No doubt the dumb * and their dumb * ex-wives who should have put blind faith in the UK regulator a month ago when the message was “take it” (because UK science knew better) are still dumb **** not to blindly trust the regulator now that it’s saying the opposite (because UK science didn’t).
Er, wtf?
I don't know if German numbers are making it into the UK media. A couple of numbers retained today. Vaccinating 47 000 saves one life, but, there's a 1 in 47 000 (1 in 46 thousand something hundered and 28 but I don't remember the exact number) of having a platelet/clotting issue with the AZ vaccine for some categories of people.
Madame reckons that if she has to wait an extra month for an alternative vaccine she reduces the overall risk. I agree with her given the inection rate around here at present.
Er, wtf?
Chrispo has a history of posting about how he isn’t anti-vaccine, but that someone he knows refuses to take any vaccine. It can get very ranty. Often.
Vaccinating 47 000 saves one life,
I read that it was 1 life saved for every 15000 vaccinated (French study) , but suppose that varies by healthcare capacity etc
I'm not sure the logic of the clot risk being too high for under 30s meaning they won't get the AZ vaccine is very ethical unless the risk of getting a clot is higher amongst younger people. I'm 49 and would like to minimise my risks due to Covid and from any vaccine so I'd rather not have the AZ vaccine if there is a meaningful risk of clots. However from what I can tell the risk is still extremely tiny so I'll take whatever I'm offered. As for under 30s we don't even know if the minuscule clot risk even applies to that demographic. All feels like political sleight of hand which will weaken vaccine take up further.
I wouldn't call it massive backtracking and i never though calling people dumb **** helps in the slightest. I said many times, I understand why there is concern / suspicion, but I didn't agree with it. I still don't.
That's exactly what i meant earlier when I said that being able to change a path based on new evidence is a perfectly viable option but the queue of people waiting to shout 'told you so!' or 'U-turn!' makes that increasingly hard.
I still don't think the AZ vaccine is unsafe, even the new numbers (80/20M) suggest it is overwhelmingly better than the risk of CV19 / the societal benefit of having it, but the data now seems to be suggesting that there is an even safer alternative in the Pfizer or potentially Moderna (although there is less data on these). So absolutely right that this option is taken.
So, Chrispo, seems that your position has greater credibility than me and others gave credit for. I can admit that, the data supports it.
As for under 30s we don’t even know if the minuscule clot risk even applies to that demographic
It's all about age groups (and I've no idea how much data they have & how much modelling? - 🪞Tired, Tired, Tired)
These numbers will change as we get more data tho
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1379806238310084616?s=19
Vaccinating 47 000 saves one life
I think you are misinterpreting / misrepresenting the data
Vaccinating 47000 saves one life, based on the death rates in the current situation and among the age groups concerned, but does not consider the other effects, eg: long covid (as high as 1/10 some estimates show), and the reduced chance of transferring the virus to others. It also is based on the death rate in a locked down and restricted world that we cannot sustain. You have to compare to a theoretical death rate in a more 'normal' way of life (whatever that means) where hospitals are overrun etc.
Vaccination is vital to get out of this way of life. WHICH vaccine for which demographic....is becoming a more important choice and I understand Madame's decision if that is what she chooses to do.
.
So I think that graphic up there demonstrates the issue perfectly.
I plugged some numbers for my family into the qcovid calculator when it was released. It gave me a 43 in a million chance of death from covid (51, male, no risk factors) and for my 19 year old son 1 in a million. The mhra has quoted 4.4 in a million chance of a clot with ox/az. So for me it’s a no brainer to have the vaccine. Any vaccine. For my son it’s not. His risk to benefit ratio is not so good. His overall risk of anything bad happening is much less than mine though.
But…
He won’t be having the AZ jab, he’ll get Pfizer or another, and hopefully the Pfizer trials on the school age teens will be much further on by the time they get around to 19 year olds (August?) and risk from vaccination will then be known to be far lower for all teens.
Also, your figures of “death from Covid” include periods where we’ve shut everything. We’re opening up and staying open, so those risks will not stay the same. And death is not the real risk for the young, it is ongoing poor health at an age where you could reasonably expect to normally avoid it.
