In Germany the rate of growth of deaths is tracking cases (parallel on a semi-log plot). And in Spain, UK and Italy it does not.
Can I have that in pictures? Preferably simple ones.
If you look at cases 10 days ago for the UK (590) versus today's deaths (281) that gives a CFR of errrr... .
I think the Germans' own expalanations are more plausible, Mudmuncher. More people tested, younger population infected.
Just be patient, it'll all come out in the statistical wash. For now just keep 1.5m or preferably 2m away from people. That's what I've taken on board from Merkel's speech. A bit more distance makes a giant difference.
They're protecting the most vulnerable people, which means the people slowly spreading the virus should be the ones least affected by it - having a full lockdown could be bad for 2 reasons - 1. if you stop the spread completely what happens in 4/6/8/10 weeks when the lockdown is removed and everybody streams outside, to see friends and family, causing a massive spike in cases? 2. Shutting down the coutry fully for weeks would devastate the economy.
Keep the country on tickover whilst allowing a slow spread through the least affected population. Not shut up shop and cause a massive surge afterwards, and make the economy tank.
Why wait for there to be a problem? This weekend has proven people can’t be trusted.
because psychology. it's been fairly obvious for the past week or so that we were very likely heading for lockdown, if you've more than a few neurons doing the rounds, but you can't just drop it on the population. they've got to get used to the idea it's coming or there'll be mass hysteria.
Shutting down the coutry fully for weeks would devastate the economy.
Wuhan shut down everything and is coming back to life, that's the model to follow. Italy is the model to avoid - a slow progressive chaotic shutdown with no end in sight.
In a cruel twist of fate someone I know who wants to use the services of dignitas but obviously can't travel at present & might miss the window of opportunity before becoming too disabled, the worst possible outcome 😢
If you look at cases 10 days ago for the UK (590) versus today’s deaths (281) that gives a CFR of errrr… .
I think the Germans’ own expalanations are more plausible, Mudmuncher. More people tested, younger population infected.
Just be patient, it’ll all come out in the statistical wash. For now just keep 1.5m or preferably 2m away from people. That’s what I’ve taken on board from Merkel’s speech. A bit more distance makes a giant difference.
Yes, I think the discrepancy is down to the more extensive testing in Germany. We aren’t testing suspect cases unless they are serious enough to end up in hospital so it’s meaningless to compare the CFRs between countries also there is the lag in death from infection and missing infections.
causing a massive spike in cases?
Looking at one of the BBC graphics last week that seemed to be the intention they were suggesting. Shut down - let the cases fall and then open up again. Allow the cases to run to threshold and drop back. I'm not a modeller or stats person but it would seem a high risk approach. All they have to do is miss judge something as simple as people getting blasé about biosecurity because they've been at home for weeks or rushing around like lunatics because the pressures off and they need a release. Suddenly you've got higher infection rates and or more serious cases of injury. There again I suppose they will also be thinking about the number of medical emergencies created by keeping people in protracted quarantine.
I would be interested in knowing the relative number of infections caused by one big peak and multiple close to threshold runs over a longer period.
Looking at one of the BBC graphics last week that seemed to be the intention they were suggesting. Shut down – let the cases fall and then open up again. Allow the cases to run to threshold and drop back.
Yes, that was what the government were putting about last week… but it was dangerous nonsense based on OTHER viruses, not the science (known and still under investigation) from around the world about THIS virus. It’s since been officially dropped, but the smell of it is still hanging around and polluting the good efforts since by the government to do what really needs doing.
Keep the country on tickover whilst allowing a slow spread through the least affected population.
No, no, no. This was the nonsense from before government changed policy. “Allowing spread” is not what we should be doing, there is no good science behind it. People will die unnecessarily. Everything must be done to stop the spread, and buy time for the science and medical community to find a safe way out of this.
https://twitter.com/isabelhardman/status/1241783995777589248?s=21
https://twitter.com/isabelhardman/status/1241784831585013760?s=21
Seems like it's just another brexie conspiracy theory
https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/1241715885339021315?s=19
I went to empty the organic bin into the compost. In a town of 150 000 people it is absolutely silent, not a sound apart form one timid bird singing. Not a car to be heard, not a human voice, nothing, silence.
good efforts since by the government to do what really needs doing.
