So are you suggesting we avoid the gym for the rest of our lives now?
I've avoided it so far, its not got any more appealing...
What they said.
Struggling to see the issue with continuing to avoid gyms
What they said.
Struggling to see the issue with continuing to avoid gyms
dont want to go to one myself.
<semi-sarcastic> would like all the former gym goers to return (safely) and leave the outdoors to those of us who like it by choice, rather than reluctantly when it was the only option.
I’d be avoiding spin classes come unlocking in Step 4. This is the population who are unvaccinated and may experience a surge in infections (but perhaps without the morbidity and mortality). The transmission in a spin class in Canada is off the scale high (R = 44!). Other indoor exercise will not produce anything like the transmission potential.
*stupid question*
In this case, why aren't spin classes excluded from re-opening?
In this case, why aren’t spin classes excluded from re-opening?
You're aware of who is nominally 'in charge' of the country? That's why, he doesn't do detail just the populist stuff.
.
Flaperon - There are no classes in gyms currently well in England at least, I would also be surprised if most regular gym users are not back.
i don't know what to think anymore...I need a media ban for my own mental health.
is this guy, what he said or some of what hes saying for real, nonsense, somewhere in the middle???
He's a pathologist, and I think he's become just a little too comfortable with death.
As a pathologist, I’ve spent more time staring death in the face than most. I have personally performed thousands of autopsies – and if they’ve taught me anything, it’s that while death is inevitable, it needn’t be terrifying.
He's definitely for real, and his argumentation needs to be taken at face value and debated, not ridiculed. I say that as (on balance) a lockdown supporter, but it is far more of a grey area than those that dismiss alternate views would have us believe.
We'll probably never know for sure how right or not he is. We can compare to other countries with different responses and extrapolate but that's all it is. This is happening right now, in the real world not in a lab, and there is no control experiment. Anyone that claims to <span style="text-decoration: underline;">absolutely</span> know our response is/was right is guessing.
The transmission in a spin class in Canada is off the scale high (R = 44!)
maybe cross over to Alaska or drop south of the border...
sorry TiRed, couldnt resist - quite aware this was for a specific spin class in a specific room at a specific time... 🙂
i don’t know what to think anymore…
Step 1 - stay the hell away from Ivor Cummins and any content he is sharing... he's a quack... a snake oil salesman... he is sharing attention grabbing content to help him sell his diet. Use more reputable sources of information.
Step 2 - anyone else who claimed, like Cummins, that the first wave ended last Spring due to "herd immunity" rather than because of reduced contact between people... don't listen to them or read/watch what they are sharing either.
We’ll probably never know for sure how right or not he is.
Isn't the core of his argument about quality of life vs. quantity of life? Which is a very subjective judgement even about the principle, let alone once you start trying to measure quality. So it's one for the philosophers to argue about. I happen to think that we focus excessively on delaying deaths without really considering whether we should or not, but as noted above it's a really tough call to make.
The swimming pool at Formby was shut this morning, due to several cases of C19.
I happen to think that we focus excessively on delaying deaths
During a pandemic like this, we focus on near term deaths as they are reasonably easily counted while the pandemic is ongoing, so are useful for gauging what the virus is doing and how we are dealing with it. If we had simply let everyone get the virus in a short time span, before vaccines were available, and not slowed its spread or sought to contain it, we'd not just be looking at hundreds of thousands of more deaths in that timespan, but longer term we'd being dealing with ill health (I'd say that was a key indicator of "quantity of life") on scale that could have been huge, but would have taken months/years to be fully quantified, if it was ever possible to do so.
I think Kelvin summed it up - quality v quantity of life is easy to choose at a short term individual level, but at a national, long-term level its an impossible choice. A year ago we didn't really know about long covid, its effects, duration or severity. We could have let 400,000 die and left another million or more with long-term health issues and reduced quality of life in the long term for the perceived short term benefits.
