In the end my wife overcame her fears and took her AZ jab today.
Cool. Hope (like me) she has no side effects.
but based upon the anecdotal reports of vaccine side/adverse effects it seems possible that the response generated in younger people is excessive
The relationship between titer produced and protection from infection is very weak. Some people may make a strong response with high titer, but others may not. That does not correlate well with protection from disease. There will be strain-dependent challenges here too. I agree with the sentiment, but this is not the same as drugs and pharmacology.
What's a titer?
It's something to do with Frankie Howerd i think...
effectively a test to measure the presence and also in some cases the number of whatevers being tested for - in this case antibodies
Basic form might just show presence or absence, but then by diluting down time and again and testing to see if you can still find them you get a measure of the concentration too.
Sounds like homeopathy
Nothing at all to do with homeopathy. Has nothing to do with the dose rates, it's an assay method
Example. Imagine you wanted to measure the intensity of blue paint, without using a spectrophotometer or similar.
Anyone can look at it and see it's blue paint.
Dilute it 50/50 with white. Is it still 'blue'?
Do it again, now it's 1/4 (or 4 in titer speak) - still blue?
Keep going - 8,16,32,64...... at what point is it no longer blue?
Now compare 2 blue paints, to see what their relative intensities are....and you have a means of comparing.
and before anyone complains - yes, I know - I also used blue paint in my bathroom in 2017 and despite cleaning the brush to within an inch of it's life time and again, every other paint I've used since is also slightly blue. It's an example, not a recommendation!!
Why isn't India on the red travel list? Huge new wave there and dangerous new dual variant strain which we've already got 77 cases of here. I've got no confidence in these absolute numpties in charge!
Why? Trade talks.
Why? Trade talks.
And/or lack of testicular fortitude.
Sounds like homeopathy
Can you explain your thought process here? As it didn't sound anything of the sort to me.
it's par for the course for that contributor
No, I'm sure it's just a complete lack of understanding.
It does make me wonder what other aspects of scientific understanding they miss though, to make such an obvious mis-statement. And also to not go and check it for themselves - if my thought was 'sounds like homeopathy' my next thought would be 'I don't think that's right, I'll go and check'
Too late. 77 cases of the India Double Mutant in the UK reported by Sky News.
Here we go again. Failure to redlist could cause another lockdown.
Can you explain your thought process here? As it didn’t sound anything of the sort to me.
I took it to be a joke about dilution, hadn't noticed the poster
I only watch the occaisonal Dr John Campbell vid regarding Covid these days, but I watched yesterday's one while winding down in bed. Very interesting (from my perspective) historical study regarding blood clot complications when adenovirus (which includes the OxAZ vaccine) was administered to mice intravenously.
Dr John suggesting vaccinators should include aspirating, pulling the vaccine syringe plunger head up to ensire they haven't put the needle in a blood vessel instead of the intended intramuscular injection into muscle. Apparently a very simple and standard practice with other drug administrations.
Too late. 77 cases of the India Double Mutant in the UK reported
I'll stay in my bunker then. ffs.
What makes it "double mutant" and how is that different to variants already present in the UK?
This is sobering, more than half of ICU patients in Brazil now under 40 and also significant infant mortality. I know it's a different country with different demographics and its own variant, but it's worth bearing in mind, particularly if your default assumption is that the vast majority of young people are covid proof.
The Brazilian variant is the reason I feel VERY uneasy when friends talk about possibly holidaying abroad this summer. Realistically, we're all staying put for this year, aren't we.
Realistically, we’re all staying put for this year, aren’t we.
You'd think it would be a no-brainer to give it a miss this year but there are at least two or three contributors to this thread with foreign holiday plans.
Reports from other places round the world at the moment "should" be very sobering in terms of international travel, the importance of suppressing transmission to reduce development of variants, and the importance of vaccination to reduce the severity of infection.
Still seems to be a lot of people with access to social media who disagree with my opinion.
“should” be very sobering
Unfortunately I don't think it is, I think they'll be a core of people who'll be up in arms over the next rise in cases demanding entry to costa brava. For them, Coronavirus is something that happens to other people.
Quite.
Anyway. AZ in my arm this afternoon. Promised second head has yet to materialize but I guess there's still time 😄
Coronavirus is something that happens to other people.
Part of the problem is it doesn't hit everyone the same. Getting hit by Covid and understanding the virus can be life changing as well as life threatening can give one perspective. People who have suffered badly from the isolation can go a bit de-mob happy they will have different perspective. Business owners, people who have lost their jobs another. If there was one threat with one set of consequences there might be a bit more consistency in response. What concerns me is if (when) we need to start upping the restrictions again. At some point there will be enough people who won't stomach it and we'll be a bit stuffed if a vaccine evading variant gets off and running.
The Indian Variant is being found in samples as far back as February
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/16/india-covid-variant-found-uk-specimens-taken-february
After much research Madame went along for her AZ jab this afternoon. She's back into the Covid soup at school in two weeks so the doctor's argument that AZ provides the quickest strongest response clinched it over waiting for Pfizer which would have been a few weeks later and slower to provide a high level of protection.
