@bob_summers According to this article running is now band in Spain :-O
(But I guess if it's the commute should be ok!)
I saw on the guardian earlier that two different letters were sent to govt. one with 200 signatories from scientists saying herd immunity will fail and another by 150 social scientists saying there is no proof of behavioural fatigue being an issue.
Interestingly we went for a quick pint last night and the pub was heaving, more so than normal and I saw on social media that one cafe has had its busiest ever day. Wonder if people are going out with the expectation that soon it won't be sensible to do so?
Aye that's my rationale @dot - I'm hardly going to contract it running or riding 10k on back lanes, compared to taking the train.
To achieve a 4-5 week lockdown would require marshal law and the sort of strict discipline this country just doesn’t do. For every reasonable action there will always be one twit that thinks the law doesn’t apply to them or will break it simply out of spite. Take a few links out the chain and you would have a complete breakdown of discipline. I’m not being defeatist, I’m being realistic.
This doesn't invalidate total lockdowns. It's not about one person, it's about probabilities and limiting the spread enough so that contact tracing can take place.
Hong Kong and Singapore have managed it, or are we so racist that we won't learn from them?
Aye, just finished a 10k run in town, round corner from my house, it's like any other Saturday, lasses wi hardly any clothes on, guys smoking in groups outside the pubs etc, but they've not had any guidance to say otherwise tbf.
Its just bizarre.
And a Norwegian airlines plane that hasn't moved since they went tits up took off, going to bring folks back from Spain I'd imagine.
We attempted to drink our local dry last night - all closed as of today - but there were very few people out
Is this the first one at the start of the fall of Man?
oooh oooh, I'm going retract the Boris theory entered for tin foil hat of the day award and go for extra terrestrial ecologists managing an infestation.
I expect Cummings was dead chuffed that Thanos wasn't that bothered about being labelled a misfit or weirdo.
Had quie a few of my older customers tell me they are in at risk group eg ongoing illness or over 60 plus, and theyre just waiting for the inevitable, what can i tell them, ignore the sun and daily mail, turn off the news on the tv and just carry on regardless,for those older in their 90,s,like they did in the last war for some of them,rationing /bombs, no nhs, and no power or gas for days.
KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON. WHAT WILL BE WILL BE.
Back to the conspiracy. This thing with China claiming it's a US bio-weapon. Well has anyone considered that this is perfect timing for the US presidential election to be cancelled and Trump to be awarded emergency powers? Sound familiar?
no proof of behavioural fatigue being an issue.
If you're in a vulnerable group, you shouldn't need a government lock down to know that you should isolate yourself.
This thing with China claiming it’s a US bio-weapon.
Stop with that bullshit.
WHAT WILL BE WILL BE.
Determined by the actions of the people you live amongst, as well as your own.
And another thing, where the hell are the labour party on this? I follow all the candidates and existing leadership on twitter, along with a number of left-leaning journalists and commentators and other than Paul Mason there's barely been a peep out of them on this 'Herd Immunity/genocide/cull' policy.
Stop with that bullshit.
Not serious. It was a vain attempt to go back to the good old early days of this thread when it was all just an amusing topic of conversation. How fast things change!
Hong Kong and Singapore have managed it, or are we so racist that we won’t learn from them?
Nothing to do with racism, both are fairly totalitarian next to our country with totally different social attitudes to government orders or outbreak control (delete as applicable). That's before you consider they are both effectively city states with a dense population concentrated in near enough one area, completely the opposite to the UK.
Hong Kong has a great many lessons to offer us, sadly we will probably be learning then 17 years too late. Last time I was there (2010) they were still hot on disinfection and personal hygiene post-SARS. Judging by the clatty bastards I work with any actual spread will rip through us before we know what hit us.
Even the local supermarket was quiet. I thought all the stories would mean it was heaving. It looked busy to start with but then I coughed a couple of times and remarked that it felt quite hot and the place was suddenly much less busy...
I was in Sainsbury's earlier & when some bloke coughed loudly everyone else looked round like there had been a gunshot
Lisa Nandy has been on the ball all alone (I meant to type “along”, but that still makes sense) @dazh … calling for the Brexit imp period to be extended for a year, right now, to give us one thing to handle at a time … also calling for a proper plan to protect the elderly. I’ll dig up links…
Liked this tweet from Ivan Cortina
https://twitter.com/ivan_cortina/status/1238879327590273024?s=19
One grand tour to start in Italia and finish in Spain via France 😂
Then why do people like Francois Balloux and Spiegelhalter seem to have reservations about the governments approach?
The government's approach seems to be two-pronged, based on both psychology and virology. Which I think is quite intelligent. I still think this is all softening us up and then when they do introduce more severe restrictions next week we'll be all over it.
Re the 60% immunity, I think it depends on which 60% get it. 60% of us can afford to get it, have a cough for a bit, then carry on. I'd volunteer for this if it'd help keep it suppressed for the rest.
I still think this is all softening us up and then when they do introduce more severe restrictions next week we’ll be all over it.
Softening us up? I suppose so. Waiting ‘till it’s gone from no one seemingly knowing anyone with it, to everyone knowing someone with it. I still think it’s a mistake and we should be seeking to contain it before it’s widespread. The part of this that assumes it’s better to have it spread than trust the public to act for a longer period is both wrong headed and insulting, in my opinion.