I happen to think that we focus excessively on delaying deaths without really considering whether we should or not, but as noted above it’s a really tough call to make.
Whilst this may have been the "headline-grabbing reason". It is not the principal reason for application of Non Pharmaceutic Interventions (NPIs). The fact is a failing healthcare service would have dramatic effects on overall morbidity and mortality, not just for the elderly. What will you do when there are no maternity beds available? Or A&E beds for accidents. The challenge is that ALL other healthcare scales linearly with population. Infectious diseases do not.
Do think we would really have had such drastic NPIs if we could have all taken a pill from the bathroom? That last happened in 2009. For the next one, we'll be MUCH better prepared.
Scientists have expressed concern that residual anxiety over coronavirus may have led some people to develop compulsive hygiene habits that could prevent them from reintegrating into the outside world, even though Covid hospitalisations and deaths in the UK are coming down.
The concept of “Covid anxiety syndrome” was first theorised by professors last year, when Ana Nikčević, of Kingston University, and Marcantonio Spada, at London South Bank University, noticed people were developing a particular set of traits in response to Covid.
I have a feeling that some people here may have developed this. Help and support should be available for these people to help them reintegrate into society.
I have a feeling that some people here may have developed this. Help and support should be available for these people to help them reintegrate into society.
Not sure if you mean it, are being patronising or just taking the piss.... 🤔
Not sure if you mean it, are being patronising or just taking the piss…. 🤔
I mean it, it's not good that some people don't feel able to get back to normal life. It's almost this mass PTSD and if healthcare doesn't get on top of it we will have bigger problems in the years to come. We're rubbish at mental health as it is though so not sure how it'll pan out.
(I’d say that was a key indicator of “quantity of life”)
I meant to copy and past "quality of life".... but grabbed the wrong bit of text... but it probably makes sense either way, because "how much" life someone gets isn't just about how many days they get to live for, but how many of those are healthy and can be lived well. Slowing the spread didn't just stop deaths, it kept people healthier... and now we're rolling out the vaccine, more of us will avoid ill health due to covid.
In addition, TiRed makes the point about impacts on all healthcare, if we'd just let the virus run through the population without intervention, and before we had vaccines. He's probably made the same point many, many times before. Such patience, and always stays calm and clear. How does he do it?!?
We’re rubbish at mental health as it is though so not sure how it’ll pan out.
Mental health is still the poorman of healthcare in the UK, and this has only got worse in recent years, especially for the young, as cuts have fallen hard on local authority support for schools and other institutions. We absolutely need to do more, spend more, prioritise more. And there will be many increased demands on services due to this pandemic... not just because of the restrictions we have had to use to control the spread of the virus... but also because of relatives and friends lost in awful circumstances, isolated in wards and homes, with tiny or no funerals... the depression brought on by long term illness and fatigue for many who "beat" the virus... if people genuinely appreciate the need for us all to look out for each other as regards mental illness, and for the government to put in the money desperately needed to increase the professional support available, then that's to be welcomed.
As regards getting "back to normal"... well the reason why some will take the next year to slowly get back to that isn't just about "anxiety", although surely there must, understandably if you are following world events, be plenty of that... but because caution seems wise to many. Supporting a steady phased return isn't a sign of problems, just awareness of what we are dealing with. There will be loads of opportunities to meet up and catch up this summer, but it won't quite be "normal", because many will have one eye on having a more "normal" winter 2021/22.
I see Formby swimming pool is an indoor pool, Bunnyhop, and they don't say if the cases are related to the gym and other facilities on site or the pool.
Our local outdoor pool has been open except for our periods of strict confinement. One of five operating for the whole of France though more Summer season pools are opening now. The protocol has worked. There was a cluster among the staff but it didn't result in any contamination of swimmers. 90 people per session so 12 swimmers for each 50m lane max but in reality I've never seen that as some people arrive for the start of the session and leave as others arrive.
Re anxiety - a colleague and I have been told - without being asked - we are to go to a 300 person conference in November.
