Is the gap now only 8 weeks for groups 1-9? It’ll be 7 weeks on Tuesday since my first and haven’t heard a peep about my 2nd jab yet
Should have been in group 6, got missed off, so will be one of the very last in that group to be fully vaccinated.
When is it worth chasing them up? I’m in Scotland if that makes a difference
Got my second yesterday @ 12.5 weeks (Scotland)
Will be 9 weeks after my first jab in mid June, could have been a week sooner if I'd replied to my invite text quicker. Generally seems I'm getting my jabs a bit earlier for someone just under 50.
Rumours abound in the news then that the “next step” will go back two weeks. I’m not sure what two weeks does other than give some people more time to play with data.
Read this too. But also they are saying they will allow a 50% capacity at the football. As long as he says unlimited number at weddings he can do what the hell he likes.
I think that's a little unfair.
It buys breathing space, rather than forcing a decision (which let's face it needs to be made end of next week/early w/c 14th if opening is to happen on 21st, you don't decide the day before)
Which means we have 1 more week of data to review before then. At this stage while cases are increasing alarmingly, but deaths are not we could interpret as a combination of vaccination, prior infection, and demographics (younger people getting it but less likely to be ill with it) meaning that the mortality is no longer a major issue, and 'let cases rise, it's become more like a cold'.
Or, we could say that we are still too soon to tell, particularly as the cases initially have been mainly in some specific areas with specific demographics, and we need to see what happens now it is out there more widely.
2 weeks more data doesn't sound a lot but based on the inflection point we may well be at, it could also be 3x as much data.
Got my 2nd yesterday. 11 weeks. Scotland. Group 7.
The cities are a little behind compared to the average vaccination rate across the country.
2 weeks more data doesn’t sound a lot but based on the inflection point we may well be at, it could also be 3x as much data.
Very much this. Sounds like the D(?) variant is out and about. After all the mixing and movement over half term, a 2 week delay should give us time to assess what it's doing to hospitalisation and deaths, although - and apologies to joepud and all the others who would be affected - 4 weeks may be wiser. If the impact on deaths/NHS is tolerable, we may still be able to open up, even partially, with more and more getting vaccinated.
To my uneducated eye, the data suggests we need to be cautious. This is a real test of the "decision by data not dates"
Is anyone taking up the Govt offer for twice a week lateral flow tests. It was announced a few weeks ago - then not pushed except in relation to schools - but is getting mentioned again in light of impact of Delta variant.
Is anyone taking up the Govt offer for twice a week lateral flow tests. It was announced a few weeks ago – then not pushed except in relation to schools – but is getting mentioned again in light of impact of Delta variant.
Yup. Order online and you get a box of 7 rapid antigen tests posted to you. I'm a carer for my wife, plus my parents have cancer/heart disease so I thought makes sense to test myself weekly as I'm the one out and about. I upload the results (neg so far!) using my NHS ID.
Is anyone taking up the Govt offer for twice a week lateral flow tests. It was announced a few weeks ago – then not pushed except in relation to schools – but is getting mentioned again in light of impact of Delta variant.
My wife and daughter both test twice weekly, have done for months now, so not sure I really need to?.
I was wondering that, what's the difference to just ordering a pack and using them as before. Was it just a scheme to encourage use?
So far the vaccine hasn’t stopped us catching Covid, maybe the symptoms are less than they otherwise would have been.
if it is the latter that’s still a good reason to be vaccinated (not saying that’s what your post is saying but there are some who would pick up on your post and possibly use it to say ‘got vaccinated, still got infected = what’s the point in being vaccinated then?’)
I’m very much NOT saying don’t get vaccinated. The more people that are vaccinated then the better chance we have of reducing the impact of Covid for everyone.
Which was the message about vaccines all along and should not surprise anyone.
But listening to Ministers / Johnson this isn’t the message they are selling. It’s been, and continues to be, the miracle cure. Get vaccinated and this will all blow over, you could even have a nice pint whilst waiting. We are only a short distance down this long road.
Order online and you get a box of 7 rapid antigen tests posted to you.
Or just wander into your local pharmacy and ask for a pack.
Is anyone taking up the Govt offer for twice a week lateral flow tests.
Yes - though I have to - and have no issue doing so. Surprisingly few people that I know are actually doing them voluntarily and seem to be trading on the "I'm vaccinated" line instead.
Once you've done a few the whole process is down to a minute or two and then you just upload the results after 30 minutes.
