The same Chinese government that just blocked out the Oscar winning Director becuase a) she’s a woman and b) won it in the western world?
As above, likely much worse that our own incapable and corrupt shower of shit.
They're all very naughty and should be sent to bed without dessert
As above, likely much worse that our own incapable and corrupt shower of shit.
In many ways I agree, but in terms of Covid management, despite China being the first place hit they did a whole lot better than Britain or France in terms of managing the crisis, limiting transmission of the virus and getting people back to work and play.
Credit wher credit is due.
I agree they were very effective in closing the gate after the horse had bolted.
they did a whole lot better than Britain or France in terms of managing the crisis, limiting transmission of the virus and getting people back to work and play.
I don't think anyone is doubting that, its the number of reported deaths which is in question.
I don’t think anyone is doubting that, its the number of reported deaths which is in question.
And as Ed explained above, their reports are in line with the excess deaths. I know people who live in China, and I know that they had proper lockdowns, not the half hearted 'stay at home unless you don't want to' idiocy that we had here. They wore masks from the start. They were serious about quarantine for new arrivals. So I find their numbers credible, certainly at least as credible as ours, because they actually did follow the science.
From the point they made that discovery to the point it was revealed to the world you can talk about a “cover up”. We don’t know how long that was
We know through CNN that local Wuhan officials knew by December that there was an increase in deaths and they were covering that up. When doctors also spoke up about a new disease in December they were accused of spreading rumours, and we know that China's leadership knew that there was new human transmissible disease in early Jan that they didn't say anything publicly until the end of Jan. Without doubt China's ability to lockdown draconianly helped save perhaps millions, but their 'official' death toll from the pandemic in under 5000 which is clearly an underestimate, given that Wuhan is a major internal air hub, and the death toll in Hubei alone in Feb '20 was 3.5K
Whether they fiddled the figures or not, a Chinese lockdown is a lot more effective and draconian than anything the West could implement - remember the pics of people being forcibly taken to hospital? Emergency hospitals springing up in a couple of weeks, in a country with previous experience of these kind of viruses.
in the UK you have to die within less that 28 days of a positive test to be recorded as a Covid death which is rather short.
Based on what TiRed and others were modelling, there's a very sad reason they don't have to worry about recording deaths 29+ days after a positive test. Presumably the massive increase in new recorded cases in India will feed into a similar cycle over there in the next couple of weeks? Utterly horrendous for them.
I see the Uk vaccinations are now open to 42+. Previously we opened up in 5 year blocks. I imagine we don't want to overwhelm the booking system and also a shortage of 1st dose availability due to catching up on the second doses.
Are we expecting Novovax to come on-stream soon? The MHRA seem to have been looking at their data for ages?
The whole EU/AZ thing is an ugly mess. "We don't want your vaccine but we will sue you for not giving us enough of it" ???
From the other side of the Channel the "ugly mess" is just wanting to know why a company sent all the production from its British and European sites to just one country for a while and then drip fed Continental Europe whilst fully supplying the UK. Europe got only 30 of 120 million doses contracted while the Uk has not been complaining of delivery shortfalls - I'm happy to be corrected on whether Britian has complained of delivery shortfalls, I haven't looked very hard. AZ has been less than transparent with inspectors finding millions of doses that would have otherwise been quietly exported. A court case will force transparency - hopefully.
As for whether a country uses the doses it had been provided with through the EU scheme that is up to the country and waste should not be blamed on the EU. Countries can and do fix their own criteria for use of the vaccine, in France it's for over 55s and in Germany over 60s, some countires have decided not to use it.
In France which is running around 30 000 new cases a day the risk reward balance is not the same as New Zealand. Nobody is dying of Covid in New Zealand but you know that vaccination the population would kill around 2 per million. In France 1/150 000 being very ill and 2/million deaths with AZ is accceptable because the risk of dying of Covid is so much higher. However in Denmark which is running at 2 Covid deaths a day it's a more difficult ethical choice when waiting a few weeks means a safer vaccine can be used.