First case in our family by the way (tested positive). Not in our household though, thank…
Interesting way to soften up the population by making them all think you're trying to kill their elderly relatives. Is this what civil servants would call a 'brave' policy?
Oh, and #boristhebutcher is now trending on twitter! He should give Gordon Brown a ring about how quickly a prime ministership can to turn to shit.
Things are getting serious here in Spain. state of emergency announced yesterday and limit of movement of people being discussed right now.
Major deviation from the UK approach here in NI. Effectively a split on sectarian lines (unsurprisingly).
SF calling for schools and colleges to close and an approach similar to ROI. Catholic Church has cancelled all masses and religious ceremonies. Gaelic Athletic Association has cancelled all training and matches. DUP etc steadfastly following the lead from London.
Looks like plans afoot to lock up the elderly https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-14/elderly-to-be-quarantined-for-four-months-in-wartime-style-mobilisation-to-combat-coronavirus/
I still don't understand the delay. Totally understand that taking a small amount of time to organise it properly will be better than panicking, but it'd be better if they said they'd bring this in as soon as they can. I also wonder whether this is a move in reaction to the criticism they deservedly received? I hope I never hear the phrase 'herd immunity' again.
Anyone else keeping their kids off school next week?
Personally have zero confidence in the douche bags running our country..
plus they are all already ill / recovering from a recent cold cough so not too keen on them get c19 if already run down. 2 weeks ago 50% of our kids school (33 kids from a school of 67)were off (all pretty much became ill on the same day) with the same sore throat, cough virus type illness...
Nope, the boy can go to school.
infection rates among aged 9 or below are tiny with very little risk.
I am at the point of wondering when it would be best to catch it, but essentially the schools will be an infection vector and sadly nothing will stop that.
Anyone else keeping their kids off school next week?
Nope, statistically the safest group to catch it. More concerned about our parents TBH.
djglover
Looks like plans afoot to lock up the elderly
Eff that. I'll be out on my bike.
Anyone else keeping their kids off school next week?
We're back and forth over this at home at the moment.
Daughter was apparently told in one class (yr10) they're prepping lesson packs now, and will close Friday at latest, irrespective of government position.
I hope I never hear the phrase ‘herd immunity’ again.
I hope I hear it just as soon as a vaccine is in production, and given to medical staff and the elderly.
Nope, statistically the safest group to catch it. More concerned about our parents TBH.
Well lets hope the kids dont vector it there way!
Looks like plans afoot to lock up the elderly
Eff that. I’ll be out on my bike.
I'm with you Epicyclo
My rampant paranoia says don’t trust any “rushed” vaccine as it’ll bring on the impending zombie apocalypse.
Also all unnecessary shops in France are to be shut BUT local elections going ahead!
It will be ok if you take your own pencil to the polling office
Eff that. I’ll be out on my bike
You might not be if UK follows Spain.
There's also the school of thought that you might knack yourself and take up a precious hospital bed 😂
People out on their balconies applauding the nurses at 10pm every night, a bit cheesy but quite nice to hear.
Interesting stat I hadn't seen:
The total number of confirmed cases in the UK has reached 1,140 while 37,746 people have been tested.
So out of the people who ticked enough boxes to warrant testing, only 3% even had the disease at all.
Molgrips, so what you're saying is that we should listen to some psychologist on twitter and take the Nudge units word that their "behavioural psychology" models are accurate, over the concerns of other epidemiologists, virologists and statisticians.
Spiegelhalter is the man when in comes to understanding the accuracy, need for evidence and real world implications of models. Behavioural psychologists are not, they are not statisticians, they are not epidemiologists. The entire field of behavioural psychology has major reproducibility issues.
Watch this.
Stop telling people who know more than you, that they should shut up and tow the line. That's not what good science is about.
Schools in Shetland are closed now and most events and clubs have cancelled.
The cinema is still open but restricting numbers so that there's space so people can space themselves out 😂
Some cafes/restaurants have closed or only offering take out. Our local hotel isn't taking guests or serving food, just drinks.
As of Friday we had 11 confirmed cases out of a population of 22k, but there's little testing.
bob_summers
You might not be if UK follows Spain.
100 yards from my house and I'm on the slope of the mountain. There's plenty forest to disappear into.
If there's a lockdown, I'll be bikepacking for 4 months.
If they look serious about doing it, I'll put the gear together, and I'll be out the door. The family can do food drops for me.
The only worry is how to carry 5 years supply of toilet paper on the bike. That's how much the preppers reckon we need, isn't it?... 🙂
Well this has thread has well and truly gone off the deep end hasn’t it?
Thought you was dead 🙂
(Nothing like a bit of light hearted brevity and an escape from New York reference)
Anyway to live up to my nom de plume
Herd immunity - I’d scribbled some numbers down on a fag packet for a friend a few weeks ago on a small subset of data, then promptly threw it away as they were away to unpalatable and those numbers were nothing like er what the uk gov seem happy with.
From a man who used a bus to promise funding and then offered to build 40 more hospitals to get a free flat,I feel a bit annoyed that this is the best response as I saw the Chinese build a hospital on fb in a week to help with their problem.
