Its not quite a U turn, but we're still delivering freedom day
I know how impatient people are to get back to total normality, as indeed am I.
I will be setting in the course of the next few days what step four will look like exactly.
But I think I’ve said it before, we’ll be wanting to go back to a world that is as close to the status quo ante Covid as possible, try to get back to life as close to it was before Covid.
But there may be some things we have to do, extra precautions that we have to take, but I’ll be setting them out.
. Interpret that as you will.
People do not understand relative risk. Or risk for that matter. I liken us to riding down a steep hill trying to not run away. We’re about to let the brakes off, but we don’t really know how far down the hill we are. Probably quite a long way, but the spread by unprotected children has potential for some rapid accelerations.
BTW I was told off for stating that the cases-admissions-deaths link was “broken”. It’s not since there will still be failures, but it has certainly been weakened.
Have a cold this week, my lungs are reminding me that it’s not over yet. I wouldn’t recommend infection if you can avoid it, personally. Certainly not BEFORE vaccination. After, likely a lot better.
If it's no masks from the 19th it'll pretty much keep me out of any local businesses while the infection rate so high, I had hoped to get out and about a bit more this summer but it looks like we are going down the brakes off and let it run route. So I'll be hunkering down until it's burnt itself out, work might be a problem given they seem insistent on people back in the office even after a historically outstanding performance while people were WFH.
I was on the 2043 from Euston commuti g home on Tuesday trains been getting busier (nowhere near back to normal) 99% wear wear masks & distance very well
So all the England fans coming back from the game was real shock, a lot still drinking, chanting and falling over and obviously none wearing masks or able to distance whilst so busy
You can see easily how the Scotland game was a superspreader event
(my 25yr old cousin in Glenrothes has been bedbound with covid this week)
Please pass on my sympathies Kimbers, nobody deserves Glenrothes
status quo ante Covid
Good old Boris, speaking in terms those red wall Tory voters just love.....
The England fans incident would be a good preview of what would happen if Freedom Day goes ahead with a complete lifting, if not worse as cases will probably only increase between now and then.
Please pass on my sympathies Kimbers, nobody deserves Glenrothes
As someone who lives local to Glenrothes I’m genuinely surprised that covid is able to survive in the body of the average glenrothes resident…it must be one hardy virus!
Hospital admissions currently are about 1/1000 of cases. As there is a lag between cases and admissions, and cases are increasingly very fast, and we’re planning to remove much of the measures we have left to reduce transmission… I wouldn’t get too excited about that long delayed hospital appointment for a nonCovid problem happening this summer.
Hospital admissions currently are about 1/1000 of cases
Are you sure? I think that’s the death rate. Hospital admissions are far far higher, 3% last time I heard.
Hospital admissions currently are about 1/1000 of cases
Are you sure? I think that’s the death rate. Hospital admissions are far far higher, 3% last time I heard.
On the day* cases are reported, admissions are about 0.1%, I think.
If you take into account the lag, 3% seems reasonable I suppose, I don't know.
[ *take yesterday... cases reported ∼25,000 , admissions ∼250 ]
we are on about 20,000 cases a day (confirmed) and 200 hospitalisations a day
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=GBR
in 2nd wave in October 20,000 cases a day we were on 1100 hospitalisations a day
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-daily-covid-admissions?time=earliest..latest
so to say the link between cases/hospitalisation has been broken is wrong, but its certainly been reduced, greatly
I know from clinical colleagues that there huuge pressure to deal with NHS backlog, which has medics working flat out right now
even a small covid surge may cause problems
so to say the link between cases/hospitalisation has been broken is wrong, but its certainly been reduced, greatly
I don't understand the reluctance to say the link is broken.
We know it was never going to remove hospitalisations completely. Its no different to the flu jab, we expect individuals to get hospitalised despite having the jab.
It's perfectly fine to say compared to what we have been through that it is broken as the rate is at a much more manageable and acceptable rate. (No deaths is ideally acceptable but that's not the world we live in)
Because, if the link was "broken", we could allow cases to continue with exponential growth without expecting a resulting exponential growth in attributable deaths. As it is, we can expect a wave of infections the size of waves one or two to now result in far fewer deaths than they resulted in [ less than 10,000 this time, rather than 60,000 a piece ] ... but, importantly, we put social measures in place during both those waves to slow down, and eventually reverse, the rise in cases. We now have new tools in place (vaccines), and are, seemingly, betting on those working at least as well as the tools used in the first two waves as regards transmission.... if deaths in this wave stay under 10,000... then "we" were right. Personally, with such a highly transmittable variant now in circulation, I think that we should continue to use some (reduced and far less stringent) social measures for now 'till we know more.
No need to shout dear!
My local authority has close to the highest case rate per 100,00 in England and has done for some time now, yet daily deaths have stood at zero since mid-March. It's really hard to see why we're still doing any of this.
what's your local authority? Cases per 100K is a good way of comparing but if your local authority is very small then the absolutes are relevant.
Gateshead, population 205,000. We have been lucky in that since the pandemic began we have only has less than 500 deaths from it.
Doing any of what? Apart from overseas travel and gate licking what is it you are referring too?
Everyone locally is, pretty much back to normal apart from face masks and table service. The fun fair is even opening this weekend. Pubs have been doing a roaring trade too. Some seemingly large mass protests have taken place too.
