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The Coronavirus Dis...
 

The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.

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I have that today, with a stiff back, neck and shoulders. But I did an MTB race yesterday and recovered with half a bottle of Malbec last night so am confused with the cause.

I admit it does sound like classic hangover symptoms, but I don't drink, and neither does my 8yr old son.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 12:01 pm
 Drac
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This is the problem with abandoning testing. We’re going to have an entire country of people not knowing whether they should go out or not and panicking over when they’re going to get it and whether they’re infecting others

Where as with testing they don’t know if to go out or not as they’re not sure while they wait for the test, where as given basic symptoms for self isolation rules makes it easier to know when to.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 12:03 pm
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Would you volunteer a d n r if it came down to the wire. Or do not ventilate even, I really hope all the doom mongers are wrong and people who need assistance with their breathing get help.
In my personal situation I would say no . Keep the machine for someone who really needs it. I have no gf, no ex wife, no dependants, non essential job, over 50. Better to keep a. Mum or dad alive than me.
Looking at shutdown at work next month, no point in paying wages to people with nothing to do

Government should defer vat, paye, rates and duty payments for small business with, say less than 100 staff or a turnover of less than say £500k


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 12:04 pm
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Result was, nigh on two thirds of the entire country would go red within a few months, and we would see around 875,000 deaths. As far as I know, containment was not modelled. Another prediction, south east asia would be the source.

Looks about right, I'm afraid. From the various figures that have been circulating (ignoring the batshit mental ones) it is from 60% infection with a 1% mortality (c.350,000 deaths) to 80% and 3% (c.1,500,000 deaths). The mid point of those is not far off the mark of that link.

Presumably at some point 'we' will be forced to admit 'we' are nothing special as a nation.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 12:05 pm
 tomd
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thing Cummings is in charge, Bojo doesn’t care what happens; he achieved all his ambitions when he shagged his GF in No. 10, after achieving that he hasn’t got the faintest idea what to do.

Odd thing is, Cummings seems very keen on killing off all the Tory Voters asap; which does seem a bit short sighted. Maybe the Kremlin have given him a fixed time window to wreak havoc, so he doesn’t care what happens….

We have hit peak conspiracy. You know you've gone full tinfoil when you need another conspiracy theory to fill the gaps in your other conspiracy theory. This thread has gone off the deep end and sunk.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 12:08 pm
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Oh and I am not being trite. Obviously the gap between 1.5m and 350k is stupendously huge in all terms, it is just that the various things I have seen average at about 800k.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 12:08 pm
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Fewer than 10,000 patients in China currently
Since the outbreak began, the Chinese National Health Commission has confirmed 80,860 cases, including 3,213 deaths.

Some 67,749 patients have been cured and discharged from hospital, leaving 9,898 confirmed cases. The total includes 3,032 in a serious condition.

lifted straight from the beeb

No real point other than to show that its not a death sentence.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 12:08 pm
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I admit it does sound like classic hangover symptoms, but I don’t drink, and neither does my 8yr old son.

I was talking about me, not having a pop at you!


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 12:12 pm
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Member
It’s not about stopping the spread, it’s about freeing up emergency services, and creating the capacity there to deal with the coming issues.

mrmonkfinger
and slowing the spread by limiting size & rate of social interaction for non-essential stuff, like football.

No, you are just adding that bit yourself, she never gave those extra reasons, at all.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 12:17 pm
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No real point other than to show that its not a death sentence.

Apart from the 4% of confirmed cases it actually killed?

I think most people grasp that, for the 96% majority, it's a relatively mild illness which might cause them a bit of inconvenience if they get it. The problem is that the same majority also have someone close who would fall into that 4%.

"It won't kill you" sounds great but when you're the prime minister and you then tag on "but it'll probably kill yer granny" people get frightened.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 12:19 pm
 Drac
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First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced the action last week to protect the resilience of public services - especially emergency services and the NHS.
She said that gatherings of 500 people or more should not take place in Scotland until the impact of Covid-19 had lessened substantially.
The Scottish government cannot directly shut events down, but is encouraging and advising organisers to support the efforts of emergency services and the wider public sector to prepare for increased numbers of cases.

Seems she did.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 12:19 pm
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I was talking about me, not having a pop at you!

I know. but this is part of the issue.

for a lot of people, this could be no worse than a heavy hangover. advice is to self isolate with a fever/cough but I had neither of those things so haven't.

So have I been merrily walking around like typhoid mary?


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 12:20 pm
 poly
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This is the problem with abandoning testing. We’re going to have an entire country of people not knowing whether they should go out or not and panicking over when they’re going to get it and whether they’re infecting others

But its probably better for the whole of society if most people believe they are still at risk, keep washing their filthy hands, avoid close contact etc - rather than some people feeling "i'm all right jack, I've had it" and then transferring it between others.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 12:21 pm
 Yak
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So have I been merrily walking around like typhoid mary?