Honest question for those with medical knowledge.... is there a clear difference between the blood clots arising due to the jab compared to standard strokes. I have unfortunately two experiences in the previous 2 months of older ladies ( one of them my aunt) dying from strokes just days after being given the vaccine. I had put this down to just statistics, let’s face it old ladies have strokes. But now starting to wonder if death from strokes is going to be noticeably higher during the vaccine rollout, or is it literally just coincidence and there is a clear difference between the two ( strokes were diagnosed so no post Morten)
Appreciate the more in the know from the quorums thoughts
But the benefit of your son having the vaccine is not just avoiding death. It is also the benefit of him avoiding long covid, and of reducing the risk of others catching it while enabling us to get back to 'normal'.
I understand why as an individual the numbers are now skewing against, but this is not an individual scenario.
Equally as father to two teenagers, I understand the question of why should they be considering societal good before self, particularly wrt the older age groups, when many of them have consomethingely ****ed the young over time and again. And will do again given the chance
Massive backtracking on AZ safety now.
There really isn't "massive backtracking".
had put this down to just statistics, let’s face it old ladies have strokes. But now starting to wonder if death from strokes is going to be noticeably higher during the vaccine rollout, or is it literally just coincidence and there is a clear difference between the two ( strokes were diagnosed so no post Morten)
The particular type of clots involved are rare, I doubt a PM would have been done for the very old & no idea if associated platelet crash would've been diagnosed alongside?
Tbh when Count Zero described his partners death I did wonder if side effects were being underestimated, if only 20 odd people in UK have died of it then even knowing someone removed by a couple of degrees of separation, would be incredibly unlikely
(I am neither a medic or a statistician)
Same for me
Yeah I know he won’t be getting the ox/az jab. All this discussion today only applies to that and not to Pfizer/Moderna. I get also that it’s not just risk of death. My daughter aged 22 is more concerned about long covid. She’s due her second ox/az on Friday (works in healthcare). She’s having it as she has no other option. The trials haven’t given us any data in reducing risk of long covid or transmission or any of those other things yet though have they?
And yeah “massive backtracking”!? No - just scientific method... 🙄
Is this thread broken? Every time I go to the last post from the topics menu, all I get is a Reply box. It works if I open the thread then choose the final page number though.
Yeah, same here. And same after posting. We need to await the definitive test on Drac's iPad 🙂
I think you are misinterpreting / misrepresenting the data
I don't know how I'd misrepresent a dot pointed single line from a TV screen. Jeez some of you guys sometimes. Just shout "liar liar liar" and be done with it. You mates with that other member keen to call me a liar recently, DrJ?
I just quote stuff as it's presented and then some of you leap all over it and either say I said things I didn't or accuse me of lying.
Unworthy adversaries, because I get nothing but adversarial shite on here when all I'm doing is relaying stuff from alternative media sources.
And yes the page numbering is bust for me too.
Ah. Latest page is really 694, but the topics menu thinks it's 697.
whoa Ed, rein back.
I shouldn't have said you, I take that back. I mean that data is being misinterpreted, for the reasons I then gave and and also gave to Docrobster, that that 1/47000 is based only on deaths not other effects, and also is not just a case of individuals. There's a societal balance.
I don't doubt you have represented what you saw fairly, I don't think what was shown was fair.
I also said I understood completely Madame's decision.
I’m sure however that there are now many many thousands of healthy folks in their mid 30s thinking ‘well the risk to me of covid is miniscule also, if it’s not safe enough for a 28 year old its also not safe enough for me’
This is basically where I am. 35 wfh 100% why does a handful of years make a difference to if i get a clot and die or not (yes i know what sounds dramatic). But when you look at the rest of Europe they are saying no one under 55 and so on it makes you think. If I was offered the Oxford jab tomorrow my first question would be can i have something else.
Wtf
Thank you for clarification, theotherjonv. 🙂
Avoid assuming that information from other countrys' news sources are bollox. The whole clotting issue came from places where a fraction of the doses used in the UK had been used. Initially the medics in those countries suspected a duff batch as it was imossible that the UK hadn't reported such cases if there were a problem. Then the UK authorites admitted to a handful of cases, then 30, and what are they up to now. Giving a little credence to foreigners will make you wiser.
