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Were gonna get a lot more of it thou and if posting on a forum helps people deal with it then carry on.
As before - if someone else want to take over the morning address. Normally I get up and think right I have something to say - today didn't really have something in mind. Also a lot more people are getting to the same places now.
Is there any indication of WHERE in the UK the concentrations of infections are (e.g. big cities? London, Birmingham, etc?) or is it pretty evenly spread? If the former then it stands to reason the the lock-down will be more effective at eradicating it in lower-concentration areas.
Official details here:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14
London is split out into its boroughs, but basically its concentrated in big cities and the south east. The further away you get the lower the rates
(not surprising due to population densities)
Boris has now tested clear?
What a man he is. Infected to clear in 3 days. A real example to the rest of us.
It’s 7 days from the symptoms starting not from the test date.
No reason why rural areas will be less affected, or recover quicker, especially as some people still seem to find any excuse not to stay at home and drive to rural areas for essential dog walking, angling or birding, or whatever.
In Shetland we had 27 confirmed cases (for what it's worth) at the last count in a population of only 22000. Though sadly I expect that will rocket as there were suspected cases in care homes and a health centre staff at the weekend. Not sure if we've had one or two airlifted from the Isles now due to no ICU here.
yes but you and every other “immune” person wandering around for 6-8 months drastically reduces the ability of everyone else to catch it. The current high “R” value and proportion of people who get it “bad” is due at least in part to us as a population currently having no immunity/vaccine – expect this to go down once it’s established.
+1 and we have no idea how long resistance to the virus lasts. 6-8 months is a total guess based on a comparable virus. That number has gained a lot of traction on STW, elsewhere less so.
Some more good news:
The medicines and healthcare products regulatory agency has approved a breathing aid that can help keep covid-19 patients out of intensive care which has been developed by a team from University College London and the Mercedes Formula One team
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1244516727368671238
+1 and we have no idea how long resistance to the virus lasts. 6-8 months is a total guess based on a comparable virus. That number has gained a lot of traction on STW, elsewhere less so.
[my uneducated opinion] the longer incubation and contagious times of this virus compared to the normal flu and colds means each branch of the virus family tree has been through fewer people over a given time frame, so less chance of it being significantly different to the one you had before/the one in the vaccine. Any experts want to confirm or disprove this?
isnt the problem that catching coronavirus &any vaccine too only confers immunity for 6-8 months?
Another bit of 'good news' hardly reported at the end of last week was that there's a decent chance that as the virus has shown to be a slow mutating virus (thank goodness or we'd be in much more trouble than we already are) so like Measles etc it's likely that a single vaccine would be enough to protect us for life.
I'm not trying to downplay the enormity of the situation, but even through this we have to remember that 'The News' will be pushing the bad aspects of this more than the good because it holds our attention more. There's a practical aspect of this because you just know there's a hardcore of people who still don't believe it's anything more than just scaremongering
Everyone has some experience of influenza, even newborns (who get a free dose of six months of maternal protection antibodies). Each year a differnt flu strain hits us (it lives in birds and pigs), but our past experience fights it off. When it doesn't appear that this is going to happen (H1N1), we reach for the medicines and mass treat - or not (Spanish flu pademic).
COVID-19 has some similarity with the previous SARS-COV1 (about 59% the same) from 2003, but almost nobody saw that virus so there is no residual immunity. Anywhere. In anyone. So this is a global experiment in the mass transmission of a novel pathogen that we have only known about for about five months. If I am being honest, compared with influenze, we've learned a huge amount in that time. The original modelling captured all that influenza knowledge and the shreds we teased from early data in China to predict.
The reason I am typing this from my self-isolating bedroom is I have no immunity. My body is generating it now like the little antibody factory that it is. If this was flu (which I had earlier, even with the vaccination), that factory had stock already. The FDA have kindly licensed my body (plasma) to be used for others, were I to be in the US. Eventually we may make these antibodies (well one clone from some lucky donor who won the potency lottery) in 30,000-100,000L bioreactors.