We’re doing them. Ordering for delivery is dead simple, and they fit through the letterbox. Two of us have to do them for school reasons, not sure we’d have been so on it otherwise. The system works well, but I’ve not seen any serious attempts to increase uptake so far.
But listening to Ministers / Johnson this isn’t the message they are selling. It’s been, and continues to be, the miracle cure.
I think the media have reported it as the miracle cure, ministers were certainly saying it reduced severity of infection and "may" reduce transmission, which it seems to do.
The kids do lateral flow tests twice a week, and MrsMC occasionally needs one for work, so as I have very little contact with anyone else I haven't tested yet and relied on the kids, which is possibly wrong.
So they are promoting the tests…
https://twitter.com/nhsuk/status/1397129107289280513?s=21
The idiotic and myopic replies to this Twitter advert actually make we sympathetic for the government for a change.
I visit my dad in a care home so have ordered a box of test kits. Very easy and we’re delivered in 2 days from ordering.
Coronavirus comparison of cases and deaths to rest of Europe. I thought I'd add Portugal to the list since this seems newsworthy
slight flattening of deaths with the eye of faith
and how is Portugal doing? Increases in cases have put it back up there with the European average from a lower level.
Looking at the first graph, I can see other countries being very worried about people travelling to/from the UK if our projection for cases carries on (or steepens) in coming weeks. The whole green/amber/red angst the press are currently obsessed with might end up being entirely irrelevant.
might end up being entirely irrelevant.
I think it already is. Travel decisions are based on cases not deaths or admissions. UK are increasing. For the geeky, it's a log-scale so the steepness is signalling growth rate. Note the steepness compared to the B.1.1.7 UK variant emergence from December. Let's hope that vaccination has the desired effect. Israel has no current resurgence of cases.
This graph is plotting cases per 100k in the North West until the end of June.
If cases keep increasing at the same rate as they have over the last week, then the North West will have a lot of cases by the end of June.
I have not forecast July as you get the idea...
We have to hope vaccination prevents this forecast becoming the reality.
Good news on hospital admissions in the North West though...
This will mean that the relationship between cases and deaths changes significantly.
September 2020 Wave - All age groups increased at similar times.
May 2021 Wave - Only the 18 to 65 age group increasing.
It's interesting though that case rates are leveling off or coming down in some areas of concern for example in Bolton or Kirklees.
Be interesting to know why and how.
A possible explaination is that the surge testing made them go very high early on and so the cases numbers now appear to be dropping or levelling off.
If you look at case numbers in Bolton by age group, on a moving seven day day average you get this slightly confusing picture.
My guess is a lot of children stopped going to school after they tested postive or their classmates tested positive, which subsequently reduced cases for those age groups and their parents.
If this is the explaination then the cases numbers might well increase again when children return to school .
P.S the above explaination is my best guess. Just trying to put an explaination to the data.
This article suggests it has occcured in two year groups at one school.
This school closed for a two week half term and is now due to reopen.
https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire-news/haslingden-high-school-reopening-date-20746834
May 2021 Wave – Only the 18 to 65 age group increasing.
Is that 'all' admissions, or confirmed COVID case admissions?
Is that ‘all’ admissions, or confirmed COVID case admissions?
confirmed COVID case admissions
I estimate that hospital admissions are about 2-4x lower than the rate predicted from past modelling of cases-admissions. That's an rough estimate of vaccine coverage x proportion vaccinated (with some adjustment for age of admissions). Since we have about 50% vaccinated and about 75% protection from admissions, this is not an unreasonable robust estimate that vaccines are protective against the delta variant.
Tired, I agree that the relationship between cases and admissions has definitely changed.
I think there are 2 factors driving this change.
1. Vaccination.
2. An increase in the proportion of cases in those under the age of 20. This may be due to the variant or due to increased testing of that age group or both.
The table below is for England. It shows that a higher proportion of positive cases are now coming from those under the age of 20.
I agree that vaccination protects against the delta variant. Not 100% protection, but good enough.
We need people to keep coming forward to get vaccinated to ensure we avoid another problematic wave amongst the unvaccinated.
If unvaccinated people were randomly distributed across the country it would not be an issue due to herd immunity. However in the real world there are areas of higher vaccination and areas of lower vaccination. It is areas with lower vaccine uptake that might create a problem for the NHS if we completely unlock on 21st June.
Is anyone taking up the Govt offer for twice a week lateral flow tests.
