It's in that article...
The vaccines were more effective against symptomatic than asymptomatic infections, reducing rates by 72% and 57% respectively, compared with those seen in the unvaccinated population.
If you want to dig deeper...
I'd have to read the report to be sure but speculation based on what is in the article:
They tested 350,000 people (or collated test results from 350K)
Of those 350K, a certain number will have tested positive
Of those people, some will have had AZ, some Pfizer and some none
By segmenting the number infected into each of the three buckets you can see whether having the vaccine has reduced the likelihood of infection (and potentially if further data collected how serious that infection turns out)
Simple non-real example
100 people take a test. 50 had vaccine, 50 didn't.
10 of those tested are positive. If vaccine does nothing, you'd expect 5 from each half (in real world numbers +++ to effect a real distribution)
If vaccine 100.000% effective, all 10 would come from the unvaccinated half. Have to - vaccine works.
Probably - sth like 9 / 10 are the unvaccinated, 1/10 is from the vaccine cohort and then you say is 90% effective (or 88.8% if I understand how the maths works)
What's also interesting is whether behaviours change in a mass trial - eg vaccinated people are more risk-taking after the vaccine therefore their exposure is greater and so the actual result could be understated.
Woohoo, just been offered my second jab for next week. Can't wait to start licking door handles again.
I’m at 10 weeks also and was assumong I’d be contacted for my 2nd jab. After reading your post, I e-mailed the surgery and got an appointment next week. Don’t know if I’d fallen off the list but it was good to check, and I’m happy to have the appointment.
To update: Surgery called me back and said "I was in the next batch" but they didn't have a date for me yet. So I assume it's supply problems ^^ discussed above. They did assure me I'd get it in 12 weeks but it was likely to be quite short notice.
Most clinics are quite flexible with timings too. The 3 I work at don't care what time you turn up as long as its the right day. One is a lot more flexible than that!!!
Not 45 until June, but just managed to book on the website.
I just heard on the news that Tokyo has declared a state of emergency due to coronavirus - surely the olympic games must be in doubt now, unless the state of emergency is keep the spread in check in preparation for the games?
An Indian lady interview this morning, words to the effect of “I’m glad we managed to get a flight, we would have been locked down in Dehli but over here we are free to move around”
FFS
Tokyo news sounds bad.. they've done well so far. Any links?
EDIT: remembered google exists...
Japan has so far avoided an explosive spread of the pandemic that has crippled many countries. There have been a total of about 550,000 cases and 9,761 deaths, which is significantly lower than the numbers seen in other large economies.
"I hope the coronavirus situation improves with the countermeasures the government, Tokyo, and other regional governments have put into place," she told a news conference on Friday.
Tokyo reported 759 new infections on Friday, down from 861 a day earlier when the tally was the highest since Jan. 29, during the previous state of emergency.
Reading that just brings it home how lapse we have been in comparison.
Thanks Theotherjonv.
I think I was having an early morning senior moment. I read it as reducing transmission to other people. I don't get how you would work that out.
But reducing infections that much is great news, especially given that it's basically gone away here now anyway. With some sensible precautions, it shouldn't come back at all. Makes me wonder how this third wave is going to happen.
If you don't get infected, you can't pass it on. So that reduces transmission.
that it’s basically gone away here now anyway
If you call 2500 new tested cases and 25 dead a day "basically gone away".
With the variants the levels of vaccination needed to make it go away are higher than we are likely to achieve so it's going to simmer along rather than go away unless we do more than just vaccinate.
Around here we've got and have had rates as low as the UK for a while and people are going back to their old ways as soon as the law allows. That means that depsite an ever increasing proportion of vaccinated we're got stuck at about 90 people in hospital in departement 64 for months. It hasn't gone away, it's lingering around and risks coming back to bite us again.
especially given that it’s basically gone away here now anyway. With some sensible precautions, it shouldn’t come back at all.
OK then...
With some sensible precautions, it shouldn’t come back at all.
It is never going to go away. As the experts on here have been saying pretty much since page 1. All we've been doing is trying to stop it overwhelming the NHS (see the horrendous scenes from India to see what that would have looked like) while we get vaccines and treatments in place to help us deal with it as our 5th(?) endemic virus.
My area 'Cardiff and Vale' has been offering anyone 18-30 a vaccine on a 'reserve list' basis, just because they're have the pfizer and there's only so much scope for those. It's about a 2 week wait based on my sisters experience Anyone over 30 can have theirs straight away now.
My Wife's vaccine centre is doing 3000 jabs a day 5 days a week, it seems like someone said above, most people want to ride out any side effects during working hours, because they're only booking 60-800 at the weekends and last weekend they sent half the staff home early due to low bookings and high DNA numbers, people deciding it was too nice a day to waste it getting their jab which is shit really, but people are dicks.
Anyway, the effect (and of course the effect of the lockdown) is outstanding, like most of the UK we're one of the few places on Earth able to loosen restrictions AND still have falling figures. The infection rate per 100k in Cardiff is now 22, with around 2% of tests coming back positive, we're the most densely populated part of Wales (4 or 5 times as densely populated as the other cities in Wales and massively more than other areas). Hospital admissions are falling, numbers in hospital falling and most days there are no Covid deaths in Wales.