Just passing comment, the graphic was post revised approach. Boris, as ever, needs to put more thought into phrasing and less into word play.
What matters is not the case fatality rate (CFR), what matters is the relative rate of growth of deaths vs cases. We can’t know the CFR because the denominator is not measured. From global data, assuming about 10-15% of cases are reported, and a two-week period from infection to eventual death, the global CFR is <1%.
In Germany the rate of growth of deaths is tracking cases (parallel on a semi-log plot). And in Spain, UK and Italy it does not.
@Tired - genuinely interested what you think the true fatality rate is from this and the level of asymptomatic/mild infection that is missed.
From listening to the CMO/CSO I get the feeling they believe there is a very large number of undetected cases in the China data that I guess they made based their decisions on. This would imply the Infection fatality rate is way lower than the CFR and the infectiousness R0 is way higher. I guess that could have driven the herd immunity strategy as the death rate would be much lower than the data suggests and the infectiousness would be higher making containment more difficult.
My concern is the WHO said they didn’t find evidence of widespread asymptomatic transmission/ missed infections and surely if there was a lot of asymptomatic transmission their contract tracing would have found it, or they wouldn’t have been able to contain it.
If there isn’t a lot of missed infections then this virus may be more dangerous than they believe. If this is the case we might be in a situation in a few months when they are expecting say 40-50% of the population to be infected based on the deaths/hospital admissions and the R0 to drop and new cases reduce as immunity builds, however if they got it wrong and only 4-5% are infected at that point then there will still be a lot more people that need to die/get infected before we have immunity.
what matters is the relative rate of growth of deaths vs cases
You also have to bear in mind that UK testing capcity is increasing and supposedly is being used to capacity. If so, cases may go up simply due to more testing - for example if mildly symptomatic NHS staff are tested, which hasn't been happening reliably up to now
The Big Boris Weekend - will it produce a big rural spike or will the latest measures just mean it results in more countrywide mixing. One for a couple of weeks? Once the figures are in.
Didn't the Deputy Chief Medical Officer state that people shouldn't make comparisons with the likes of Italy? But was then rather reluctant to show any workings she may have to back that assertion up?
If you look at the +14 day comparison vs Italy then you would need a damned good reason and a lot of other objective stats to say why that is not a valid comparison.
I am not trying to be like a character from Dad's Army, but I am getting more and more concerned that we are being bullshitted here. It doesn't take 'R' to be out by much and the mortality to be out by much to end up a bloody long way out on any estimations.
Surely the best thing to do is be ahead of Italy and Spain on the preventative measures whilst we are still behind them on the infection curve(?)
First death reported today from my local hospital in Abergavenny. 5 more in Newport and 1 in Merthyr.
So cross now, arrgh bloody parents FFS
I’ll explain more tmrw when I’ve calmed down😡🤬😡🤬
BoardinBob
SubscriberIan Blackford
✔
@Ianblackford_MPI have been contacted by the Nevis Range Centre in Fort William who tell me that they have had to turn away around 30 camper vans, which had travelled from various parts of the UK, who were intending to use their car park as a refuge.
The comments. **** me, the comments.
The Boris Bounce is going to take on a very different meaning, isn't it?
As usual, Janey Godley nails it
edit 15 minutes too late!
kimbers
SubscriberI have seen this said a few times by some brexiter types on twitter, but not read it elsewhere, any source ?
As one of the Brexit Loony thread regulars it's only expected you would try to turn this into Brexit related thread to spew your nonsensical and bitter views/opinions.
