Before anyone says we treat obsese folk or whatever someone eating a donut isn’t keeping my kids out of school.
The CDC suggests that obesity potentially triples your chances of being hospitalised with Covid, so I'm not sure this statement is entirely accurate. In fact it has often been speculated to be one of the reasons for the high death tolls in Western countries. Even without Covid, obesity is one of the biggest (yet avoidable) problems that health services face in the UK. It's been a known problem for a long time.
The idea that we don't treat specific groups due to whatever life choices they've made is a slippery slope.
The idea that we don’t treat specific groups due to whatever life choices they’ve made is a slippery slope.
No, but life choices of minority are having drastic negative impacts on the rest of society.
Data from Northern Ireland* (but it will mirror other areas):
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I don't necessarily have to have a position, I'm just questioning the supposed logic of something that has a massive effect on society as a whole...and it being used as solely for the purpose of bringing Covid deaths down. Because there's no other benefits from lockdowns as far as I can see?
Obesity is not contagious like Covid.
Maybe it’s time to protect the NHS by not treating people have chosen not to get vaccinated then there’s be no need for a lockdown as the NHS wouldn’t get overrun
Bit harsh (edit: appreciate you might not be 100% serious). But if we do ever reach the stage where the NHS has become overrun, and people are dying in hospital carparks, I would favour an approach of prioritising those who did all they could to help themselves and others (ie. get vaccinated unless medically unfit) over those who chose not to. Thankfully feels very unlikely at this stage though.
I do think some people are too dogmatic in their support of a lockdown. Lets imagine that in a few weeks, we have enough data to conclude that:
- Omicron spreads among today's mostly vaccinated population just as easily as the first wave spread in an unvaccinated population
- If a vaccinated person gets omicron, they are far less likely (say 85%, or call it x) to get seriously ill than an unvaccinated person with original covid
What value of x would change you support for a lockdown? 0% would effectively mean the same situation as the very first lockdown. What about 50%? 100%?
Lockdowns cost a lot of money, which could be spent in many other good ways, and have many more non-financial costs too.
For me, there is a clear threshold where hospitals are in danger of becoming overrun, at which point lockdowns become far more appealing.
Obesity is not contagious like Covid.
However, 78% of Covid hospitalisations were obese.*
It's a large factor in the severity of the disease.
*Again, from the CDC
Lets imagine that in a few weeks, we have enough data ......
The argument is act now and if we're wrong, OK we can change. Act a week too late and it costs lives and many weeks to claw that back. The threshold where hospitals look like being overrun is already too late. Or rather - that's what the modellers are saying they can see coming already. And back to the top......
The argument for restrictions right now is that without them, we are likely to have millions of new infections per day over the next week or two, tens of millions in total. Even with only a small proportion getting seriously ill, this is liable to completely overwhelm the NHS and kill many people who would survive in a more flattened scenario.
It's not about suppression. If people have fewer parties and stay away from groups, it will still go through the population anyway, but at a less extraordinary rate.
We might already be at or very close to a million infections per day.
For me, there is a clear threshold where hospitals are in danger of becoming overrun, at which point lockdowns become far more appealing.
I don't think anyone is disagreeing, but with doubling rates of less than three days, waiting for hospitals to start waving he white flag will be far too late.
However, 78% of Covid hospitalisations were obese.*
Yes, though someone who is obese is only harming themselves. Someone who is unvacinated and/or ignoring the guidance to wear masks, going to crowded pubs etc is potentially spreading Covid to multiple people.
I don’t really want folk to die but as I said I’ve heard from a number of folk this week. I know this won’t be a popular option but some people who’ve been scared into not taking a vaccine by the crap there Facebook feed has thrown have essentially been groomed by the anti vaxers and are in a way cpvictims themselves. I actually think those that create and spread that stuff should be charged with manslaughter. There’s big money in antivax, Andrew Wakefield is now multimillionaire and lives with Ellie Macpherson, not bad for causing the death of hundreds if not thousands of children.
I would favour an approach of prioritising those who did all they could to help themselves and others (ie. get vaccinated unless medically unfit) over those who chose not to.
So the obese individuals would perish in the car park?
We have it so much easier than last year. And it’ll be easier again next year. We’re not at “do nothing” or “back to normal” yet though.
