balancing too exceedingly unlikely events, taking the vaccine comes off slightly worse.
The stats are still very much in favour for the az vaccine tbf. 1 in a million odds of dying with a clot apparently. 30 year olds may have minimal risk of covid but I'd be staggered if it's 1 in a million.
As for chrispo blethering on about how he was right all along etc etc. No you weren't.. the odds are miniscule, in Fact I had assumed from the outset they'd be far higher than they are. Media are blowing this massively out of proportion.
I would happily have the az vaccine. My issue is I think it's absolutely wrong that they have said only certain age groups will get an option. Should be same rules for everyone.
we're not in disagreement - I still think the AZ is very safe, even with the new numbers; it's marginally not as very safe as previously thought. And as there are alternatives, then we should use them where appropriate / to most effect to make it even safer.
It has been a fantastic science response, I'm not criticising that at all. Nor am I criticising the new info, amend the approach response. That's how progress really gets made, not by blindly sticking to a plan just because it's the plan.
agreed jon
I’d be staggered if it’s 1 in a million.
It has been when known that the risk is tiny, but Van Tam's slide showed a slightly higher risk for the vaccine so be staggered.
Should be same rules for everyone.
No it shouldn't because the risk profile is completely different - risks of clots goes down as you get older, risk of covid death goes up.
As DrJ posed earlier, if risk in children is even higher for clots, more so than their risk from serious covid, then what point do regulators decide wider benefit to society of them being vaccinated justifies its use?
Not a decision id want to take, but then I have young kids, so ill worry
And sou ds tough for you somafunk, hope you're feeling better soon
Ah I’m fine, really I am. On the mend and quite chirpy as I can now function pretty much without help 80% of the time which is a vast improvement over 6 weeks previous when I was an immobile lump of useless fat & gristle, I can still wipe my own arse.
Van Tam’s slide showed a slightly higher risk for the vaccine so be staggered.
Van Tam's slide was ICU admittance rather than death - both around one in 100,000
As DrJ posed earlier, if risk in children is even higher for clots, more so than their risk from serious covid, then what point do regulators decide wider benefit to society of them being vaccinated justifies its use?
They have decided wrt az. Trials will continue. It's not just about benefits to society either, but children don't remain children, they'll need protection in later life too.
And protection gained via vaccine rather than exposure is protection gained without an opportunity for a new variant to start its journey. I really hope we will be vaccinating teens later this year. It doubt it’ll be AZ though. We’re entering a very dangerous part of this pandemic now, with high enough vaccination levels in the UK to foster an attitude of “it’s over”, but with a large proportion of the population mixing in close contact, unvaccinated, and offering up hundreds of thousands of chances for a new vaccine resistant variant to develop and spread before we are prepared for it. Or a variant that has a new unwanted effect on the unvaccinated young.
Isn’t comparing the clotting risk a bit like comparing apples and oranges? I know quite a few people who have had DVT and have been fixed pretty easily; not sure if this is spin or not but the media makes out this type of clot associated with the az vaccine is more dangerous?
I also worry that with a 4-14 day lag between getting the vaccine and getting complications, as there is an age related component the numbers of those affected might ramp up quickly given the speed of roll-out and strategy of starting with the oldest. Maybe it’s a happy co-incidence that rate if first vaccine is going to slow as they give second jabs, so more time can be spent looking at the issue.
Some really great news out this morning. UCL study shows that through a combination of vaccination acquired immunity and prior virus exposure immunity, the UK has now reached, or will have by this Monday, the 74% threshold required for Herd Immunity.
Woohoo, from Monday we can get back to normality!
I think the media have again let themselves and us down on this. They’ve jumped on the European’s concerns gladly almost but have failed to represent the numbers adequately and compared these to the risks we have routinely taken for years.
This is my big bug bear about this. BBC news last night was all about the risk of clots in the headlines, but in the actual head to head with the health correspondent he pointed out that someone aged 20-30 was much more likely to die in a car accident, but no one was suggesting they stop driving. I got the impression their "expert" was getting fed up of editorial headline grabbing.
Woohoo, from Monday we can get back to normality!