We're bringing forward the lifting of restrictions here (we've got an election in a few weeks) and, at the moment at least, it's being floated that we might just avoid another surge when restrictions are completely lifted in June / July.
The whole process will probably start again in Sept/Oct.
Exactly, PJay. In rural Wales nobody at all has it. With a fairly effective vaccine, and sensible precautions, it should be possible to keep on top of it.
If you don’t get infected, you can’t pass it on. So that reduces transmission.
Good point, duh!
Surely with an R persistently below 1 you just keep getting fewer and fewer cases until it’s gone?
Surely with an R persistently below 1 you just keep getting fewer and fewer cases until it’s gone?
Just like the flu every year, chrispo, and it comes back every year.
Herd immunity happens when enough of a population has protection against an infection, thus stopping it from spreading.
World Health Organization (WHO) experts have estimated that at least 65%-70% of a population need vaccination coverage before herd immunity is reached.
Mr Leshem said herd immunity was the "only explanation" for Israel's continued fall in cases as more restrictions were lifted.
"There is a continuous decline despite returning to near normalcy," he said.
"This tells us that even if a person is infected, most people they meet walking around won't be infected by them."
From BBC. So why is herd immunity rejected as a possibility on here?
Exactly, PJay. In rural Wales nobody at all has it. With a fairly effective vaccine, and sensible precautions, it should be possible to keep on top of it.
This isn’t what you said to be fair. Or at least it’s not how it reads.
it shouldn’t come back at all
One suggests present but managed and the other eradicated. Even with very low case numbers and prevention of serious illness it’ll still be around, imported, exported whatever.
Herd Immunity, “I think” is mostly only dismissed via infection only, and even with a vaccine it’s management not eradication. At least that’s how I’ve read the views on this thread. There’s a lot of chat here though tbf.
So why is herd immunity rejected as a possibility on here?
It is not rejected as a “possibility”, it is seen as unlikely, or at least not something we should rely on at this point. Past infection and/or vaccination of enough people will reduce future transmission and more importantly illness. It is unlikely to bring either to an end though, the virus is too easily transmitted for that. And then we don’t know how long the protection from either past infection or vaccination will last, or if changes to the virus will seriously reduce that protection and/or allow the virus to become even more transmissible or change who is at risk from serious illness from it. Barriers/distancing, and track/trace/isolate, and quarantine after travel are tools we will still need to use, at least for this year and this winter. Vaccines are not the only tool in town, although they are the most powerful, and welcomed with open arms by most of us.
From BBC. So why is herd immunity rejected as a possibility on here?
We arguably have herd immunity for flu from past infections and vaccination, but it comes back every year.
From BBC. So why is herd immunity rejected as a possibility on here?
One of the concerns is that there are defined pockets of low vaccine uptake often in deprived ares and those with substantial ethnic minority communities. So while in theory a small outbreak in an area with a high level of vaccination shouldn't spread widely, in an area with a much lower level of vaccination, you could still get rapid spread within that population and small pockets of high infection levels.
As far as 'rejected as a possibility on here' goes. I suspect there's an element of the term itself having been damaged by its association with a failed, disastrous government policy early in the pandemic, so it's become a sort of shorthand for that. There's also the proviso that the development of variants is a ticking time bomb and/or a race between further vaccine development and the spread of variants against which vaccines are less effective.
So why is herd immunity rejected as a possibility on here?
Just dipping in to this thread for the first time in ages, so apologies if I've got the wrong end of the stick. I don't think herd immunity as a way out of this is rejected per se, just how that herd immunity is reached. Herd immunuty achieved through a robust vaccination program and appropriate lockdowns is how it should work. The fact that here in Israel all the shops are open, I can mingle with the crowds whilst wearing no mask, go to a football match or sit in a restaurant supports this. Herd immunity through allowing everyone to get infected and recover (or otherwise) - something along the lines of the Great Barrington Declaration I guess - would technically still work eventually, but it would likely involve hundreds of thousands of deaths and a crippled health service. I'm guessing this is the method of reaching herd immunity that people reject.
I think masks should be voluntary by the start of summer.
On Europe 1 this morning the level of vaccination needed for herd immunity with the more infectious Kent, Brazilian and South African variants was stated as over 90% and a vaccine for children is needed to have any hope of attaining it. Even then 90% is unlikely given observed uptake.
Can I also slightly burst everyone's happy bubble, there are parts of the UK with high deprivation, people with chaotic lives large immigrant populations, where English isn't well understood, high density, multi generation homes where the infection rate is still fairly high, where vaccine take up is low, and because overall health outcomes are poor, folk are still hugely vulnerable to this disease. The GP practices in these areas,( like mine for instance) are still getting the same per dose funding as well off neighbourhoods, with motivated well educated mobile and more willing patients.
Like other diseases, this will remain a threat in low income and deprived areas for sometime yet, so when folk say things like
I think masks should be voluntary by the start of summer.
I kind of loose the will to go on, just a bit...