Despite the fact it may never happen, both of us are concerned we’ve not been approached in a duty of care over that by our employer and neither of us want to go.
It’s a long way off. Don’t worry about it now.
As regards getting “back to normal”… well the reason why some will take the next year to slowly get back to that isn’t just about “anxiety”, although surely there must, understandably if you are following world events, be plenty of that… but because caution seems wise to many.
Nicely put. Yes, I have long standing pre Covid anxiety issues which I'm sure is a factor, but I don't actually feel the need to get back to "normal" in a hurry, I'm happy to wait a few months more for more of the population to be properly vaccinated before I go back to the office, pubs, restaurants, club rides etc
Fair play to anyone who wants to enjoy each new freedom as they are released. But the government has caused enough damage over the last year by relaxing things too soon. I think/hope they may be getting it right this time, but I'll wait it out a bit longer just to be sure that I'm not contributing to the problem* if it starts to go wrong.
*My kids attend schools which are having small outbreaks
^^ Sums up my thoughts perfectly.
https://twitter.com/DrTedros/status/1390037666213900290
Id really like to see more pressure applied to produce at cost and hopefully the above shifts the U.K. position as well.
There is the question of availability of ingredients/materials as well.
I’m happy to wait a few months more for more of the population to be properly vaccinated before I go back to the office, pubs, restaurants, club rides etc
Fair play to anyone who wants to enjoy each new freedom as they are released
You are very lucky to have a choice of not going back to office. Now I know this isn't you so don't take it as such but many seem to look down their noses at those who want to go to a pub or whatever but those people may well have been back at work for months or never even stopped working and so the additional risk for them is minimal. I have been surprised to see the local group road rides quiet with many wanting to wait until fully vaccinated, which is fair enough but it really brings it home how different many people's experiences of this pandemic has been. Riding my bike with six others doesn't even register as a risk for me, rightly or wrongly.
When all this is done I hope people look at the socio economic impacts of this and realise who the real key workers are in this country and show them a bit more respect and maybe pay them a bit more (and I don't mean teachers I mean the lady down the road who works in Tesco or the bus driver or postman or delivery driver)
In interesting news - Mrs K whose been redundant since last July - had applied for a part time vaccine coordinator role some months ago. Not hearing anything she set herself up as sole trader in the interim and has secured some contract work in software.
But last week she got contacted and was asked if she’d consider expanding the role to Vaccinator, getting the training paid for and basically the part time role becomes as “pick and choose” position, so she can agree periods of working for the NHS around any contract work she secured and vice versa. Things have moved fast, she starts training next week subject to a blood screening from a test she had yesterday.
I find it pleasantly unbelievable how flexible this is although in no doubt she be called upon during high demand, and how after the doom of redundancy last year she gets to earn some wages by helping out with the pandemic/endemic. All very fortunate and in a good cause!
Looks like very good news to me piemonster.
When all this is done I hope people look at the socio economic impacts of this and realise who the real key workers are in this country and show them a bit more respect and maybe pay them a bit more
I absolutely agree with this, but I fear the short term memory issue we have in this country has already kicked in.
Its blue envelope day.
And I'm not sure if it's a good or bad thing the appointment is 2 days before I need to give a presentation to the Directors group.
But last week she got contacted and was asked if she’d consider expanding the role to Vaccinator, getting the training paid for and basically the part time role becomes as “pick and choose” position, so she can agree periods of working for the NHS around any contract work she secured and vice versa. Things have moved fast, she starts training next week subject to a blood screening from a test she had yesterday.
I find it pleasantly unbelievable how flexible this is although in no doubt she be called upon during high demand, and how after the doom of redundancy last year she gets to earn some wages by helping out with the pandemic/endemic. All very fortunate and in a good cause!