Very true. My daughter had 5 schoolfriends round today for a birthday party - they all tested before coming, they are at schooltigether 5 days a week, relatively low risk in the circumstances.
We couldn't do that this time last year.
So the obese individuals would perish in the car park?
I was more focussing on prioritising those who had done their bit to help the pandemic (as mentioned above, obesity isn't infectious). But I'll still take the bait. Hypothetically assuming all else being equal (including the chance of hospital treatment being effective), yes. How would you suggest prioritising? A coin toss?
Fair point about waiting for it to become apparent that hospitals will be overrun means it will be too late to help. It was more of a thought exercise.
How would you suggest prioritising? A coin toss?
How about clinical need?
Surely the obese would last longer in a cold car park than the skinny runts with no fat on them to stay warm?
How about clinical need?
Sorry, I had edited to add "(including the chance of hospital treatment being effective)" immediately after re-reading my post
And further edit, I guess I have just implied that the vaccinated person only gets priority in a dead heat, but I would still give the person with the biggest chance of benefit access to the single remaining hospital bed. So I'm not really making a particularly meaningful point. I guess I'm just frustrated by people who have chosen not to be vaccinated and would like there to be some negative consequence for them. Maybe we could bar them from large non-essential public gatherings? Everyone agree with that right? Oh wait.
How would you suggest prioritising? A coin toss?
You can’t prioritise the vaccinated because they are the people who have less need. There’s only one way to avoid prioritising people and that’s to reduce infections. As far as I’m concerned mandatory vaccination is the only way to go. I can’t get my head around accepting all the negative effects of lockdowns to protect the rights of people who refuse to be vaccinated.
So the obese individuals would perish in the car park?
If they're not vaccinated then yes.
We're wrestling the COVID gorilla and we don't get to stop until it is tired.
I can’t get my head around accepting all the negative effects of lockdowns to protect the rights of people who refuse to be vaccinated.
Pretty much sums up where I’m at.
But apparently if you actually say that then you’re some sort of fascist dictator who’s worse than Hitler
Yes, though someone who is obese is only harming themselves. Someone who is unvacinated and/or ignoring the guidance to wear masks, going to crowded pubs etc is potentially spreading Covid to multiple people.
The point is, whether you're unvaccinated or obese, you're dramatically adding to hospital numbers, which is the primary issue.
I get the frustration with anti-vaxxers and I often feel the same. However...
... some people who’ve been scared into not taking a vaccine by the crap there Facebook feed has thrown have essentially been groomed by the anti vaxers and are in a way cpvictims themselves
I know some genuinely nice, and kind people who are anti-vax. They're just scared.
I know some genuinely nice, and kind people who are anti-vax. They’re just
scared.a bit thick
FTFY
Almost 50% of us are below average intelligence.
^ That's not really a good reason to limit healthcare either.
But apparently if you actually say that then you’re some sort of fascist dictator
If the choice is repeated lockdowns or mandatory vaccination then it’s a no-brainer. The only other option is to let it rip which is clearly where Boris and the nutters are. If that’s where we’re going then those who aren’t prepared to sacrifice hundreds of thousands need to make themselves heard rather than staying quiet. At the moment all the noise is coming from the nutters.
To be fair to the anti-vaxxers they’re conducting a valuable service to evolution by sacrificing themselves in the pursuit of pure Darwinist theory.
They’re helping the gene pool cleanse itself
How about clinical need?
^^^^ this
That’s not really a good reason to limit healthcare either.
^^^^ and this
The only other option is to let it rip which is clearly where Boris and the nutters are.
I'm not sure who the nutters are but Boris, as you call him, went for a policy which was backed by the Labour Party.
And binners can't make up his mind. Earlier he said that only swivel-eyed loons were questioning the need for a lockdown, but now he agrees that he can’t get his head around to accepting all the negative effects of lockdowns just to protect the rights of people who refuse to be vaccinated.
It’s not too difficult to get your head around surely?
The swivel-eyed loons who won’t accept any lockdown are the very same swivel-eyed loons who won’t get vaccinated, wear masks or accept any restrictions whatsoever on their divine right to do whatever the * they like, with a compete and total disregard for anyone other than ME, ME, ME!