And
not as very safe as previously thought
There’s your media headlines, leading to the bleedin obvious after people’s behaviour determines it’s ok to mix socially and and refusal of the AZ.
It’s downright dangerous in the circumstances and as much as I wouldnt propose state controlled media it needs to stop for the benefit of all. it’s currently more dangerous not to wear flight socks than have the AZ, but that kind of comparison is not being made clear.
Some really great news out this morning. UCL study shows that through a combination of vaccination acquired immunity and prior virus exposure immunity, the UK has now reached, or will have by this Monday, the 74% threshold required for Herd Immunity.
Not seen the report but sounds dubious given vaccines aren’t 100% effective in stopping transmission (I recall a figure of 60% but not sure). I though based on this it had been deemed herd immunity was a pipe dream even with 100% vaccine uptake.
Also any mathematical calculations on herd immunity would assume an even distribution of immunity in the population as people mix more in their own cohorts, so you might have herd immunity in a care home but not amongst a group of 30 year olds who are yet to have a jab.
I see there being three issues though with 'that kind of comparison is not being made clear'
1/ The general public do not in general understand risk. 1/47,000 have had clots with the AZ - so 46,999/47,000 haven't? And then there's the '5x increase in risk' - has to be bad, it's an increase! But when that's from miniscule to incredibly tiny.....
2/ The general public do not in general understand risk-benefit. A lot of what we do is 'risky', but we do it because we want or need to. MTBing, DIY, Gardening, driving.....so we accept almost without thought (I can tell you the 1/47,000 stat above but what's the risk of me seriously injuring myself on a ride? I reckon it's low enough and I enjoy riding, so where's my plastic hat.....)
Exacerbated when the risk is to us but the benefit is to others. What's really in it for the youngsters? (Devil's advocate, not my opinion) - Vaccine passports will be squashed eventually, we don't live in that kind of state and herd immunity will enable opening anyway. Or, we can refuse to have the vaccine and keep the country locked down and held to ransom until they open up. Especially when the benefit is to sections of society that are perceived, rightly or wrongly (ans: it's a grey area) to have polluted the planet and left us to deal with it, soaked up all the affordable houses, voted us out of freedom of movement. Or businesses, being bolstered by Gov cash but desperate to reopen so they can employ us on min wage / zero hours contracts under new non-EU employment laws.... but pretty please roll your sleeve up so we can get on with life. (Oh, and while you're waiting do you mind if I have 2 weeks on Mallorca?)
3/ It's actually relatively easy to distill the data and science down into bite sized and digestible nuggets of info that the general public could understand. Three word slogans, even, or words on a bus work well. But (and on balance I think this is a good thing) - we still live in a country where freedom of thought and libertarian values are high. The downside is that in this information war, there's a guerilla enemy. One that can cut down any properly produced and reviewed data and opinion, whether as a paper or a short instruction, by dismissing it as propaganda or conspiracy. And given this and previous Gov's appalling record on truth, who can blame there being scepticism. Meanwhile - the other side don't have to worry about such annoyances as peer review or scrutiny. They don't even have to show their working; "I can't say who but I have a mate who really knows her stuff, and she's extensively researched this and I trust her when she says it's all down to space lizards" - retweeted a few thousand times to people inclined to believe that - how do you counter it?
There will be a significant drop off in uptake in the over 30s age group now I assume. Folks that were swithering whether to get it will think it's not worth it.
I'm assuming every one over 30 will be getting the az version now that they need to keep stocks of the others for the under 30s. Cant see how that doesn't impact the timeline of end of July
I was hoping to get one of the others purely as I thought they were more effective against the other strains but that hope has gone out the window
There will be a significant drop off in uptake in the over 30s age group now I assume. Folks that were swithering whether to get it will think it’s not worth it.
But does that even matter if herd immunity has been reached?
But does that even matter if herd immunity has been reached?
Why do you think heard immunity will have been reached? The whole concept of it has already been disproved has it not? (due to the nature of the virus.)
Why do you think heard immunity will have been reached? The whole concept of it has already been disproved has it not? (due to the nature of the virus.)
Sorry not me saying that, the scientists at UCL.
