I'm in the same boat robbo. If my asthmatic wife gets locked down for 12 weeks she doesn't want to be apart from the kids. She's expecting a letter? from gp/phe explaining what the next steps are soon. We need money to pay for stuff so, if it comes to that, I'll be moving out for 3 months and going to work.
I haven’t heard of a single death in the uk that hadn’t had ‘underlying health issues’.
The ones that needed ventilators will have got them.....for now.
It feels like one of those mind scrambling puzzles, you know the answer but because you don't like the answer your brain won't allow you to comprehend it.
'YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH', a few good men :@)
Community projects for volunteers are needed asap but difficult with a virus that discourages interaction. Facebook could actually have a real purpose 👍
We need some long term answers to keep the economy ticking along and it's a perfect time for a new way.
He can’t help himself, can he?
Never in my life have I been as shocked and angry at the actions of a british PM. And I don't think it's just us lefties thinking this. Christ, it's so bad I'm even thinking Michael Gove would be preferable. I understand their reluctance to be seen to be politicising this, but labour need to start speaking out forcefully on Johnson's lack of leadership, especially on the economic issue.
Advice seems pretty clear.
Glad you think so. I still can’t work it out. Kids and teens with underlying health issues could do with a clear statement in the gov guidelines. Parents are having to make it up themselves at the moment.
Individual risk is very very low. 5% of 1.2% means 6 people in every 10000 aged between 20-29 will need critical care (ie a ventilator)
Some quick maths, 65 mil population, say 15% at that age group and 50% get it- almost 3000 people that age would require critical care. Or around 15000 between age of 40-50.
So on an individual level your chances are good , but collectively, thats alot of young deaths if the nhs falls over.
Posted
The imperial paper has it that in an unmitigated scenario 81 percent of the total the population will be infected. That leaves little room for such significant variance in infection rates between age groups. I suspect that there will be differences in infection rates, not sure it will be 30 percent lower than the total infection rate.
Do we have any data on the difference in infection rates between age groups?
Risk ground information can be found here.
but labour need to start speaking out forcefully on Johnson’s lack of leadership
The who? The Labour party? Do they still exist? I'd just assumed they'd called it a day?
On the high risk thing, I read this..Risk factors
On one hand having an addition desease only raises the chances of requiring intensive care by 80% (ie if young the odds are still very much in your favour), yet it then goes on to say 10% of folks with a heart condition/6% with hypertension etc die?
Is that because 10% of folks with heart conditions also just happen to be very old with knackered immune systems and that isn't an adjusted figure taking into account age? As there seems a large discrepancy between the 2 figures.
Also, what constitutes an underlying health issue exactly? My mates dad is a regular cyclist yet 2 years ago had a heart bypass. He's fine and dandy now, can cycle 50 miles no problems..does that count?
Or myself, 20 years of bodily abuse, probably arteries like concrete, now 43 and fitter than I've ever been (aerobically at least).
F, we've got Binners on one and someone just mentioned labour, someone save us! 😆
The who?
Well obviously they're treading a fine line between supporting the national effort and deriving party political advantage, but the silence is becoming frustrating. They can support efforts to suppress the spread of the virus, but have a duty to call out Johnson on the economics and what he's doing to support businesses and people financially.
I don't really see why labour will say anything. All the political parties seem to be taking a non partisan approach to all this. The SNP are basically singing from the same hymn sheet as the Tories on this so far, so that tells us alot.
Perhaps people should notice and wind in their political biases on this one.
but the silence is becoming frustrating. They can support efforts to suppress the spread of the virus, but have a duty to call out Johnson on the economics and what he’s doing to support businesses and people financially.
Indeed. I wonder why that's not happening? Its a mystery...
Agree Dazh.
I haven’t heard of a single death in the uk that hadn’t had ‘underlying health issues’.
I haven't read all their notes or heard a proper elaboration of the terminology and its limits. Say you're 50 and have a bit of a high BP, or maybe you're a well-controlled T2 diabetic or mild asthma. do you fit the definition? If so, can your death be portrayed by the authorities as "had it coming - carry on" ? There's a LOT of those people around
Mrs RNP had a temperature last night and developed a dry cough this morning and is feeling shitty. 14 days Netflix and World of Tanks for me!