It's clear you and the other Brexit thread loons have moved over to this thread, and as a result this thread too is getting too daft to read anymore .. so I'm out; you loonies can have another echo chamber to scare each other; enjoy🤪
Local pub landlady currently in hospital on a ventilator with confirmed Coronavirus.
Good friends of my in laws, a recently retired GP and his wife who’s a nurse are both self isolating with symptoms, they were in the pub for a ‘last’ meal last weekend...
As one of the Brexit Loony thread regulars
I don’t really recall tom posting that much in your favourite trolling thread. As usual, you’ve shot, and sent it straight into row z. You really must try harder, and while it undoubtedly wouldn’t help, it might make you feel better.
you loonies
No, come back Moo!
Spain is extending its lockdown by another 15 days . . . .
I asked you politely for a source on the previous page, Mooman, and gave you a polite reply based on watching Eins Extra.
In a population of 80 or so million Germans about 2800 die every day with generally more at this time of year. They aren't systematically testing every corpse when there's a blindily obvious reason other than CV19 that the person has died, but they are including all people who have tested positive for CV19 and could conceivably have died from the virus. And testing some corpses too according to that tweet up there. That is pragmatic and sensible.
As one of the Brexit Loony thread regulars it’s only expected you would try to turn this into Brexit related thread to spew your nonsensical and bitter views/opinions.
It’s clear you and the other Brexit thread loons have moved over to this thread, and as a result this thread too is getting too daft to read anymore .. so I’m out; you loonies can have another echo chamber to scare each other; enjoy🤪
So no actual source for your claim ???
Ironic that you flounce out on that note after spreading unsubstantiated conspiracy theories !
& tbf youd been quite sensible in this thread so far
In layman’s terms
Today you have 100 cases and 10 deaths. Next week you have 300 cases and 30 deaths. The week after you have 900 cases and 90 deaths. The ratio of deaths to cases is always 10%, and they both triple every week.
Suppose in the U.K. today you have 100 cases and 1 death. Next week you have 300 cases and 4 deaths. The week after you have 900 cases and 16 deaths. The ratio of deaths to cases is increasing week on week. Cases are tripling but deaths are quadrupling.
Now the absolute ratio is not known because we don’t know the total number of cases in U.K. or Germany. In the above case one is 10% and the other 1%. And deaths may be counted differently in each county. What matters is that deaths and cases are counted CONSISTENTLY in each country. Trends where deaths decouple from cases are concerning to me.
Note these numbers are illustrative only.
Edit and scaredypants: If we increase screening and find more cases, there will be a brief jump in cases (the ratio of deaths will fall) but then settle down to the same exponential growth rate as before but then instead of 10% each week it might be 5%.
UK are counting all deaths with cv19 in their system regardless of cause of death
Germany are only counting deaths where it's the cv19 that did the killing.
That will account for most of your variance I would expect.
Are Germany doing more testing that us as we appear to be just self diagnosing at the moment.
That will account for most of your variance I would expect.
It doesn’t. Variability in growth rate is 33%. Variability in death rate is 66%. That’s from 64 cases.
Do you have access to the corrected data sets ?
Germany are only counting deaths where it’s the cv19 that did the killing.
That is false according to the Germans, Trailrat. Could you provide a source please because what I've heard coincides perfectly with the tweet from the Koch institute which Kimbers has already linked halfway down this page edit: now the previous page.
UK are counting all deaths with cv19 in their system regardless of cause of death
Germany are only counting deaths where it’s the cv19 that did the killing
do you have a source for that? because thats not what the koch institute (German federal public health institute) say they do
I guess quite a few of us have gone down the rabbit hole of neighbourhood WhatsApp groups? No? You haven’t? Lucky you!
Just checked in the 127 notifications of people chatting shit and came across this gem...
“What a lovely thing to do. We are in Cornwall until Tuesday night.
Love Debbie and Brian x”
These two, while not in their seventies are certainly getting on and well into their sixties. Go Brits. Stick it to the virus!!