Once a week for me (before basketball) or if seeing people knowing we can't socially distance like visiting my partners parents this weekend.
and apologies to joepud and all the others who would be affected – 4 weeks may be wiser. If the impact on deaths/NHS is tolerable, we may still be able to open up, even partially, with more and more getting vaccinated.
Cheers dude, im getting hopeful I have a feeling we will have an opening lite, basically masks but gatherings allowed. Seems mental I can't have 70 people at a wedding but they are going to half fill football stadiums for the euros.
If unvaccinated people were randomly distributed across the country it would not be an issue due to herd immunity. However in the real world there are areas of higher vaccination and areas of lower vaccination
I guess by this you mean mainly the unvaccinated susceptible people, ie: older populations (long covid etc. aside) and yes i agree, if infection gets into these populations then it can run riot quickly.
But we also have a bit of an oddity, in that herd immunity is supposed to work because the infected person has fewer / no-one to pass it on to, and consequently the infection doesn't spread. Without kids vaccinated, there's a web of transmission pathways right across the country - passed on through schools, then mixing schools via kids sports clubs and scouts and birthday parties and whatever else, so I'm not sure how well herd immunity will work in that case.
I reckon universities managed herd immunity in their populations last year!!
Lord knows what a load of students shut in their accommodation for months on end have managed to achieve herd immunity against!
“ I reckon “ has lost us a lot of lives, time, money, businesses, jobs, relationships, health and energy since February 2020.
Interesting / informative thread as ever.
My daughter (just 20) has been vaccinated at Birmingham Uni. There was a 5 day stint by a van in the main library car park. No booking, just turn up with ID. The take up was huge. Big queues even early on (when students are generally in bed!). She waited 90 mins for her first jab.
Her second one is due in Aug, but the nurse said they are trying to get them a second one while she's still at Uni. So within 3 weeks. Pretty amazing stuff either way.
My lad (22) was a bit cheesed off by this as he's kind of front line (runs the baby room at the local nursery). So he rang 119 and they booked him a jab as well!
Getting my 'kids' vaccinated feels like a really good thing. I know it's a bit selfish but you can't stop being a parent even when they're this age.
That sounds properly organised!
It was. Adverts plastered all over social media. UoB Social Media was pretty much 100% on it. Signs up on campus. And - like most peoples experiences - in and out of the van in less than three minutes. Didn't ask they to sit down and wait (like for mine), just punted them back outside 😉
I was heartened to hear a) how all the students were dragging their hungover mates etc to get it done and b) how well the Uni/local NHS organised it. Seems to be going on on a lot of large city campus's. Has to be a good thing.
My lad turns 18 in July. Hoping he gets at least one jab in before he goes to uni.
My understanding (and it's no more than that, but my job involves working with uni's every day) is there is a real desire from both the institutions and the DfE is to get a high level of vaccination to ALL students attending/returning this Sept.
One of the issues is the number of (potentially non vaccinated) international students who will be on a twice testing week protocol, but that's going to be hard to enforce (esp self isolation). So the mitigation is to try and get the UK based students protected and hopefully lower the transmission rate as well.
There is definitely tension between the DfE and the Uni's about who is responsible / pays for this. A lot of Uni's are feeling pretty bruised after having to build their own testing sites/processes at short notice early this year.
Having said all that, there is a strong desire to return to a 'normal' experience. I don't expect that'll see full lecture theatres tho until at least next year.
There is definitely tension between the DfE and the Uni’s about who is responsible / pays for this. A lot of Uni’s are feeling pretty bruised after having to build their own testing sites/processes at short notice early this year.
My business has experienced really significant extra costs, restrictions on our work etc etc. Seeing how much money and reserves the Uni's are sat on, they need to just include cost of vaccination and testing to all students next year IMO.
I struggle to feel any sympathy for universities the way they handled the whole shit show last year.
Also interesting to see some emergence of cases in Highlands, Perth & Kinross, Angus & Fife. Related to more of us (myself included) travelling there more? Or just co-incidence...
Interesting to also note that we are seeing a good few schools scattered around the country closing for a week / relief of half term in England as there seems to be either more cases or testing at a younger age is finding more cases.
Seeing how much money and reserves the Uni’s are sat on
feel any sympathy for universities the way they handled the whole shit show last year
I don't want to derail the thread, but not all uni's are sat on big reserves, and while some well publicised examples have been extremely poor, there has also been some outstanding work behind the scenes. My own view is Uni's are really bad at change esp quick change and the Govt's lack of coherent policy has definitely put them on the back foot.
Anyway, I'll leave it there as not really appropriate for this thread.