@airvent - reckon you will be lucky, with the push on "its not for you, its to protect people from you" its going to be difficult. the only way it would happen is either a "if you are concerned/vulnerable you can protect yourself" or a complete "all clear" signal.
I know a few normally rational people who would like to see mask wearing in public long term, I would be happy with a slight culture shift that symptomatic people take precautions, ideally stay at home.
(anyone about to start the but but but asymptomatic transmission piece - dont waste your breath on me)
Personally i would throw the masks in the bin right now as pretty ineffective visual placebo. But at the same time, if a shop, venue, aircraft 'wants' me to wear a mask, im not against it
Can I also slightly burst everyone’s happy bubble, there are parts of the UK with high deprivation, people with chaotic lives large immigrant populations, where English isn’t well understood, high density, multi generation homes where the infection rate is still fairly high, where vaccine take up is low, and because overall health outcomes are poor, folk are still hugely vulnerable to this disease. The GP practices in these areas,( like mine for instance) are still getting the same per dose funding as well off neighbourhoods, with motivated well educated mobile and more willing patients.
And how does me wearing a mask fix that?
I think masks should be voluntary by the start of summer.
Well, you’ll probably be in luck, because this government will be looking to offer something to the “freedom!” lobby and voters this summer, to try and make up for a winter of having to enforce stricter measures on everyone due to acting too late (ironically partly because they had one eye on those same people). Wearing masks in indoor public places is a tiny inconvenience to help avoid stricter measures again next winter. The trade off between the freedom to shop or gig mask free in 2021, and avoiding another wave winter 21/22 seems a no brainier to me… but there will be a noisy minority of people who think the opposite, and Johnson wants to be popular with those people. Voluntary mask wearing will come this summer, sadly, and the divisions and tensions that stirs up will be used politically.
To be clear, I was against the public being mandated to wear masks early in this pandemic, but we now know so much more about both this virus and how the UK public can wear masks during a pandemic that I have completely changed my mind.
So. Post AZ injection 8 days ago my wife has a persistent headache since yesterday morning. Woke up with it again today. Paracetamol & ibuprofen not touched it. No out of Hours GP round here.
Ive told her to go to A&E. Am I wrong?
She does suffer from headaches. Classes this one as Moderate.
Ive told her to go to A&E. Am I wrong?
I'm no expert but I'd do the same, so I'd say definitely not wrong. Bit of inconvenience, very small risk of catching something there, but I'd say this definitely falls under the category of 'better safe than sorry'. I wouldn't panic, because it's very much more likely to be nothing than something, but definitely worth getting checked considering the potential consequences if it is something bad.
@dantsw13 I had a moderate headache that wouldn't clear with paracetamol and ibuprofen doses from last Sat midday until late morning Weds, which started to subside while waiting for my GP practice to call me back having called 111 mid morning.
I was advised to go to A&E if it returned, thankfully it didn't.
And how does me wearing a mask fix that?
Edit. It's because there are still large population areas that haven't been vaccinated yet, and continue, for various reasons, not to be.
Ive told her to go to A&E. Am I wrong?
Nope.
I had a moderate headache that wouldn’t clear
I had the same.
Reassure her AND help her to get checked out.
Not panicking, just weighing up the risks/benefits.
Ive been giving out this advice in the Vaccination centre, but its so hard to measure actual headaches in people.
I guess the flooding of A&E with headaches was an inevitable side effect of continuing use of AZ.
Currently waiting for a nurse from 111 to call back. I can't see how they can say anything other than A&E.
I wonder if they've noted the change in MHRA guidance from 4 days duration of headache to any persistent headache starting 4 days after the jab.
Are we not at or near a stage where everyone in these deprived urban pockets has had exposure to the virus even if they haven’t been vaccinated?
And with most people elsewhere vaccinated, why should it ever take hold and become a third wave?
Barring some ninja mutant, I can’t get my head around why it won’t just gradually fizzle out now as the population becomes more immune.
And I know we don’t know how long immunity will last, but surely it doesn’t have to be that long the way cases are falling.
Well the common cold which is often caused by one of a number of corona viruses is still around after a few hundred years and has yet to fizzle out.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3416289/
SaRs CoV 1 did fizzle out but that wasn't as infectious.
I for one was against mask wearing at the beginning. However with the knowledge we now have regarding aerosols being breathed into the air I am now (as Kelvin says) all for them. So much so that I'll be wearing one for ages to come.
As mentioned it is a tiny inconvenience and may just stop one other person from catching C19.
A quick question: Why is the test different here to Switzerland? Here in the UK we have to swab the back of the throat down towards the tonsils, then a good poking around the nose cavity.
In Switzerland they just poke the test stick into the nostril. How can that kind of test give a proper result?
As mentioned it is a tiny inconvenience and may just stop one other person from catching C19.
In your opinion maybe. Not in mine though.
I see we have the scientists in the room t'day
Which bit? The inconvenience, or the potential for reducing or stopping transmission?
I see we have the scientists in the room t’day
I was referring to the tiny inconvenience part not the transmission part. No idea if they work or not.