amount of plastic that we have manufactured for all these tests, the packaging, must be unbelievable.
You want to see the amount of plastic goes through a routine laboratory every day anyway!
The number of pro Johnson twitter pundits that are saying his dithering is justified
Even a stopped clock......
Even a stopped cock……
Ah, so THAT’s why he’s been so keen so avoid lockdowns
Releasing from isolation at 7 days after 2 -ve lfts seems rather foolhardy as these tests were never designed for this were they? They are accurate to a point and useful for finding asymptomatic cases but false negatives are an issue iirc? Either through poor use, low viral load, or some combination thereof?
Can someone point me to the official guidance for The 90-day window after a positive test, and LF testing. I can’t find it on the GOV site. Please!
Similar situation to others, I’m in the 90 day window and will be visiting family. Don’t mind testing, but if it’s positive and it’s remnants of my Covid from few weeks…
Confusing
Just to add to the confusion around self testing with a LFT after 6 & 7 days, but not before 90 days... if you get two -ve LFTs you are then free to roam around, but you still can't get your NHS-app covid pass until 10 days have passed.
...and still no RLFT's locally. 🙁
However, my parents have a spare and they're only a few miles away so I'll have to use that.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59769969
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59768366
Sounds like more good news..
Don’t worry, someone will be along shortly to pour gloom on any good news. I get that people are scared and we need to do what’s right but I’ve had to step away from reading this thread as the constantly doom mongering at anything that could be seen as a positive was ramping my anxiety through the roof!
I don't get that people are "scared", I get that people are very concerned about the greatest health emergency for over a hundred years and the most serious crisis for the NHS since its creation over 70 years ago.
Edit : I tested positive for covid this afternoon, it hasn't caused me to be scared because I feel sufficiently well-informed to know that being tripled jabbed will give me reasonable protection.
Apologies, I didn’t mean scared in a negative sense, concern is indeed a better term.
I don’t get that people are “scared”, I get that people are very concerned about the greatest health emergency for over a hundred years and the most serious crisis for the NHS since its creation over 70 years ago.
^^^^^ this
I tested positive for covid this afternoon
I hope all goes well for you Ernie. You (and we) are in such a better position than a year ago. No one should lose sight of that. Go medical science!
Thanks Kelvin. I had my booster exactly 6 weeks ago so I'm hoping for a reasonable level of protection, and yes you are quite right - I am very grateful to benefits of modern science. It is a good time to be alive!
Don’t worry, someone will be along shortly to pour gloom on any good news
As was pointed out with some of this mornings papers further up the thread, the headlines are great saying how less serious Omicron may be at an individual level, but no one reads the second paragraph underneath which points out that if that is the case, the fact that it is also more infectious means that there could be just as many people needing hospital treatment as we'd have with Delta.
The pandemic has always been an issue for the societal issues created by the big numbers affected, as much as the individual tragedies it has caused.
^^ Yes, that's the nuance that concerns me. Not Tory back benches though, it would seem.
The poor old NHS is going to be put through the meat grinder again.
I was told about not testing within 90 days by the local track and trace team. But looking on the web, all I can find is this, for 90 day guidance in relation to adult care homes.
Yes that’s all I could find. It’s advice, but in the context of care homes
The links I previously posted are muddier than when I was looking. I won't bother posting them again because it's not clear at all. FS.
Test and Trace ARE advising anyone who has tested positive not to test (LFD or PCR) for 90 days. Someone who I work who has had Covid recently confirmed this to me today
it’s not clear at all
Agreed. We were told in October this year by the PCR testing team (or rather the pamphlet they gave us) not to do a LFT for 90 days after a positive PCR. But having searched after being told otherwise on this thread, I found media reports from Jan this year saying that advice has changed. But now, 11 months on from that media coverage, I can still find nothing on .gov sites setting out that change of advice. Clear as mud.
The poor old NHS is going to be put through the meat grinder again.
Again? no. they were never out of the mincer, but the speed is about to be turned up.
Can we all just take a moment to appreciate the continued genius of the anti-vax mob 😂
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1474110713048272909?s=21