AZ aimed to make 30 million vaccines available to the UK by September 2020, by the end of the year they had delivered about 500,000.
I’m happy to be corrected on whether Britian has complained of delivery shortfalls,
We've had to reduce numbers of new first doses over the last month due to supply squeeze while we do the second AZ doses. The way it was introduced made me assume, possibly wrongly, that the supply squeeze was not in the rollout plan
Let's not forget the drug was developed by the Oxford team funded by UK government. AZ was approached as a manufacturing partner, with the uk priority supply agreed as part of that deal. This EU legal action was agreed by all member states.
AZ only signed the contract on 28/8/2020, Mefty. The same day as it started its phase 3 clinical trials in the US. Phase three trials continued through Sept and Oct and finished on 4/11. The vaccine was first approved for use on 30/12/2020. Your statement seems bizarre in the light of the trials and production situation at the time.
AZ aimed to make 30 million vaccines available to the UK by September 2020, by the end of the year they had delivered about 500,000.
Well, that's interesting. Why did you post it?
I’m happy to be corrected on whether Britian has complained of delivery shortfalls,
There have been shortfalls.
Only since the EU blocked exports, Scotroutes I assume. It'll all come out in the wash/court.
I'm going to take issue with the comment about hiding vaccines for export.
Notice how following the police raids on the manufacturing facilities it has all gone quiet.
You really think that would have happened if there was something being hidden?
AstraZeneca are massively behind with their deliveries to both the UK and the EU. Only the EU have been making lots of noise about it though.
Agreement with the UK from May last year says they'll try to deliver 30 million doses by September and promised 100 million by the end of 2020 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-17/astrazeneca-aims-for-30-million-u-k-vaccine-doses-by-september (I believe this is the prior agreement referenced in the contract signed in August)
Production for some EU nations (before the EU decided to take over procurement itself) was due to start in December 2020 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-13/astrazeneca-reaches-vaccine-supply-deal-with-four-eu-nations .
Before production for the EU was even due to start, the UK should have received almost all those 100 million doses - and that's ignoring any lack of continuity as a result of the EU taking over from the individual nations.
So if everything had gone completely according to schedule the EU would start receiving vaccines about 3 months after the UK. Pretty much what has happened, but obviously everything is delayed and the numbers are much smaller than expected. You'd almost think the EU was making all that noise about shortfalls to cover up for the fact their agreement was always 3 months behind the UK's.
I’m going to take issue with the comment about hiding vaccines for export.
Notice how following the police raids on the manufacturing facilities it has all gone quiet.
You really think that would have happened if there was something being hidden?
It did come out, they were EU and Covax doses that got raided - https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/24/world/europe/vaccine-European-Union-export.html
Flatpack, apologies i should have put it there was anything underhand going on.
The truth rather gets in the way of their stupid soundbite
Text message today inviting me to book first and second jabs. I'm 41. None locally, all in different counties averaging 20 miles away, but booked first for tomorrow.
Oh I realised that, I just thought the link was useful to counter the misinformation that AstraZeneca were quietly sneaking millions of doses out of the EU in violation of their export controls 🙂
Received a text message at 9am this morning inviting me to book first and second dose vaccine appointments. I'm 41. None were nearby, all in other counties averaging ~20 miles away. Booked first dose for tomorrow.
The diagreement on these matters is why there's a court case.
AZ, Oxford University and the UK Government were parties to an agreement signed as of May 17, 2020 which established the licence arrangements for AZ to exploit the IP and the intent to supply the UK government. This has been widely reported, including mentioned on here, and is clearly evidenced. The agreement signed in August fleshes out the precise terms of that supply.
Here is an AZ press release from May last year
It was also widely reported that both Pfizer and AZ (noted in the PR) commenced production of their vaccines whilst trials were still in progress and before approval. Both experienced sub-optimal production so didn't meet their targets, which led to fewer supplies in the UK than anticipated, but that is something we had to live with.