If a little more credence and media coverage had been given to Hans Blix and his team Gulf War 2 would have never happened. For Europeans it was clear there were no WMDs. The lying by omission of the British media allowed Blair to get away with his lies.
I'm not saying that 1/47000 is 'wrong'
I'm suggesting the interpretation is loaded, and misses presenting the true risk - death of the individual being vaccinated / not vaccinated is not the only consideration.
I hesitate to say it but lies, damn lies and statistics. These are statistics, not lies.
If it was a choice between AZ or no vaccine, even if I was in the more at risk demographic I'd still take it, I think.
But that's not the choice, there are others.
You and me both &joepud - but my understanding is you don’t know till you turn up.
The low platelet thing - does that happen without the clotting? Do you have to then have to take medicine for the low platelets and how long does that take to recover from?
This is basically where I am. 35 wfh 100% why does a handful of years make a difference to if i get a clot and die or not
Absolutely...
A 32 year old me would have not been slightly worried about risk of covid, however I'd have felt I was morally obliged to get the vaccine from a society perspective.
If it was the only option Id probably have felt I should have still got it, but there is no way id have taken it if there was other options available. If we expect healthy people to get vaccinated out of a moral obligation to the more vulnerable in society we also have a moral option to give them the safest possible option if available.
Nowadays at 45 I'll take whatever I'm given as I'd be getting vaccinated as much for my benefit as for society's. But if i was early 30s with no health issues...I'd probably refuse the az vaccine and tell them if they want me vaccinated provide something else
weird that the thread seems to let me post, but not read.....
You can only read if you access the first page of the thread first, then navigate to last page. If you try to access the last page from the forum menu it doesn't show previous posts
I'm teetering, at 38 I'm unsure whether I'd ask for a vaccine other than Az or just accept it.
Unfortunately I suspect a lot of people are in the same bag following all of this and could impact the roll out for something that's so ridiculously small in risk.
I guess ultimately if there was no alternate at the time I'd just shrug my shoulders and get on with it.
Brexit thread giving me the same problem
TheotherJonV: thanks
And yeah “massive backtracking”!? No – just scientific method… 🙄
No, I meant backtracking by the people on here who have been so aggressive in accusing any doubters of being selfish conspiracy theorists but are now thinking maybe they or their family would rather not have the AZ vaccine themselves now that it might not be as safe as the science showed.
And this isn’t an “I told you so” so much as a big “**** you” to those who had a go on this and other threads, right through from “show us the evidence for your common sense or shut up” to “shut up troll” and “your wife is a dumb ****”.
Brexit thread giving me the same problem
I've reported a couple of others too. Basically, the page numbering is wrong.
Ed, I think plenty of people gave the weapons inspectors credit, such is why the anti war protest at the time of Tony's 'adventure' was iirc the largest of all time. Tbh having traveled and worked in much of Europe over the last 20 years I'm happy to accept information from foreign sources but it's a shame you so infrequently post links. In God we trust. Everyone else brings data. 😉
Just out of interest, and forgive me asking a personal question, but did Madame make use of oral contraceptive earlier on in life?
Chrispo, see my comment above about data. If you've got it, show it.
I think the media have again let themselves and us down on this. They've jumped on the European's concerns gladly almost but have failed to represent the numbers adequately and compared these to the risks we have routinely taken for years. This is the science in action. Learn from the data and adjust your course of action where you're able to and appropriate.
Anyone younger than 50 but older than 30 shouldn't over egg it IMO. This isn't just about the here and now. This jab is building your immunity for next year and the year after etc.
What the numbers really illustrate is how exceedingly low the risk of dying from covid is if you are under 30 so when balancing too exceedingly unlikely events, taking the vaccine comes off slightly worse. This balance changes markedly as you get older.
Another useful perspective is that taking the contraceptive pill has a far higher blood clotting risk than the AZ vaccine, albeit not a risk faced by many on here.
I’m teetering, at 38 I’m unsure whether I’d ask for a vaccine other than Az or just accept it.