The more I think about the European numbers, the more I think the Chinese numbers don’t make any sense whatsoever.
What's your problem with the Chinese numbers, Baboonz?
I only have the ecdc data from the public domain and updates daily. But sadly in log space, assumptions become robust because proportions become additive. If you find 5% of true cases, that’s just a change in intercept. If you report only 20% of deaths due to virus as Covid deaths, same thing. It’s not the intercept that gives the information, because the denominators are currently unknown. It is the slopes and their relationship. Hence one has focussed on the slopes.
how are people like Brendan O'neail paid to spout this guff?
https://twitter.com/CharlesTannock/status/1241629153553760256
Hence one has focussed on the slopes.
Which are bad right?
Repost from a work colleague of my aunts makes for a tough read.
"I’m a consultant anaesthetist working in Frimley Park Hospital and this week all anaesthetists are being re-roled as intensive care doctors. We will be tasked with putting the sickest patients under anaesthetic and onto ventilators/life support machines. Each patient will require 10 days+ on a ventilator then may need a temporary tracheostomy to get them off the ventilator.
The intensive care unit is already full of COVID-19 patients on ventilators (12) with more requiring ventilation every day. My hospital usually has 4-10 patients on ventilators and is planning and EXPECTING 80 patients to require ventilation.
It seems the public health message is not getting through. Let me be clear. A lot of people are going to die. They will mainly be 70 years plus but be in no doubt, 30-40 year olds will die too.
Pubs have been busy, offices open, social events happening, kids parties etc. It all needs to stop. Infected people shed virus and it must be everywhere by now. It is your social responsibility to engage in social distancing. Actions NOW can prevent further disease transmission, ICU admissions and deaths in 10-20 days.
Two of my anaesthetic/ICU colleagues in other hospitals are off work due to being infected (doing ok). As health care workers, we are now EXPECTING to catch it despite PPE. This virus has been transmitted around the globe unchecked and will not stop until it has no where to go - social distancing/isolation Or patient death.
Here ends my public health message.
On a more personal level, my son turned three years old last week and is six weeks into a three year chemotherapy program for lymphoma. This virus is a big threat to his life and as I am going to be exposed this week doing my job, I can no longer live at home.
I have had to make the difficult choice: to do my job and save lives of people I don’t know, or to be with my son whilst he battles cancer. Alfie hopefully will survive his cancer and chemo, but many people will die from flu. My heart is broken making this decision, but I choose to save the lives of strangers and leave him in the care of my beautiful wife and family.
Later this week I’ll be moving into a motor home and will not be able to take any further part in his care for the next 6 months.
Bottom line. SOCIALLY ISOLATE or people die in two weeks".
"do you have a source for that? because thats not what the koch institute (German federal public health institute) say they do"
Was part of a discussion on the radio earlier this afternoon .
Cannot find ref to it online at all.
Most folk saying the discrepancy is down to the age of the infected. Germany has a high % of young people infected currently. Blamed on their ski holidays.
Was part of a discussion on the radio earlier this afternoon .
Which radio station? I've been following on Eins Extra which had footage from the Koch Institute earlier.
There's plenty on line, in English too. This is out of date as Mme Merkel changed the measures in a speech earlier.
When Sturgeon saw this her response?
I would *never* use language like this, obvs 😉 - but we could all do with a smile just now. And if humour helps get the message across...
WWSTWD.
As a family of 4 ( child aged 8 and a baby 5months) we are on observing social distancing guidelines. I have approached my boss/the owner a couple of times regarding WFH - I work on the phone and email so no real reason why I can’t, it’s a very small company- five employees.
He obviously isn’t keen on the idea and suggests we just spread out a bit. However, I am concerned about his attitude towards the virus, is he’s always playing down the seriousness of it, a lot of whataboutery on FB -it only affects the oldies etc.
He is currently complaining of a temp and tiredness but claims this is purely down to his infected bawbag following a vasectomy. A co-worker has been given time off due to a tight chest - which is also “unrelated” to C19.