But when you stand back, both companies at some risk to themselves have produced very effective vaccines in large numbers in a remarkable timescale.
Has anyone but the EU threatened legal action against a vaccine manufacturer? (I could add, for the purposes of domestic politics)
US to export their AZ vaccines. Note that AZ have not sought approval for the vaccine in the US. One wonders whether they will given the benefit risk profile and external need. Still 60m doses will be released. As mention this morning, India needs oxygen supplies first. The vaccines will help with future pressure not the immediate.
Analysis of the U.K. in the context of the rest of Europe shows us to be a huge outlier for all the right reasons. Notably, Sweden and even Denmark saw deaths per million rise to the expected levels for rest of Europe. Denmark knocked them down but Sweden have not. Norway has just been a consistent star with deaths per million 10x lower than the rest of Europe. Be. More. Norway.
UK deaths per million vs. all other European countries (mean and 95%CI, median and IQR). Note deaths track the European trend very closely, slight decline for lockdown2, Christmas peak and then a dramatic fall. Lockdowns and vaccinations work:
I agree that the companies have peformed very well at a scientific and industrial level, Mefty. The Astra Zeneca link you provide with Astra Zeneca's own words from last May is useful.
I'm pleased to have been given the AZ vaccine myself having weighed up the risks based on feedback from the scientific community.
Where it's all clear as mud with blanked out lines is the contractual situation. That an EU/UK company would favour one country with production from a UK government financed production site is one thing, that it would divert production from non national sites not financed by the UK government is another and asking for trouble in the form of a court case which they've got.
The AZ contract with the uk government and the separate contract with the Eu is an interesting one. Maybe it became apparent to az that they werent going to be able to satisfy both contracts, so they had to decide which party to fail to satisfy:-
1. fail to deliver the eu contract, but deliver the uk one - risk being sued by the eu
2. Fail to deliver the uk contract,but deliver the EU one - risk being sued by the uk
3 Partially fail to deliver both contracts. - risk being sued by both
Or maybe (more likely IMO) - the UK contract was more legally binding than the EU one, so the choice of who to let down became obvious. It seems naive on the part of the eu to assume that if the promised number of vaccines couldnt be delivered that vaccines due to other parties on other unconnected contracts would be shared amongst everyone equally.
The court case (if it gets that far) will reveal all - I expect AZ's lawyers are very good, and the az-eu contract is water tight in az's favour.
just like the Chinese. I don’t think we’d have done better.
I would argue that the increased mobility (in country and flights) in somewhere like France may actually have seen a much wider initial spread.
On a positive AZ note. Having had much worse "asthma" for a year following suspected Covid in March last year I have now been off my inhaler for two weeks. The first day I felt well enough to stop using the inhaler without feeling breathless was four days after being vaccinated with AZ. I've improved further and had my best run in 15 months today.
My seasonal hayfever with upper respiratory miseries is there but the lungs are working at very near normal capacity.
The improvement isn't psychological, it's real. For a year I've been waking up around 03:00 wheezing, and for two weeks haven't despite stopping all medication.
apologies if this has been discussed previously...
can someone point me in the way of any studies into the transmissibility of the virus once vaccinated?
I'm struggling to find anything apart from something about Scottish healthcare workers.
Infact I'm struggling to find anything apart from very weak / washy language. I did look some time ago on the GOV faq's - which had a short inconclusive answer to transmission, however I cannot see this question any more?
I ask because I read the below about the Astrazeneca vaccine...
:How should people under 30 weigh the benefits and drawbacks?
For healthy people under 30, the health risks from catching covid-19 are low, but there may be a slightly higher rate of the blood clot condition in younger people. So, the UK Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) has said the risk-benefit equation is “more finely balanced” for this group. That means that for people under 30, the chance of the vaccine causing the clotting reaction is a little greater than the risk of severe illness from covid-19.
from what I understand a serious risk to health is extremely low (as stated above) so is it all about transmission then?
just trying to understand
can someone point me in the way of any studies into the transmissibility of the virus once vaccinated?