[TL:DR] we don't really know how long immunity lasts, nor the mutation rate at this stage. But we think that antibodies made in real people against the last virus can neutralise this one. That means we probably have protection - like tetanus, but we will need a boost (either vaccine or another round of infection)
Stay inside. Think of those who's factories don't run as efficiently as yours. Hint: elderly and anyone taking immunosuppressive drugs.
Cheers Tired that’s nice and clear.
Coming from you, I take that as a complement - BTW I didn't study GCSE Biology! :-O
Uk released morbidity numbers down for a second day in a row, as is Spain. That must be good news?
I think we need something a bit more lighthearted in here.
Who’s good at writing songs?
Just as ring a ring of roses was about the plague we need a new nursery rhyme about Covid.
Things it could possibly include: sneezing/coughing, 2m ‘social’ distancing, lockdown at home, hand sanitising, Joe Wicks, China, hand washing, one period of exercise a day, flattening the curve, face masks, Boris, Moron Trump, clapping for the NHS, working from home, schools closed, ….. any more suggestions?
We could have a go at writing one on here if you like? We need a well recognised popular tune and someone to start us off.
Is it a good enough idea for a new thread? 😄
No reason why rural areas will be less affected, or recover quicker, especially as some people still seem to find any excuse not to stay at home and drive to rural areas for essential dog walking, angling or birding, or whatever.
Regardless of how many people are turning up for a wander round, the chances of exposure either directly or via a contaminated surface in a big city, with public transport, more shared accommodation and general population density, is much higher than in rural districts.
The pictures of the Tube in London are the perfect example that even when cities are trying hard to implement social distancing, it's bloody hard to do.
Uk released morbidity numbers down for a second day in a row, as is Spain. ~That must be good news?
Linky?
Its on worldometer site and the guardian.
@martinhutch yeh, sorry. It just seemed that to suggest rural areas were going to be fine and dandy in short order isn't really the case.
180 deaths in the last 24 hrs
Let's hope it's the start of a downward trend.
Coming from you, I take that as a complement – BTW I didn’t study GCSE Biology! :-O
Hahaha! So did I.
Just as ring a ring of roses was about the plague we need a new nursery rhyme about Covid.
It wasn’t but carry on.
It might be my imagination, but the 3pm (ish) figures have been revised later in the day, a number of times, I think.
It might be my imagination, but the 3pm (ish) figures have been revised later in the day, a number of times, I think.
Aren’t they only counting after NOK informed ?
I take the ECDC 8PM figures as official: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en
Looking at a trend from one day to the next is not good practice. There may be a lag from weekend reports, for example. And I recommend turning down the media. Let's hope that f'' is indeed negative, but estimation of it from yesterday and today is not really a very good idea.
Uk released morbidity numbers down for a second day in a row, as is Spain.
Linky?
Its on worldometer site and the guardian.
I don't doubt it [1]. But I think you should post a link and also the specific morbidity numbers to save us traipsing through the data for ourselves.
[1] Well I do a bit because the Guardian says the death rate has gone up, and we know testing is increasing. It would be a bit weird if morbibity went down in spite of increased testing while deaths were going up. ...but again, I dunno, I just want to see the numbers you're referring to.
EDIT: I gave up and looked for my self. Suspect the poster was referring to this: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
The dictionary suggests morbidity means number of ill people. I can't see that, but number of new cases *and* number of deaths went down between Sat and Sun.
New cases have dropped 3 days in a row from ~3000 to ~2500.
Deaths have dropped 260 to 209 form 28th - 29th.
No idea how significant that is, but it's deffo true, and in these bleak times good news or at least not bad news.
World wide, daily cases.
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
EU/EEA/UK, daily cases.
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
So what's going on here then? Good news, testing limits, fiddling the numbers, an anomaly, measures working?
I thought there was some difference in the UK counting process/timing that happened over the weekend. That would move some cases from one day to the next (or vise versa). Might have dreamt that...
I'm home. I'll update on everything later but I've just walked the stairs and it felt like an altitude summit so I'm going to take some time to calm down
Four of us on the ward, the other three all moved on to ITU. I feel very fortunate
Thanks everyone for your support.