Quite possibly. But so would have everyone else who had a winter bug that fell below the minimum standards for self-isolation for the time as it has been a moving goalpost.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 12:26 pm
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No, you are just adding that bit yourself

I did indeed. Feel free to remove it.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 12:36 pm
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Oh and I am not being trite. Obviously the gap between 1.5m and 350k is stupendously huge in all terms, it is just that the various things I have seen average at about 800k

No need to explain, the numbers are just limits and the sensible bet is the average, right?

“It won’t kill you” sounds great but when you’re the prime minister and you then tag on “but it’ll probably kill yer granny” people get frightened

I await his next speech, design to confuse and panic the public, with, er, more than slight unease.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 12:38 pm
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No need to explain, the numbers are just limits and the sensible bet is the average, right?

Yes, but (without getting all 'Dorothy' about it) every point under the mortality line on a graph means something to somebody...


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 12:45 pm
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No need to explain, the numbers are just limits and the sensible bet is the average, right?

And we have to get away from this notion that it cannot possibly be as bad here because we are British.

If the government insists on being an outlier in response to this and get it wrong they should be being chased up Whitehall in their socks.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 12:48 pm
 dazh
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If the government insists on being an outlier in response to this and get it wrong they should be being chased up Whitehall in their socks.

Not that I'm interested in the politics right now as I'm struggling trying to cope with the fact that my parents are potentially living with a death sentence hanging over them, but if they don't get a handle on it very quickly and start leading, rather than following, then Boris is finished. In fact I have no doubt that he's completely out of his depth and doesn't want to be in the job. He's simply not equipped with the skills to deal with something of this seriousness and magnitude. They should bring back Gordon Brown as emergency PM of a unity govt.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 12:56 pm
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I'm not sure we are that much of an "outlier" yet. The gov are holding off several of the measures enacted elsewhere - for now. Bear in mind we are a bit behind the curve of some other countries, the bet the gov are making is that some measures won't help for a few weeks, the timing has to be right. We've got selective lockdown on the vulnerable elderly coming imminently. Schools, maybe won't help so much yet. Clearly right now its a bet on keeping the (relatively) unaffected age groups moving. Sports seems to be self limiting. Travel is already stopped due to other countries. Other social stuff, maybe that will be limited in a week or two or four.

The outliers, going by the numbers, China (now), South Korea, Hong Kong, Japan; got to question why, what is it they are doing is making the difference, or are they misreporting for some reason? China nailed down the Wuhan region, so clearly "it's over" but what about rest of country, there is a whole big old load of folks just waiting to have another outbreak, I can't believe it won't spread, after all it spread to other countries. As for Europe, despite a differing range of measures across Europe all the Euro countries have similar growth rates for the thing.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 12:57 pm
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I await his next speech, design to confuse and panic the public, with, er, more than slight unease.

Luckily he has conducted himself with the utmost probity and dedication up to this point, so when he actually needs to say something true the people will believe in him.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 12:59 pm
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Boris is equipped perfectly to deal with a bag of toot and a roomfull of aristocrats needing a speech about the jolly poor people, but running a country during a crisis, laugh, don't make me, rabbit in headlights.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 1:00 pm
 Drac
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The outliers, going by the numbers, China (now), South Korea, Hong Kong, Japan; got to question why, what is it they are doing is making the difference, or are they misreporting for some reason?

South Korea are testing everyone not just highly suspected, seriously ill or deceased. So the mortality rate is based on as near as a full population as opposed the those testing positive.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 1:00 pm
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You can almost feel the fabric of society starting to unravel this morning. Wonder how long before the real panic starts.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 1:02 pm
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"If the government insists on being an outlier in response to this"

The thing is we're assuming the action taken in China etc has actually worked - it's too early to tell. We'll only really know in 12 months time - enough time to determine if the action resulted in a subsequent much larger infection a few months down the line or mutations into milder (or more aggressive) strains.

The problem with China is that we can't trust their data. They originally delayed telling the WHO of the problem and covered up Covid by introducing new filters on social media e.g. WeChat, back in December. This prevented people from telling each other they were sick - many Chinese are also reluctant to talk about it by phone because calls are routinely monitored. In this critical period, no travel restrictions were introduced with the result that travellers from Wuhan infected many others.

Given the scale of China's initial subterfuge it's quite plausible that today's "low" figures are actually the tip of an iceberg and that their containment approach has actually failed.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 1:03 pm
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You can almost feel the fabric of society starting to unravel this morning. Wonder how long before the real panic starts.

What did you see? and more importantly where are you?

My morning commute was as busy as ever, last night Tesco express seemed fully stocked though I didn't look for bog roll.

Only worry at work over projects drying up due to movement restrictions.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 1:26 pm
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Apart from the 4% of confirmed cases it actually killed?

That can't be quantified though.
Those people died with CV but that does not mean it actually killed them - some of them may have died from the underlying illness anyway.
Pedantic but true.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 1:29 pm
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The thing is we’re assuming the action taken in China etc has actually worked – it’s too early to tell. 

Ok. What about South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore, then?


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 1:29 pm
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I think most people grasp that, for the 96% majority, it’s a relatively mild illness which might cause them a bit of inconvenience if they get it. The problem is that the same majority also have someone close who would fall into that 4%.