Lockdowns and vaccinations work
And timing is everything. Everyone should welcome the early vaccination programme, yet also lament Johnson's decision making as regards pushing for a "normal Christmas", despite being told from all quarters that it would cost thousands of lives. Oh, and don't forget his political jocular point scoring against Starmer when he called for the measures that were needed... and not just needed in "hindsight", but called for clearly at the time by the government's own advisors.
Latest PHE vaccine efficacy analyses published here . They do not include effects on household transmission, but analysis are ongoing. When published, I'll add a link to the new information.
using the 1/2 base x height on that red triangle, it's 'only' about 3000 extra deaths that cost us (prob more if the decline due to vaccines came in sooner, but surprises me how 'little' it really cost us
and yes, every single one is/was a tragedy, but 3-6K out of 130K seems low for me
@theotherjonv - I don't understand your point above. Are you saying that the additional 3000 to 6000 deaths at Xmas is okay when compared to the total deaths?
@kelvin Thanks, I like that addition, and yes it's the consequence of failure to act early enough. I might add the code to do the fill. You can just see the impact of Lockdown2 - it's much more obvious on cases. It was before vaccine roll-out too. That's what Christmas gave us. BTW it's a log scale. So area is challenging. I can calculate the total above the mean too.
seems low for me
It is really. The area I coloured is the minimum extra, as an earlier lockdown should have led to an earlier decrease, rather than broadly staying flat. I thought about trying to draw the line showing that, but that would involve separating out the effects of lock down and vaccinations... which isn't really doable by any of us. A challenge for TiRed...? I think that would be unfair request to make, actually. I 'think' the decrease would have been much less steep than the one that eventually occurred later, as the vaccination programme was at a much earlier stage. So, closer to the mean line, but I suspect falling faster than it (not much of Europe was locking down for Christmas... or was it?)
The AZ contract with the uk government and the separate contract with the Eu is an interesting one.
It is actually a lot less interesting than many people in the media realise as they compare the merits of two contracts. The key difference is that they were entered into by two different legal entities, the UK one with a UK group company and the EU one with a Swedish group company, whilst this distinction may make little difference in the court of public opinion, it will in the Belgian Commercial Courts and I imagine it will present considerable difficulties for the EU's lawyers.
I thought about trying to draw the line showing that, but that would involve separating out the effects of lock down and vaccinations… which isn’t really doable by any of us. A challenge for TiRed…? I think that would be unfair request to make, actually. I ‘think’ the decrease would have been much less steep than the one that eventually occurred later, as the vaccination programme was at a much earlier stage. So, closer to the mean line, but I suspect falling faster than it (not much of Europe was locking down for Christmas… or was it?)
Could some information be gained from repeating the graph but separating out the home nations? Different lockdowns, especially Wales, and in the earlier stages, very similar vaccination rates/availability, at least compared to the rest of Europe.
Oh, and don’t forget his political jocular point scoring against Starmer when he called for the measures that were needed… and not just needed in “hindsight”, but called for clearly at the time by the government’s own advisors.
SAGE talking about a firebreak at the end of September, Starmer did a broadcast calling for one early-mid October, Boris dithered on lockdown 2 then ****ed about over Christmas. And the **** has the audacity to call Starmer "Captain Hindsight".
Deaths in the UK must have what, doubled, since that end of September report? TiReds graph, especially if its a log scale, clearly shows the deaths that are due to government dithering.
If you sum the deaths per million excess over European mean from 01NOV20 to 01MAR21, then multiply by the 66 million UK population, the bump in the above plot amounts to 25k excess deaths over European mean. Note UK is not included in that control curve. I'll add the excess into the plot for all countries as an inset text.
the bump in the above plot amounts to 25k excess deaths
Smart maths. Well beyond me. Ta.
Note UK is not included in that control curve.
Good, because comparing the UK to the rest makes sense to us simple folk. Compare the UK with an average of everyone else, not an average that includes the UK figures.