What Daz is saying, and I whole-heartedly agree with is why the * should the rest of have to continue to make sacrifices so that these selfish, shit-thick *s can carry on with their ‘right’ to be selfish, shit-thick *s?
Right now we have a PM who knows that these selfish, shit-thick *s, who populate his own backbenches, will oppose any proposed restrictions.
So therefore, because he won’t want to have to rely on the Labour Party again to get things passed, as this further undermines him making him look even weaker, the selfish, shit-thick *s are having a dangerously disproportionate influence on policy in a time of national crisis
They will actively prevent getting things done that need to be done if we’re ever to get out of this pandemic.
Which bit of that are you struggling with? Because it all seems pretty simple to me
The “swivel-eyed loons” don’t just oppose social measures to reduce transmission, they oppose everything… mandatory vaccinations of health and care staff… a system for ensuring people are vaccinated or tested before attending events… they are not choosing one set of methods over another… those that support a different set of measures I can understand… those who just want us to act as if the virus isn’t here, those that simply want to oppose reality, rather than propose a different way of dealing with reality, are the big problem. And these are the same MPs who worked to make Johnson MP. It’s a dangerous situation.
I absolutely abhor the whole anti-vax thing. There was a bloody sticker on a path marker right in the middle of a woods today on the North Downs. I took much pleasure scraping it off whilst swearing at the idiocy.
However, at a societal level, we have to find a way to convince/ compel/make them accept the vaccine for the greater good.
If we don't and we resort to treating them as disposable we are just as bad as them.
I'm totally for excluding them from much of what society has to offer, their choice has consequences, but not the right to medical treatment.
I completely get the anger and frustration with them though, as I feel it too!
If you weren’t worried already about the lack of will to do what’s needed, neither the fly-tipped sofa nor Rishi bothered to turn up for the COBRA meeting. Instead they apparently left it to be hosted by fully paid up ‘swivel-eyed loon’ Steve Baker
He’s stepped aside and outsourced policy-making directly to the headbangers
I’m sure it’ll all work out fine
What scared the shit out of me in the early days of the pandemic was listening to the accounts of the doctors and nurses in northern Italy who were having to triage covid patients, where they had only one bed (albeit in a tent in the carpark) for every 15 people needing it, and even fewer ventilators.
Who got the bed seemed to be based on co-morbidities (those without were prioritised), age (younger patients prioritised), and heartbreakingly: impact (those with young children tending to get prioritised). All anecdotal of course
Hopefully we have moved on a bit from that - but in a situation where the ICUs are beyond capacity, it will be interesting to see where being (voluntarily) unvaccinated puts you.
bit of a NSW update:
The number of people with COVID-19 in NSW’s hospitals jumped more than 15 per cent in the 24 hours to 8pm yesterday after the state recorded 2,501 new cases.
No new deaths in the last 24 hours
Of the 33 people in intensive care units, 26 are unvaccinated.
Worth noting that 2,500 daily cases is insanely high for us. We were fully locked-down, schools closed etc at 1,500 cases of delta.
Our new (conservative) Premier is marching ahead with his "opening up" agenda - mask mandates and QR code check-ins were binned-off last week, as were most restrictions on what the unvaccinated can/can't do. I would say mask wearing (at least in Sydney) is now at about 50% - maybe a bit higher, which is interesting given it's no longer required. I think most people are imagining that mask wearing will return in the coming few days/weeks - and there are lots of people who are already acting accordingly. The Australian Medical association are pushing hard for masks to return.
Vaccinations are going well: Australia is 90/94% single/double dosed (NSW 93/95%), but importantly: almost all of that was basically done in the last half of this year.... which bodes well for protection. Australia's vaccination "stroll-out" paying dividends!
Boosters are now being offered to anyone once they are 5 months post 2nd dose - but they've also just said that anyone who is due to hit 5 months over Christmas/early Jan can come forward now. Had mine this morning, walked around the corner to my local pharmacy - loads of people there as they are doing walk-ins..... it seems like the message has got through.
Will be interesting (as ever) to see how the US fare with Omicron..... they are stuck at about 60% fully vaccinated I think? Also, 17M of them have had J&J - which is basically regarded as placebo these days I understand. More worrying: Much of APAC has had Sinopharm which (along with Sputnik) also seems also to be left wanting when it comes to omicron
Lockdowns would be alright if they were done early enough (so they can be short and you don't end up with a dead granny) and with a defined end date - it seems the undefined/uncontrollable nature of lockdowns is what affects mental health.