I thought there was some difference in the UK counting process/timing that happened over the weekend. That would move some cases from one day to the next (or vise versa). Might have dreamt that…
We both dreamt it then but I vaguely think that they had to contact NOK, I don’t get why.
Frank - Great News!!!!
OOB - sorry, not trying to be confusing, just not very good at links on my iPhone.
Your link ^^^^^ to the sky article on CPAPs looks interesting. Another layer to reduce the need for full ICU ventilations sounds like a positive step.
TiRed - I definitely need to step back from the news. Im home and bored with no flights, children to homeschool, and I've had my daily exercise allowance with the dogs already.
I think we need something a bit more lighthearted in here.
Is it a good enough idea for a new thread?
Maybe re-christen this one technical and have a different one for more general discussions.
No reason why rural areas will be less affected, or recover quicker, especially as some people still seem to find any excuse not to stay at home and drive to rural areas for essential dog walking, angling or birding, or whatever.
There should be less chance of large numbers of people being exposed and less opportunity for mixing. I'll caveat that with for villages / hamlets / isolated houses. Towns are going to have the same issues as cities? In once you reach a certain population density way. My suspicion is there would be more chance of people in rural areas catching the virus earlier in all of this - assumption that it's not here combined with less stringent biosecurity. Guess that's something we only see when the numbers are in.
Excellent news Frank.
Great news Frank, take it easy, we don't a relapse
OOB – sorry, not trying to be confusing, just not very good at links on my iPhone.
No problems at all, posting from a phone is a PITA!
Excellent news Frank.
Delighted for you. A work colleague has been in the same position. Take it gently. For at least two weeks. Probably more.
…and Charles’ 7 days is up as well:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52088684
Im sure he tested positive on Weds25th which means he's done 5 days or 6 at the most if Weds25th and today are classed as full days. I'm sure the protocol is 2weeks isolation for testing positive and 1week isolation for being in close vicinity to a positive even though you have no symptoms. he's made a very quick recovery, must be some superfit dude.
7 days from first symptoms, I think, rather than from a positive test...
Happy for you Frank; take it easy - slow and steady.
What do people think about lockdown exit strategy for the country. If lockdown is working and we peak in the next couple of weeks and infections and deaths start decreasing of subsequent weeks
(1) at what point do restrictions start because being relaxed
(2) which restrictions and in which order
(3) How do we avoid infections increasing again once population starts mixing
On the 3rd point I think we cant relax lockdown restrictions until testing and contact tracing is up to South Korean standards. I also think we'd prob need antibody testing as well.
So even if infection and death rates fall back significantly lockdown stays in force until other control measures are in place
What do you think?
There is a problem we're identifying with the numbers from what I hear. GP's can put a clinical diagnosis of Covid-19 down on the death certificate but with no testing many may not be and may simply be putting pneumonia. Beyond this there is a reporting lag from the weekend due to the death registration process. From looking at last weeks numbers Wednesday and Thursday's look more realistic. I can tell you from inside the hospital that numbers are starting to escalate quickly. I expect although can't be certain we are going to see very large increases in numbers by the end of the week.
fadda, yes correct. It's seven days if you're positive and have isolated alone which he did. If you're living with one or more person then it's 14days for everyone.
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/
There is a problem we’re identifying with the numbers from what I hear. GP’s can put a clinical diagnosis of Covid-19 down on the death certificate but with no testing many may not be and may simply be putting pneumonia. Beyond this there is a reporting lag from the weekend due to the death registration process. From looking at last weeks numbers Wednesday and Thursday’s look more realistic. I can tell you from inside the hospital that numbers are starting to escalate quickly. I expect although can’t be certain we are going to see very large increases in numbers by the end of the week.
Telegraph and Express reported the same today...I think it's too early to read too much into these numbers as there seems to be a reporting lag.
The figures don't make sense based on Italy and Spain either, unless we have a very low CFR
olddog
Member
What do people think about lockdown exit strategy for the country. If lockdown is working and we peak in the next couple of weeks and infections and deaths start decreasing of subsequent weeks(1) at what point do restrictions start because being relaxed
(2) which restrictions and in which order
(3) How do we avoid infections increasing again once population starts mixingOn the 3rd point I think we cant relax lockdown restrictions until testing and contact tracing is up to South Korean standards. I also think we’d prob need antibody testing as well.