Currently weighing up whether to straight up say I’m not coming in whether you like it or not - not pay me, whatever or hold it out ‘til the likely coming lock-down.
So yeah WWSTWD ?
WFH. don't give him a choice. quote government policy at him. Go no where near the plague rat!
With regard to the German death rate. IIRC I saw a quote from someone in the german government stating that when the dust settles he expects the rates to be similar. I think most of the difference with be accounting differences.
WWSTWD?
look after your family.
When Sturgeon saw this her response?
LOL - Just woken up Teej? I posted this 2 hours ago 🙂
U.K. is one week behind Spain and two weeks behind Italy. We should be doing now what they are doing now not what they were doing a week ago.
@spectablis
Just say that if he ****s you over you will let the whole world know on social media.
Does anyone think, that when this is all looked back upon, that the ‘its only affecting the old and vulnerable’ message at the start is what will ultimately be blamed for the lack of cooperation (at least in the beginning) leading to such high death rates? I have to say, I wasn’t all that worried 10 days ago, but as a 35 year old diabetic, am not leaving the house lest it’s for medical reasons until we get to where China is now.
Thought this might raise a smile...
Wuhan is a city with 11 million people. It took them a while to identify that the pneumonia’s were not pneumonia.
Look at its population density in this picture(2015)
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-street-level-population-density-of-the-central-area-of-Wuhan-City-in-2015_fig2_334175751
Putting my tin foil hat on, China did not tell the rest of the world how bad it was early enough, and they are now doctoring he numbers to cover it up.
Sorry Scotroutes - not following every post here. Too slow, too old, too technically illiterate 😉
Hmm… the message coming out of China was clear, early enough for everyone else to act accordingly… it was other countries that shrugged off the warning for too long.
Maybe an indication of how serious this is... McDonald's are closing all their branches in UK & Ireland by end of day tomorrow.
https://twitter.com/McDonaldsUK/status/1241824519280566274?s=09
Although I'm now waiting for another run on the supermarkets - no more burgers and chips in the frozen section by Tuesday!
Just spotted this headline:
‘ Harvey Weinstein Tests Positive For Coronavirus In NY State Prison; Convicted Producer In Isolation’
One might hope that his isolation becomes an extended one, at least. I won’t wish any more than that.
And the UK still ignoring that message.
I need to go to work tomorrow and I would rather stay home.
why did mcdonalds not shut on friday?
Takeaways innit
why did mcdonalds not shut on friday?
Restuarants/cafes are still allowed to do takeaway. McDonalds do takeaway/drivethru.
It's telling that of the 14 doctors that have died treating this disease in Italy, all except one were over 60 years old, and he was in his late 50s.
Ed .- Skype repoerter from Berlin repeated exactly that ( the demographic thing ,plus returning skiers ) on the BBC World news at 9pm this evening Should be on iPlaya . Also that Germany was not including positives for C-19 if the patient died of a heart attack , but PM showed C-19 in system .If I translated it correctly, was a crappy line and heavy accent
Its Ok my Mums church are all going shopping for the oldies, till I explained it was yet another pair of hands touching every item and probably inviting said person into your home for tea and biscuits following delivery . No clue on touch transmision posibilities .
Was the Sturgeon wearing false eye lashes on the daily brief today? Gotta look great whilst delivering shite news
This is a pretty terrifying insight into what the virus does and the impact on the body. Obviously at the extreme end of the scale but still scares me
Spain to extend lockdown til 11th April. I'd imagine they'll be cracking down on transgressions. My mate got fined today for going to a shop 'too far from home'.