There will be a significant drop off in uptake in the over 30s age group now I assume. Folks that were swithering whether to get it will think it’s not worth it.
I’m assuming every one over 30 will be getting the az version now that they need to keep stocks of the others for the under 30s. Cant see how that doesn’t impact the timeline of end of July
I was hoping to get one of the others purely as I thought they were more effective against the other strains but that hope has gone out the window
Which will have knock on effects on the Covid Passport policy or the music/events/nightlife industry.
Which will have knock on effects on the Covid Passport policy or the music/events/nightlife industry.
Indeed, has not the USA just ruled out any vaccine passport or certificate, on the grounds of privacy, human rights, discrimination and all the potential pitfalls that could come with having a two tier society?
Meanwhile – the other side don’t have to worry about such annoyances as peer review or scrutiny. They don’t even have to show their working; “I can’t say who but I have a mate who really knows her stuff, and she’s extensively researched this and I trust her when she says it’s all down to space lizards” – retweeted a few thousand times to people inclined to believe that – how do you counter it?
But unless you yourself have personally read, understood and analysed all the underlying science, and I mean all of it, you too are leaping to conclusions based on blind faith.
So when you’re married to that person, and they do have workings, and they don’t blame it on something patently silly like Bill Gates or lizards, what do you do?
Well, ask STW, obvs.
Are there any figures for how many people offered the vaccine have turned it down?
What's your alternative approach chrispo?
If you're rejecting vaccination how do you as an individual carry on with life? How should wider society approach this?
Are there any figures for how many people offered the vaccine have turned it down?
There's an uptake number I believe. Probably best you go look that up. That will tell you what percentage of offers were not, err, taken up.
But unless you yourself have personally read, understood and analysed all the underlying science, and I mean all of it, you too are leaping to conclusions based on blind faith.
Trusting the credibility of sources and hence the reliability of their evidence is not 'blind faith', it's the whole purpose of peer review and examination that the people giving the information can be trusted. Failure to do that is the beginnings of conspiracy....
You might trust your wife completely (didn't you say ex wife before?) and so trust her evidence but I not knowing who you are talking about, I can't give her the same credibility as Prof Whitty, or JVT, or the EMA or MHRA. But bring the data/evidence and I'll happily look at it.
A particularly well constructed presentation on the risk/reward of AZ, used as the basis of last night's briefing
https://wintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk/news/communicating-potential-benefits-and-harms-astra-zeneca-covid-19-vaccine/
A particularly well constructed presentation on the risk/reward of AZ, used as the basis of last night’s briefing> https://wintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk/news/communicating-potential-benefits-and-harms-astra-zeneca-covid-19-vaccine/
Alright jab it in me, that's pretty compelling when you look at it like that.
Thread reader not working for me too.
Assume that the risk of thrombolytic events is fixed at about 4/million, irrespective of age, and that is presumably what the data shows across the 79 cases (plus a further 80 in EMA dataset). The risk of mortality is perhaps 1% in the 80+ group, that's 10,000/million, so a ratio of 2500:1 in favour. If the mortality risk halves about every five years, so 70's is 600:1, 60's 300:1, 50's is 150:1, 40's is 75:1, 30's is 30:1 20's is 15:1. In fact the halving every half-decade my be an under-estimate for younger age groups, but one can see that the benefit risk falls such that a cut-off is reasonable. Where that cut off falls is a clinical judgement.
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3259 is a nice accessible read on risk of death from David Spiegelhalter
Identification of such a risk is a triumph of pharmacovigilence. the rigor to which COVID has been studied is hugely greater than many other diseases. My wife is allergic to paracetamol. A drug so widely used that most medical professionals simply do not accept this as an effect. But very rare events are just that. Acetominophen is the US name for paracetamol.
The latest I've seen on uptake is this Uptake in over 70s. 90% uptake. Of course that's only over 70s and predates the concerns over blood clots.
What’s your alternative approach chrispo? If you’re rejecting vaccination how do you as an individual carry on with life? How should wider society approach this?
I'm not rejecting vaccination. I have already taken one for the team. I was originally questioning the blind faith in the official line on here, and now I'm just calling out the bullies for what they are. Yes, I know it's pointless, but it has given me a certain satisfaction.