So even if infection and death rates fall back significantly lockdown stays in force until other control measures are in placeWhat do you think?
I was kinda thinking that we can all go about our merry way as soon as a vaccine is available. As we pretty much know, the young and the healthy are (mostly - good on ya Frank!) OK, its the vulnerable at risk - so get them vaccinated, all is good.
Anti-vaxxers and flat-earthers can be brought together into a large gym hall to decide their own fate...
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-3-day-average?country=USA+ITA+ESP+DEU+GBR+FRA
Not sure that’ll work.
Edit, nope. Anyone know how to fix that link? If it’ll work at all in a forum post?
[url= https://i.postimg.cc/NjtZ3rTQ/1-EFBAE4-B-6-FEE-4880-865-C-3-AB3-D21-DEA79.pn g" target="_blank">https://i.postimg.cc/NjtZ3rTQ/1-EFBAE4-B-6-FEE-4880-865-C-3-AB3-D21-DEA79.pn g"/> [/img][/url]
Im sure he tested positive on Weds25th which means he’s done 5 days or 6 at the most if Weds25th and today are classed as full days. I’m sure the protocol is 2weeks isolation for testing positive and 1week isolation for being in close vicinity to a positive even though you have no symptoms. he’s made a very quick recovery, must be some superfit dude.
As already mentioned with people claiming Boris is a special case for being less than 7 days since being tested, it’s 7 days from symptoms starting 14 days for someone in the same household without symptoms.
As we pretty much know, the young and the healthy are (mostly – good on ya Frank!) OK,
Woman on the BBC News just now suggesting that they are seeing more younger people in hospital than they expected. Very much mixed messages and I guess too early to tell
Woman on the BBC News just now suggesting that they are seeing more younger people in hospital than they expected. Very much mixed messages and I guess too early to tell
Younger people can still get very ill but guessing have a better chance of recovery from being very ill. Remember that A LOT of old people die of pneumonia as a final illness.
THere's quite a confusing definition of "younger person" when talking about all this. I've seen people hear "younger people are getting it" which meant anyone under 70, including those with myriad other health conditions. A few steps later someone is using this quote to scare teenagers gathering in the park.
I think the restrictions will be constantly tweaked on and off. Like turning a tap from a water butt on and off.
TheBrick
Member
I think the restrictions will be constantly tweaked on and off. Like turning a tap from a water butt on and off.
can only really be done if we massively ramp up testing
otherwise government have no clear picture where & when they can do that
they are seeing more younger people in hospital than they expected
Than who expected? Lots of people of all ages hospitalised in the countries effected more than us. ‘Younger’ people more likely to ‘recover’ though (which does not necessarily mean undamaged).
30% of under 60s among those hospitalised reported a couple of days ago for France down from 50% under 60s declared a week or so ago. French numbers are conforming more and more to other countries with a majority of over 60s as numbers grow.
While we are into graphs, has anyone compared the growth rate of posts on this thread compared to, say, MOABs Brexit thread?
Some slightly positive news for us.
My sister, husband and two young kids are holed up on an international school compound in South India. They were given 4hrs notice by the government of a full curfew - you can't even go out to get food without threat of arrest or beating by the police. In that time they got about 30 senior students into airport and onto flights with some staff, my sister and husband stayed (as dorm parent) with 15 kids and another 4 families. The police have now cut them off completely (they had a couple of locals bribing the police to bring in a bit more food every few days) and looks like 21 days of lockdown will be extended. Food is running very low.
Presently India is not on the rescue list as airports are still open - the rescue flights are focused on places with closed airports. That said, rumor is reaching them that BA are to run a flight and Foreign Office is trying to contact people to make plans, so they may get out.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52099252
I seem to think I heard someone from the Scottish government being interviewed (and being cut off quite abruptly by the interviewer) on R4 early this am (6-ish?) talking about the lockdown being here for 3 months (i.e. 12-13 weeks)?