Where did you get the 96% have it mild from?

WHO is saying 80% mild, 20% needing hospitalisation.

Leaked PHE document saying 15% need hospitalisation.

The problem is if it takes off in the numbers the government is expecting the vast majority won't get access to healthcare.

Look at all the resources China threw at this, building extra hospitals, drafting in thousands of extra doctors and nurses from other provinces and they only had 0.0056% of their population infected and they still became overwhelmed in Wuhan.

Bojo is planning 60-80% of the population getting this, 7.9M serious enough needing hospitalisation. Assuming people need a 1 week stay (some will need a month), we could maybe treat 500K in a year based on the circa 10K free beds we have.

That is 7.4M people in a very sticky situation.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 1:31 pm
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That can’t be quantified though.

Can't be dismissed entirely as coincidence either.

It's gonna kill some grannies. Boris said so on the telly.

I only wish he'd tell us how many.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 1:34 pm
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Where did you get the 96% have it mild from?

When I said "relatively mild", i meant "didn't die" based on the preceeding post.

Relatively speaking, "not dying" seems like a mild inconvenience compared to "dying"


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 1:37 pm
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I think most people grasp that, for the 96% majority, it’s a relatively mild illness which might cause them a bit of inconvenience if they get it.

I think you overestimate "most people." The state of my local supermarkets paints a very different picture of what "most people" are thinking right now. It's only a matter of time before someone gets punched out over the last packet of Lemsip.

Still, I wonder if this is a preferable situation to people under-reacting and not taking it seriously?


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 1:38 pm
 Drac
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When I said “mild”, i meant “didn’t die” based on the preceeding post

Not dying is good but being seriously ill isn’t good.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 1:41 pm
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Not dying is good but being seriously ill isn’t good.

Relatively.

Don't make me get all Einstein on yo ass.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 1:43 pm
 Drac
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Don’t make me get all Einstein on yo ass.

He chose to die as he was seriously unwell. 😀


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 1:45 pm
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Not dying is good but being seriously ill isn’t good.

And I read this morning somewhere that people recovering from the more serious infections might experience capacity loss in the lungs from 20 to 40 %. I'll try and find a link to that but, if true, it will make recovery a lot longer and leave you far more open to longer term health conditions.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 1:51 pm
 dazh
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Virgin Atlantic putting staff on 8 weeks unpaid leave. Very community spirited of Mr Branson the multibillionaire. What a ****!


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 1:56 pm
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Wife is on maternity leave and our office are all WFH until further notice so have kept the older 2 home from school for the week. Is that panicking and an over reaction - probably yes, but we are in a lucky position to be able to do it, and what are they really going to miss with one week off school. Have them doing maths and reading while they are here to keep them ticking over. Will wait a week and see how it looks then before making another decision when hopefully some more is known.

I just feel a bit hypocritical/contradicted staying home from work myself, not going to football at the weekends because that has been cancelled, then sending the kids into a London school where we see year after year as soon as one kid gets Noro / flu / chicken pox within days 50% of them have it.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 1:56 pm
 Drac
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And I read this morning somewhere that people recovering from the more serious infections might experience capacity loss in the lungs from 20 to 40 %. I’ll try and find a link to that but, if true, it will make recovery a lot longer and leave you far more open to longer term health conditions.

That’s possible for a few yes with conditions such as pneumonia.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 2:05 pm
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Virgin Atlantic putting staff on 8 weeks unpaid leave. Very community spirited of Mr Branson the multibillionaire. What a *!

It gets better. Billionaire Richard, who lives on his own island so pays no UK tax, has requested a multi-billion pound government (so taxpayer funded) bailout for Virgin Airlines which is presently under investigation by HMRC for tax avoidance

What a * indeed


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 2:08 pm
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...& he didn't bother to rescue that old codger on the cruise ship even though he was a Tory


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 2:11 pm
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Just been informed this morning any locckdown longer than 2to 3weeks and our company is bust turnsover 2m...30 staff

Also any supplier issues due to them closing or locking down will have simliar effect....hey ho...must be loads in this position


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 2:14 pm
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China nailed down the Wuhan region, so clearly “it’s over”

Not by a long shot:

The thing is we’re assuming the action taken in China etc has actually worked – it’s too early to tell. We’ll only really know in 12 months time – enough time to determine if the action resulted in a subsequent much larger infection a few months down the line


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 2:30 pm
 dazh
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Just been informed this morning any locckdown longer than 2to 3weeks and our company is bust turnsover 2m…30 staff

Germany have underwritten unlimited credit to businesses to prevent this. Denmark the same I think. The UK have cut business rates. It's not just the elderly they want to kill.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 2:30 pm
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The UK have cut business rates. It’s not just the elderly they want to kill.

If you believe they are trying to kill off the elderly and disabled, then at least that makes (horrific) sense.

Stopping profitable and taxable businesses (those that were, before Corona) goes right against their aims of people being in work (low paid, zero hours work in the customer facing roles) and other people spending their disposable income and leisure time on something that isn't free, or heroin.


 
Posted : 16/03/2020 2:37 pm
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