Interesting about the 90 day guidance changing to include lfts now
Was what we were told at the end of August, and certainly what son's university are going with.
Agree about the lack of clarity in the messaging again, but I think it's easy to overthink it. No tests for 90 days.
Can't argue with that.
The speed of recruitment should have been a flag though, combined with site staff numbers. (Has triggered for cause audits for us).
Why the lol (I only mentioned it as otherwise like everything it sounds like someone sounding off with no knowledge, plus you mentioned working at a cro)?
but I think it’s easy to overthink it
If I’m going to have to be the awkward one who tells my kid’s school that they will be attending but not taking the LFT they currently require, it would be nice to have some actual government guidance to point to, rather than repeating what someone said on the internet. There must be some, in fact there should be some specifically for schools… and someone here will know about it and be able to point to it, I’m hoping.
I’m sure that the test and trace people told me not to retest when I spoke to them after my daughters positive test.
School also advised us that daughter doesn’t need to test for 90 days but can if she wants - but if a positive is false then where’s the value in doing it?
Advice is here Guidance after testing positive
However even that is a bit odd, saying that shouldn’t test within 90days unless have symptoms, but if do a LFT and +ve then follow guidance again! It’s very confusing I agree.
Kelvin - LFT’s aren’t compulsory for school kids are they? You could just stop for 90 days then restart without telling anyone.
Orals for Christmas. That was rapid.
That is great news Tired.
The essential second string along with vaccines
Good news. Would it tackle the antivaxxer problem? I'm guessing they wouldn't take anti virals either but if enough people in general do, then the virus in circulation drops?
I just checked the stats for Croydon. Unchanged, stuck at just 59% of adults double vaxed. Although on a positive note, current case numbers remain well below the national average.
How much of this do we have available?
If my mum tests positive can I get her this prescribed via the GP?
It might not fully tackle the anti vaxx problem, but i would hope it helps. Unless of course we start seeing the idiots posting about tablets containing 5g or channing dna.
That might be a step too far for them as it would by extension mean they have to doubt all their medicine.
I'm more interested in the ability of it to mitigate breakthrough cases rapidly rather than relying on isolation (which we know a lot have been ignoring).
It all helps
Orals for Christmas. That was rapid.
Thoughts on its potentially harmful mutagenic side affects?
Why the lol (I only mentioned it as otherwise like everything it sounds like someone sounding off with no knowledge, plus you mentioned working at a cro)?
I only found it funny to discover I was talking to a GCP auditor…. Because of course I am: this is STW. I’m a project director.
Advice is here Guidance after testing positive
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-stay-at-home-guidance/stay-at-home-guidance-for-households-with-possible-coronavirus-covid-19-infection
That's exactly the link I found. It's clear as mud but bits I'm hanging on to and referring my work and school to are:
Anyone who has previously received a positive COVID-19 PCR test result should not be re-tested within 90 days of that test, unless they develop any new symptoms of COVID-19.
That's NO testing unless there are new symptoms
If, however, you do have an LFD antigen test within 90 days of a previous positive COVID-19 PCR test, for example as part of a workplace or community testing programme,
This is the really muddy bit. But voluntary testing for Work or School is NOT a workplace or community testing programme.
Orals for Christmas.
I thought that was only for birthdays?
Great news, I wonder what the prescribing guidelines will be, presumably anyone from a vulnerable group?
MHRA approval is for those at high risk
From the press release
'Molnupiravir is approved for use in people with mild to moderate COVID-19 and at least one risk factor for developing severe illness. Such risk factors include obesity, old age (> 60 years), diabetes, or heart disease.'
Batfink, i never assume anything on here anymore, there have been too many things that have raised my eyebrows by now.
I am having to be careful on this thread because of who i work for and our policies on commenting on company products. That probably gives away the company, it isn't pfizer though
I think it is so important that ‘organisations associated with the NHS’ are squeaky clean and use precise language.
Absolutely agree with this, but this sort of thing costs money, and we all know that faceless paperpushers are a waste of time and all the NHS budget should be spent on nurses don't we (/sarcasm).
THe four hours target was a political stunt - it doesn't actually make A&E better. See here for a really good explanation of why (with stickmen). https://inspguilfoyle.wordpress.com/2015/03/28/the-wrong-conversation/
And remember - collecting, auditing and publishing these targets also takes money.
It’s very confusing I agree.
Indeed…
If, however, you do have an LFD antigen test within 90 days of a previous positive COVID-19 PCR test, for example as part of a workplace or community testing programme, and the result of this test is positive, you and your household should self-isolate and follow the steps in this guidance again
Exactly, which is why I said that IF advice has changed for schools and workplaces, rather than just in care settings, where in government guidance does it say so? Need to be able to point to that if refusing to take LFTs for 90 days, or choosing to ignore positive results.
Kelvin – LFT’s aren’t compulsory for school kids are they?
Yes, but no way of staff checking. Our secondary has a twice a week testing routine, with a stay at home instruction if positive.