On the vaccine evading variant point. The variants might mutate enough to be contaigeous and transmitted by vaccinated people but the hope is that vaccinated people will still be protected from serious forms of illness. The idea that vaccines will have to be regularly modified to cover variants has been around from very early on in the Covid saga. Living with the vaccine and having annual flu type jabs has always been a possibility. Thankfully it's a disease that can be vaccinated against.
Hope all goes well Ed.
Thanks Kelvin, for you too, there are a lot of us in the AZ boat at present monitoring any symptoms and checking they aren't serious. I'd again like to thank Countzero for raising awareness on taking symptoms seriously and seeking treatment. We've been warned.
Sadly for this lot ^^^ IS the new normal. Until the press start to flag it up as not the right thing most people just won't care and it will continue.
The Brazilian variant is the reason I feel VERY uneasy when friends talk about possibly holidaying abroad this summer. Realistically, we’re all staying put for this year, aren’t we.
Judging by my Facebook feed pretty much all of my non-biking friends and their friends are planning to get away abroad this summer. They're mainly moaning about the cost of the flights - no cheap deals - and wanting to know about the Vaccine Passport situation. Some have even mentioned that a holiday only counts if you go on a plane...
I'm staying put here in the UK, I would feel terrible if I brought any new variant home with me.
Some have even mentioned that a holiday only counts if you go on a plane…
Yep, that does seem to be the case with some people. Is madness.
I’m staying put here in the UK, I would feel terrible if I brought any new variant home with me.
Likewise, and I'm sure our economy will benefit from this also.
Why would you expect anyone to follow sensible travel advice with Johnson delaying putting India on the red list, just so he can go for a photo op next week...
https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1382818751410749441?s=19
https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1382316137225027595?s=19
I can confirm that for me going for a 35km ride in the evening and getting cold on the way home was not a sensible thing to do after getting the first az jab in the afternoon. I ended up with uncontrollable shivering and no blood in hands or feet even after being back in the house for 30mins with a mountain spec down pullover on. Got halfway through a bowl of soup, started feeling a bit nauseous, and decided to hit the shower. That got me a little warmer and I retired to bed dressed in various merino layers. I woke up after about 30 mins feeling like I'd had a long sleep and started shedding layers about an hour after that. After getting home at about 9:15 I think I was back to normal operating temperature at about 1AM.
Not very pleasant. Steady away.
If anyone is interested then use Google translate for the French AZ blood clotting numbers up to 8/4 and some symptoms noted.
23 cases of which 8 deaths for 2.7 million doses. The recent cases concern over 55 year olds with an average age of 62.
Edit: Madame spent the afternoon in bed but is up again now after AZ yesterday.
Sounds like homeopathy
Actually not far off. As mentioned above, it's the number of dilutions of serum needed before loss of neutralising effect is achieved in growing virus in a dish. Since vaccines make all sorts of antibodies, there isn't really an assay for the number of milligrams present in your blood (there is for MONOclonal antibodies since they are all the same type - hence "clonal"). Instead there is one assay in "International Units" which is a bit of a benchmark of total amount of immunoglobulin, and then there is a "functional" assessment of how beefy those antibodies are at knocking down the target viral growth (in a dish) as one dilutes them.
As strains escape coverage, you lose neutralisation with fewer half dilutions. One could use much larger dilutions (homeopathy) but that would not have the sensitivity to see changes. But the principle is the same. Homeopathy, however, believes the antibodies would have MORE effect if you dilute them. That's not how pharmacology and the law of mass action works.
Apologies to @kimbers who does this stuff for real.
The most up to date variant data (as of today) is published by PHE here
It's worth a read. The most notable (Figure 8) is just how impressive S-gene target failures have replaced all others - essentially there is no difference other than a time lag from the SE to the rest of the country. One might hope that this B.1.1.7 strain is providing some "herd protection" from other invasive strains, despite the vaccination roll-out. All the other strains are really bumping along in the noise at the moment, although Figure 10 shows the SA variant had a modest peak in March. We shall see...
Apologies to kimbers who does this stuff for real.
Tbh, when im diluting a dna library down to picomolar concentration yet it still has millions of copies of a person/cancers genome, I'm still not sure I can get my head round it not being homeopathy
Avagadros number divided by a thousand million million is still a big number 😀
I was wondering how long it takes to get a reasonable level of protection after the first jab. I know 2 weeks is often quoted and a recent study in the US showed 80% protection after 2 weeks with Pfizer/Moderna
But.....given it takes around 5-7 days to develop symptoms and possibly a few days to get a test result does that mean if you work back you actually have 80% protection after a week or so?
No, don't confuse the how long it takes the immune system to produce antibodies, with how long it takes to show a positive test.
14-21 days to produce effective antibodies. Generally the longer timeframe is associated with the older population.
So if unlucky you could catch CV 20 days post vaccination, with symptoms/positive test not showing until 25 days.
I was wondering how long it takes to get a reasonable level of protection after the first jab.
14 days for protection. PHE analysis of population data is here:
Figure 1 shows your risk of COVID is increased for the first two weeks (>70yo) and Figure 2 is the SIREN study in Healthcare workers (so younger) and that shows protection at about 10 days. Risk compensation is a thing. Who knew? That or vaccination centres are cesspits of COVID transmission (not really).