Sky news have a really good comparison scenarios on their website. Basically your about 1000 time more likely to get a blot clot if you get on a plane. Media reporting has just blown this so far out of proportion that under the circumstances it’s scary the way it’ll put people off. A chance of a blot clot is less than 1 in 200,000 taking AZ if you’re in your 40’s, 1 in 2000 if your on the pill, 1 in 1000 being on a plane
The holiday you’re waiting for has a lot more chance of killing you via a blood clot than the AZ vaccine does but will increase your chance of dying from c19 exponentially.
What the numbers really illustrate is how exceedingly low the risk of dying from covid is if you are under 30 so when balancing too exceedingly unlikely events, taking the vaccine comes off slightly worse.
That's true. But the threat is not limited to your death; it's someone else's, or your long term illness, or someone else's long term illness.......and the odds are overwhelmingly in favour of the vaccine still. Just not as much as they were, or quite so favourable compared to other vaccines.
Yes, your scepticism seems to have had justification, albeit it's nowhere near as cut and dried as now calling AZ as unsafe. I still disagree that it's the common sense position to reject the AZ, the evidence is still overwhelmingly in favour of the vaccine, just not as much as it was. And as Del says, you got the right answer but still haven't really shown your working out (or explained why your ex-wife should be such a trusted source), so I'm still not 100% sure it wasn't 'a guess', and there's still a bit of me that wonders if you weren't taking that position just for the argument.
But yes - by whatever means you got to the conclusion, you were right, the AZ was not as safe as was initially thought.
That’s true. But the threat is not limited to your death; it’s someone else’s, or your long term illness, or someone else’s long term illness
The good for society doesn't come into an individual medical decision.
That's Dr J's question answered.
Edit: in response to jonv:
I'd take issue with that. 24 million in the UK have had az and there have been 79 serious adverse effects. Az was/is as safe for the majority of the target audience as we thought. We were right to roll it out at speed. We act on new information though. We're fortunate enough to have options and we're exercising them though in many respects we're being over cautious but we have alternatives we can target at different age groups - brilliant! What was the alternative? A year ago we didn't even know if we'd have one vaccine that would be even 50% effective. Here we are about 4 months after various vaccine have received approval and over half the population have received a very good level of protection already - it's a triumph!
Another useful perspective is that taking the contraceptive pill has a far higher blood clotting risk than the AZ vaccine, albeit not a risk faced by many on here.
in 2000 if your on the pill
3000000 women on the pill in UK, so 15000 blood clots a year or lifetime risk?
BETA: A private place for our full members to chat.
Erm.. anyone else getting this on the main forum page...?
Yes I just had that too.
Is that lifetime risk or every time someone takes the pill?
I didn't put a number on it, but the Sky number quoted is per annum.
Add me in for the AZ complication lottery, had scan on Monday along with raft of blood tests and inflammatory marker tests. Seems like my headaches/weird right eye twitches/hellish joint pain and being laid up in bed for a week with soul destroying lethargy were more than likely caused by the AZ vaccine playing havoc with my immune system, it’s kinda complicated as I also have spms which can cause similar issues but the scan showed showed irregularities close to a bit of my brain that’s been previously rendered “mush” by ms lesions - it looked like the usual black blob of dead brain matter that I’ve seen before in scans but the consultant pointed out a new area of concern...bugger. The inflammatory markers in my blood are all raised quite significantly especially cpr and whilst my platelet count is down at under 200,000 it’s not of great concern at moment, I’ll get weekly blood tests to make sure it is on the rise.
Oh well........... got a bollocking for not raising my health issues immediately after receiving the vaccine back in mid February (I’m 48 btw) so that’s me suitably chastised as it was actually quite serious, we talked of iv steroids to quell my immune system back down but I’ve had enough of them previously and decided that as I’m slowly getting over it then weekly check ups will do for the time being.
At least I no longer need a 2nd vaccine shot as my over eager immune system has been churning out COVID antibodies like they’re going out of fashion, I’ve got loads to spare (apparently) so I’ll list bundles of them of the classifieds (joke btw.....they’re mine......all mine my precious.)
well done for keeping the humour going. sounds like a shitter mate. trite as it sounds i hope you're on the mend as far as you can be soon.