People getting slapped with fines for only buying beer. A pensioner was fined for chasing Pokémon in Madrid. A bloke airlifted off a Pyrenee just hours after lockdown started is in trouble, unless he dies of shame first.
hing ,plus returning skiers ) on the BBC World news at 9pm this evening Should be on iPlaya . Also that Germany was not including positives for C-19 if the patient died of a heart attack , but PM showed C-19 in system
not whats being said here, what its saying is that they dont routinely test for COVID in PM, but theres no surge in non-corona deaths either, so they are probably catching them all & they are testing those suspected petty heavily
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/germany-low-coronavirus-mortality-rate-puzzles-experts
Putting my tin foil hat on, China did not tell the rest of the world how bad it was early enough, and they are now doctoring he numbers to cover it up.
China has more death than the announced death as far as we are concerned in the far east. We don't believe China's published numbers as simple as that.
If you compare that to the Italian number then China's number does not make sense. Bear in mind that in Chinese household there are normally 3 generations living together which is a bit like in Italy.
Social media in the far east just mentioned today that in fact things were already happening in early October and many were already told about virus outbreak.
Therefore, China has been hiding the actual death number or at least they did not know the cause of the early death.
I read somewhere that pangolin sales suddenly stopped in October, I just can’t find the source.
BB - yes, saw that and posted it up there somewhere for Daz to use in 'persuading' his teen daughter that she really shouldn't be out with her mates.
It's scary, possibly a little fictionalised but makes the point like a blunt instrument to the head.
This photo gave me the wobbles:
https://twitter.com/darreneuronews/status/1241856707594248192?s=21
Not the kind of environment any of us picture ourselves being treated in when at our most vulnerable.
It’s like a Hipgnosis album cover.
If anyone believes the Chinese numbers I've got a lovely bridge for sale.
The only reason this has spread so far and so quickly is mainly on the backs of Chinese tourists and unfortunately the virus surge happening over the Chinese New Year celebrations, one of the biggest annual human mass migrations where people visit family in China then go back to wherever they are living (late Jan/early Feb).
It took a general strike by all our medical staff and a small bombing campaign to get the HK government, subservient to the CCP, to not close the border but at least put restrictions in place.
The only reason this has spread so far and so quickly is mainly on the backs of Chinese tourists
Most of the entry points to Europe and USA seem to have been attributed to people who had been out working in China, not due to tourism. It’s then spread within Europe and the USA where China has no jurisdiction (an awful lot of that was indeed tourism). But, carry on blaming China if it makes you feel better.
trump clearly blames China - check his and pompeo's terminology; conditioning their base.
And then we have this prize chump
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/488917-peter-king-china-must-face-serious-consequences-for-indefensible-behavior-at
Couple of weeks ago somewhere up there ^^^ I asked how long it would take before the blame game started and reparations demands started; now we have the answer.
When will someone tell trump that Spanish Flu should be, more accurately, described as US flu; it originated in the US and is without doubt the biggest bigliest virus ever and it's one of the greatest ever exports from the US.
trump clearly blames China
We in Asia and S.E.Asia also attribute the virus to China. No conspiracy. We have no trade war etc with China.
Remember SARS? Also originated from China via the consumption of wildlife.
Google RaTG13 (some sort of Bat virus) as this is 96% similar to Covid-19 and the bats are sold in Wuhan market "secretly". Yes, some might say that there are other nations that also consume bats but did not develop into Covid-19 but in my opinion it is just a matter of time before other kind of virus mutate. Note that there are some viruses in Indonesia that are killing livestocks but not reported. However, social media has reported that people frequently notice livestocks death that is not commonly seen. Most news are not reported in the west because they are all reported in the local dialects or languages. Also the consumption of pangolin to see the virus they carry.
In my view the moment the virus mutates to "join force" with other viruses then we will see more pandemic and perhaps even more lethal. All it takes is for a host that has all the viruses (but the person not affected) to help the mutation.
If you understand the regional languages used by social media then you will be able to see all the reasoning.
Many in S.E.Asia are the descendants of China so we know how they talk or act. We see them coming.
Finally, China calling themselves as a "developed nation" and with all the wealth they have generated continues to turns a blind eye on the consumption of wildlife as if it is the birth right, until now.