There’s an uptake number I believe. Probably best you go look that up. That will tell you what percentage of offers were not, err, taken up
I mean specifically for people who have actively refused the vaccine, not including people who haven't taken it due to other conditions or just didn't turn up for some reason. I mean the heaving masses of anti-vaxxers and conspiracy theorists who were set to bring about the imminent demise of mankind not too long ago. It's making some people here look a little silly now.
You might trust your wife completely (didn’t you say ex wife before?) and so trust her evidence but I not knowing who you are talking about, I can’t give her the same credibility as Prof Whitty, or JVT, or the EMA or MHRA
I don't and I didn't, which is why I sought other opinions, and she wasn't but now she is. The government and the NHS and the drug companies have just as much of an axe to grind as the anti-vaxxers. They're all very capable of using the same data to support very different positions. So it probably pays to remain sceptical about all of them. Which is where this all started.
Oh. Right. I'm out. Again.
BBC news last night was all about the risk of clots in the headlines, but in the actual head to head with the health correspondent he pointed out that someone aged 20-30 was much more likely to die in a car accident, but no one was suggesting they stop driving. I got the impression their “expert” was getting fed up of editorial headline grabbing.
Well, the news was about a policy change in regard to AZ for under 30s, so that is the story, the hard part is learning to communicate the nature of risk to the layperson. The public has spent decades throwing their hard-earned at the lottery, when there is more chance of getting struck by lightning than winning.
The human focus is always hardwired on the individual big loser/winner rather than the millions who did not win or lose.
Which will have knock on effects on the Covid Passport policy or the music/events/nightlife industry.
As a bit of a cynic, I suspect the proposal of a covid passport for nightclubs etc is more to drive uptake in the under 30s before July. 'Get your jab, you'll need it to go out later in the summer'.
I do wonder if it will ever actually see light of day.
Anecdotal, but out of the people I know who've had the jab, (AZ I think but can't confirm 100%), three have suffered flu like symptoms such that they have had to go to bed for 2-3 days. One, since having the jab over a month ago has been left with constant and severe headaches and has been unable to work since having it. Many to be fair have also had no symptoms.
Read into that what you will but it is clear that there are some more common but less serious side effects out there than the rare instances of clotting.
I am pro-vax but after this I am undecided whether I'll have it now. The government propaganda and threats of vaccine passports (coercion) makes me suspicious and is starting to turn me off. Yes it is probably very safe, but at 41 and fit and healthy I don't feel I'm at any great risk from Covid-19 either. I therefore have the luxury, not being vulnerable to make my own risk assessment. The other factor is that I am pretty certain that my wife and I had Covid early last year after returning back from our ski trip to Italy. We couldn't get a test at the time however the symptoms were mild, but as described.
One, since having the jab over a month ago has been left with constant and severe headaches and has been unable to work since having it.
Hopefully he/she has gone to be checked out to exclude thrombosis.
Hopefully he/she has gone to be checked out to exclude thrombosis.
I don't know to be honest. It's the dad of one of my best friends. I think it's a bit of a struggle convince a GP to see you face to face these days in my experience.
I am pro-vax but after this I am undecided whether I’ll have it now. The government propaganda and threats of vaccine passports (coercion) makes me suspicious and is starting to turn me off. Yes it is probably very safe, but at 41 and fit and healthy I don’t feel I’m at any great risk from Covid-19 either.
You may not be, but all the people you might effect could be. If you decide not have the vaccination I hope you're considering others and ensuring you undertake hardcore social distancing relevant to your classification as a "Spreader". What you gamble with your own life is your business, but you need to realise the impact of this decision upon others, not just yourself.
Yes it is probably very safe, but at 41 and fit and healthy I don’t feel I’m at any great risk from Covid-19 either.
You're not at risk from dying from it (well, very very low risk), but you are at risk of scratching "fit and healthy" from the way you describe yourself. Anyone who enjoys cycling should be careful not to take their health for granted. I'll be taking the vaccine as soon as it's available to me. Any version. My teens I hope will get the Pfizer one.