You could just stop for 90 days then restart without telling anyone.
Of course you could. Or you could just never test and always claim it was negative. And the suspicion is that many are doing that anyway. No proof required.
voluntary testing for Work or School is NOT a workplace
Depends on the school. I know teachers sent home for refusing to do LFT… they were in for a shock when they discovered they weren’t on full pay when at home… soon got onboard. Look, most workplaces and schools will no doubt take the “I’m not testing for 90 days” reasoning and let you carry on attending… but it would seem sensible to have clear published advice to that effect, wouldn’t it.
Anyway, both of them have been getting negative LFTs anyway, so it doesn’t really matter to us.
Need to be able to point to that if refusing to take LFTs for 90 days,
Are you being challenged for not doing tests or is this a hypothetical situation?
My lad isn't being challenged at uni for not doing tests, I've not heard of daughters school challenging anyone not doing LFTs
Kelvin - my kids school has a 2xLFT policy too, but its purely voluntary. I don't think a school can mandate it. We test, but didn't for 4 weeks after infection.
(Just read your most recent post, not trying to get into a circular discussion)
Thoughts on its potentially harmful mutagenic side affects?
Since it is a short-term therapy, largely given to the elderly (i.e., women of nonchildbearing potential), there will be little risk. There will, however be strict contraception guidelines for its use. Normally five half-lives and it is a short-acting drug.
The mechanism of action is to disrupt the mRNA polymerase, effectively making all mutations, on the grounds that mutations are not viable. I would imagine the virology from the pivotal trial will be scrutinized, as will a post-marketing surveillance commitment. That notwithstanding, this is tamiflu for the at-risk. It showed a halving of hospitalsiations, from a very high 14%. How well it works in a population where the rate is less than 14% remains to be tested.
It is good news (I think) for many like mrs_oab who are high risk, permanently disrupted/non-working/suppressed immune systems. Belt and braces obviously, avoiding getting it remains priority, but if you do, it seems pretty effective.
Murray - that seems to be formalising what was said very early in the pandemic.
Murray – that seems to be formalising what was said very early in the pandemic.
That genetic/race aspect went rather quiet, I thought they'd started saying it was poverty that was the bigger factor, so the race issue was indirect, as more BAME live in poverty.
Interesting read though.
Some more good news
The covididiots have already started their fightback against the Pfizer paxlovid drug by saying that full clinical trials have not been carried out, the trial was stopped early due to the fact that the drug was so effective and Pfizer wanted to get it to market quickly, but they are saying that the drug was killing those in the trials and Pfizer needs to recoup manufacturing costs.
Pile their bodies high in the streets, absolutely zero ****s given for stupid folk.
Half of me wants to reserve these new drugs for the vaccinated, or those clinically unable to be so. If yo don't care for others, why should we care for you? Of course, the other half of me has a heart.
The Pfizer results are remarkable. I suspect they came a surprise to the company too, since many of their development studies are still ongoing. It has antibody like efficacy in a pill. In the same population with same background rate of hospitalisation. I’m impressed.
It works by blocking an enzyme that breaks open the code after the virus has entered the cell. This is enzyme (polymerase) is similar in all coronaviruses. So even better. It’s not all good news. The drug is removed very quickly, so another called ritonavir is given as well to block the escape route.
I’ll be interested in resistance and escape. As will the MHRA. Previous studies with this target show that resistance pops up easily, but the mutants are very poor replicas and grow slowly. Could be even better news.
As for distribution, we’ll cast your mind back to 2009. Then it was call GP and send someone to collect tamiflu from the pharmacy. Given the virtual GP switch, perhaps we’ll see the same.
Lateral flow? Symptoms? Take medicine out of the cupboard. Who knows. Will depend on the price of course. But this is a great result.
[tl:dr] Pfizer drug looks like an antibody in a pill with impressive results in those at risk.
The covididiots have already started their fightback against the Pfizer paxlovid drug by saying that full clinical trials have not been carried out, the trial was stopped early due to the fact that the drug was so effective and Pfizer wanted to get it to market quickly, but they are saying that the drug was killing those in the trials and Pfizer needs to recoup manufacturing costs.
I wonder whether they will still have the courage of their convictions when they are racked with fever, finding it hard to catch their breath, and their O2 levels are dropping like a stone. Funny how many fervent US antivaxxers are suddenly happy to receive novel antibody treatments when the shit hits the fan.
The government covid data platform (coronavirus.data.gov.uk) seems to have switched from reporting the number of people in intensive care to the number of people on ventilation. Did anyone else notice (or am I misremembering)?
Also is it automatically the same number? Or can you be in intensive care without being on ventilation?
It’s always shown that.
Daily admissions
Number in hospital
Number on mechanical ventilation.
It’s always shown that.
Daily admissions
Number in hospital
Number on mechanical ventilation.
The Scottish data is the number in ICU regardless of whether or not they are on ventilation.
It’s always shown that.