14 days Netflix and World of Tanks for me!
Hope you've enough toilet roll😂
for the government website linked above
under 70 with an underlying health condition listed below (ie anyone instructed to get a flu jab as an adult each year on medical grounds):
instructed by whom ? going by the medical opinion all asthma sufferers and diabetics are advised to get a flu jab. Does it require a specific letter from your GP ?
We are middle class Guardian lentil eaters so buy boxes of Who Gives a Crap bamboo tp. Thankfully a delivery arrived before it kicked off plus i stick my arse over the bath and blast my clagnuts off with the shower head.
from what I can understand asthmatics will be included in the group told to stay at home for 12 weeks. How have you understood this? My wife is asthmatic and although she could limit her outside exposure we have a 6 year old. When schools no doubt shut could it mean I have to isolate myself from them so that I can still go to work? Strange times!
I was a bit surprised by that, given that there are 5m of us. I'm making it up as I go along, TBH, with the general principle being to minimise risk rather than lock myself away for 12 weeks. That's obviously easier now noone in the household is leaving home to work. There is still nothing forthcoming from government (that I've seen) on the logistics of feeding up to 15m people they've asked to cocoon themselves.
I was a bit surprised by that, given that there are 5m of us.
They give out inhalers to anyone these days.
You shouldn't get 12 weeks off unless you can correctly identify and operate an Intal Spinhaler.
#oldschool #pumpaction
plus i stick my arse over the bath and blast my clagnuts off with the shower head.
The old Bradford Bidet.
RM.
Remdesivir is an experimental broad-spectrum antiviral drug originally designed to target Ebola.
Researchers have found that remdesivir is highly effective at fighting the novel coronavirus in isolated cellsTrusted Source.
This treatment is not yet approved in humans, but two clinical trials for this drug have been implemented in China. One clinical trial was recently also approved by the FDA in the United States.
Now I appreciate the need for caution, but given the options for other treatment in the coming months will probably be limited (judging by italy), is it not maybe worth throwing caution to wind regarding clinical trials.
I mean it's highly likely that when it peaks there will not be enough staff or equipment to treat everyone. At which point if i was at back of queue for a ventilator I'd be delighted if they pumped me full of any drugs that gave me a fighting chance, fda approved or not.
Unless of course there is the risk of some kind of 'I am Legend' scenario occuring ..
Re underlying health conditions - Radio 5Live last night a reporter said something along the lines of "We don't know if any of the fatalities were brought in to hospital with Covid 19 or if they were already in hospital getting treatment and were infected in hospital"
The way they said it and the way the main presenter ignored the obvious follow up made me wonder if reporters sources had let something slip.
One of the chaps behind the modelling that caused the change in policy was on R4 this morning.
He said the measures were to prevent a death toll of 250,000 and limit it to tens of thousands.
Sounds like he is being leant on to me as the 250,000 figure feels like a best case to me whatever we do next.
Incidentally (and slightly mischievous of me) will Whitty, Vallence and anyone else that gets put in front of a microphone have had to sign the Official Secrets Act first?
Hopefully some of those ^^^^^^^^^^ existing drugs will work. We at least know they are suitable for human use and can be manufactured.
Incidentally (and slightly mischievous of me) will Whitty, Vallence and anyone else that gets put in front of a microphone have had to sign the Official Secrets Act first?
You need to sign it to achieve even the barest levels of Security Clearance.
You shouldn’t get 12 weeks off unless you can correctly identify and operate an Intal Spinhaler.
I was an old hand at that. Made f all difference to my asthma, mind you.
We don’t know if any of the fatalities were brought in to hospital with Covid 19 or if they were already in hospital getting treatment and were infected in hospital”
Anecdotally have heard a few stories now about people with other conditions getting nursed in the same bay as a confirmed Covid19 patient.
Plus, the tens of thousands claim is clearly bollocks.