It’s making some people here look a little silly now
What's making people look silly? All the evidence suggests a miniscule chance of adverse affects leading to death. This is to be expected with any vaccine or drug, nothing has changed in that regard. No-one has tried to hide that fact since the vaccine's launch.
The fact that you are coming on here gleefully saying ' I told you so' after they discover a 1 in a million risk of taking the vaccine, simply marks you out as someone that didnt really understand the risks in the first place
Re people having an axe to grind. My brother is on the UK vaccine safety panel. I'm pretty sure if he thought there was a risk he would not have had it himself, nor his wife, nor his mum and dad. And I'm pretty sure hed tell me there is an issue before I get my dose.
And I imagine he knows a little more about the risks than your wife..
A particularly well constructed presentation on the risk/reward of AZ, used as the basis of last night’s briefing
https://wintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk/news/communicating-potential-benefits-and-harms-astra-zeneca-covid-19-vaccine/Alright jab it in me, that’s pretty compelling when you look at it like that.
I agree, totally compelling to me.
But it takes a certain level of commitment and ability to read and understand that. My wife's far from the bottom of the intelligence pile but I don't think she would....
So we distil it to a simple headline type statement that can be read and understood, and then people dismiss it as propaganda and/or axe to grind.
The only axe being ground is that some very very smart people who both understand this completely, and want absolutely the best for the country want people to have the vaccine, for their and the societal good.
As a scientist, I trust other scientists and the peer review process. If I don't then I no longer have no solid foundation of belief. Blind faith...I don't think so but YMMV.
You may not be, but all the people you might effect could be. If you decide not have the vaccination I hope you’re considering others and ensuring you undertake hardcore social distancing relevant to your classification as a “Spreader”.
THIS is exactly the sort of comment that is helping to put me off taking it. Social pressure to conform, peer pressure and judgement from others (coercion) to do the right thing (as defined by them) if you like.
Up to you pal. This isn't going away. Will you reject it in the autumn too? What about next year? You know roughly what the risks are now - what happens if a new variant gets really nasty?
Your choice of course.
Edit: but you seem to be saying 'I'm not taking it because you all want me to'.
You're not being pushed by mates in to snorting coke here. Society is trying to look after you AND itself.
you are at risk of scratching “fit and healthy” from the way you describe yourself. Anyone who enjoys cycling should be careful not to take their health for granted
This. Remember that benefit risk is evaluated for the observable endpoint benefits. For COVID19 those endpoints have been symptomatic infection, hospital admission, ICU admission and death. The last two are pretty firm numbers. Hospital admissions is confounded by NHS burden and symptomatic infection confounded by testing practices. Long COVID does not feature in amy evaluations since the epidemic is still early and studies are only starting.
Evidence suggests a significant proportion of moderately infected patients (perhaps 10% or more) take significant time to recover. Morbidity is a significant factor and the vaccines are all most definitely protective against this. Having had moderate COVID, I would not wish it on anyone. I have also had the Ox/AZ vaccine. COVID was a lot worse!
Risk is poorly understood in the general population. If you are old enough, you may recall the contraception clotting scare that led to an unintended epidemic of pregnancy. Airlines were disproportionately affected.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9368943/
Hopefully he/she has gone to be checked out to exclude thrombosis.
Unfortunately, not knowing what those symptoms actually signified meant that my partner didn’t bother, but then decided she ought to call 111 the next morning. That was the morning I found her in the throes of a cerebral venus thrombosis, which meant she was dying in front of me. It’s far too late now, but the knowledge, and the statement from Thrombosis UK on the BBC this morning that anyone exhibiting symptoms should get help, as treatment can be given has taken my fragile recovery and smashed it into fragments.
I’m heartbroken, I just don’t know how to get past this.
My beautiful Joey, nothing can replace what you brought into my life.
Yes it is probably very safe, but at 41 and fit and healthy I don’t feel I’m at any great risk from Covid-19 either.
You are not but this risk is still something like 10 times greater than your risk of having an seriously adverse reaction to the vaccine.
THIS is exactly the sort of comment that is helping to put me off taking it.
Unsurprisingly, it is an individual decision but the above ratio puts it into perspective.
CZ - so sorry to hear that.