Yes, I think so:
Other summaries might have used the ICU occupancy figures to help show the pressures on healthcare, but the dashboard graphs have showed the same for the last year.
Admissions lag cases by 8 days in the U.K. and deaths by 18 days. So ventilations will be somewhere in between. Probably closer to the 8 since people go downhill pretty fast when admitted.
Number in ITU was collated from a different source and there is the ICNARC study that collates this information and reports it.
Cases appear to be waning, but in Europe they are surging. We haven’t seen the same surge because we had much higher cases already. We are also confounded be school half term. They aren’t waning in Scotland.
They have been very steady in scotland for the last month or so. 2500 to 3000 cases per day and and 20 to 3o deaths per day sadly
a few of the areas that consistently had high numbers are now lower and some of the areas that avoided high case load are now higher
the western isles and orkney are the highest per 100 thousand whilst glasgow city and edinburgh are the lowest in the whole of scotland
its strange , is that a sign of herd immunity ?
We are also confounded be school half term
In my school (south Somerset) we had 200+ off isolating the week before half-term.
Was down to 35ish last week, but was rising again by the end of the week.
Definitely some kids positive for a second time. A yr11 in one of my classes had it in February, and tested positive again before half-term.
Unfortunately I've now got it 😟 double jabbed, but full symptoms. 3 days in now and still feeling shitty!
Balls! Get well soon Tom!
In our area the infection rates have dropped considerably, however hospital admissions are high.
The reason was explained by scientists as many elderly not taking up their booster, or the booster jab being taken too late, so waning antibodies.
a few of the areas that consistently had high numbers are now lower and some of the areas that avoided high case load are now higher
the western isles and orkney are the highest per 100 thousand whilst glasgow city and edinburgh are the lowest in the whole of scotland
its strange , is that a sign of herd immunity ?
I was thinking along the same lines. I first thought about this a few weeks ago when the Scottish case rate was soaring above the English numbers. And now the situation has been repeated on a more local scale. It's as if the virus is running out of targets in the areas where it was previously prevalent. Of course, the situation could change with waning immunity and/or another variant.
Herd immunity means that the effective rate of reproduction, or Rt, is about unity in the absence of contact restrictions. So it’s not behaviours but immunity that controls spread. We’re probably fairly close, because we are, with the exception of widespread office working, largely back to normal behaviours. The reproduction number is about unity, which means cases rise and fall relatively slowly. Cases have been doubling with Delta Plus every 28 days. Certainly much slower than previously. And they appear to be declining. Until a new variant.
Big queues, presumably for boosters, at a small local vaccination centre I rode past on Saturday. MrsMC had her booster the weekend before and had a long wait, as the centre normally handles 300 a day but 600 were booked in.
Will boosters be affected by the closure of the big mass vaccination centres? Have we got capacity to top up all those folks who were being processed through those earlier in the year?
A new paper on revaccination antibody titers just published in JAMA from Israel makes for some sober reading https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2786096
From the paper there were 97 boosters given an average of 221 days after last vaccination to an elderly population (median age was 70 years).
Titer before booster 440 AU/mL
Titer after booster 25,468 AU/mL
Let's assume that the after titer looks a bit like the titer at the end of their second dose, then that is a fall of 25468/440 = 58x in 221 days, or a half-life for antibody titer of 221(days) x log(2)/log(58) = 38 days. Amount of protection from infection, symptoms, hospitalisation and death will depend on absolute antibody titer, but protection is halving about every month and a bit. That rate was noted previously by Vaccine Efficacy studies in the US.
Annual boosters. With influenza vaccine.
Just got back from going into the shopping centre in Cardiff and despite it still being mandatory to wear a mask indoors here there were very few people using one, about 1 in 10 roughly. Lots of people hugging, shaking hands and acting all normal. All of the one way markers have gone too meaning groups of people are forming everywhere. Most shop staff are still wearing masks but screens have definitely been removed.
It's no wonder the case rate here is going through the roof.
I have had my second test and trace ping in a fortnight today.
The only event I have been at is the event with one of our cabinet members and a pile of London based folk who travelled to COP26. Everyone else I have been in contact with is family, friend or work colleague - none of whom have been pinged.
It is a different text from the one I had with a Scottish Test and Trace last week (of a known contact).
I am now watching the news for an isolating minister...we were in same (very, very large) room for an hour.
Ah ok - thanks for other people’s recollection on the ICU / ventilation spec. Hadn’t looked at the numbers for a while.
I was just reading something in the New Scientist about Iran where covid appears to be gradually working its way round the population a second time without much of a firebreak from previous infection. Herd immunity without vaccination isn’t a thing if the researchers are interpreting death rates accurately.
I’m wondering whether herd immunity can even be a thing with vaccination-only strategy at the rate at which efficacy wanes. There just seems to be a miasma of covid doing the rounds, which will roll from one area to another then back again, with a boost from the next variant to boot.
I’m sitting on a train where I’m one of about 20% of people wearing masks and thoroughly depressed at the prospect.