Even if this was 2x or 3x normal seasonal flu mortality, they wouldn't be shitting it like this.
Keep in mind the imperial report didn’t factor in the increased death rate of the ICU beds being not available for 7 out 8 that needed them! So would be a lot higher than 250K if You factor nhs capacity.
It also says we need to act now with the schools.
From what I’ve seen over the last 3-4 weeks is a huge amount of people in denial as to the seriousness of this, despite the available evidence and seeing what is going on in Italy.
I’m wondering if they are intentionally holding back a bit so the ICU beds do run out and a few younger people do die in hospital corridors, so people take the containment measures seriously.
In M'sia they have just recorded three death: one 34 yr old (from religious gathering), 60 year old (with underlying illness) and a pastor (from wedding ceremony). They did not say if the 34 yr old had underlying illness. If equatorial climate can't stop it then cooler climate may become even a major problem.
One of the chaps behind the modelling that caused the change in policy was on R4 this morning.
I know Neil and used to be in the group. We are currently two weeks behind Italy in cases and deaths and tracking them very closely. It does not take a huge inductive logic to say that without intervention Italy is what is coming. Too early and everyone cries wolf, too late is too late. The doubling time for cases and deaths is currently 2.5 to 3 days and intervention will hopefull reduce this. We need to slow epidemic growth because the resource is limited. As for underlying conditions - so what? Those people will need treating, and there is currently an unlimited supply of susceptibles with such conditions to tie up the health services. Preventing mixing is really the only available option. I would have gone further, personally.
^^^^^
But 'tens of thousands' is not realistic, is it?
Whilst predictions of deaths are the headline figure journos like, and there is much uncertainty in parameters underlying transmission (that everyone ignores), when you are >95% certain that all reasonable scenarios will swamp available (and already stretched) health care, you must act. That's the decision that was taken. Probably a bit later than one would have liked. But days do matter in the early exponential epidemic phase.
instructed by whom ? going by the medical opinion all asthma sufferers and diabetics are advised to get a flu jab. Does it require a specific letter from your GP ?
Normally they’ll send a letter, email, use local media as well as the numerous TV and Radio adverts informing people who are or may be legible.
Individual risk is very very low. 5% of 1.2% means 6 people in every 10000 aged between 20-29 will need critical care (ie a ventilator)
also worth noting that if your ill enough to be stuck in ITU for a couple of weeks, then your body will have gone through hell and can very often have long term problems after
so for everyone who dies in ITU, the other one that survives will need further healthcare
Just been to the supermarket for a few oddments (needed bin bags mainly) and people are STILL panic-buying!! All I've bought extra of is Crunchy Nut Cornflakes and cans of Pepsi for work next week.
Why are people sticking up on gallons of mineral water? I don't think anywhere has had any issues with their water supply?
People are morons.
It really is that simple
I'm nearly out of Vimto. For a northerner this is a potential life and death situation. I may panic buy two bottles
I do wonder if we’ll get a Boris U-turn on the bars and restaurants thing tomorrow…
Some hopes all he has done is tell customers to stay away which means not triggering insurance claims. Which has nothing to do with BJ getting a third of his day job salary for one evening of standup at the insurance society annual diner.
So it's looking increasingly like the experts that questioned Johnson and Whitty were right.
What a surprise, I hope that teaches those that tell actual experts to shut up and listen to "the best possible science" a lesson.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51915302
This realisation has happened only in the past few days.
However, it is long after other scientists and the World Health Organization had warned of the risks of not going all-out to stop the virus.
LOL!
Maybe our "best possible science" is ****ing shock horror, not better than the rest of the worlds. Really utterly shocked that we've displayed epic incompetence again - not.
At yesterdays press conference it was said that London was "weeks" ahead of the rest of the country, and we're also told we're two weeks behind Italy. Surely that would suggest that London should already be in total lockdown?
Aaaaannnd……..I goes to pack bags.
You shouldn’t get 12 weeks off unless you can correctly identify and operate an Intal Spinhaler.
My good god theres a blast from the past! I'd forgotten all about them 🙂