I'd imagine that the long term the onus of vaccinations will eventually be taken away from NHS staff, as they will be required to get back to their own work. My mrs did loads of testing shifts, then did her vaccinations courses, but never got a shift as there is massive over availability in vaccinators here now, loads of stories from her colleagues about having 17 vaccinators when they can only utilise 7. It's better that way than not enough folks though!.
Hopefully long term it'll be a covid/flu vaccine in on shot too.
Thats good for her Kryton - she'll enjoy it. Ive been working as a volunteer vaccinator with SJA and its great fun.
Today Ive also received a call up from the NHS for a final training session and paid work.
Id really like to see more pressure applied to produce at cost
love to see your cost model calcs for that.... but a nice theory.
...but many seem to look down their noses at those who want to go to a pub or whatever but those people may well have been back at work for months or never even stopped working and so the additional risk for them is minimal.
that. Im actually more keen that the hospitality industry survives and if that means being one of the first through the door as it reopens, im ok with that, someone else can support the fashion shops and hairdressers (ive got limits) sign me up for a flight soon as you like.
Got no problem with people going to pubs and staying within the rules while doing so, pubs need the business.
Disappointed that our two village pubs both now require pre-booking and door security, due to abuse and violence from people refusing to follow guidance on masks, distancing, exceeding the pubs safe capacity etc. I can look down on those type of pub goers? Cos I did pre Covid as well.
(Plus additional Police patrols requested after criminal damage to property and vehicles as those people wobbled there way back home afterwards, all beautifully caught on a variety of CCTV and shared on the village FB page)
Im actually more keen that the hospitality industry survives
Me to. We've lost most of our locals over the pandemic. Of course, the remaining ones probably won't make it through next winter, if we get this summer wrong and have to close them again because of another wave. Wrapping up warm and drinking outside will stay normal for me for a good few months yet I suspect. So good to have fresh beer on tap again, and sit around a table for pointless face to face chats.
love to see your cost model calcs for that…. but a nice theory.
No need to ask me, ask AstraZeneca
Im actually more keen that the hospitality industry survives
Me too. Been actively supporting takeaways from our favorite eat-in establishments all epidemic. I'm not a pub visitor as a rule, but one Gastro-pub near us has been frequented when they've opened their outdoor BBQ for the same reasons.
I’d imagine that the long term the onus of vaccinations will eventually be taken away from NHS staff, as they will be required to get back to their own work.
haha, like the thought of "getting back" to our own work. We're running vaccination sites "as well as" doing our own work. I'm a nurse and a HCA down today as they're out vaccinating. Tomorrow I loose a couple of admin staff and a doctor.
I think a lot of vaccination sites are slowly bringing onboard Non-HCP vaccinators, using a lower number of HCP's for supervision and consent. The real NHS work load is only growing.
haha, like the thought of “getting back” to our own work. We’re running vaccination sites “as well as” doing our own work. I’m a nurse and a HCA down today as they’re out vaccinating. Tomorrow I loose a couple of admin staff and a doctor.
I was referring to my own health board, as I have no idea what's going on in yours, that'd be a silly assumption to make.
haha, like the thought of “getting back” to our own work. We’re running vaccination sites “as well as” doing our own work. I’m a nurse and a HCA down today as they’re out vaccinating. Tomorrow I loose a couple of admin staff and a doctor.
Shouldn't you all have time on your hands now there are so many fewer frail and elderly left?
Anecdotal, I know, but I've not bothered the NHS with three things I normally would have over the past year, and my vaccination took all of 30 seconds. Extrapolate that and...
my vaccination took all of 30 seconds. Extrapolate that and…
across 51.2M doses that's 25.6M minutes or about 240 years of FTE . In >6 months, so an actual rate of more like 500 years of effort, just in the needle sticking. Add in the admin and trained support, the pre- and post- work (and yes, a lot has been done by volunteers too) but I reckon there's thousands of years worth of effort been delivered. Probably 10's of thousands.
I think your 30s is way underestimated too, but then I don't really understand your point. Are you suggesting this hasn't been a massive effort and that the NHS aren't really that busy?