There was a specific reference to the marked difference between Scotland’s position ‘always’ saying’ 3 months as opposed to ‘UK’ official position...
Or was I dreaming (or on drugs....)?
Matt - that sounds a nightmare. Hopefully they get out.
I've just assumed the lockdown would be 3 months from the start - it's what China did, seems to be the way the other countries are going.
Can't see schools will go back before the Whit bank holiday, possibly not till September
MCTD: yeah, I think that was the point, Scotland saying it’s three months and the Uk saying Three weeks (and we’ll see.... but it’s three months really)...
Or six... 🙄
( and I’m currently operating under the premise that the (Scottish) schools aren’t going back until August at the earliest)
Or was I dreaming (or on drugs….)?
Hard to tell, I wouldn’t be surprised by either 🙃
Hard to tell
How the hell do you think I feel?
It might just be the 10+ years ‘social distancing’ I got in in advance (wanted to avoid the rush)...
MOAB - that's shit for them and must be concerning for you; hope the british embassy are on the case.
No idea Piemonster, I'm just relaying what's reported.
There was a report last night on how the virus spread in the early stages in France. One of the main points of contamination was a religious meeting in Mulhouse from which people dispersed all over France. One nurse who attended contaminated 200 medical staff in a Strasbourg hospital. That may have influenced the early demographic making it younger than elsewhere but now things seem much the same as Italy or Spain.
One interesting report which extends yet again the times from contamination to hospitalisiation to death is in the Birmingham evening mail:
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/coronavirus-patients-dying-today-caught-18004263
It might just be the 10+ years ‘social distancing’ I got in in advance (wanted to avoid the rush)…
No official announcements but general feeling here is Spanish schools are done until the 20/21 course starts in September. Can't see anywhere else being much different.
Best news of the day Frank!!!
@franksinatra so so glad. I randomly woke up at 4am the other day just as you posted you were going into hospital and was the first post I read! I was so scared for you I just couldn't post anything useful but I was thinking and crossing my fingers ever since.
Personal experience of the testing over in Ireland is a joke. Wife works in healthcare and first showed symptoms a week past on fri and waited 8 days for a test and still no results yet ‘famous’ people get symptoms, get tested rapidly and the results quickly too. The numbers being stated on the news as confirmed cases mean nothing - it’s only the ICU numbers that matter.
Hopefully your family gets back safely Matt.
glad to hear franksinatra is doing well!! rest up man
colleague at local hospital says its withing capacity but getting busier
ad local ice rink has just been requisitioned as an overflow morgue
as for length of lockdown, until testing is set up theres no way for the government to lift it, and it doesnt seem to be going well as hoped
https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1244673954608041987
and this is partly why...
https://twitter.com/adbeggs/status/1244676811843403777
testing was only starting to be ramped up last week, which is a month after Germnany started doing that
Personal experience of the testing over in Ireland is a joke. Wife works in healthcare and first showed symptoms a week past on fri and waited 8 days for a test and still no results yet ‘famous’ people get symptoms, get tested rapidly and the results quickly too. The numbers being stated on the news as confirmed cases mean nothing – it’s only the ICU numbers that matter.
I don't think it's a famous people thing, but location based perhaps.
My dad went in Friday, they originally said test could take a 5-7 days, but he got his result on Sunday which isn't too bad.
I think the issue here is that whilst they don't know, they will try to isolate the individual away from other patients.
Once they know, they can be moved to a dedicated ward and mix with other Covid patients - the longer the tests take, the less likely it is that individuals can be isolated, especially as demand creeps up.
Yeah Dr colleagues have been experiencing long delays in getting test results back, at moment its managable as you say
Don't know what to make of the 3-day-average trend graph posted on the last page. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-3-day-averageThe hopeful side says that we'll now track alongside Germany and France but at a lower level, the more realistic says that this is the equivalent of the temporary dips seen two to three weeks ago in Italy (March 14), and we are due to accelerate again shortly.
Is it right our official cases stand at 22,000, but we have 9000 in hospital? Not sure we can read too much into the figures if that is the case. I thought hospitalisation rates were meant to be below 20%