It's the cases occurring now (and soon) that could lead to future hospitalisations... what happened in April and May has far less bearing on what hospitals should be preparing for as this wave continues to rise. Hospitals will cope (that's my prediction, glad I don't have to make any decisions though), but at the expense of patients waiting for treatment and care for non-Covid problems.
Hospitals were mostly pretty quiet here through the last few waves, not sure why maybe we're just a fairly healthy population compared to some areas that got swamped.
The link isn't broken between cases, hospitalisations and deaths, it's just modified. The graphs will follow each other but the hospitalisation and deaths waves will have samller amplitude.
Hospitals were mostly pretty quiet here through the last few waves
Some "wave two" hospital stats...
That's for the whole of the North East not Gateshead. It doesn't seem to suggest what percentage occupied they were out the total available unless I'm missing it.
It does read that over the North East there were about 100 patients in ITU at the peak?
My local authority has close to the highest case rate per 100,00 in England and has done for some time now, yet daily deaths have stood at zero since mid-March. It’s really hard to see why we’re still doing any of this.
I have to admit to being fascinated by the stats and numbers.
200K population and 500 deaths is 0.25%, compared to the UK wide (128K/66.7M = 0.2%) - so your death rate is 25% higher than the average, but no deaths in 3 months despite a higher than average rate. Of course cases is now and deaths is still possibly a week or two in the future...... but I agree that the case for reopening is still gathering momentum
Why's the rate higher? Could be several reasons, have they all been in the pub watching the football 😉 - I know what you Geordies are like (my mum's from Wallsend, I'm allowed to say that!)
so your death rate is 25% higher than the average, but no deaths in 3 months despite a higher than average rate
We had a very good initial vaccine rollout here with a high uptake at the start. That has slowed a bit since and is behind the national average but it mattered the most early on anyway when it was the elderly getting jabbed. That's my guess.
sounds reasonable.
I think that we should continue to use some (reduced and far less stringent) social measures for now ’till we know more.
Boris has hinted tonight that there will be “some measures remaining in place after the 19th” aka a modification rather than a U turn but assuming it’s current policy on masks and cleansing to remain I’d be in agreement.
Boris has hinted tonight that there will be “some measures remaining in place after the 19th” aka a modification rather than a U turn but assuming it’s current policy on masks and cleansing to remain I’d be in agreement.
I'll be ditching the masks and social distancing like.
Like what?
I’ll be ditching the masks and social distancing like.
As will most people the moment it's announced, along with people who are already non-compliant or incapable of wearing a mask properly along with old dears who think those magic faceshields are acceptable alternatives.
The way out of this now is vaccinating the over 12s.
Like what?
Pardon?
it's a Geordie affectation, like, y'naa.
Oh because I ended the sentence with like, sorry second nature I didn't even notice it marra.
Well maybe not. The next item in the news is Sage list of "interventions" for..... the next five winters. So I guess were to expect periods of reactionary social intervention for some time yet...
Wot with Boris in charge? The man can't even understand the concept of protection when it's in his interest yet alone everyone else.
It’s perfectly fine to say compared to what we have been through that it is broken as the rate is at a much more manageable and acceptable rate. (No deaths is ideally acceptable but that’s not the world we live in)
A 6fold decrease in hospitalisations compared to October isn't 'broken'
As I said before NHS is in a state at the moment, deaths are thankfully v low, but that doesn't mean NHS can't be overwhelmed by admissions alone
Summer helps and hopefully things can be relaxed, but winter flu surge is expected to be big this year
Enjoy relaxation now while you can!
airvent
I’ll be ditching the masks and social distancing like.
If restrictions allow, that is most certainly you're right of course.
My partner is likely to still have to wear them for her 10 hour shifts for the foreseeable so I'm comfortable and actually want to wear a mask in shops for the the odd 10 mins here and there. Ditto hand washing.
I didn’t even notice it marra
Thought you were from Gateshead, not west cumbria !
Things are looking pretty good in Queensland (no doubt you were hanging on this crucial news!).
We had some localised transmission but a 3-day lockdown and thousands of tests has shown it's not really spread anywhere (some were Delta variant). Apart from Brisbane and a local authority immediately north that will get 24 hours more, most of us are back to minor restrictions tonight.
Lockdown process (hopefully) working again.
Looks like New South Wales hasn't been going quite so well. Fingers crossed today's news is better...
Looks like New South Wales hasn’t been going quite so well. Fingers crossed today’s news is better…
31 cases yesterday here in NSW, one week into lockdown.
If you'd have told me that a week ago, I'd have been happy that it hadn't completely spiraled out of control, but I doubt another week is going to get it back down to zero. And if it ain't zero when we open back up, it's just going to flare back up within a day or two given how easily this seems to be transmitted.
Good news is that Batfink Jnr didn't have it (just a cold), so PRASE THE LORD he can go back to daycare and I can post on singletrack work unmolested by a 2.5 year old.
In the meantime, have bought him this to see him through lockdown
Nice bike Batfink, good to see things still ok in Australia
Cute bike. Looks like Lego.
We appreciate the Australia updates. Keep ‘em coming.
Another example of the Australian measures being more effective - yes I know geography and demographics are a factor but it works.
Great looking bike for batfinkjnr 👍 What did dad get?
In the meantime, have bought him this to see him through lockdown
Nice. Hey! Ho! Let's Go!
I'll be impressed if Australia has managed to squash this delta outbreak. Thought genie was well and truly out of the bottle this time. Shows what you can do with proper swift lockdown and decent test & trace.