This Omicron variant needing a lockdown was obvious as soon as it appeared. They should have done a two week lockdown mid December, let folk have a more relaxed Christmas then maybe done another two weeks in January.
The “swivel-eyed loons” don’t just oppose social measures to reduce transmission, they oppose everything… mandatory vaccinations of health and care staff…
According to binners 100 Tory who voted against Johnson's Covid restrictions are "swivel-eyed loons”, although conveniently he fails to answer my question whether all the LibDem MPs who voted with them are also "swivel-eyed loons”.
Neither does he explain when they became swivel-eyed loons, I am assuming that they weren't swivel-eyed loons when they voted in favour of earlier lockdowns. Or do you simply become a swivel-eyed loon whenever you disagree with binners?
Btw binners your profanity laden earlier rant makes you sound a tad like a, well, a swivel-eyed loon, if you don't mind me saying.
I can’t get my head around accepting all the negative effects of lockdowns to protect the rights of people who refuse to be vaccinated.
They also protect those who can't be vaccinated, and those who are vaccinated but are still vulnerable.
They also protect those who have a heart attack, or an asthma attack, or fall off their bike and need urgent hospital treatment.
All of which we've done to death over the last 18 months. We're all ****ing tired of it, but we need to pull up our big boy pants and get on with it. Hopefully the vaccine, boosters, wider immunity through exposure and changes to the virus will mean future waves and variants will be less disruptive.
And the point the swivel eyed LibDems were trying to make - wrongly imo - was that Covid passports were less effective and accurate than a negative LFT, ignoring how easy it is to fake one. They weren't against restrictions, they were some of these restrictions.
If there is as a lockdown over Christmas, I'll just work on Christmas day instead.
At least that way I can have folk over and drink some wine and eat cheese with them.
I’m totally for excluding them from much of what society has to offer, their choice has consequences, but not the right to medical treatment.
Very much this. The concept of refusing to treat the misinformed, no matter how much damage they are causing is morally bankrupt.
If there is as a lockdown over Christmas, I’ll just work on Christmas day instead.
At least that way I can have folk over and drink some wine and eat cheese with them.
You know, it’s really been quite some time since I’ve worked somewhere you could have a drink during working hours. I’d say maybe 20 to 25 years.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-59699891
My local hospital, 80% of covid patients are unvaccinated. Astonishing when you think that 80% of the local population are vaccinated.
If there is as a lockdown over Christmas, I’ll just work on Christmas day instead.
At least that way I can have folk over and drink some wine and eat cheese with them.
I was thinking the same. I'm executor to both my Mum and Dad and my MiL's estate. I suddenly feel the need to discuss some details with them, in an entirely business focused meeting.
The loones may have voted for earlier lockdown but they also forced Johnson to end the Nov 2020 lockdown when it clearly needed to be kept in place for longer, resulting in the much severe lockdown in Jan 2020 probably resulting in 10,000 of extra deaths. A quote from this mornings Telelgraph when Whitty and Valance came to the cabinet to present the latest data "The data was trashed by the cabinet, we tore them apart". So Liz Truss and Reece Mogg are now expert epidemiologist. No they are morons playing politics with peoples lives and livlyhoods. We are now in the worse possible situation with not enough restrictions to stop it spreading super fast but no support for businesses crippled by people limiting their interactions, feels just like March 2020 all over again.
The concept of refusing to treat the misinformed, no matter how much damage they are causing is morally bankrupt.
But then again, hypothetically if one individual (fully vaccinated) and another individual (non vaccinated because it’s full of 5 g microchips) were in competition for the last icu bed in the hospital, who would you think is more deserving of getting it ?
Hopefully it’ll never come down to that but it may….
You know, it’s really been quite some time since I’ve worked somewhere you could have a drink during working hours
You need to try working from home. Or be the prime minister.
The concept of refusing to treat the misinformed, no matter how much damage they are causing is morally bankrupt.
While there's a good supply of ICU beds no problem at all, once the hospitals are struggling and beds are limited then no jabs, no treatment.
